BREAKING: New Roy Morgan Poll – Luxon crashes National & Māori Party are the King/Queen Maker


As TDB has been pointing out, the Māori Party are the King/Queen Maker and the latest Roy Morgan Poll backs this up

National – 35% (down 4)

ACT – 11% (up 1)

Labour – 34% (up .5)

Greens – 10.5% (up .5)

Māori Party – 4% (up.1.5)

…as TDB argued, Luxon has hit his glass ceiling and National crashes 4 points while ACT and the Māori Party are at their highest ever levels.

Despite never ending negative mainstream media coverage of the Health crisis and attacks on the Government, Labour went up.

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Seymour is a far better politician than Luxon and he is finally reaping that harvest while Māori are watching the Right denigrate them over co-governance and are alarmed at the rising ocean of feral anti-Māori sentiment so are tactically voting to see Labour returned with an even stronger mandate for Māori.

Kiwis are egalitarian at heart. Key knew this and so always dressed down, but Luxon believes in prosperity religion so dimming his wealth would be a slight against Jesus. Luxon appealed to people’s pain in the cost of living crisis and then once he had manipulated that pain, flew to a holiday in Hawaii while his social media pretended he was in Te Puke.

Kiwi’s don’t like having their economic pain manipulated by a person who isn’t impacted by that economic pain while he suns himself in Hawaii.

Kiwi’s might be hurting economically but they aren’t stupid!

As TDB has been pointing out since the beginning off the year, 2023 will be fought on who the country fear’s most, a National/ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.

Any sense of triumphalism the Right may have had seems terribly misplaced.

How much of this poor people shit do I need to name and eat and how much of these clothes from the Warehouse do I need to wear before the sleepy hobbits of muddle Nu Zilind warm to me?

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  1. Here comes a Hanged/Hung parliament!

    When neither party and their partners can command 60+1 seats to be able to pass legislation.

    Wooh! Hoo!

  2. Come this time next year, when the much promised, much vaunted, much hyped plans of Luxon’s National Party are finally revealed and inevitably turn out to be a fizzer Labour will be back on 45% and National back under 30% where they belong.
    They are beyond hopeless led by yet another hopeless leader clearly out of his depth despite all the mentoring he’s been getting and clearly they have nothing to offer but to wheel out the tired old tax cuts policy once again.
    Hosking followers, being the sheep that they are, of course will nod at each other in blind agreement with everything he and Luxon says…..the rest of N.Z now know that they were conned by Key and his coterie of crooks will not be fooled again..

        • I do not think I have and I try not to indulge in personal attacks but I get tired of Keys government being called crooks and Luxon condemned because of his success in becoming wealthy. When did legally becoming successful become so bad .How many on the left would take an enormous pay cut to fulfill a dream?
          I am more inclined to have an arguement based on facts and at this point in the game I feel the facts show a government in denial and with no real plan going forward. I know you and others think differently and that is where I try to do my debating . The next 12 months are going to be an interesting period . May the best party win.

          • I think when you claim that others are 100 % wrong Trevor you open yourself up. Teachers have had a salary increase, houses are being built, personally have had a 10% increase, there has been a cost of living payment made, mental health facilities in a prison environment have been built, increase in minimum wage and benefits.
            No real plan going forward is a generalisation that fits your narrative. Plenty of things are happening and still in the pipeline. You will only see sensationalism in the media as they don’t sweat the small and medium stuff.
            I don’t care at all that Luxon is wealthy, good luck to him,but I do care that this government cares for all N.Zers. Just because he’s wealthy doesn’t make him an instant politician.
            Are the wealthy worse off under Labour? No!
            Are the less wealthy better off under Labour? Most definitely!
            Whether that transfers to votes as you day remains to be seen.
            And yes the next 12 months are going to be great viewing, first up, more of Tamaki’s money making protests.

            • it doesn’t matter how you cut it bert nothing has been done for bennies and the poor in general, the so-called increases were clawed back in reductions to other benefits as for the current payments to the middle classes bennies were deliberately excluded, on the strength of winter heating subsidy which wsas introduced to cover the disparity 2yrs ago…are labour suggesting that bennies and the poor are immune to inflation? cos that would be novel new economic theory.

              • We’ve been here before, the beenies I work with don’t see it as you do, they are grateful and imagine not getting a cost of living supplement under National but a $2 a week tax cut gagarin, you choose?

                • well bert all I can say is the bennies you ‘work’ with are exceptional if they saw any major increase in disposable income from either of LINOs sleight of hand ‘increases’
                  individual figures would be instructive. The figure of 3-4 dollars was common currency at the time AFTER THE CLAWBACKS.

