WHAT JUST HAPPENED? Seriously. What on earth possessed Judith Collins to move against Simon Bridges so maladroitly, and with so little prospect of success? It’s baffling.
The tactic employed, resurrecting a five-year-old incident that had been resolved, um, five years ago, was just so incredibly dumb. Honestly, I thought Judith Collins was a whole lot smarter than that. To take such a huge risk, she must have believed Bridges had a lock on the caucus that was unbreakable and that he intended to move against her sooner, rather than later.
Presumably, that is why Collins refused to call caucus together yesterday evening (24/11/21) as Bridges, quite understandably, demanded. She must have calculated that the move she was intending to make against her principal contender would not be approved.
As a lawyer, Collins should have known that even Bridges’ caucus enemies would require a proper process to be followed, and the rules of natural justice observed. So, according to her own testimony, she took the matter to the National Party Board instead. With their (alleged) full support, Collins then issued a media release banishing Bridges to the back-benches. His crime? Telling a dirty joke in the earshot of Waitaki MP, Jacqui Dean.
Except, that makes no sense at all. By refusing to take the matter to caucus, and beheading Bridges without their consent, all Collins did was make sure that, when the National Caucus next convened, her own head would be on the block. One had only to listen to the pure, cold fury in the voices of National MPs as they made their way to the caucus room this morning (25/11/21) to appreciate just how hopeless Collins’ position had become.
The peculiar thing is, it could all have been done so differently – and with a much greater chance of success. Had Collins caused the information, and the precise wording of Bridges’ dirty joke, to end up in the hands of the relentless Furies of the news media, his progress towards a caucus showdown would, at the very least, have been slowed. Indeed, with the right handling, Bridges could have been “exposed” as a nasty, sexist, sleaze-bag. To paraphrase the inimitable Lyndon Johnson: Collins wouldn’t be calling her rival a “nasty, sexist, sleaze-bag”, she would be forcing him to deny it.
Surely, that would have been the smart move? She could have knifed Bridges good and proper, while leaving no fingerprints on the blade.
Collins huge advantage – before she committed “suicide by caucus” – was that National’s caucus was split into what, from the outside, looked like four factions.
There was her own faction, of course, not that big, but not that small either. Then there were Bridges’ people, who were said to constitute a bare majority. Impressive, but also inadequate. Bridges needed to come roaring home in any contest. Just squeaking in would only leave a roughly equal number of National MPs seething and fuming behind his back. Christopher Luxon’s people were also numerous, just not as numerous as Bridges’. Finally, there were the so-called “liberals”. A small faction, but potentially crucial to securing a decisive vote for Unity and Change.
The trick was to keep all the factions in favour of a leadership change off-balance and mistrustful of everybody but themselves. Let their numbers people work away, drawing up lists of “Definites” “Possibles” and “Don’t Bother Asking”. Just make sure that while they’re doing that, you’re doing everything in your power to keep the tallies inadequate to the challenge of achieving Unity and Change.
It isn’t an heroic strategy, but you’d be surprised how often in history it has succeeded. The Romans called in divide et impera – divide and rule. What it had given Collins – and was continuing to give her – was time. Time in which all manner of unpredictable things can happen. What sort of things? The sort of things which the 1960s Tory leader, Harold Macmillan, famously reduced to: “Events, dear boy, events.”
Why didn’t Collins stick with the strategy that had kept her, National’s most improbable of leaders, in power for more than a year? One might just as well ask why Rob Muldoon (that other unforgiving right-wing populist National Party leader) got drunk and called the snap-election that would destroy him, way back in June 1984. Or, demand to know why Jim Anderton suddenly abandoned the leadership of the Alliance in November 1994.
“Events, dear boy, events.” Something you didn’t expect, and can’t fix, happens, and it all just gets too much. All the plotting and scheming. All the arm-twisting and political assassinating. Suddenly, the whole shitty business no longer seems worth the effort, and the all people around you start looking too hopelessly fucked-up to bother with.
And. You. Snap.
