What is most concerning decision makers right now is the bleak future consumers and producers are predicting DESPITE wages being high and unemployment low.
It hints that the last 14 years of central banks printing money to offset a global financial collapse in 2008 has built a hollow illusion of growth that collapses in upon itself the millisecond normal financial parameters are attempted.
The ocean of debt is about to find true gravity as interest rates are forced up in a desperate attempt to stop supply side inflation dynamics, which of course will only make the situation worse.
Right now nursing and hospitality are screaming to throw open the immigration flood gates to allow offshore labour to prop up their exploitation models.
Nursing requires cheaper offshore options and hospitality is built upon exploiting overseas backpackers.
If the Government cave into these demands, the unemployment rate will suddenly explode as multiple industries fall back on cheaper labour options and they sack kiwi workers for cheaper offshore options.
In 2019, 4million tourists visited NZ as part of our exploitative hyper tourism industry – those numbers will never come back while China’s zero covid policy stands and while new Covid variants sweep around the world.
Hospitality servicing hyper tourism is dead and if we are to make real progress on more teachers, nurses and Drs, we need to offer free education in return for bonding their service post graduation.
If Labour give into demands for open immigration, the unemployment rate will explode alongside the rentals market and the Government will face the worst of all words for quick fix immigration solutions that will make things worse!
If National win 2023, they will simply implement John Key’s pump and dump policy of open door immigration to inflate growth rates while causing enormous stress on the groaning underfunded infrastructure and send rents soaring. This will cause enormous social dislocation and a rise in race relation tensions.
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The migration tectonics are going to start a civil conflict at some point… most likley after a fuck tonne of foreigners vote for bottom feeder Dee Luxon and his seven houses.
Unfortunate but true..
Free education? How about affordable housing?
Here’s an idea. What about asking those on the dole to fill the vacancies. Better still don’t ask, make em!
That is not the done thing under Jacinda’s obligation-free kindness regime.
60% of the unemployed are sickness beneficiaries and disabled so youre a typical tory and will send them to work for low wages.
Investment, training and maintaining livable incomes for a local workforce was abandoned decades ago.
In the cases of horticulture, tourism, fishing and aged care, deliberately. Kiwis were driven away by falling rates of pay and worsening conditions never to return.
Governments have fallen for this scam and in the case of National they embraced and accelerated it. Hundreds if not thousands of businesses have grown and expanded under this rort at the expense of the prosperity and dignity of our own people.
Time for a reality check. What is needed is
less tourists. Less international students. Less exploititive businesses.
Nailed it Jack!
Great comments Jack. Spot on.
Damn Brom!
You stole my line….I was going to say that. Now you get to enjoy the flak and the leftie backlash, not me.
I see the Leftorium has already started with a predictable response.
So you’re one of those selfish types who only think about yourselves and your own wealth, well it might come as a surprise sunshine that employees also have to think about a profit margin otherwise a job isnt worth doing.
Employees don’t do bookkeeping with profit margins. Or loss and profit for that matter. Or chasing invoices for that matter. Or dealing with employee issues. Or having to find fill-in’s when sunshine precious employees walk off the job, or not even pitch up. Or chasing up suppliers. Or dealing with the taxman for that matter. Or hocking your house to make business survive for that matter. Anything else Sunshine condescending fucker?
None of that should scare a true entrepreneur..
I can see why you have employee issues, you’re an arsehole.
Sour Krout, employees pay rent, buy food take their children to the doctor or the dentist, pay the power bills etc.etc. Deal with inflation on minimum wage ( less than minimum wage if it was up to your lot ) Sunshine
Gosh Mark that so silly,
So predictable.
Talk to anyone who employs people and you will find that 3-4% of people are unemployable. Which is where we are at. I am sorry but the hard fact is that this group is unreliable and unmotivated. Whether you are a small business or a large factory in today’s economic climate you cannot carry workers who are not productive or worse threaten the existing productivity or viability of your business. This situation is about to get much worse as the covid kids reach working age. If our best plan is to achieve a 70% regular attendance rate at high schools we are setting up this generation to fail in even more ways. Sadly, the best hope is that a large proportion of the missing children who vanish from high school have left to help support their struggling families and are working some low paid unrewarding job. The alternative is that they have dislocated from a society that has not protected and nurtured them and will reappear in the statistics no one likes.
