Why Kazakhstan might make Russian invasion of Ukraine more likely

By
Martyn Bradbury
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37
1416

My thoughts are that the sudden explosion of violence in Kazakhstan will make an invasion of the Ukraine more likely.

Russia was always going to send troops to support the Kazakhstan government, the country is simply too important for Russian strategic interests to allow a revolution to sweep away their pro-Moscow regime.

The Russians have their Cosmodrome their, their secret hypersonic missile test range and Russian owned uranium mines.

The troops Russia and former Soviet allies are sending are being sent to protect those assets and to free up Kazakhstan troops to bash up protestors.

Russia sees this attempted revolution as part of a hybrid  war strategy that America and the West are conducting by seeding Western NGOs into civil society to ferment populist uprisings.

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For Russia this is existential meddling in their neighborhood and the likely response will be to push back in the Ukraine with an invasion.

This Kazakh coup is happening over Orthodox Russia’s Christmas and is wall to wall news coverage there so Putin is preparing his country for another glorious war to protect Mother Russia from the decadent West.

The only winner will be the Anerican Military Industrial Complex who will be kicking their lips in anticipation of the weaponry they are about to sell extreme Muslim resistance fighters in Kazakhstan and right wing paramilitary militia in the Ukraine.

If conflict erupts further it will start the next great wave of radicalization fostered by violence.

Watch for China to synchronize a crushing move into Hong Kong if Russia attacks the Ukraine to challenge Biden’s capacity to contain two global flashpoints at once. If Putin & Xi are plotting they will strike after the Winter Olympics.

 

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37 COMMENTS

  1. My summary would be:

    1. Russians are good at doing mass fires on targets after spotting them with drones, sometimes within 15 minutes.
    2. Russians aren’t good at flexible fires although not sure.
    3. ERA protected tanks are practically invulnerable to non-tandem warheads
    4. Russian forces use cluster munitions & thermobaric warheads (TOS1) in their artillery & have a high percentage of MLRS (50:50). These are very effective.
    5. BMPs & equivalents are highly vulnerable to cluster munition artillery with troops preferring to sit on the outside than the inside. This means that mechanised assaults are lacking infantry as infantry often prefer attacking dismounted.
    6. Artillery is very good in the defensive role for the Ukrainians
    7. Artillery causes about 85% of casualties on both sides

    As you might have guessed it’s very artillery focussed. There’s some stuff on tactics but it’s brief. Some stuff is barely touched on which would be interesting eg Russia’s use of electronic counter measures (ECM) apart from saying that ECM jammers are effective at knocking drones out of the sky. I’ve heard some reports that Russian ECM was highly effective in general. Reports on a potential Russian plan for invading Ukraine don’t typically offer this kind of analysis. These hybrid people seems to say that conscripts make up the majority of the Russian army but I’m uncertain as to whether conscripts or volunteers will lead the Vanguard.

  2. The decedent West isn’t meddling in Russian/World affairs, it is the US Military/Intelligence Industrial Complex. Putin is not stupid ditto Xi. Neither will cast the first stone, given that both know, and anyone who follows world affairs also knows, that the US Military/Intelligence Industrial complex is sucking the life out of the USA. The first stone will be maneuvered by the USA, as it has been with everyone of their wars since , at least, the 1960’s.

  3. This whole scenario smells of CIA revenge for Syria and Afghanistan etc. The USA wants Russia bogged down in warfare and have timed things accordingly. But It appears Putin and Xi have outsmarted them. An interesting few weeks to come. Good luck Russia and China.

  4. So why was the first thing the Russians did when they moved in was arrest known union leaders, socialists and Anarchists. There is a true populist movement here, but bugger it – lets all stick to our party political lines of America bad.

    Because they only real people right, why should they matter? When ideology can spell it all out so much better.

  5. Martyn,

    You haven’t provided one good reason why Russia would invade Ukraine. Your headline is hyperbole. Russia has zero interest in occupying any part of Ukraine as it stands now. Zero. If they had, it would have already happened. They’ve got Crimea already and wouldn’t want the costs of an occupation.

    I do think you’re correct about the meddling in Kazakhstan. All the trappings of a (failed) colour revolution. Timing is very suspect.

    If anything, and the US don’t come to the party re NATO, the response will be hypersonic missiles in Kaliningrad and maybe a a strategic weapon in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Russia and Putin are serious about NATO encroachment, and who could blame them? If the US won’t talk turkey they’ll find a major threat on their doorstep in no time…

  7. Strategically Russia has a few problems. The Second Chechen War only finished in 2017 and Russia is still fighting a low level insurgency there. The Tajikistan uprising is quelled for now but will smoulder like Chechnya. A bigger concern for Russia will be DEASH organised Muslim uprising in Chechnya and Kazakhstan sponsored by Iran.

    Russia can ill afford all the countries ending with stan (as well as Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia becoming militant on its southern border.

    If we add an invasion of the Ukraine into the mix the resources of the Russian military will be very strained. In the Ukraine they will have another problem. One thing to invade, quite another to hold and control. History shows, occupation is not a long term solution. One needs to integrate to have a lasting influence. I don’t think the Ukraine will take kindly to integration so Russia can expect a long clandestine war like they had to fight in the first and second Chechen Wars.

    Fighting DEASH in the south and plus the Ukrainian underground in the west is not going to be easy.

    Add to that the Poland (who are doubling their armed forces) versus Belarus potential conflict and the Russian military is is getting stretched from the Baltic to the Caspian Seas and beyond to China’s western border..

    • How do you manage to get everything arse-about-face gerrit?.

      Daesh/Al-Nusra and Isis have been sponored and supported by the usa/the west and Israel to fight and kill Iranians in Syria and elsewhere ,,, but you have Iran supporting theses Sunni extremist’s ??.

      Regarding Ukraine ,,, I typed this response to a turkish tv clip where they interviewed a AZOV member as though he was a normal person ,,,

      “TRT interviewed a AZOv member ,,,, good thing he was not wearing their Nazi insignias that the Christchurch mosque attacker and mass murderer of Muslims painted onto his weapons and killing kit ,,, because he was a neo-nazi like them.

      If the Ukraine fascists attack the ethnic russian populations in Donbass and Donesk, Russia will come in to save them and be welcomed as heroes.

      Ukraine will then further break up with the fascist part and its Azov boys being Europe’s booby prize.

      Although they could be hired as refugee police,,, as they hate non-whites like Turks, Arabs, Africans etc etc. ”

      ….. Hell, some of them could even turn up in NZ, and appear as “freedom fighters” at pro-zionist pr-events …

  8. “Watch for China to synchronize a crushing move into Hong Kong…”

    Why would China need to do that? Hong Kong is part of China: always has been. The British stole it as a prize of war, ran it as a colony (no democracy) until it was obliged to hand the territory back in the late 1990s. And the Brits and the US have hung around ever since, trying to foment trouble.

    Note that Macau, also Chinese territory, was handed back by the Portuguese at around the same time as was HK. Do we hear about agitation in that area? We do not. Because the Portuguese simply left. They didn’t outstay their welcome, as the US/UK has done in HK.

  9. I watched an excellent interview by Rania Khalek on Break Through News with Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Ischenko who is a research associate at the Institute of East European Studies at Free University Berlin.
    His informed insight helps to understand the dynamics at play in this region.
    BTW agree 100% D’Esterre.

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