NATIONAL: 38%
LABOUR: 32%
ACT: 9%
GREENS: 10.5%
NZF: 4%
TOP: 1.5%
Maori Party: 2%
The latest Roy Morgan Poll tells us 3 things.
The first is that it is highly unlikely Labour will win an MMP majority in 2023.
The second is that if NZ First is polling 4% this far out from an election, then Winston will almost certainly get them 5% on election night.
The third thing is that in light of those first two things, the Māori Party and Green Party should be meeting right now because come election night 2023, Labour may well need the Greens AND the Māori Party to form a majority Government.
One of the reasons why Labour have not been able to bring about transformative change is because they had no 100-day legislative agenda when they won. The Greens and Māori Party should meet right now and put together the framework for negotiating a united front of bottom lines when Labour come a calling after election day 2023.
A 5 point ‘People’s Mandate’ agenda negotiated between the Māori Party and the Greens with a focus on passing them in the first 100 days of a third term Labour Government would drive voters to them and create the argument for a genuinely transformative change agenda.
ACT have already told National a co-governance referendum is their bottom line for the 2023 election, it’s time the Māori Party and Greens become equally strategic and start using MMP to gain real material changes for the people they claim to champion.
A Labour/Green/Māori Party could be the most progressive Government in NZ history.
First published on Waatea News.
One of the other reasons Labour did not bring about transformative change is because the leadership are so conservative and afraid of change that might upset voters, doing nothing was always the preferred option!
Another reason is the talent pool of MP’s is non existent but…
The one exception is Willie Jackson, a man with a plan and the drive, which when factored in explains why their shadowy co-governance plans seem to be steaming along!
The leadership of LINO is conservative??
Every single LINO MP (the leadership included) voted for the Conversion Practices legislation that criminalizes any attempt to dissuade gender dysphoric kids from embarking on a journey of surgical mutilation, sterilization, and life-long dependence on artificial hormones.
What sort of conservative does that?
The leadership of LINO is promoting a radical break with representative democracy, in the form of “co-governance” of many of our institutions with tribal elites.
What sort of conservative does that?
If what you say is true about Willie why hasn’t he and the Maori caucus who combined have big numbers actually pushed the government to do something about housing and poverty, their people suffer more than anyone else around these things.
I think there are a couple of decent MPs (I don’t vote for them and probably never will again) David Parker and Little, he maybe struggling with the health portfolio but we all know it has been and remains serious underfunded. Megan Woods is useless on housing and Poto well less said the better.
Good point Michal and a complete mystery to me.
On one hand we have the so called big issues, well traversed in public like health, housing, transport and crime where the respective ministers just go through the motions, led by their ministries failing to achieve much of anything positive. They seem to have no idea why they are there.
Then with big issues kept well away from the public eye we have Willie writing the script and ploughing on toward his objectives.
It’s like two completely different governments in one, the public one full of incompetence but twist and turn to cover it up, the other staying well out of the limelight and absolutely competent.
Honestly, from the PM down, Maori caucus excluded, it’s like a bunch of auto cue readers fronting the TV news. Didn’t write any of it, no idea what they’re supposed to be talking about, just the face in front of the camera.
I agree with above approach, particularly if Te Pāti Māori keeps on its current track. Green and Māori should be the mediums to drive change via Parliamentary politics in 2023 and 2026 as voting power shifts from boomers to new gens.
(n.b. not all boomers are selfish graspers! some opposed Rogernomics vigorously from the outset. And reflexive boomer haters might like to update themselves on the advent of Elder Poverty which is now definitely a thing, particularly for women. 60 somethings and beyond are flatting or living in meagre camper vans etc.)
NZ Labour Caucus will not like such an accomodation, but hey they managed to squander what was likely a once in a generation opportunity with an absolute MMP majority.
Finally, if people at TDB really want to keep a lid on the Natzos and ACToids, then stop dumping on the Greens from a great height. You do not have to like your allies but at least see the strategic and tactical necessities. It is time consuming to start and register new political parties as many have found out over the years–ROC or Mauri Pacific anyone?
(n.b. #2; there are no anti capitalist parties in the NZ Parliament, essentially all of them are “cross class” and effectively or actively support the nearly 40 year long neo liberal consensus including Reserve Bank Act, State sector Act etc. which enable the Wellington bureaucrats to put their spanners in the works of anything much that is useful for the working class.