Also my guess is that you have never actually employed anyone. You simply cannot fire workers and replace them with “cheap overseas labour” not unless you want to spend all your time and money at the employment court.
The desperate Workers Wanted and Hiring Now signs are out everywhere. This Labour government is using covid to restrict the flow of willing migrant workers. It does not understand nor care about the problems of business owners and would threaten their viability to force the employment of people who have been failed by the policies and practices of successive governments.
I rarely hear people complaining how they can’t get a coffee or B&B, but do hear a lot of people can’t get into hospital or ED now. What is the priority?
The issue is NZ is short of medical staff due to not training enough of them (doctor uni places are limited to 539 per year, always massively oversubscribed) and then after 7 – 15 years of training – not paying them enough.
We get migrants in this industry but then they leave, meanwhile the hospitals are full of non medical people, admins, support workers, – doesn’t work because we need more qualified nurses and doctors.
If NZ refuses to train enough and can’t retain good people, that is why there is the problem!
The many hospital problems is a right wing tory Natz media beat up. Any news journalist or talk back raver can get a disgruntled tory spokesperson to make comments on TV. All the TV and radio news seems to dredge someone up each day seeking funding for this and that. I have spent a lot of time at hospitals in last two years and couldn’t fault them.
Yes very well put Peter H
No doubt there is a group who aren’t bright enough or have the reliability skill to do a modern job. However, keeping the immigration gate closed means wages in all those higher functioning jobs will go up and employers will have to be smarter about capital investment to increase productivity instead of importing fresh plane loads of immigrants who settle for any low wage plus citizenship workers.
Those who were expressed lane residency because they brought in capital. Tended to employ their own ethnicity. Who were expressed here under an I’ll thought out employment scheme. Simply because they were cheaply exploited
in your ‘demand employment economy’, are you going to embrace a toilet cleaning job at minimum rate because some self-entitled arsehole thinks toilet cleaning is more important than your current employment?
yea brom give that cripple in a wheelchair a mop and bucket make nz great again….
Those jobs that sit empty would be filled if employers paid enough, most of them are seasonal so the employee also has to consider accommodation options because at the end of the season they could be left without a place to come back to so the only option is to retain what you have while away doing a seasonal job, great if you have a campervan or something but most of those who’re currently unemployed get means tested so severely they cant even have a bit of savings to even think of such a venture.
Keep the immigration gates closed and suddenly employers will find enough cash to attract and train the over 100,000 unemployed and 200,000 under employed.
Yesterday I saw the back of a tradie van permanently sign written with “experienced roofers wanted”. As long as Labour has the trade training and apprentice subsidies in place there will be more experienced kiwi roofers in no time.
Stop advocating for that old failed model
“could” LMAO
I believe there are 180k people currently on the “job seeker” benefit.
Just what sort of jobs are these people “seeking?” Clearly not in hospitality, house keeping, construction, healthcare, agriculture or horticulture or fairly much any sector seeking to import labor.
Carmel Sepoloni must ask that question and get these people off the “job seeker” benefit and into these jobs.
The alternative is to bring people from off shore to do this work, and thus add to the capacity problems we have. Bringing people in to build houses for the people we brought in to build the houses is not bright. But paying people to look for work but never getting employed is even dumber.
simples cliff house and pay them..
Why is it Carmel Supeloni’s job? Surely it’s the employer’s job to get out there to attract and train these workers who have been neglected or scrap heaped for the last thirty years when it suited employers, National and Roger Douglas. Keep the gate closed. What’s good for local workers is good for the country (and Labours vote tally).
Why Carmel Sepoloni?
The policy settings are clearly wrong !!
Settings that allow 180k people to be on a benefit supposidlly seeking work and leave esential vaccancies unfilled such that we need to import workers to fill those vaccancies.
The employers advertise, The “job seekers” dont apply!
Its not pay, its illegal to not pay properly today.
Its motivation to work verses not work
@Brom
What vacancies? The ones created by sacking local workers in return for low paid migrants? Those people, the ones being sacked for because $21.75 is too high a rate for the boss to sustain?
