WHAT ARE WE TO MAKE of what Delta is doing in Gibraltar? This tiny British toe-hold at the very tip of the Iberian Peninsula has the distinction of being the most Covid-19 vaccinated community on Earth. Thanks to the fact that many of the people who work in Gibraltar every day, return to their homes in Spain every night, fully 118 percent of Gibraltar’s 32,000 inhabitants have been inoculated. That’s pretty impressive – or, so you might think. But the truth is that Covid-19 is once again surging through the tiny Crown colony. Its daily count of community cases is about the same as ours, which, given its size, is pretty damn scary.
Also frightening are the obvious domestic implications of Covid-19’s global resurgence. For months now, we’ve been told that getting vaccinated is they very best thing New Zealanders can do to defeat the virus. But, if a vaccination rate of 118 percent can’t stop Delta in its tracks – then what can? What lessons we are supposed to draw from Gibraltar’s experience?
The first lesson to learn is that statistics should never be taken at face value. That figure of 118 percent, for example, is derived from the number of Gibraltans aged over 16 who have received a full dose of the vaccine. The true percentage of fully vaccinated Gibraltans must, therefore, be considerably less than 118 percent. While children and teenagers under the age of 16 remain unvaccinated, Covid will always have plenty of vulnerable human-beings to prey on.
Another lesson to be drawn from Gibraltar’s experience is that booster shots of the vaccine are essential. The waning effectiveness of the initial jab/s means that those particularly vulnerable to infection will need to be vaccinated again. If we’re talking about the Pfizer vaccine, that means giving the elderly and those suffering from chronic illnesses a third jab as soon as they approach six months since their second injection – maybe even sooner. Like the flu, Covid-19 is shaping-up to be one of those viruses that must be battled constantly. Getting your Covid shot seems likely to become an annual event.
It would also seem prudent to inoculate the nation’s children. The United States Centre for Disease Control has found that inoculating the over-5s would be both prudent and safe. Reducing sharply the number of potential Covid targets is, obviously, a key strategy for curbing its spread. New Zealand should, therefore, start protecting its children – and the families they live with – as soon as possible.
Perhaps the most important lesson to be drawn from the Gibraltan experience, however, is that vaccination is not a magic bullet. Yes, it makes it harder to contract the virus, and significantly ameliorates its worst effects, but it does not confer absolute immunity to Covid-19 – especially if you received your second jab four or five months back.
What’s happening in Gibraltar – and the Netherlands – and Singapore – and South Korea – is a timely reminder that all those other anti-Covid measures: social distancing; strictly limiting your indoor human interactions; and, most importantly, wearing a mask whenever random human contact is likely; remain vitally important weapons for keeping the virus at bay.
Unsurprisingly, New Zealanders (and Aucklanders especially) are looking forward to enjoying a kick-ass summer holiday. It has, after all, been a bloody awful year! Unfortunately, in facilitating this heartfelt wish, the Labour Government has set up the conditions for Delta’s rapid spread across the country. Undoubtedly, a number – perhaps quite a large number – of the vaccinated will, nevertheless, contract the virus. Some of them – hopefully a very small number – will get quite sick.
Just because you have printed-off your Vaccine Pass and/or downloaded it to your phone, does not mean you are now officially bulletproof. All those other instructions about wearing your mask, sanitising your hands, and keeping 2m distant from your fellow citizens, offer vital additional protection – alongside the Pfizer vaccine. They should not be treated as afterthoughts.
For the unvaccinated, however, the nationwide spread of the Delta Variant is promising the Summer from Hell. While the immune systems of those who are double-jabbed are fighting off the virus’s invasion force, unprotected immune systems will soon find themselves overwhelmed. In communities where the vaccination rate is low, the results are not likely to be pretty. The Delta Variant of Covid-19 is a killer. Many unvaccinated New Zealanders are going to die of it before Autumn.
If not for their own sake, then for the sake of those who love them, and rely upon them, I implore the vaccine resistant to give themselves a fighting chance.