                  • Actually I’d say your beenies are exceptional, the many I work with including those within mental health, are the norm, they don’t SEE CLAWBACKS, that you do.

          • Turn on the sprinklers Trevor. And get off the fence (or the slide) and say what you really think of Collins, and Muller and Bridges and that rental mogul guy from the church that is emigrating to Hawaii soon? Aloha!

            Say what you really think, to the tune of Barry Manilow’s “Can’t smile”

            Mallard, would be too obvious.
            Speaker would be too obvious.

            Your pseudonym “Trevor” just adds that little bit of “je ne sais quoi?”

            By the way, thanks for taking my advice on the Barry Manilow songs Trevor, an epic received-Mallardism, to try and cure the malady at Parliament Grounds, the same way malls got rid of ne’er-do-wells at malls”

            Maybe we need bank of 150 watt speakers playing Barry outside stores that have been ram-raided at least once?

            There were some sinister goings-on behind the scenes Trevor. Enjoy your new sinecure, and keep contributing here at TDB, I always enjoy your dry wit.

      • Yeah nah.
        But the way the Nat’s do leadership changes suggests Lyin’ Luxon may well not make it to Xmas without a political knife in the back, the way he’s going.

        And then the English Literature major currently struggling as the Nat’s Finance Spokesperson could have a go I suppose.

    • @ Grant. Sheep are extraordinary creatures. We shouldn’t draw an analogy between sheep and humans because despite sheep not having top front teeth to defend themselves with their only protection is to herd together, to be united, so to speak, against their predators. Which is more than can be said for First World capitalism indoctrinated humans. Not only that, but sheep don’t huddle together to hatch plans to drop other sheep in the shit for short term personal gain. I can say from observation though that when sheep are mustered into a mob one or two sheep will move forward, usually the strongest and fittest, to the outer edges of the flock and when they think the timings right, they’ll run like fuck for as far and as fast they can knowing full well that they’ll be caught up upon by what ever predator has them cornered and while they’re being savaged and devoured the rest of the mob will gallop off in the opposite direction in a shower of shit and a gale of farts, so not that unlike humans in that regard.
      Here’s a sheep that’s developed a slightly different approach to avoid being eaten. Going with the flow man.
      In my opinion, politics is dead in AO/NZ. We have no politics, like Balclutha has no soul. We have a few quaint pretences of politics, like voting and central governance but that’s less like politics and more like an American TV reality show. The players are merely entertaining themselves at our expense while we hope that by us doing the same thing over and over again we’ll get a different result.
      Luxon will be having a ball. Being the leader of the opposition will be the easiest gig he’s ever had and he won’t give a fuck what happens politically to us. After all, he’s the one on about $300 K plus perks. Not us.
      And they’re all the same predator. They chase us and we eventually get eaten. Here’s what we do. Instead of doing the same thing while expecting a different result, we do a different thing and fuck them up and the only way we can do that is by taking a different route with our money we give them.

    • Yep the feckless’ war on Te Reo along with the resuscitation of the covid cult has paid dividends. What you have to ask is how National still has 35% given how pathetic Te reo has been recently

      • People are starting to see the real Te Reo and my guess is many don’t like what they see. A poorly timed holiday in Hawaii (as timing is everything) with all the flooding, inflation and Covid deaths is not a good look and then Luxons’ trip overseas and he was bagging his own country another crucial mistake. And I believe he has been over confident with himself and his party polling high he thought he had it in the bag.

      • You mean why aren’t they still up at 39% more like it Frankie. Your poll predictions are not aligning with your original predictions Frankie.

  3. NZ First will the Kingmaker/Queenmaker according to the poll, despite calling NZ First “others” at 5.5%…I wonder if the Speaker trespassing Winston– will hurt Labour in 2023?

      • The word toast comes to mind Scotty, he is toast, perhaps his holiday in Te Puke I mean Hawaii has blurred his thinking.

    • Wading through shit on parliament grounds talking to people wearing tinfoil hats is more of a winner for Winston Natana?

      Luxon makes Muller and Brash look like a good option for a return shot at National Party leader, when Luxon says aloha to NZ for good, to live in Hawaii.

      The symbol on his arm looks like an appeal to the ex-Afrikaaners now living on the North Shore, so that should get a few more votes too. Especially Sour Kraut and Off White (regular NACTFans here at TDB)

      The photo of Aloha ‘sitting and eating shit with poor people bottom feeders, and wearing poor people bottom feeders’clothes from the Warehouse will never inspire the poor people bottom feeders to make more of their lives or persuade the sleepy hobbits bottom or even muddle feeders of Nu Zilind warm to him.

