New TVNZ Poll – Winners & Losers

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Latest TVNZ Poll is out and despite 3 months in de facto house arrest for our largest city, Labour + Greens STILL hold onto the majority!

They are like an ABBAs greatest hits tour, sure you are sick to fucking death of ‘Dancing Queen’ but fuck me if you don’t get up and dance when it comes on.

There are of course winners and losers.

Winners

Jacinda & Labour: The simple truth is despite all the bitching, all the complaints, all the pain and all the fear of Covid, the majority of New Zealanders stand with the science and stand with the Government DESPITE 3 months of de facto house arrest, this is a remarkable achievement for Labour & Jacinda’s leadership. The past 16 weeks have been the worst in terms of conditions for voters and while moving to level 3 has alleviated that, it will also see a surge in hospitalizations but they will be manageable. If this is the floor of Labour’s support and Jacinda can give the country the Christmas they are begging for, all of the criticisms from the Right and the woke will dissipate and Jacinda will rise in 2022.

Chloe: The Greens are perfect for free the nipple rallies with cycling militant Trans ally mommy bloggers, not so good on the economic neoliberal hegemony. They’ve spent a year harvesting the low hanging fruit of identity politics while doing nothing meaningful on poverty, homelessness or climate change.

Their only hope is Chloe who appears for the first time in the preferred PM polls

Chloe is a unique talent. She speaks with the energy of the new voting generation in a language that empowers and challenges. She is an incredible communicator and if she had the Leadership, she could dominate political debate.

What could be more radical than the youngest Political Leader in NZ History?

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

Chloe as Leader is a 15% Party. Imagine Jacinda as Prime Minister with Chloe as Deputy.

To be politically relevant, the Greens need to be needed by Labour. To do that they need to take Labour voters.

Chloe can do that. Marama and James can’t.

Meanwhile the planet burns.

 

Losers

Maori Party: Losing half their entire support in one Poll  should surprise no one. The Maori Party have been terrible during the pandemic, offensively describing Labour’s policy as ‘modern genocide’ on par with the ‘Squid Games’ while getting into a fight over racist shoes!!!??? Their bizarre pettiness mixed with the ego of Rawiri has found a barren electoral response from antiVaxx Maori who see the vaccine as evil cracker magic. They have mutated into a cartoonish joke, someone should really get fired for this terrible strategy.

Green Party: 9% at a time when Labour are so open to inequality arguments is an enormous failure. The pathetic COP26 outcome has highlighted the mediocrity of James Shaw and the foolishness of signing up with Labour in the first place. All the Greens have gained for their hollow Ministerships is collusion with mediocrity plus some identity politics wins. The Greens don’t know if they are Arthur or Martha and if they did they would need a 7month hui to discuss pronoun use.

National Party: They continue to languish sub 30% DESPITE all the problems Labour has. National couldn’t get laid in a monkey brothel while wearing banana costumes. They have no clear political philosophy other than ‘we hate Labour’.

Conclusion

The problem for the Right is that National are not benefiting enough and ACT are cannabilizing that vote.

Those who are angry with Jacinda over Covid on the Left are going to the Greens but the majority of the center is staying.

The danger for ACT & National is that all they’ve had for the past 18months is the hope Covid spreads or that Jacinda  gets stuck in a never ending lockdown, that she is on the verge of breaking through all this means ACT & National’s criticism becomes as vapid as the antiVaxxers.

If Labour’s 90% vaccination rate plan works, the bitterness of being locked down for 4 months will dissipate.

 

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34 COMMENTS

  1. The real surprise is how the heck does Colmar Brunton find 1000 people who would vote for ANY of those choices?
    My last hope, Social Credit, have dropped off the menu with their latest crazy vaccine stunt.
    Looks like next Election Day will involve anything but voting 🙁

    • Another thing that they’ve ditched from these surveys that masquerade as polls is the ‘undecided’.
      I’m guessing that number is well over 10%.

    • The numbers add to 95%, so I guess there is 5% “other”? I suspect if they had “not voting for any of these clowns”, “they’re all as bad each other”, “who cares?” etc, you end up with a total of maybe 65-70%.