The fate of heavily vaccinated Gibraltar should not be taken as proof of the inefficacy of the vaccine, but of the deadly efficiency of the Delta Variant. This thing is a Terminator every bit as deadly as Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Cyborg assassin. Remember Kyle Reese’s chilling words from the movie:
“Listen, and understand! That Terminator is out there! It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop… ever, until you are dead!”
We alredy have enough cases of Delta to demonstrate that it is no more deadly than a seasonal flu Mr Trotter. Not here anyway. And of those who have died of it in the last 3 months most have been on deaths door anyway and most are a demographic that would assume to habe been fully vaccinated. All those who’s vaccine status I know about have been vaxed.
The cases in Gibraltar are not especially unvaxed children.
It doesn’t matter how many boosters you get this virus will spread , and natural immunity will as it always has in the past, prove far more effective than the vaccine. It is likely to protect against future variants much better than the vaccine. Fortunately though the Delta variant is very contagious it is not very dangerous as is being demonstrated.
D J S
“no more deadly than a seasonal flu Mr Trotter. Not here anyway” yes lets focus only on what’s happening here and ignore the rest of the world… I’m told Waitomo (population 9,303) has had no cases… so therefore Covid has had no impact on NZ… nothing to see here move along… the head in the sand reasoning of a not very bright 5 year old
The reason for referring to our local stats is because the stats reported from overseas vary so widely that they can’t all be accurate. Testing regimes must vary wildly and make a huge difference to the apparent illness and mortality rates. Our stats leave out important info too; like how many cases are found because they seek medical care ? and how many are picked up by testing only due to likelihood of contact, who would never have known they had the virus at all otherwise.?
D J S
To Richard below, all you say also applies to the short and long term effects of the vaccine.
I tend to concur, David Stone. Absolutely in fact.
We are extremely lucky to be living in NZ at present, the response has been exemplary. The RoC (The ‘Religion of Conspiracy’ [Google it]) bang on about the chances of dying from Covid-19 as 0000000.01 Blah, blah, blah because that’s the only information they’re willing to accept from their Bishops & Apostles.
BUT – that is not being calculated from ‘CFR’ (Case Fatality Rate), they only ever give ‘Raw Data’.
Even the experts agree that the CFR is also NOT a true reflection of the risk because not every case of Covid-19 is recorded due to the person not being officially tested and diagnosed and also applying figures to an ongoing pandemic. (Currently 5.3 MILLION)
The currently accepted CFR for Sars-CoV is 10% [Venkatesh & Memish (2004), Munster et al. (2020)]
Whereas the CFR for ‘Seasonal Flu (US)’ is 0.1 to 0.2% [US CDC]
You appear to know your stats Tony. As well as how the CFR is operationalized and calculated. Most don’t. But that is quite understandable. Most of us are neither virologists or statisticians. But then of course there’s the widespread distrust of statistics. Often with good reason. Wasn’t it former UK Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli who said: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” You have to concede he had a point – one that is still valid today. Take for just one example the calculation of the employment rate. In the post-truth Covid world we now inhabit how are ordinary folk to know what is misinformation and what is presented as truth in the form of statistics. Hopefully, you have access to the gold standard Tony.
You don’t have to watch the covid news from oversea for very long to see the folly of opening up borders and business then trying to control the resultant spread of covid. Doesn’t happen. Nobody anywhere on planet earth has had any success with BAU. Restrictions are put back on to bring covid back under some semblance of control. We are about to open up, we are about to get covid spreading everywhere for the first time. I don’t hold much hope that we all won’t get covid sooner or later. This is gonna turn to custard. The only protection is the vax and that’s only against serious infection, it will spread across vaxed and unvaxxed alike. Restrictions are and were the only effective means to control it. Might be time to consider self restricting if the Gov’t won’t do it any longer. Or get covid.
+1 GreenBus
Spare a thought too, to those workers now put at risk by the open borders – At least 115,000 health workers have died from COVID: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-05-health-workers-died-covid.html
Also the amount of operations that have been cancelled have left people in NZ suffering. And they will suffer longer as more and more surgeries are cancelled due to Covid spreading out of control in NZ.
