Why Kazakhstan might make Russian invasion of Ukraine more likely

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
37
1329

My thoughts are that the sudden explosion of violence in Kazakhstan will make an invasion of the Ukraine more likely.

Russia was always going to send troops to support the Kazakhstan government, the country is simply too important for Russian strategic interests to allow a revolution to sweep away their pro-Moscow regime.

The Russians have their Cosmodrome their, their secret hypersonic missile test range and Russian owned uranium mines.

The troops Russia and former Soviet allies are sending are being sent to protect those assets and to free up Kazakhstan troops to bash up protestors.

Russia sees this attempted revolution as part of a hybrid  war strategy that America and the West are conducting by seeding Western NGOs into civil society to ferment populist uprisings.

For Russia this is existential meddling in their neighborhood and the likely response will be to push back in the Ukraine with an invasion.

This Kazakh coup is happening over Orthodox Russia’s Christmas and is wall to wall news coverage there so Putin is preparing his country for another glorious war to protect Mother Russia from the decadent West.

The only winner will be the Anerican Military Industrial Complex who will be kicking their lips in anticipation of the weaponry they are about to sell extreme Muslim resistance fighters in Kazakhstan and right wing paramilitary militia in the Ukraine.

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If conflict erupts further it will start the next great wave of radicalization fostered by violence.

Watch for China to synchronize a crushing move into Hong Kong if Russia attacks the Ukraine to challenge Biden’s capacity to contain two global flashpoints at once. If Putin & Xi are plotting they will strike after the Winter Olympics.

 

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37 COMMENTS

  1. My summary would be:

    1. Russians are good at doing mass fires on targets after spotting them with drones, sometimes within 15 minutes.
    2. Russians aren’t good at flexible fires although not sure.
    3. ERA protected tanks are practically invulnerable to non-tandem warheads
    4. Russian forces use cluster munitions & thermobaric warheads (TOS1) in their artillery & have a high percentage of MLRS (50:50). These are very effective.
    5. BMPs & equivalents are highly vulnerable to cluster munition artillery with troops preferring to sit on the outside than the inside. This means that mechanised assaults are lacking infantry as infantry often prefer attacking dismounted.
    6. Artillery is very good in the defensive role for the Ukrainians
    7. Artillery causes about 85% of casualties on both sides

    As you might have guessed it’s very artillery focussed. There’s some stuff on tactics but it’s brief. Some stuff is barely touched on which would be interesting eg Russia’s use of electronic counter measures (ECM) apart from saying that ECM jammers are effective at knocking drones out of the sky. I’ve heard some reports that Russian ECM was highly effective in general. Reports on a potential Russian plan for invading Ukraine don’t typically offer this kind of analysis. These hybrid people seems to say that conscripts make up the majority of the Russian army but I’m uncertain as to whether conscripts or volunteers will lead the Vanguard.

  2. I thought the russian army had gone over to all/mostly volunteers years ago, going with the ‘professional army’ concept.

    • I think A O is closer to the truth. Biden may think he’s reading and predicting Putin’s moves. But so is Putin reading and predicting.

  3. The decedent West isn’t meddling in Russian/World affairs, it is the US Military/Intelligence Industrial Complex. Putin is not stupid ditto Xi. Neither will cast the first stone, given that both know, and anyone who follows world affairs also knows, that the US Military/Intelligence Industrial complex is sucking the life out of the USA. The first stone will be maneuvered by the USA, as it has been with everyone of their wars since , at least, the 1960’s.

  4. This whole scenario smells of CIA revenge for Syria and Afghanistan etc. The USA wants Russia bogged down in warfare and have timed things accordingly. But It appears Putin and Xi have outsmarted them. An interesting few weeks to come. Good luck Russia and China.

  5. America can hardly raise an ‘Army’ now. The people are tired of war.
    Let’s hope neither of this happens. But, if it does. I hope the Russians smash the fuck out of NATO and the US if they turn up.

    • I don’t believe Russia is half as bad as the USA is always promoting, and Russia gives them a big kick in the balls.

    • “America can hardly raise an ‘Army’ now. The people are tired of war.” .. This is the USA you’re talking about.. There are literally thousands of militias operating as we speak there, and all that has to be done to mobilise the vast majority of the population is to whisper that the “Russkies are trying to attack our “democracy”” .. They will be tired of wat the day after their country has been turned into a wasteland of radiation, and total destruction… Until that happens, the bloodlust is as strong as ever… If you need proof, just go online and rubbish their military.. See what happens, and try to keep count of the threats, and abuse you attract for saying something so thoughtlessly stupid…

  6. So why was the first thing the Russians did when they moved in was arrest known union leaders, socialists and Anarchists. There is a true populist movement here, but bugger it – lets all stick to our party political lines of America bad.