No other explanation seems to fit. Wednesday, 24 November 2021, will go down as the day Collins simply stopped fighting. Not because she was beaten, but because she could no longer remember the point of trying so hard to win.
In the midst of a global pandemic. Facing a Labour Party whose leadership is younger, nimbler, and more attuned to the zeitgeist. In charge of a party too ideologically and socially constipated to re-join the political fray as a competitive player. Judith Collins, eyebrow raised, quietly picked up her rifle, climbed out of the trench, and started walking across no-man’s land towards the enemy. Predictably she was shot to pieces before she’d taken 100 paces.
It wasn’t pretty. But it was, at least, over.
Judith Collins turned out to be Judith Collins, who would have thought?
Nasty, vindictive, spiteful, revengeful, great if you’re the name of a Royal Navy ship, bad if you’re a human trying to appeal to voters.
I just couldn’t care less about the National Party. They’re a bad joke from another generation!
I feel it was one of two things and perhaps a bit of both.
1) Desperate fear along with some knowledge of an immanent plot to roll her that had been gaining momentum. If she acted decisively, not only could it prevent her dethroning but it could bully and scare off anyone else involved. This would explain the complete blanking out of her colleagues with her actions, the very thing that upset them most.
2) In these woke times, she attempted to set herself up as someone using their power to stand up for females who have been subjected to any kind of inappropriateness. This may explain Collins remarkably portraying herself as a Martyr for the cause who farcically had no regrets over her diabolical actions.
Either way, it was an epic miscalculation and a reflection of what Simon Bridges stated. Judith Collins was desperate and would do anything to retain the National Party leadership. I feel confident Whale Sludge has a hand in the skullduggery. One thing for certain, this was his Waterloo.
Anyone who thinks this was Collins last stand is mistaken. She got out of the place at warp speed yesterday. Humiliated and powerless. That is not a good combination to a person with a penchant for the revengeful destroying of people’s careers. She’s gone off to lick her wounds and work out how best to snatch that revenge. The more damage she can cause to her ‘colleagues”, the more powerful she will feel and appear. That revenge will be her last stand.
I felt she would resign and trigger a by-election in Papakura. That is still very much on the cards but something she said yesterday caused me to rethink that or at least the timing of it. She stated she would continue on as the MP for Papakura and would even stand in 2023. How could she possibly know that yesterday of all days? She knows her fellow National Party MP’s want her gone gone gone which I believe is exactly why she said she would stand in 2023. Collins was already thinking revenge. You destroy her dream and her career, she will do anything to return the deed.
NZ dodged a bullet by seeing through Collins who has a history that should prevent her from even visiting the top floor.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/video/10443223/Real-reason-behind-Judith-Collins-demise
Not sure how things work in National electorate committees – is she certain to be reselected to stand in Papakura? Maybe she’s burned her bridges there too.
burned her bridges there too… hehe nice one… but I doubt she has… she is a vengeful witch but has some common sense so I would imagine she has a supportive team of minions around her
Yeah, the Pigswill mob in Puke will reselect her for sure
“the Pigswill mob in Puke”.. She is the mp for Papakura.. Last time I checked, there was at least two electorates between hers and Andrew baileys, who actually is the mp for Pukekohe.. Try to at least get your facts right if you must hate on people..
She could stand as an independant?
But will the electorate reselect her?
They won’t get the chance RosieLee.
I’d say there is a 0% chance of her standing in 2023. Her dream is over. She can however do some damage and cause stress and worry to her colleagues etc by it appearing she will stand.
Once she has exacted her revenge, humiliation addressed and she feels a level of power, Collins will depart quickly to “spend more time with family”.
Good piece Mr Trotter.
I also wonder if Collins misunderstood the public’s reaction to a “me too” that certainly sounds dead and buried.
Did she think that in the current climate just the accusation would sink him? If so it shows how out of step she was with public sentiment.
One small positive is that the MPs and many of the public still believe in due process.