Rolling back and retiring the neo liberal state has to become a key political demand along with State House mega build and the other key points many of us can recite.
Lol. Labour will be flat out having a 3 in front of their number come next year’s election. Individual MPs will be desperately trying to hold their seats and an angry sheeple who have seen their covid cult property gain evaporate and then some won’t want anything to do with progressive policies.
Gang-related crime will be through the roof and poor man’s Gordon Brown will be fighting both the Maori squad and Angry and his union mates (Wood) in an increasingly divided caucus.
If Te Reo Luxon doesn’t get a commanding win then something weird has happened.
And when he gets that commanding win Frankie, everything will be fixed in 100 days right? The great deliverer and all that.
If the Green + Māori Party manifesto dream of bomber is realised it’ll ensure Labours loss in the next election.
There’s far more people who think they’re toxic and dangerous than there are who think this is a good idea. Labour shackled to this far left woke lunacy would wither and die electorally.
Why did Helen Clark work so hard to keep the Greens at arms length?
You are correct. If middle NZ think there is a chance that the Greens and Maori party will have some sort of power after the next election, they will recoil in horror. Labour had their chance to truly be transformational. To suggest that giving them a third term to achieve this when they haven’t looked like being that during the first two, is fantasy.
Because she hated them that is why. Clark was a big neocon.
Can you imagine the level of toxic narcissism in a meeting with the Greens and the Maori Party!
So much concentrated nastiness in a small space without the moderating influence of normal people; they might reach a critical mass and spontaneously react, exploding in a burst of dark energy.
🙂
Plus, one of the Maori MPs is reportedly a MAN, this is going to be a problem.
I think the Greens are done really, very sad but useless co-leaders.
The Maori party well watch this space, I know lots of people who intend to vote for them. They have the best climate change policy of any of the parties.
I can imagine having witnessed National for the past few years, Bridges, Muller, Luxon and the evil present evil of Judith Collins. The level of toxic narcissism in their caucus meetings would be beyond comprehension. The next round of dirty politics will be a little lesser without Bridges but Collins is still there, filled with more toxicity, lies and vile. As you say so much concentrated nastiness in a small space without the moderating influence of normal people; Fuck when will they get a normal people involved, sorry they have one and one only, Shane Reti. They have combusted for the past 6 years and now believe the divine deliver has arrived. I agree, covid arrived and bought with it right wing extremists, anarchists, in the form of parliament protesters. National could do with a few of those normal people.
The three waters legislation might be indicative of the sort of 100 day plan that might emerge. I’m pretty sure that they know better than to announce such “transformative” plans just as Roger Douglas and the fish and chip club new better than to announce their 100 day plan though they certainly had one.
But to be kind, events that took priority have commanded the attention of this government, and they did all right with what they have had to deal with right up until the vaccine roll out.
D J S
You mean they can’t do two things at once. Give us a break, yes I respect what happened – mostly, I didn’t support the mandate – over Covid but honestly dishing out money left right and centre to business. Bugger the poor.
On these numbers the Nasty Nat centre right block beats the LINO centre right block but it still looks tight.
Big fall for LINO after a massive majority at the covid election. In nine years the last National led government led LINO in the polls consistently and it was only Winston getting some payback in 2017 that denied them a fourth term.
I would be alarmed if I was a member of the LINO caucus right now especially if Luxon can get serious traction and the money donated so far will enable them to out spend LINO which will make a big difference on the ground and LINO continues to bleed support despite coalition options.
http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2022/04/so-what-are-they-buying-then.html
Well there are still two budgets to go and a lot of water to flow under the bridge and Adern and Robertson still want a legacy to leave themselves apart from pandemic management.
The door to a third term is closing quickly.
The legacy Jacinda leaves will be the lost oppetunity and the breaking of so many promises. It will not be less children in poverty (her portfolio )nurses happy and well paid (previous leaders role) a positive move on climate change (Greens job)
plenty of state houses /proactive police force and less crime /safe highways (not 1 new highway has been built in their two terms) better outcome for prisoners /inflation under control ./ return to a world class education system.
Many on this site will say National will not do any better but could they do any worse.
