Latest Roy Morgan (or Rogue Morgan as critics call it) has come out with their latest Poll and it’s sobering news for the Left.
NATIONAL: 38%
ACT: 11.5%
LABOUR: 32%
GREEN: 11%
MAORI PARTY: 2%
NZF: 2%
TOP: 1%
I know, I know, I know. Greens on 11%? I know right.
Like I said, Rogue Morgan.
This poll was taken over the Parliament Lawn fiasco and Omicron surge so a bad month for the Government.
If the mainstream polls start showing National ahead, it makes for a change of narrative.
I think the 2023 election will be far closer now and it’s there for Labour to lose now.
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The trend is all bad for Labour – the narrative has been lost and the utter incompetence is shining through.
I think it’s highly unlikely that Labour are back at this point in time as anything can happen.
The bigger challenge for Labour is placating all those nobodies who are in parliament now but facing oblivion very soon – will they all sit quietly and accept the loss of salary etc. I suspect not and more so expect disruption and tension within Labour to start accelerating their demise
Will the right faction push back on the Māori faction, etc.
Lets have a ‘no confidence’ option on the ballot paper!
This is the best news I have seen for awhile. I am a National leaning voter so obviously their placing pleases me but I also hope it wakes Labour up and they realize they cannot do nothing and expect to be in power after then next election . I am not eadded to National and could eccept a Labour government that moved on issues like housing getting people back into the work force help the elderly and they very young .
Interesting times ahead and plenty of time for miss steps from both sides.
Not surprised that you would vote National, given that you are on record as thinking that people should lose everything if they cannot work due to sickness or disability, and that you want to impose US style health care.
Correction I am on record as not agreeing with the stupid two tier benefit system that Labour were suggesting that was slammed by most commentators and has vanished to the same grave yard as the Auckland bike bridge and 10000 homes in 10 years and many other half cocked schemes thought up by a government with no life skills other than politics.
I am on record as saying benefits should be rise so people do not have to beg at food banks and have some dignity.
Or described as thus …
Born Again Christian Tories – 38%
Chardonnay Socialist Ideologues – 32%
Pseudo Libertarian Opportunists – 11.5%
Woke Green Washers from central Wellington – 11%
Non-tie Wearers from Rotorua – 2%
Non-mask Wearing Opportunistic Winston Devotees – 2%
Sensible Infighting Former Gareth Devotees from Wherever – 1%
The MSM love to bash the Roy Morgan poll; I no no why, because they are all much if muchness on election day. It’s downside is that is polls for the whole month. Not withstanding that, the mid-point would have been at the start of the protest – so it’s not all protest angst an the guvmint’s handling of the occupation that has caused Labour’s dip.
It might be the only way to get rid of Mallard – and he won’t really care, few of them will.
The Duck must just about be ready to receive the Old Age Persons Benefit, or he could apply for a Mental Disability Benefit, his recent actions would no doubt qualify him for that type of Benefit.
He is 67, he has been double dipping for a while now.
Would be like a breath of fresh air without him, however who have Labour got who is competent enough to replace him.
Why the f**k can’t there just be a new centre party which has none of the bullshit all talk no walk woke virtue signalling of Labour / Greens and is similarly devoid of the self-centred blood sucking sell your own children’s organs if there is a money to made of the Nats / ACT?
NZF were Centre/Right but I hear they are just about f****d, I hear Winston is holed up in a Resthome in Whangarei these days.
I did hear talk of a New Farmers Party coming out of NZF and disaffected Candidates and Members but I haven’t heard anything lately, too early in the Election Cycle, probably holding their cards close to their chests at this stage ???
Lol. The PM is going for a job interview in May. Wait till the poor man’s Gordon Brown is in charge and having to explain his poor spending choices when stagflation hits in winter. Another landslide coming up – just the other way.
This is now the Right’s to lose as omnishambles fizzles out and we stumble back to normality
But don’t go betting on Luxon being the new messiah and allowing his half witted grand to get out
https://youtu.be/lN4TxOd9I8Q
Not the die part but the rest of the lyrics are perfect, particularly ” like John before him” and ” by leaps every minute he’s top of the polls”.