I’m not sure this will hurt the Nats in the polls much, they may even get a bounce from dispatching such a polarizing leader -surely they were already pared down to just the true believers.
I wonder who is next over the top.
“No other explanation seems to fit. Wednesday, 24 November 2021, will go down as the day Collins simply stopped fighting. Not because she was beaten, but because she could no longer remember the point of trying so hard to win.
In the midst of a global pandemic. Facing a Labour Party whose leadership is younger, nimbler, and more attuned to the zeitgeist. In charge of a party too ideologically and socially constipated to re-join the political fray as a competitive player. Judith Collins, eyebrow raised, quietly picked up her rifle, climbed out of the trench, and started walking across no-man’s land towards the enemy. Predictably she was shot to pieces before she’d taken 100 paces.”
Great writing Chris.
“To take such a huge risk, she must have believed Bridges had a lock on the caucus that was unbreakable and that he intended to move against her sooner, rather than later.”
In fact I was told late last week by a National insider in BoP that Bridges was going to move on her. She must have got wind and tried to cut it off with this mess.
Frankly, if that’s the sort of tactic she’s capable of, then I wouldn’t want her as leader either.
People gloating over this ought to bear in mind two things that bode not well for the future.
1. With Crusher out of the way the National Party may select a more credible and attractive leader that will make National more dangerous( especially as Labour plods on in neo-liberal mode turning more of its traditional support base into non-voters).
2. Disillusioned National voters will turn to ACT and breathe life into the toxic cabal that should have died years ago.
Chris Finlayson said on RNZ this morning that both Collins and Bridges should resign and move on. I couldn’t agree more for those who like the National Party, but being one who despises their modus operandi I am quite happy for their poison to stay on in Nationals ranks (with Slater in the background). Let them do more damage!
What has unfolded lately in National should have happened as soon as Dirty Politics was published. I was dismayed at how that superb book was successfully vilified and denigrated by the Right at that time.
This only works until they win an election, then the shits are the government
Totally agree garibaldi. National is paying the price for not admitting to, and dealing with, their ‘dirty politics’. Short of a total clean out of the board and MPs their continued demise is certain.
Yes, but the void … avoid the void! That will and is being filled by Act, a far worse game in town than even the hideous National party.
https://youtu.be/ypVLdPZRumo
As usual a great piece Chris, some very quotable quotes there. The Collins show appears to be in intermission but the next episode “Revenge times two” could be even more entertaining than the last
1. “Appreciate just how hopeless Collins’ position had become?”
More pertinently, appreciate just how hopeless Collins was.
2. “She could have knifed Bridges good and proper, while leaving no fingerprints on the blade?” The style she used on Lees-Galloway.
Quite by chance I came across an old box of DVDs the other day among which was a copy of the Hollow Men doco. Of course I remember how the story goes but some of the gory details had eluded my memory. It struck me how little National had moved on from that ghastly era.
Even Dr Reti, coming across like some sort of low rent Southern preacher with all his talk of shepparding his caucus flock, the talent of the group and their “track record”, seems to have drunk the venal cool aid that eliminates any form of self-reflection. For my part I have begun to have a very tiny amount of sympathy for some of those young Nat candidates who so spectacularly failed all tests of probity in the previous term, for what kind of environment were they coming in to? One where lying, cheating and back stabbing were encouraged behaviours, all the while with the knowledge that the aptly named Slater was scurrying around in the background poking his fulsome fingers into everyone’s undies drawer.
How on earth, in this day and age, do they think they can get away with using a House of Cards playbook? We’ve all watched it and we know how it ends but their eternal “old, white and born to rule” bullshit still keeps them warm at night. It’s as if they’ve had a self inflicted blood eagle performed, more fetid whale carcass than whale oil. Hager is a National hero and this lot are the last first class passengers on the Titanic, enjoying their foie gras as the inevitable end approaches.
The Hollow Men
You’re welcome. 🙂
Exactly! A few on here may like to read this and educate themselves.