    Because they only real people right, why should they matter? When ideology can spell it all out so much better.

  7. saw an interesting thing a while ago on the percentage of recruits the US forces turn down every year because they’re literally too fat and/or too stupid….

    when the brits had a similar problem with recruits too malnourished to enter boot camp back ww1…free school meals were instituted, not out of kindness but because the empire needed proletarians physically capable of actually carrying a rifle..

    • Let’s be clear, whilst Putin is an evil prick, Russia were given assurances after the wall fell that NATO expansion would continue no more.
      The US have pretty clearly broken that promise, backed Russia into a corner and ven Putin the ammunition to sway public opinion in Russia his way.

      • Jays: “…whilst Putin is an evil prick…”

        No he isn’t. Anyone who thinks otherwise has been duped by US/UK propaganda. The citizens keep electing him because he has “chops” as a leader.

        We have extended family there.

        There’s a history of long-serving leaders in that part of the world. Consider how long Angela Merkel has been chancellor of Germany: elected over and over. And she isn’t the longest-serving of German chancellors, either: I think that prize goes to Konrad Adenauer. You need to be as old as I am to remember him.

        No, the elections in Russia aren’t rigged: good luck with that in such a vast country. The citizens there have freedom of speech, and there is lively political debate, such as we can only dream about here. Were that not the case, you’d never have heard of that small-time crim and wannabe pollie, Navalny.

  8. America can’t win any conventional Wars so it has to act as a devious spoiler using hybrid & economic warfare in the form of Coups & sanctions to try & accomplish its Imperial ambitions? This attempted Coup has all the hallmarks of a typical American, CIA Color Revolution operation to overthrow the legitimate Kazakhstan Govt & cause a headache & a mess for Russia! Unlike the successful American Ukraine Coup, this Coup has been swiftly putdown by the Kazak Govt & with the support of Russia & China! If anything, this latest debacle by the US should serve as a warning to Ukraine’s idiot Comedian President that Russia has put it on notice that it is in no mood to tolerate any more American games & meddling & Ukraine will suffer the consequences if it tries to stop the breakaway regions in the Donbass from seeking their independence as outlined in the Minsk agreements! The Cartoon used in this article is also a joke, a clear misrepresentation of the Cuban missile crisis? Russia put Nuclear missiles in Cuba only because America was putting Nuclear missiles, aimed at the Soviet Union in Turkey. America was prepared to initiate Nuclear War to stop these missiles being placed so close to their Borders! This was also a red line for America & a Red line for Russia having American missiles so close to Russian Borders! Against his Military advisors, Kennedy did a deal to stop this Security risk to itself & Russia by pulling the missiles out of Turkey & Russia did the same in Cuba. In the 1990’s Mikhail Gorbochev was promised by America & Nato that it wouldn’t swallow up the former Soviet satellite Countries & expand to Russia’s borders by joining Nato! The US & Nato lied & broke that promise! There are talks being held, at this very moment, in Geneva with Russia about this very subject? Putin is insisting the West honors the original agreements & adheres to its Red lines & they want the West to provide written Western guarantees that Nato will abide by the original Nato non-expansionist terms of the 1990’s. Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis, America was prepared to risk Nuclear War to stop Russia putting missiles in Cuba so close to its Borders? It’s only reasonable that Putin is doing the same with his Red lines against Nato putting American Nuclear missiles on its Borders & will risk Nuclear War just as America was prepared to do over Cuba, if its terms weren’t met! After America’s Afghanistan debacle, Russia is calling America’s bluff & won’t tolerate any more American deviousness & Geopolitical gamesmanship & China is calling them out as well! Unfortunately America has no Politicians like JFK who can pull America back from the brink of it’s own arrogance & brinksmanship!

  9. Martyn,

    You haven’t provided one good reason why Russia would invade Ukraine. Your headline is hyperbole. Russia has zero interest in occupying any part of Ukraine as it stands now. Zero. If they had, it would have already happened. They’ve got Crimea already and wouldn’t want the costs of an occupation.

    I do think you’re correct about the meddling in Kazakhstan. All the trappings of a (failed) colour revolution. Timing is very suspect.

    If anything, and the US don’t come to the party re NATO, the response will be hypersonic missiles in Kaliningrad and maybe a a strategic weapon in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Russia and Putin are serious about NATO encroachment, and who could blame them? If the US won’t talk turkey they’ll find a major threat on their doorstep in no time…

  10. where, oh where is sir tony blair order of the garter when we need a glib plausible liar to start another pointless decades long war…..oh for the days when merely waving a file could set the tanks rolling.

    what’s the betting the LINO invites her sense to NZ on his next grifting tour?