I’ve said before I’m no Fester fan and won’t be voting for Te Aro Luxon come 2023. However all he has to to do is not make any big mistakes and wait for the banana peel slips when the heat goes on.
In 6 months time omnishambles is effectively done (yes there will still be thousands of cases a week) however the unwashed will move on. Already cost of living is the main issue for voters. Wait till the end Ukraine effects are seen and Petrol peaks at over 4 dollars. When 50% of the cost are taxes you have already lost the argument……
Put a fork in her – she is done.
100% Frank
All Luxon has to do is play with a straight bat and offer professionalism and basic competence. Both of which he has.
Meanwhile Labour is making up policy on the fly, based on life experience none of them actually have. Their flagship policy – climate change – is already a bust in the eyes of the voters who buy fuel. None of it ever made any real sense anyway. A key driver behind the war in Europe is green virtue signalling that has made us dependent on Russian oil and gas again.
My pick is that as the the pressure goes on Ardern she will react in ever more nasty and spiteful ways and will be widely reviled as she leaves office.
Andrew he is already doing dumb comments real good, made the comment today re Standing Candidates in the Maori Seats Quote “I have been approached by some very high calibre Maoris over the Summer ?” so what he is really trying to say is Maoris are normally low calibre ?
So how many hospitals would you close down to cut taxes? And how much would you slash wages by. National and ACT would make it sure that no one get a wage increase ever again.
Sad but true millsy, sad but true.
Labour spent 100 Billion in 2 years Bertie and no new hospitals or staff……That argument will be almost impossible come a winter recession.
Let’s be Frank, Frankie, should they have not paid out the wage subsidy, should they not helped out business at all?
Dare I read the comments on this blog should Labour not have done that! At least the money was well spent.
Sad but true Frankie my boy, millsy is spot on.
Someone on here pines for the “rockstar economy” to return, you remember when hospital infrastructure was run down and the Nationals immigration ponzi scheme was rampant. Why was there increase in National debt from 10 billion to 100 billion from National with nothing to show for it?
Ohhhh,,, Only for the Return of the Golden Years Under the Rockstar Economy of John Key, they were the great years high wages, low rents, lots of surplus cash to put food on the table, warm housing and healthy well clothed and looked after children, come back John and save us from this dreadful witch Jacinda.
Don’t encourage him Ngungukai or he”ll start believing what he writes.
Why is it binary in your mind? Is it not possible to redirect spending from other areas whilst reducing taxes? I believe the Prime Minister acknowledged just yesterday that there are areas of wasteful spending…
She was a bit rattled the other day and her hands were going everywhere when the interviewer was trying to hang the Cost of Living Increases on the Labour Party.
Labour/Greens have lost it already because of their lack of meaningful action and an incompetent team.
Let’s see if this makes them wake up or hunker down. I think they are dumb enough to hunker down.
Labour could try implementing some of their policies. That might help.
Too hard just stick to the COVID, should get them through the next Election Cycle.
Shades of ’75, I wonder? Or maybe 1990?
It’s always been there for Labour to lose. The assorted lunatics from Parliament’s lawns will be over the moon. (Still on the planet they inhabit.)
There’s something sort of wondrous about people who say Covid isn’t a thing. They’ll go to the supermarket and see empty shelves blame Jacinda Ardern. Those who trust schools enough to send their kids there will wonder why classes are mucked up or kids are sent home with staff shortages. And blame Jacinda Ardern.
Those deluded enough to tell us the Wellington mob were all lovely peaceful thinkers, simply caring folk seeking freedom will be thrilled their sagacity and action will see us on the right road.
Will Labour ever stop tinkering?
Will they stop doing things for appearances and actually have substance to their actions?
Will they actually achieve anything they said they would?
Do they possess the ability to achieve anything?
Do they possess the credibility to actually convince us they aren’t a waste of space?
Do they have any credibility left with law and order after the Wellington debacle?
They have made this so very easy for National and I’ve said it a few times, what is the point of voting for Nationals Mini-Me?
It is all Smoke and Mirrors these days, same as National under John Key, it is about managing perceptions and keeping a majority for the next Election, so they all have a job at yours and my expense (ie the taxpayer).