You can see why the government gave in, with the ranters out there, BUT, the anti government ranters never shut up, so when NZ gets full blown Covid, those that agreed with a nice holiday and open borders, but now lost a loved one or are very sick, are pretty quick to turn on the government and decry the lack of resources and preparedness for the outbreak, that they are choosing to make.
So they will lose votes, not gain them, in my opinion for their open borders stance.
I read that yesterday too and it’s timely.
The key word “eligible” just went to prove because you are very young and less likely to get crook from this disease does not make non vaccination safe for the restbof us. I now know indirectly of 3 families who have ended up catching this thing because a school student has brought it home. This part of the population too must be vaccinated as soon as possible.
And yes, one would be a fool to think we will ever return to “normal” again or at least not for a very long time.
The Labour government are going to take a hit no matter what they do. Aucklanders are suffering from covid fatigue and need to be cut loose or more and more will simply flout the rules. Any further attempt to restraint will be damaging politically … and when the virus spreads through our country who will be blamed? It won’t be the bleating opposition Nats and ACT – it will be Labour and to a lesser degree, the Greens.
As the virus spreads it is likely to mutate – who knows what will develop from this? Could be an even more virulent and contagious version or maybe something less damaging, but this is unlikely.
Why is it less likely to be less virulent. All most ALL science/reports/trials about virus’ say the opposite, is the case.
You’re absolutely correct when you say “The first lesson to learn is that statistics should never be taken at face value.” but you didn’t take the idea far enough. The numbers being presented by media require careful consideration before extracting any real meaning from them. Some examples:
With the virus now endemic, case numbers are mostly a function of the testing regime – more tests deliver more positive results so the media reporting case numbers in shock/horror headlines is just them trying to sell newspapers or clicks or something. The UK now uses rapid antigen tests so can do a lot more testing – so of course their case numbers go up. It’s meaningless.
Covid deaths aren’t really people dying of the virus, it’s people dying WITH the virus. So in a world where basically everyone has already caught the virus and most have recovered, all subsequent deaths become Covid deaths because their corpses will provide a positive test. So it’s another meaningless number. The only way to assess the fatalities due to Covid 19 is to examine annual death rates retrospectively, counting the ‘excess deaths’ in a given year. Here is Sweden’s:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/
See that little blip in 2020? That’s Covid 19. Taking into account the fact that most in that blip were in old age homes, hospices and dementia wards, it’s easy to see why the oh-so-liberal and educated Swedes thought it was better to suffer that blip in the numbers rather than impose draconian restrictions on the rest of the population.
Here is the breakdown of deaths by age for Aussie. Most fatalities were near their end of life and well past the national average lifespan:
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-case-numbers-and-statistics#cases-and-deaths-by-age-and-sex
And where is your statistical evidence on those with underlying health conditions who weren’t near their end of life or as you so kindly put it, well past the national average lifespan Dr Andrew. As Maori and PI are at risk groups with underlying health conditions putting them at greater risk of dying from Delta.
Yes, Andrew, there are indeed lies, damned lies, and statistics, as former UK Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli once put it. Or as rephrased by Chris “the first lesson to learn is that statistics should never be taken at face value.” Take the idea further shall we and scrutinize the numbers being presented by media before extracting any real meaning from them. On the face of it you present a convincing argument Andrew. While not fashionable at present imho we can all do with a healthy dose of scepticism. That much I agree. But how do how do we know Andrew you have access to the gold standard and are not simply making it all up to support your view. I presume a layman’s view. Nothing wrong with that but are you sure you’ve got all the facts correct? Oh, one could also say that about the media. Again agreed.
Look forward to the book.
“Just because you have printed-off your Vaccine Pass and/or downloaded it to your phone, does not mean you are now officially bulletproof”. Now to that: Indeed.
But this sentence also condenses the partiality of your effort of yesterday effort into a single sentence. Lovely that it is one of your own.