The ones that cannot be filled because hyper tourism is dead?
Or are you talking of the zero hour indentured servitude the multinationals offer?
So many vacancies.
So few morals.
“Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day.
Teach a man to fish and he will exploit his fellow man for the great glory of fiat currency.”
Labour or National; we’re screwed either way!
Martyn is absolutely correct about the central banks’ money printing to paper over the cracks and avoid a debt-led collapse of the economy.
But ‘extend and pretend’ economic management cannot be maintained forever.
Unfortunately pump and dump is our only option as poor as it is. The alternative is end up like Zimbabwe and South Africa where anyone that can – leaves.
Sri Lanka has just declared bankruptcy – they won’t be the last.
No please Frankie, no more two plus three Allans!
Hahaha or ‘van to westhavens’
LOL. They are trying to escape a “co-governance” country. We’ll be lucky to import Fernandos and De Silva’s now.
Yet over the years we have imported every one and sundry whilst forgetting our own Frankie.
Sir Lanka went bankrupt by following the economic policies of neoliberlism
Bullshit. 60% of the seats and the president/PM are socialists. This is yet another failed socialist state. And you can’t even blame Uncle Sam for this meltdown.
but you can blame a totally corrupt family based oligarchy. frank….
Yes the family of socialist ideals.
see my post above bob the last
You really have no idea what Socialist is..
actually lex I think panzer-boi knows full well but like many on the right facts physically hurt his frontal lobes.
I am not sure if the biggest tax cuts in history in Srilanka is done by a socialist government. This is a one party government , now no government because they are fleeing a sinking country on a sinking ship, probably with employees wages crammed into their many suitcases.
Talk to anyone who employs people and you will find that 3-4% of people are unemployable. Which is where we are at. I am sorry but the hard fact is that this group is unreliable and unmotivated. Whether you are a small business or a large factory in today’s economic climate you cannot carry workers who are not productive or worse threaten the existing productivity or viability of your business. This situation is about to get much worse as the covid kids reach working age. If our best plan is to achieve a 70% regular attendance rate at high schools we are setting up this generation to fail in even more ways. Sadly, the best hope is that a large proportion of the missing children who vanish from high school have left to help support their struggling families and are working some low paid unrewarding job. The alternative is that they have dislocated from a society that has not protected and nurtured them and will reappear in the statistics no one likes.
Also my guess is that you have never actually employed anyone. You simply cannot fire workers and replace them with “cheap overseas labour” not unless you want to spend all your time and money at the employment court.
The desperate Workers Wanted and Hiring Now signs are out everywhere. This Labour government is using covid to restrict the flow of willing migrant workers. It does not understand nor care about the problems of business owners and would threaten their viability to force the employment of people who have been failed by the policies and practices of successive governments.
Yep if parents can’t organise to get their children to school by 9am each day, how are those children as young adults going to organise themselves to be at work each day at 8am?
The lack of education is one issue but the lack of personal discipline and motivation largely consigns this group to perpetual benefit dependancy and all of the disavantage that comes with that dependancy.
Another factor is the declining fertility rate. The below quote from Stuff via Academic Paul Spoonley.
“Over the past decade, New Zealand’s fertility rate has plummeted. It now sits around 1.6 children per woman, on average – a decrease of around 20 per cent in the last decade, and well below the replacement rate of 2.1 – the average number of children each woman needs to have for a population to replace itself in the long term.
In many ways, this is the consequence of undeniably positive social change. Contraceptives are more readily available. Women have more choice when it comes to education and work. Teen pregnancies have dropped off a cliff.
But there are also pitfalls. With an ageing population, who will look after us? Who will pay taxes and bolster up the workforce? How much do we want to rely on a steady flow of migrants in order to keep society ticking over?”
Martyn’s fears are likely correct, but we also have structural problems regarding our population. Japan, Germany, Singapore and others have had declining birth rates for decades and NZ has joined them. “one and done–or none” is the new gens attitude to having kids as Spoonley puts it.
Ultimately we will need migrant workers, but only if they are properly treated and paid.