Are Labour actually going to do anything ?
Only time will tell ?
Really Pip your main issue is to get rid of Mallard as if he is the main cause of all our countries angst.
Covid is pa. (1) No (2) No and (3) Angst is somewhat of an understatement.
Time for a Cabinet reshuffle. They can spin it as 3 having too much on their plates (Sepuloni, Faafoi and Woods). Or a “refresh”. It’d be a start at least.
And promote who? There are only lickspittles and newbys left
Is Woodsies Tram Set still ready to fire up, can’t wait for the fucking traffic jams around Central Auckland.
Hope so it’s a great idea. With petrol at the price it is there will be no traffic jams and trams and trains will be looked on as gold.
The tories have a hopeless bunch in their caucus. Luxon, Bridges and Willis are out of their depth. All the retro joe tories are floundering and are referring to retrospective matters from way back.
Bring on the hate speech and he puapua racial separatism madness.
This is only going one way.
This once in a generation Labour majority MMP Govt. was always going to be defined by its actions-and so it has turned out-unrepentant Rogernomes and Chicago Boys.
And to make it a even worse they are likely going to uncouple sanctions from the international community and in effect suck 5 Eyes donger. A reasonably independent foreign policy gained credibility for our small country and the PM has really exposed her total lack of a class analysis, or even ability to maintain a Helen Clark style approach.
There are a number of things in Labour’s favour that few voters know or care about it seems, from decent minimum wage increases to saving thousands (till now) from COVID.
But before any of the Tory slime that seemed to have grown on the pipes of TDB celebrate, Nashnull would have opened up and dispatched many more to a COVID death and they will increase inequality if ever elected again.
Country Boy laughed my arse off reading this post, my sentiments exactly unfortunately I have not got the mental energy to write a post this long so I try to keep mine to minimum, one of the better contributors to TDB look forward to the next post, actually enjoy some good sarcasm and laughter brightens up the day especially with the Dumb Lives Matter Movement and the Ukraine Situation.
Fake news?
I welcome the result.
Regardless of it being rogue, we do know what is factual.
1) Self perseveration is very real and is a huge motivator for any Government.
2) Labour will be working feverishly to nullify any and all areas National can get traction on.
3) Labour has 18 months to get momentum in the right direction so that will result in a win for most Kiwis.
Number 3 is the hope. Let’s bloody well hope they have the means to dos so, because so far, they’ve not shown that capability. Thoroughly NICE people as many of them are, there are a few of them that are really out of their depth.
Time for a reshuffle – spin it as they may – they’re expert (or at least THINK they are) at it. Call it a “REFRESH”
There are some really serious issues brewing – not the least of which is going to be the mean-spirited, and frankly a wwe bit evil Carmel Sepoloni and the OT/Chilluns Commisar issue.
What the fuck has possessed Her. In and of itself, that could become an election changer given the changing age demographics. It’s bordering on the fucking EVIL
So be it. Que Sera Sera
Labour voter, never again.
What a team – The Botany lip biter – and free guns for everyone Seymore.
We’ll see.
National voter , never again
Yes ” a brighter future” never again.
Yep sure was a Brighter Future for NZ, more guns, more shootings, more gangs (ie 501 Imports), more mental health issues, more cost of housing issues, now cost of living issues however it is not true ?
JK sold us the Sizzle but we didn’t even get a Sausage.
Looking at that expensive slide, it seems to me that actually it represents forward movement by Labour, who may be about to enter the slippery slope and go whee all the way to….? They won’t know where till they try it.
Can’t wait to see the back of dusty person.
When they opened the border, trolls came and the money to run them in extensive anti government campaigns.
However the government have been so busy placating the open borders Natz and ACT, that they totally ignore their voters and this is the result.
Nobody wants Three Waters, free speech criminalisation, more ‘targeted’ taxes and woke think including a large chunk of Labour supporters.
Banks making insane profits, supermarkets making over the odds profits by having the market by the balls and rocketing fuel prices.
Yes, the Luxon Seymour duo will fix it all.
“It’s already unacceptable that her Minister is considering killing off Orange Tamariki oversight by axing the Children’s Commissioner and rolling those powers into ERO.”
