Right or Left? Two scenarios for political violence in NZ 2023 election

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
48
1514

I fear the combination of intense political polarisation, a steep economic depression and the explosion of disinformation via social media hate algorithms could generate political violence in the 2023 election.

RIGHT:

The Far Right in NZ

The immediate threat of political violence comes from the far right. The QAnon movement in NZ is disconnected from this dimension of reality, they believe in Sovereign Citizen Sherifs who are ’empowered’ to hang enemies of free people. They are fucking lunatics who are capable and philosophically compelled to commit an act of political violence.  Add to them far right white supremacist bad faith actors and Alt-Right extremists and you have radicalisation combining with fear grifters to generate a febrile landscape of existential fears that can only be combated by justified political violence.

Out of this cauldron of self loathing and projected cultural hate is the possibility of a lone wolf actor or small cell group committing an attack on a Politician.

 

LEFT:

If the threat from the Left breaches political violence thresholds, it will be generated because of a ratcheting up of protest responses to the extremism of a National/ACT Government attempting to implement hard right policy.

Let’s be very clear, ACTs call to strip the Treaty out of every law would start a race war.

Game it out:

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  • David Seymour cuts a deal with National in 2023 and launches its purge of every Maori political win since the Treaty was signed.
  • Shutting down every co-governance arrangement would provoke absolute outrage within Māoridom and spark a vast number of immediate legal cases which would jam down any legislative process as every single decision made after Parliament passed  the law ending co-governance would become challenged. Political protests would erupt around the country and local councils would find local resistance as Māori groups universally set up occupations of shared governance assets.
  • Likewise, abolishing Māori seats would ignite enormous protests, many of which would quickly escalate into violence. The UN would criticise NZ snuffing out indigenous voting rights and we would face global condemnation.
  • The New Government would then attempt to find anyone within Maoridom who would willingly negotiate new Treaty ‘provisions’ with them. No one within Māoridom would willingly negotiate these and so the New Government, while dealing with increasingly violent weekly protests in the street, would announce that they are universally negotiating these new provisions on behalf of Māoridom. The news that not only has the New Government ended co-governance and abolished the Maori seats but are also now redefining the entire Treaty by themselves inspires all out violent protest and the New Government respond with increasing use of special terror laws and paramilitary Police to keep a lid on the escalating fury within Māoridom at the loss of their political rights.
  • Increasingly global media attention is scathing towards the New Government.
  • Donald Trump calls the New Government ‘wise’.
  • While ending co-governance, abolishing Maori seats AND renegotiating the entire Treaty on their own, the New Government then announces that the Waitangi Tribunal is being ended. This causes an eruption of anger within Maoridom that manages to eclipse the current rage and entire regions are now in open revolt.
  • Before the New Government are even in a position to remove consultation processes, Maori customary rights and any Māori funding, the country is plunged into a full blown race war which the New Government are not able to control.
  • Vast chunks of the military refuse to open fire on a public demonstration after the New National/ACT Government order them to.

In this scenario, the threat of political violence from the Left is generated by protest actions. I see any political violence from the Left as reactionary, not premeditated.

 

CONCLUSION:

Ultimately the only winner here is the domestic state intelligence apparatus. The sudden need to police and use mass surveillance to control and monitor internal political dissent in the wake of an attack on a politician from far right protagonists or escalating protest movements against far right policy will be immense.

We haven’t seen radicalisation like this on a mass basis before and with economic conditions set to only get far worse, the triggers for political violence extremism are possibly already smouldering.

 

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48 COMMENTS

  1. David Seymour – ACT Leader — is Nga Puhi…I do not believe he will crush his own people — what he is aiming to do is to do is ask some hard questions, such as, Maori Seats – still relevant?, Should Waitangi Tribunal cases go on more than 10 years (Wai262 and Nga Puhiv claims as examples)…

    • The left has issues with ‘diversity’ on the right. It is the incorrect ‘diversity’. ‘Diversity’ is only good and benevolent when it is championed by the left and promoted by the lefts diversity quota picks.

      • Reactionary Bratwurst spot on…Diversity cuts both ways…Gordon Coates, former Prime Minister, was a National Party politician, and was NZ’s first, and only Maori Prime Minister — from 1925 to 1928…fluent in Maori (and English), had kids to a Maori women…

      • The Weimar Woke Wellington WePublic will fail to ‘fire”.
        They’ve all turned into fat cats in such a short time. By gorging themselves with meaty salaries and houses and other shit. Not even a pig would get a look in their pen.

        When it’s time for them to get out of the office or home office, they’ll all be too fat and lazy and think they can run a social media campaign again! Not this time. SM & MSM have taken a hit since covid lockdowns have disappeared. People try to avoid it like a plague.
        The Weimar Woke WePublic will be complacent and sit in front of the tv and laptop firing out orders to their bubble troops who will the do the same and rely on that to do the trick .
        Complacency is the ‘C’ word that will kill the LINOs.

        • Yes agreed the woke are fat cats and are way to comfortable in there Wadestown palaces to come out and fight the far right. Violence by the woke somehow I don’t think so. I doubt they would know one end of a gun from the other.

    • On this question I believe you are right to defend Seymours right to ask questions if the status quo is still relevant. In days gone by Maori Seats were necessary as the parliment was a new concept but now there are so many Maori in parliament as part of the normal voting system seperate seats are just a sign of racism.
      Labour will never vote to do away with them as they can usually depend on most of them going to the left though I do not understand why as Labour has done little for the advancement of Maori except lip service.