On yesterday’s effort, of course the ugly motivations you pointed to will be present in some people, maybe many. Of course those motivations will be surfaced prominently on social media. But there are equally obviously a number who take an idea like the above, and say “a mandate is not acceptable unless we know the authorities have turned over every stone in test, trace, prophylaxis, treatment and healthcare capacity spaces” or “unless we understand how the authorities parse a vax/non-vax distinction with a covid/not-covid distinction.” One such person is your co-TDB blogger John Minto. Is he a Good Ol Boy with a tiki-torch?
Equally, in suggesting following up that sentence in today’s effort with an idea that it should not be “taken as proof of the inefficacy of the vaccine” and illusions to following USCDC aka “The Science”, here again is a serious partiality. Is there no partial truth in inefficacy stuff? Ought we believe everything the CDC says? Patently absurd to dismiss such questions.
Is this an elaborate test of your audience faculties? Is it trolling? Is it plain old human partiality and inconsistency, normal, messy and lovely?
We need to be able to just come out and acknowledge that this pandemic has surfaced an epistemological crisis, and has exposed institutional decay in unprecedented ways. Among other things obvs. Not easy to know what to do in those conditions, , even for one of your formidable intellect, so I don’t mean to be critical.
Good luck and kia kaha in your search for syntheses – we need it mate.
Interesting points Chris. And that one of looking behind the stats, that the unvaccinated under 16s was it, are not counted but are a dynamic part of the Covid soup.
Good article, one of Trotter’s better ones.
Perhaps a better analogy than the Terminator would be the War with the Newts. It is a classic political satire written by a Czech author about the rise of Nazism before WWII (but it pokes fun at racism, colonialism, nationalism etc too). In Czechia people read and hear about a race of salamanders (newts) who, after being discovered and then treated like crap by humans, rebel. They then become as hardline and mimic humans and declare they need to blow up and sink vast areas of land for their underwater living space.
Initially Czechs think they are fine, the newts are only attacking humans alongside the coastline, they are waaaaay inland, they are safe. Then one newt pops up in the Vistula river in Prague. Still people think they are fine, it’s just one newt. Then others pop up and they are invaded and their land is blown up.
The denial by right-wingers that covid isn’t real, or is not coming, or is just a bad flu, are all just the same. It’s a tragedy, a farce. What is happening in Gibraltar and elsewhere will happen here in some form or another, even with the average (for a high income country) vaccination rates we have. We can also look at what has happened in similar high income countries with similar population sizes and similar vaccination rates (or even higher), like Denmark, Ireland and Singapore.
Well, for a start, 118% is a meaningless statistic. I was tempted to read no further when I saw that.
Apart from that, not much to disagree with. It’s pretty obvious and should be common sense but hold on, common sense is dead isn’t it?!
Yes, it took 50 odd comments. What does “118 percent of Gibraltar’s 32,000 inhabitants” mean? A typo Chris?
They have Spanish workers coming in and out for work each day.They’re vaccinated too.
Thanks. 18% of the workforce.
No, 18% of the total population coming in and out for work each day.
What’s the IFR for Covid?
This article showcases disgraceful fear mongering. You should be ashamed of yourself.
The Left are so soft, it is embarrassing to observe. Perhaps the source of this extreme brittleness is Lefty entitlement? Anyway, it’s awful!
Pull yourself together. No one like a cry baby.
You are a fucking muppet. How is it deadly? In NZ in 14 months it has by govt stats killed 5 people, 2 in their 90s, 1 in 80s, one in 50s, I believe all with serious other illnesses. Last but not least the guy who died of covid by being shot to death. You are a fucking liar and I look forward to seeing you and your chum Bradbury at Nuremberg 2.
How come your truth about the mass hysteria conjured up by the fascistic Adern government and the promulgation of misinformation by TDB gets published, and my fundamental truth about the fascistic Adern government and the promulgation of misinformation by TDB doesn’t?
Keep telling yourself more people need to be vaccinated if it makes you feel better. Meanwhile, Gibraltar has the world’s highest vaccination rate with most adults now having had THREE shots. The result? Their case load and deaths are rising daily and are highest they have ever been. Thesr ‘vaccines’ do not work. Immune systems do.
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