Add to that, an MYOB survey on Newshub this morning, extrapolates that 200,00 people are leaving the country and 1,000,000 are considering leaving. So, with a falling birth rate, where does that leave us……
Long-term that certainly has to be the strategy. We can’t be isolated New Zealand that ignores demographic changes. In particular, at some time we’ll have to think about creating immigration pathways from Africa. Currently it’s incredibly difficult for people from poorer countries to come here (visas) and have their qualifications recognized.
Raising children is expensive (apparently costing around $265K to the age of 18) & people have to be optimistic enough to hope for a better future for their child, when planning to bring a child into the world, and this leads to people delaying having children or deciding not to have children at all. Increased education levels also see a reduction in birth rate.
https://www.informedinvestor.co.nz/how-much-does-it-cost-to-raise-a-child/
NZ (still) just wonders why productivity is so low in NZ as another 200,000 non English speaking baking/other assistants and their families hit our shores to compete with the other 500,000 baking assistants to hit our shores a few years ago (and suddenly ‘disappear’ from the industry), while they can’t get qualified people like nurses and doctors and teachers to stay and keep working these massive shifts with more and more new patients.
“By the end of this year, the country will have more new residents than any other year on record.”
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/05/almost-200-000-people-apply-for-new-fast-track-residency-visa.html
No one is going to invest in high tech plant and machinery if they can get a short term result every year by making groups of people work cheaply 7 days a week, 60+ hours and live in the middle of nowhere.
Banks are huge benefiters from mass immigration with few criteria.
“By the end of this year, the country will have more new residents than any other year on record.”
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/05/almost-200-000-people-apply-for-new-fast-track-residency-visa.html
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/labour-crisis-anz-boss-urges-govt-to-loosen-immigration-settings/HTHIWNNP4MTD3HDPP33P6CJB7A/
ANZ NZ profit up 44 per cent to $1.92 billion
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/anz-nz-profit-up-44-per-cent-to-192-billion/M5HZNIGQOGZUQPKNKBW3MSVY5E/
Is ANZ Bank – a wonderful corporate citizen. (Sarcasm)
ANZ fined $10 million for fees charged to customers
https://fxnewsgroup.com/forex-news/regulatory/anz-fined-10-million-for-fees-charged-to-customers/
Commission obtains a further $29.4 million for ANZ customers after responsible lending breach
https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2020/commission-obtains-a-further-$29.4-million-for-anz-customers-after-responsible-lending-breach
ANZ fined $280,000 by High Court for misleading customers over credit card insurance policies
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/anz-fined-280000-by-high-court-for-misleading-customers-over-credit-card-insurance-policies/KIQOYGJNOBWTDM6MHJ6Y324YCY/
Trial for trio accused of laundering dirty money through ANZ and structuring transactions
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/trial-for-trio-accused-of-laundering-dirty-money-through-anz-and-structuring-transactions/7CTXSL7FPECWASYXLK3CJADURA/
Sir John Key sold beach house to exiting ANZ boss David Hisco: ‘It was a transparent issue’
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113553059/key-sold-beach-house-to-hisco-it-was-a-transparent-isue
Panama Papers ‘whistleblower’ issues statement, hits out at NZ Prime Minister John Key over Cook Islands; Says income inequality one of the defining issues of our time
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/81460/panama-papers-whistleblower-issues-statement-hits-out-nz-prime-minister-john-key-over
Former PM Sir John and his wife Bronagh sold the Parnell mansion for $23.5 million in 2017 to a buyer reportedly out of China, but neighbours have said they were yet to see anyone move in since the sale.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sir-john-keys-former-parnell-mega-mansion-sits-empty-and-neglected/JILMLPHL2BGZJTBD5CQ7NHAG5E/
I believe there are plenty of people out there who can work, people just need to be given a chance many people don’t have confidence and many need upskilling and quality time put into them. The problem is many businesses don’t have much time. As for Nurses we need to lock them in other wise they come here get citizenship and bugger of to Australia (for bigger wages) who have done very well from our country. We need to look at our population projections and train the appropriate numbers needed allowing for those who will leave. We cannot go back to letting in thousand of immigrants to exploit we should also be utilizing our prison population some of them can work and earn money.