  13. Isn’t it convenient that a major Color Revolution Coup in Kazakhstan, this Regime change operation occurs at precisely the same time as talks between Russia & Geneva take place? Coincidence? I think not? The meddling, Geopolitical mongrel Dog called America, the United States of Warmongering & murder, using its CIA operatives to create chaos, has failed AGAIN! Not content with Ukraine meddling, they tried a Regime change Coup in Belarus & failed, tried in Kazakhstan & failed yet again! No longer able to hide in the dark, Russia’s quick response Team is dispatched to quickly putdown the CIA Regime change operation & squash it like a bug, another humiliation for the US geopolitical plans after it’s disastrous Afghanistan debacle? Russia is in no mood to put up with American Geopolitical deviousness any longer & will not tolerate any threat to its Security interests! Nato & the uS are on notice that enough is enough!

  14. a certain austrian lance corporal believed the russians would be a pushover, if the yanks can’t beat them in a conventional war they might go for battlefield nukes which should worry everyone in eastern europe from polish and ukrainian neo-nazis to baltic neo-liberal capitalists, being generalissmo of a nuclear desert ain’t much fun, though the gaudy uniform does come with the job…so swings and roundabouts y’know.

  15. Strategically Russia has a few problems. The Second Chechen War only finished in 2017 and Russia is still fighting a low level insurgency there. The Tajikistan uprising is quelled for now but will smoulder like Chechnya. A bigger concern for Russia will be DEASH organised Muslim uprising in Chechnya and Kazakhstan sponsored by Iran.

    Russia can ill afford all the countries ending with stan (as well as Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia becoming militant on its southern border.

    If we add an invasion of the Ukraine into the mix the resources of the Russian military will be very strained. In the Ukraine they will have another problem. One thing to invade, quite another to hold and control. History shows, occupation is not a long term solution. One needs to integrate to have a lasting influence. I don’t think the Ukraine will take kindly to integration so Russia can expect a long clandestine war like they had to fight in the first and second Chechen Wars.

    Fighting DEASH in the south and plus the Ukrainian underground in the west is not going to be easy.

    Add to that the Poland (who are doubling their armed forces) versus Belarus potential conflict and the Russian military is is getting stretched from the Baltic to the Caspian Seas and beyond to China’s western border..

    • How do you manage to get everything arse-about-face gerrit?.

      Daesh/Al-Nusra and Isis have been sponored and supported by the usa/the west and Israel to fight and kill Iranians in Syria and elsewhere ,,, but you have Iran supporting theses Sunni extremist’s ??.

      Regarding Ukraine ,,, I typed this response to a turkish tv clip where they interviewed a AZOV member as though he was a normal person ,,,

      “TRT interviewed a AZOv member ,,,, good thing he was not wearing their Nazi insignias that the Christchurch mosque attacker and mass murderer of Muslims painted onto his weapons and killing kit ,,, because he was a neo-nazi like them.

      If the Ukraine fascists attack the ethnic russian populations in Donbass and Donesk, Russia will come in to save them and be welcomed as heroes.

      Ukraine will then further break up with the fascist part and its Azov boys being Europe’s booby prize.

      Although they could be hired as refugee police,,, as they hate non-whites like Turks, Arabs, Africans etc etc. ”

      ….. Hell, some of them could even turn up in NZ, and appear as “freedom fighters” at pro-zionist pr-events …

  16. Poland (who are doubling their armed forces)..which gerrit is not an overtly aggressive act OF COURSE(how much black funding from the US/NATO?) imagine the kerfuffle if putin was doubling his forces but polish moves go under the radar of our media….still it’s an opportunity for NZ forces to set up creches in a devastated eastern europe, so some good virtue signaling photo ops there lads.

    • It is a defensive act to prevent a Russian inspired Belarus from flooding the EU with Middle-eastern refugees.

      https://www.bbc.com/news/59233244

      Level of funding ex US/NATO? Heapsand more heaps. Note that Poland is the only NATO country that spends 2% of their GDP on armed protection. Strategically any Russian thrust toward Europe will come across the Ukrainian Steppes. Hence a heavily armed Polish military on that Northern Flank would be a major concern to Russian planners. Just one reason Russia wont invade Ukraine to attack westwards.