There is too much rearranging the deckchairs on the titanic and pretending there is not a problem with Labour. Over time this creates a massive backlog of unsolved and increasing problems such as the brain fart of 3 waters, another layer of management/restructure for taxpayers to pay for which results in increasing costs and less accountability for action. The cultural Te Reo meeting and working group think tanks, aran’t solving the extensive problems for everybody, including non middle class Maori.
The growing call for more cheap workers that nobody wants apart from the exploiters – woke and right wing.
Aka constant headlines like
Shortage of truck drivers threatens food deliveries; “can’t be swept under the rug”. (Forget worrying about the commerce commission for the cost of food, it’s the missing drivers that they just imported tens of thousands in the past decade that seem to be missing) sarcasm.
Funny enough on social media, the headlines have comments like
We’re do I get those jobs I’m keen trucker
Well 21 hour or 23 hour doing 70 hours a week won’t support the family . But the tax u pay will support the government . Getting there free perks on the taxpayers. That’s why they can’t get drivers
$35 contract plus gst to drive a truck who can afford To work for that and keep a family
No wonder there is a shortage
Remove secondary tax and you may find a few spots being filled.
I got a class 5 license but apparently dont have the experience. Then again also live wrong place right beside a Railway line which could be used as a hub. The problems not shortage of drivers its a shortage of forward thinking to overcome the problems. I know a few with HT licences that do not work in the Trucking industry.
maybe not a lack of drivers just lack of good wages and Covid restrictions by the Companies
Can’t afford the bloody food when it reaches the supermarket anyway
Well if you need them all you need to do is pay them really well and they will come.
Really, met a lady whose husband is a truck driver.
He is on a database to be called upon when the businesses are short on drivers to deliver essentials.
Funny tho he hasn’t had a call. There are drivers out there prepared to help.
So what really is the problem?
As one who tried to get into the trucking industry I can tell you it is really hard. Even if you have all the requirements you can miss out due to lack of experience. Fines, ACC levy, liability insurance. All of this is big gamble money if you are unknown. Flip side is that outside of the military none I have heard of are training either. I suggest something like an apprenticeship scheme sponsored by the industry at large.
Have they all gone to Aussie cause they get paid better. Always the same story about wages in NZ
everybody is thinking about heading back over why stay when the government ripes you off all the time. They would rather have nz full of unskilled workers to get more votes
$50 an hour and I’ll drive
Source facebook NZ herald with trade jobs NZ.
Note at the same time as winning media complaining they can’t get truck drivers, petrol too high etc, they are canning trains as they feel that is uneconomic. Well trains have only one driver and can get a lot more load on. Something is very wrong with NZ!
Remember when Labour got in, after wondering why ‘chefs’ were the highest missing skill in our immigration and with NZ First said they would decrease the amount of visas until the housing crisis was over. Well now they don’t seem too popular in the polls as they have put through 165,000 visas for more people to stay in NZ and opened the borders for the scams to continue.
According to The Guardian, New Zealand has one of the world’s highest per capita ratios of takeaway and fast food joints in the world. Family-owned fish and chip shops, kebaberies and Chinese takeouts are embedded in many New Zealanders’ weekly routines and rituals.
I think NZ also now has one of the highest franchise rates per capita, wonder why?
Obviously in woke land, this is seen as a wonderful thing and more wage subsidies to help these small business who seem to be in the media constantly whining about how great they are and should get more and more taxpayer support – nobody mentions obesity and diabetes in the media!
Meanwhile, on planet practical, New Zealand has the third highest adult obesity rate in the OECD, and our rates continue to increase. One in three adult New Zealanders (over 15 years) is classified as obese, and one in ten children.
Obesity is further problematic factor with Covid…
.. and diabetes and other associated health issues.
Hardly a surprise when a cut of meat, bread and milk will set you back 25 bucks.
Can of coke and a bag of potato chips 4 bucks.
Meat and dairy the biggest rip off at the Supermarket.
NZ Supermarkets competing with Offshore Buyers who pay higher prices and take larger volumes, also Supermarkets taking their 30-40% gross margin.
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