      At least he is wearing Warehouse stuff, that way The Warehouse business won’t be as “soft” as he claimed at his ‘Business Round Table’ think tank in London.

      His face says it all in the photo. I hate these fucking people. I hate this fucking job. Help me God!

  4. Te Puke Thunder is in the drivers seat now because as per usual. Labour fuck up again!

    Competency isn’t one of their strongest attributes.

    • @Tane/Male/Man, not Female/Woman/Maori
      You mean Competency like Luxon’s Facebook and Media team?

      This photo itself, in MB’s article, and Luxon’s countless foot-in-mouth-up-to-the-ankle brain-farts, makes him dead-man-walking (aka Aloha Luxon) as National Party NZ leader.

      National’s tax policy which benefits Luxon personally by $18,000 per year is hypocrisy and lost a few percentage points.
      No matter how much Aloha Luxon tries to mans-plain:
      7 houses, and proud of God for rewarding the Luxon families ‘s faith; a few percentage points lost!
      $18,000 in a tax scam a year, if the Nats with the support of ACT wins;
      “bottom-feeders comment!; a few more percentage points lost!
      National “won’t ban abortions” (when nobody expected that to even be an issue!! FFS); a few percentage points lost!
      calling NZ Businesses “soft”;
      in Hawaii instead of Te Puke. a few percentage points lost!
      supporting Botany against Canterbury (and rooting for Botany over Cantabs) just another few percentage points lost!
      Make sure to clip Aloha’s timecard when he leaves. a few percentage points won!

      Unscrew Aloha’s name from National Party Leader’s office. a few percentage points won!
      Pull the nameplate off and remove the blue tack; Status quo
      Recycle the blue-tack for the next Nat Leader (David Seymour); a few percentage points won!
      Tout this BTR (blue-tack-removal) as National’s Contribution to NACT’s blue-yellow-green Policy; a few percentage points won (ex-Greens who tried to oust James Shaw based on Hooten’s recommendation!

      National and ACT – closer than you think! Especially when David Seymour becomes leader, or very minimum deputy leader of National. So, that means no room for Shane Jones’s Party NZ First.

  5. I think anything could happen!

    But for the sake of the longer term running of NZ, can some one ask what sort of society NZ wants.

    Seen it all, a doctor who now identifies as trans, working in NZ, convicted for multiple sexual abuse on his/her patients, in denial and currently in a NZ prison!!!

    Seriously, out of the billions of people in the world, NZ keeps attracting these f**ker’s! Something is VERY wrong with NZ’s immigration criteria to assess good character, and select mentally stable people who can positively work in NZ without victimising others. (Maybe offshoring immigration to highly corrupt countries call centres and having woke committees everywhere setting bizarre policy, is not helping.)

    Exclusive: Doctor who stupefied then sexually assaulted patients deported to Malaysia

    This is on the back of the South African doctor in a mental facility after the alleged murder of her 3 kids and another doctor who was trained in NZ after moving here as a child who then goes on to murder a teenager before being convicted and committing suicide in a NZ prison.

    Meanwhile after a pandemic and 200,000+ applications for more bizarre, high needs choices to live in NZ we still haven’t got around to training more domestic doctors as NZ seems to prefer an identity based approach to medical selection rather than looking for those who are going to be stable enough and have a long period of supervised training in NZ and have good character, to do the job!

    NZ’s long term economic policy for decades now is to save pennies while creating billions of dollars in social disruption in NZ via a bums on seats, ‘identity’ based high needs people who are so enabled they seem to be empowered into their woke/criminal fantasies here, while denying victims safety in NZ.

    Even going to the doctor or mall is becoming a non safe place. In addition NZ seems to be leading a country with declining professional services and skills across the board.

    I think Natz will be worse, but is there anyone out to stop Labeen and the NZ media in their woke enablement which seems to be empowering many (in particular teens and youth) to do what ever they want. Ok Boomer, is starting to get more sinister.

    The trial for the brutal gutting and murder of Invercargill teenager Jack McAllister occurred in 2018 and was conducted by a group of woke warriors who decided McAllister was guilty of sexual harassment and as punishment, this team of woke warriors decided to trick him to a location and butcher him because you know, heteronormative white cis male patriarchy hashtag MeToo…

    You know normally NZ media would be all overs such a bizarre murder of a teenager, but weird, somehow nothing, teens killing unsafe teens is ok?????…….. NZ media is more interested in outraged headlines of cops who cry when verbally abused at the school gate.

  6. So. Tell me. Who are the biggest bludgers in the NZ economy? Because with todays latest figures, it doesnt seem to be the unemployed.

    ” Social welfare is the biggest recipient with $42.4b, followed by health ($26.7b).