      Troop count for Poland is 114K versus 40K for Belarus. Russia cannot make up the difference in manpower or machines. The Polish air force is being upgraded to replace older Mig29 and SU22 soviet aircraft with 48 F16 Fighting Falcons having entered service to date.

      This is their equipment list for land based forces. Also a major upgrade from older soviet armaments to modern battle tanks and anti aircraft missiles.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Polish_Land_Forces

      Russia has to consider the strength of the Polish militarily before they engage in a westward thrust.

      There has been an unsettled conflict in the region for such a long time. Mention the Katyn massacre and all bets are off in terms of Polish and Russian reconciliation. Worth a read to get a better understanding;

      https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85115

      “There must be no illusions that symbolic concessions, public apologies, and elegant gestures will suffice to overcome the deep distrust between the two sides. Historical disagreements and old grievances between Poland and Russia are too ingrained to be mended in the foreseeable future.”

      • yup katyn was a terrible crimes but we could talk about the polish attempt to invade the ukraine as the krauts pulled out after ww1 thus precipitating the polish-soviet war they whine about ad the ethnic clensing of ukrainians they carried out in the areas they grabbed in the 20/30s, or polands little slice of Czechoslovakia after munich when the polish military dictatorship was big pals with adolf(the poles hate jews too y’know and they proved it)…
        and just to rile you up..was the grand duchy of poland ever a country or was it a province of russia…JOKING!!!

        ……as I’ve said in the past about eastern europe….
        I hate you because your grandad fucked my grandads prize goat.

        so can we just discuss what’s on the ground today huh?

        • Yep today, the Polish military strength that would amass on the Northern Flank of any Russian incursion into Ukraine will have the Russian planners thinking.

          As will the DEASH uprising in the ‘Stan countries. Not forgetting the continuing Chechnya and Ukrainian conflict. (the partisan Russian operations in the Donbass region have now been active for over 7 years with no serious gains – only losses in people and infastructure).

          Latest Russian sabre rattling is to send forces to Cuba and Venezuela. That is a mighty big world wide field of operations. Long supply lines.

          https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-us-talks-unsuccessful-military-infrastructure-cuba-venezuela/

          My grandfather had better tastes than goat meat. He may even be your grandfather!! Do I call you; Bro?

          • all well and good if the US can get through another year before collapsing and withdrawing all it’s ground forces home to fight a civil war there…at least putin doesn’t have that to worry about, as for NATO there’s always turning off the gas tap to keep them in line.

            on the whole best for everyone but especially the russians, poles, ukrainians and balts if the juvenile pissing contest stops.

            • Be interesting to have a discussion on what a USA civil war will look like. Will the armed forces wearing combat boots on the ground follow orders to shoot fellow citizens? Not least demobilized ex service personal (of which there are many millions) that may fight for the constitution?

              The strength of the ex military in the USA is a player in the civil war. These are highly trained veterans from Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. If we look at membership of the Patriot Guard for example there are over 350K members. Not saying they would form militia units (you do not even need to be a veteran to join) but it is an indication of the size of the honorably discharged ex military available to form effective militia units. Weapons are no problem. The USA is awash with all types of military hardware.

              Would active USA armed forces fire upon and engage with the veterans? Could be interesting.

  17. 800,000,000,000,000 tons of proper Ecstasy Powder trucked in to the border conflict zones in conjunction with a speaker system the size the larger of those Park Avenue tax-dodge penthouses coupled to a Russian nuclear powered power amplifier playing this https://youtu.be/-Zx0uIv0yyA and this https://youtu.be/0RXdd0pCJ9Q, a 5000 hectare bed and a limitless supply of spring water and eclipse chewing gum for the inevitable jaw clenchies and you’d have enduring peace and love never before seen in human history.
    You can thank me later when you get out of bed.

  18. “Watch for China to synchronize a crushing move into Hong Kong…”

    Why would China need to do that? Hong Kong is part of China: always has been. The British stole it as a prize of war, ran it as a colony (no democracy) until it was obliged to hand the territory back in the late 1990s. And the Brits and the US have hung around ever since, trying to foment trouble.

    Note that Macau, also Chinese territory, was handed back by the Portuguese at around the same time as was HK. Do we hear about agitation in that area? We do not. Because the Portuguese simply left. They didn’t outstay their welcome, as the US/UK has done in HK.

    • INDEED the hong kong police used to be a byword for corruption and oppression under the british..HK was never anything even approaching any kind of faux democracy.

  19. I watched an excellent interview by Rania Khalek on Break Through News with Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Ischenko who is a research associate at the Institute of East European Studies at Free University Berlin.
    His informed insight helps to understand the dynamics at play in this region.
    BTW agree 100% D’Esterre.

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