Yes Elrae, Dr Reti should reflect on the fact that he was JCs loyal deputy knowing all along what she is like. Not once did he see fit to distance himself from her caustic style. It’s far too late for any of them to claim any morale high-ground; they all owe the country an apology and their resignations.
Quite true, I find Reti has a creepy manner and he is tainted by alignment with Collins who is such a nutcase that the rats he woulda had to swallow to keep onside says it all about his character.
Yeah but she had a following of many NZers who are also vindictive, spiteful, nasty, racist, anti Maori mea te mea and I could go on.
Judith Collins personifies the shambles and everything that is wrong with the National Party and its core beliefs which seem to be founded on a sense of entitlement, bullying, deceit, cunning, and attacking their opponents through underhand means – read Cameron Slater and his ilk.
@Nathan Kerr – you are so right but will the next leader be any better? He/she might be more user friendly than Collins but will whoever it is continue with the same National Party rubbish which seems to appeal to the party itself and to its supporters?
All goods. The best team won it anyway.
The toxic slug Slater could still have skin in the game with Mark Mitchell. National needs to disassociate itself from Dirty Politics bullshit and anyone tainted with it. They could do far worse than keep Reti at the helm. My missus, who is seldom wrong, reckons too much Wednesday wine and rancour had more to do with Collins’ bizarre behaviour than any grand Machiavellian plan. She is more reptilian than chess master. I reckon you’re reading too much into a brain fart, Chris. Or disrespecting Samoa. Or something.
…”reckons too much Wednesday wine and rancour had more to do with Collins’ bizarre behaviour than any grand Machiavellian plan”…
I think your Missus is onto something there, just quietly…
Judith Collins was never doing things in the best interest of the NZ National Party. Collins only did things to suit Collins. She didn’t care about the fall-out when it happened to others.
Maybe what has happened to her has been some long over-due Karmic Payback for all the nasty things she has done to people over so many years.
She comes across as vindictive, conniving, manipulative and full of personal jealousies and of course insecurities. She was the Representation of National and she demeaned that now minor political party down to her level.
She was the face of National and her whole aura reeked of arrogance(the National Party trait)as well as most likely having the “Let them(the peasant stock)eat cake” in her attitude towards say low income NZ taxpayers even in her very electorate that she was only too happy to get away from during Lockdown because she considered herself an ‘essential worker’.
Collins had truly vindictive qualities that she would hold onto for what probably would be considered years. She used others to do her dirty work for her and after the fall-out of some media release would sit back and let others suffer the consequences of her manipulations etc.
Looking at her ‘I don’t care’ attitude towards say the Swamp Kauri matter I am sure she had the same cavalier attitude towards anything else. She wanted to be Top Dog of National and she wanted to hold onto that power as long as she could even when it came to holding grudges against those in National and in her irrational frame of mind she considered ‘enemies’.
Collins did not Do It for National. She had re-created the party into her own little dictatorship using fear and intimidation(aka bullying)to get HER WAY.
As I have said Collins has personal jealousies and most likely especially towards Bridges. He was OUT THERE selling his book whilst her book is a ‘sitting duck that is dead in the water’. I am sure Collins’s book is collecting dust on a shelf somewhere and about the only use it will have in the future is to clean up the kitty litter.
But then Bridges is speaking in contradiction of earlier comments even made this week. One minute he is saying Collins was bad for National and the next he is painting a ‘glowing report of her’. This inconsistency will not do anyone any good in the long run and shows uncertainty even into the election booths.
But then about 7 weeks ago on Q&A with Jack Tame Tame was interviewing Simon Bridges. Bridges may have been asked(I caught the tail end of the interview)as to where he sees National in the futur eg in 2023. Bridges replied he sees National in government with Judith Collins(of all lowlifes)as prime minister. I bet Bridges had no idea Collins was at the time getting her revenge on him all lined up and yet again using another person for the evidence.
But then that is the Judith Collin MO i.e get the ‘evidence’ in order to do the dirty on others whilst she comes out squeaky clean and innocent of all manipulations on her part
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