And didn’t the 90 day trial solve this?
One hell of a lot of corruption in that lot saveNZ.
Yes Bert. Key is one dodgy bastard. The ANZ also has questionable standards to put it mildly. In Malaysia a bank they majority owned and staffed by ANZ personnel took loads of money in the 1 MDB scandal. They knew the money was dirty and did nothing
How about restructuring the entire economy to focus on Housing! You know, to build 10,000 houses a year for say 10 or 20 years.
John Albert Lee did it 70+ years ago just to piss his Australian boss off! Who then realised what a great idea it was and stole JA Lees thunder!
You can never trust those bloody ozzies!
Absolutely, housing first and so much cheaper when combined with a free education appprenticeship model via a MoW type model. Then wider free education for core and shortage skills.
Yup. On-the-job training is the only program that is proven to work.
Get them out of the classroom and give people hands-on experience.
Let’s stop this dumbing down of the populace and start being a more practical less service sector-orientated economy. Less information for information sake nonsense.
It’s working out quite expensive to build $760,000 houses for NZ’s growing low waged and unemployed – maybe try to get more people who are not working into work, and then have a higher standard of care for those who can’t work such as physically disabled people. Having mass immigration pushing more low waged workers, one pay check/accident away from poverty and lowering wages and competition, is not working out very well.
I think that the student loans scheme is crippling the very people we need to serve us in the health sector. Id go further than just free retraining and progressively wipe student debt for those who are curenntly working in the sectors in NZ we need. Currently many low income health workers will face what I have just seen in helping with others tax returns such as a part-time sole parent in the health sector who spent 5 years qualifying ; The extra $5,000 she earned over $42,700 has cost her a loss from tax of $875, a claw back for working for families of $1340, repayment student loan of $600,accommodation supplement loss $1250.
Her total student loan repayment on all income over $20,000 is $ 3240. Why does govt not pay off this debt each year she contributes to the health of NZ?
Good idea for those already penalised. And end the cycle by going back to free training while in employment with transferable bonding. They all get a wage earlier, pay tax earlier and get a life earlier which was typical in the 70’s.
the intent as always is to hold wages down, I mean god forbid an NZ business should need to pay a living wage to a kiwi….god blast yer eyes sirrrah.
can’t afford to pay a wage, you’re not a viable business, end of.
@Gagarin
Damn straight on that one.
Yep the days of English’s and Nationals low wage economy are gone.
All our skilled staff are leaving for other countries because employers here dont want to pay for skills.
The people here face expenses that makes those jobs simply not worth doing.
It started under National, the skill level of migrants was reduced so now they compete directly with kiwis but the difference is kiwis have a benefit system to fall back on whereas immigrants dont.
Employers want migrants so they can exploit their skills for less than they pay kiwis.
This is what needs to change.
If National win 2023, they will simply implement John Key’s pump and dump policy of open door immigration to inflate growth rates
Yep. Partly because they’re still into thinking that you can’t have “Free Trade” without having it in humans as well. See also ACT because they’re “pure” in their economics. See also the likes of Bob Jones who want the local slackers to be punished by hard-working Asians and Indians.
But mainly because National have no fucking idea how to actually make our economy grow so instead they’ll go for this. Pretty easy to boast about 3% GDP growth when you’re growing the population by 2% per .
Mind you, with 200,000 approved residents this year I can’t say that Labour is much different.
Brom, not sure how we would enforce compulsory working for the dole.
Just give everyone a UBI, then we can all be on the dole ! Without the stigma and loss of self esteem.
Only a fool would work for the usual narcissistic Kiwi boss who’s ego is bigger than Putin on coke. The deluded wankers can fuck off. I will either work for myself or not at all. I am not prepared to be used and abused no more.
Not many whi you call a fool are in your privileged position. Let me know what you do for a living so I can be sure never to call you. Your abrasive attitude will come through in your work.
How about a simple resolution. For every imported person the business employing them has to provide new accommodation with parking space. Then add on health insurance at a latter date
nice idea toddy add a fee toward infrastructure and you may have a plan for limited numbers.
Yep. If we go back to the old model then we learned nothing.