My only hope is both leaders do what Key had the guts to do and say they will not work with Winston Peters. Apart from the Gold Card has their time in office done anything for this country
A Labour/Green/Māori Party government would be genuinely transformational alright. We could look forward to such delights as:
– A Stasi-style secret police to hunt down “white supremacists”
– The burden of proof put on the defendant in sexual assault cases
– A new ministry for the alphabet people
– A Maori ethnostate
No thankyou. How about a genuinely evidence-based government instead? There’s a radical idea – policy based on evidence rather than ideology (of any kind).
Well upwards of a million kiwi’s want the Pharmac budget doubled as a minimum.
If that happens I Guarantee that is a million votes.
350,000 rare disease people want action
250,000 to 275,000 T1 and T2 diabetics want diabetes cgm’s funded.
That is just for starters.
Whether people following this blog recognise it or not health issues are going to be major determinant of whose vote goes where.
considering the maori parties propensity for betraying it’s own base they’d fit right in with the LINOs
I certainly don’t think that will happen again, they had a big jolt back then.
Oh please let there be a Labour-Greens-Maori government next time. It might actually flush the greens and Maoris down the proverbial toilet.
I seriously doubt anyone would believe Labour if it came out with a commitment to defined transformative change. Even their core new supporters are hard pushed to identify changes outside the sphere of identity politics. Most simply no longer trust them.
Fantail. If, as it now seems, Trevor Mallard was not acting alone in deciding to blast the Parliamentary protestors with bullying music, and to dowse them with water throughout the night, then why should anybody trust this government ? If they don’t have the courage of their own convictions, and they maintain a cowardly silence about what they were up to, then I suggest that they are no longer worthy of trust. They made decisions which they should be able to justify, and they either can’t or won’t.
This of course is a separate issue from what was a singularly unintelligent decision when the basic psychology about the likely reaction to their anti-protestor antics, has been known since the early post WW2 years. In spite of this, they went ahead, but won’t say why. They almost certainly infringed the New Zealand Bill of Rights in several ways, including inflicting cruel and unusual punishment upon persons, and young children, who had not been convicted of any criminal offences and therefore essentially negated the separation of powers upon which our judicial system and constitutional framework depends. This looks to me like an erosion of democracy, and it is neither transformative or transparent. Even if it was simply stupidity, it’s still not good.
Have the guts Mr Bradbury to admit you have banned Tiger Mountain while allowing all manner of tory suckups and even worse to post here!
I am happy to move on, but “stealth mode” really…
If the righty trolls stopped their attacks, there would be only 5 comments.
GB
Actually it would be a leftie wankfest echo chamber. That’s what you want yes?
‘Im happy to move on’.
Promises…. promises Tiger Mountain!
Feel free to go to The Standard, they are an echo chamber and will welcome you, they don’t allow any threads/posts that besmirch Labour or heaven forbid St Jacinda!
This site (Martyn especially) is a free speech advocate, obviously you get triggered when a different political view is expressed, are you a snowflake Tiger Mountain? Lol
Oh, why worry…
All our ‘political parties’ are merely paying quaint lip service to what was once our right and our ability to have some steerage over our society and its economy through open and honest discourse.
These days, that job’s now done by business, Big business, and as we all know about Big Business, they lie, steal, swindle, obfuscate and will be handsomely rewarded by us, via what was once our politic. So we shouldn’t worry our pretty and empty little heads, everything’s ok. Everything’s fine. Move along. Nothing to see here.
The Maori Party and The Green Party could get together and hui until the Friesian’s come in for milking but it wouldn’t make a difference to who pulls the dirty little strings in AO/NZ.
No amount of Hui will help those 2 parties (I call BS on Greens 10.5% support)…they simple do not have what it takes to function within a Government
Greens and Maori, Jesus Christ Martin, you come up with some silly ideas!
The Green deserve another shot at being part of government . They have done so well on kerbing climate growth and we must not forget that medical marajuana and recreational marajuana are all sorted due to Chloe’s help . They will fit well with the Maori Party as they have done so much for Maori since coming to office .
Stop laughing this is serious government business
Hahaha trying hard not to…very good! Besides….what if Winston annoints Jacinda yet again? Would we still be laughing?
Id take that bet. Jacinda and Winnie acouple of do nothing whisky drinkers are made for each other. Jacinda of Morrinsville is as dry as dry as Helen of Moolooland. Is Jacinda going to invite the Maori party’s JT on board to back up Willie and the Squad. Yeah nah. Jacinda and Winnie are sitting in the Last Chance Hotel if they are going to create any historical legacy for themselves they will likely need to do it together.
?