        • ‘Proto-fascist(s)’ are what they are. In other words lite-weight Wokesters.

          • the right are every bit as snowflakey as the woke….slavery is forced relocation, whaaaa whaaaa schoolbooks, whaaaa whaaaa whhhaaaa jacinda is stalin. whaaaa whaaaaa wahhhaaaa CRT…..
            and JUST PLAIN OLD WHHHHAAAAAAA WHAAAAAA WHAAAAAAA, don’t understand it so don’t like it.

            both sides are cry babies who can’t sustain their arguments.

  3. The belief that National will be no more than a mere cypher and will simply implement Act’s manifesto without any of its own policy is not credible. Neither will the public believe that to be the case. Any more than Labour will simply implement all Green policy.

    Obviously the smaller parties (whichever side is in government) will get some wins. But the major party will get the bulk of its manifesto through.

    So what would Act actually get?

    I would say education, which means charter schools and much more accountability. They will get economic reform, especially around regulation, competition and employment law. They will get some part of justice policy. They will get defence and 2% spending of GDP.

    What will they get on iwi issues?

    Probably not much that is not already National Party policy. National is hardly going to want to stoke up a massive level of civil disobedience.

  4. But there’s no political ‘Right’ of ‘Left’… I thought you’d have come to understand that by now.
    Politically, all we have is a management system that some regard as ‘ politics’ but really, it’s simply a mechanism exploited by a handful of hyper rich multi billionaires to enable the farming of we, the people for our time alive on earth for the betterment of those doing the farming. That, is all we have. Voting is a sham, generally, we’re living under the guise of freedom while clearly imprisoned within debt tombs and it’s all a scam, our lives are about taking what’s given by them to us and frankly, what we’re being given is a bit shit. A fence to live within and we can eat all the grass we like. Until, that is, we run out of grass. Then we’re fucked and they won’t care.
    The USA’s about to lose 100 million people to global heating, the UK’s boiling as they run out of water and many parts of Europe are either cooking or are at war and that’s only the beginning of the new normal and yet the freak show that flourishes above and beyond our influence are banging on to extract more oil and gas.
    Farmers? ( Actual ones. Not metaphorical ones. ) You must watch this. Park up your judgements and sit down with a cuppa and watch this. Serious.
    Ok. He’s not an arrogant bully wearing a blue and white check shirt with an upturned collar and working for the likes of Wrightsons but bear with.
    Russell Brand.
    YouTube.
    “This week I spoke with Vandana Shiva about the current global protests, such as the Dutch farmers, and the historical push to curb the production of healthy clean food in place of more profitable GMO produce.”
    https://youtu.be/sCKtwqtdctM

  5. Farmers !
    And this too. This is great. Check this out.
    Remember that Wellington parliament lawns occupation debacle?
    I reckon that was a staged performance by a Wellington political hit squad to discredit the few farmers there and the many who watched on. The fuckers who made the most noise, threw bricks and set fire to stuff were a hit squad. I guarantee it. Next time? Farmers have the ultimate power here so it’s in the interests of all those who exploit you that you remain down trodden. Everyone signs in with verifiable ID then everyone signs out.
    Russell Brand.
    YouTube.
    “Mass protests in Sri Lanka are happening as farmers continue to protest in the Netherlands and Germany. Is it really a coincidence that these are happening at the same time? ”
    https://youtu.be/CA_Phpz4woY

    • But did not the Hit squad CB pay the price of charges through the court or was that an act aswell. Or was that a sacrifice by the hit squad aka the green peace protestors???

  6. Well.. we a probably coming full circle on what Damien Grant said, ‘every action has a reaction’.. ’cause and effect’.

    He aptly reminded us this physics principle applies to ALL things, politics included!

    If National/Act do form the next government there could well be a reversing of many policies and directives, particularly where Labour has manufactured consent [media advertising] rather than taking the country with them through reasoned debate.

    Also if National/Act form the next government and violence ensues from extremists, I imagine the government of the day will rightly react to restore order.

    Troughers don’t like being removed from the trough! My hope is for a peaceful transition of power if/when Labour lose. State Media do have 300+ million in merger money coming down the pike. As such the media troughers are VERY motivated to keep Labour in power.

    State Media could very well be the ones inciting violence (in a clandestine fashion) leading into next year’s election.

    • damn, you really need to travel further than the gates of your gated community, comparing NZ to Sri Lanka? really?

        • Bob the fucking knob, hasn’t got a fucking clue Sri Lanka more akin to National and Key’s reign. How many times have you used you critical thinking other than none. Standalonecomplex you are wasting your time sadly.

        • never. but comparing us to them is idiotic.

          lets compare our civil wars shall we? oh wait…

          population? Size of nation ? politics?

          perhaps you can relay to us the similarities, you know make a statement that clears up, using specifics, of how NZ and Sri Lanka are so similar?

  9. I trust that Luxon who is learning te Reo will not purge Maori gains. Co governance might go but only the tribal elites and intellectuals will be upset. The majority of Maori are more focused on smaller practical issues ranging from feeding their whanau up to paying off their $1m mortgage.

  10. The person at the bottom right now isnt getting ahead at all, this isnt what you would expect from the left, so if this is the new left, I dont see it any different to the right so its not going to matter who we elect the average person down the bottom isnt going to see any benefit.

  11. Gosh Bert that’s impressive were you a specialist batsman or bowler or an all rounder?
    I pick you as short run up spin bowler or were you like your namesake Bert Sutcliffe a left handed batsman?

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