    Under the social welfare umbrella, $19.5b is earmarked for superannuation – nearly as much as the whole education budget of $19.8b – followed by jobseeker support and emergency benefits at $3.4b.”

    • Here we go again, NACT deja-vue, @Tane/Male/Man, not Female/Woman/Human.

      “Bludgers”, really the battlecry of the NACT and the uber-right signalling a Mother of all Budgets by Nicola Willis (aka Ruth Richardson, but with more hair and less personality)

      “Bludgers” FFS, next it will be Cossacks dancing across our screens and feeds.

    • People should have to live and work in NZ half their lives to get free NZ super …. it is clear the government has not responded to globalism very well – whereas OZ saw what was going to happen and changed their welfare, election and citizenship rules, to make sure that newcomers could not automatically and quickly received OZ taxpayers hard earned taxes and influence OZ elections when they were not Australian citizens.

      In NZ, the cost of living payment is being paid to people who live and work overseas – likewise our pensions via easy NZ citizenship are being given out to people who don’t live in NZ most of the time, and have never worked here.

      So many scams of people the government thinks are in NZ but are actually not due to leaving on other passports, but still receiving benefits as seen by the cost of living payments. NZ citizens on one passport are caught immediately but if you are a dual national it is easy to appear to be in NZ but are not.

      Labeen seem determined to throw NZ’s citizens money away and more interested in impressing and bribing non citizens, non residents than than doing their job of improving NZer’s lives living and working in NZ! Fairness is not much of a priority. This is particularly disgusting with the amount of poverty we are experiencing and the lowering of education and health care to NZ citizens who are subsidising this ideology, incompetence and stupidity.

      Greens are now crying out for Samoans to be NZ citizens – thus more and more people around the world seem to be given NZ pensions due to woke identity issues while disabled people in NZ have their showers cut and people die on NZ health waiting lists. Thousands of Kiwi kids are growing up in hotels, but the Greens focus is on worrying about non NZ citizens and giving away free money to people who are not NZ citizens.

      Whose next to be given NZ citizenship who does not live or work here because the Greens virtue signalling and tone deaf to NZ poverty, think it’s a good idea?

  7. Yikes.
    If this is a repeatable trend going in to next year, the Australian population is going to go up by about 3 million.
    Be interesting to see if it’s an outlier or not.

  8. ” I think anything could happen ”

    Yep except any change to the economic status quo that causes so much misery and unfairness.

  9. I do not think I have and I try not to indulge in personal attacks but I get tired of Keys government being called crooks and Luxon condemned because of his success in becoming wealthy. When did legally becoming successful become so bad .How many on the left would take an enormous pay cut to fulfill a dream?
    I am more inclined to have an arguement based on facts and at this point in the game I feel the facts show a government in denial and with no real plan going forward. I know you and others think differently and that is where I try to do my debating . The next 12 months are going to be an interesting period . May the best party win.

  10. “Maori are watching the Right DENIGRATE THEM OVER CO-GOVERNANCE” – Yeah Right. I don’t support co-governance and I am not denigrating anyone. Apologies if this is ‘triggering’.

    • Yes Jason but didn’t Luxon say Maori do well under National however when your soooooo desperate to get back into power many will do and say almost anything. Luxons trip to Te Puke I mean Hawaai seems to have had a profound effect on his ability to get back on track made be just maybe deep down his heart is not truly into it and he’s appeasing others like his rich buddy John.

      • Can’t disagree with you there Pa, I’m just over those who use identity politics to try and brand opponents of co-governance as racists.

  11. The only chance of the Maori party going with National is without ACT being part of that government given Seymours separatism and outspoken views on Maori.

  12. Chris Luxon isn’t saleable like John Key was. John Key appealed to the everyday voter, then blew apart their brains by implementing narrow conservative policies and diminishing budgets in key areas such as health and education.

    Nicola Willis can’t sell herself either. She is supposed to be representing one of the two major political parties they we have in this country, yet she fails to inspire. It is sad indeed. We don’t need this. We’re trying to come out of three pandemic years, what? to be greeted by halfwits? Seriously, it’s not cool.

    The other alternative is Jacinda Ardern who has the necessary experience, knowledge, connections, power, intelligence, charm, dignity, poise, and dedication.

  13. Yes agree with ya Dan especially with your Jacinda comments. I think Bill E should have stayed for one more tilt at leadership I am no National supporter but I do believe it is important to have decent opposition to keep the incumbent in check. At the moment I cannot see anyone in National who fits good leadership BUT there will be someone out there they just have to find them. In the meantime National is shedding experience do they know something or are they simply deserting a sinking ship.


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