      • This is the number. “655,094”
        The number of people who didn’t vote in 2020. They were registered to vote but they didn’t.
        This group of Anti’s come from this group of disgruntled tribes. Anti Government, Anti 1080, Anti Cindy, Anti Mandates, Anti Vaxx Anti Climate taxes Anti Vehicle taxes etc … They have one common goal and that is to remove Cindy and her government.

        They are real and will vote in the next election.

        • I dunno. I think there is a block of people (~25-30%) that just don’t vote, ever. I also think this block slowly grows over time as more and more become increasingly disillusioned with the lack of change in every election they thought they voted for. I think in the US just 65% of people vote now for precisely this reason. When we’ve just knee-jerked between John Key (technically Bill English) and Jacinda Adern and getting business as usual regardless of what you think either of these folks will give you (and despite the rhetoric on sites like this one and Whale Oil), people will just give up with thinking you create “real” change with voting.

          • AND THEY’RE NOT WRONG the disillusion with politics because of repeated lies and failures on both sides leads to two things

            neolib business as usual

            then….trump or brexit

            their inaction will lead to bad things and destroy their nice middle class stasis….. the shame is the carnage that upheaval will inevitably bring

  2. I would have liked to see a poll taken only in Auckland. Results would be interesting. I don’t know if the pollsters take into account the difference in feeling between say Auckland and Christchurch and if their polling response spread was weighted evenly nationwide. If you were polling Wellington favoured respondent I would imaging the polls as they stand are accurate.

  3. Labour should thank Judith Collins, nothing more than that.

    If Labour were otherwise a capable government, able to deliver on their major policies and start genuinely addressing things like housing, they would be safe. But they are anything but.

    Yes, the Covid winter of discontent is taking them down but equally is the fact they were so inexcusably underprepared for Delta. That the lack of preparedness was substituted for the only other option, the 90% vax rate this prevent carnage should not be seen as careful planning, it should be looked at exactly like a reckless Captain going one on one with an iceberg vs his ship. Yes the lifeboats option look like careful planning but really?

    Labour are one decent National Party leader off losing the next election. And that does not fill me with warmth.

  4. Two years out from the election this poll is almost irrelevant especially with all the emotion involved in lockdowns and vaccine mandates. The only numbers that are relevant at this time are those alongside one person. Judith Collins. Most of us are certain Judith won’t be leading the National Party into the next election so it’s just a matter of when will she be dumped and what will be the final catalyst? A poll result like this could well be that catalyst. The fact Judith has not been able to capitalize on Ardern’s failings is very telling. It reminds me of Andrew Little during his stint as Labour leader. He was never able to get any traction in the preferred PM polls and even when John Key resigned as PM with immediate effect, Andrew Little still couldn’t take a trick. It is interesting also that despite Christopher Luxon saying he was not ready to take over as National Party leader, he’s polling just one point behind Collins. Safe to assume his rating would dramatically jump when he inevitably does put his hat in the ring.

  5. “They are like an ABBAs greatest hits tour, sure you are sick to fucking death of ‘Dancing Queen’ but fuck me if you don’t get up and dance when it comes on.” – that’s because it was ABBA’s only truly great song with some emotional content and story as well as a memorable melody. Waterloo comes second because that was their break out single, made a huge impact, and is not too bad of a song. The rest of their hits are basically advertising jingles that you can’t get out of your head even though you want to.

  6. TVNZ poll….
    That’s like taking Unicorns seriously.
    TVNZ… isn’t.
    It’s not television and it no longer belongs to AO/NZ. It is, however, a corporate lap dancer sprayed down with flea powder. And by flea powder, I mean the powder that attracts fleas.
    Lobbyists, advertisers and foreign billionaires slaver it TVNZ’s fly buttons to push their particular agendas while it keeps us terminally muted in the dim light of an illegal gambling den full of money launderers.
    Therefore, any and all results from polls it undertakes to mutate for its corporate besties down dark allies of lies, misinformation, devious intentions and sundry other high bull shittery while we must endure the spectacle of homelessness and poverty on a rich few islands means diddly squat to me.
    @ MB. You write:
    “Chloe as Leader is a 15% Party. Imagine Jacinda as Prime Minister with Chloe as Deputy.
    To be politically relevant, the Greens need to be needed by Labour. To do that they need to take Labour voters.”
    No, I can’t imagine that.
    Chloe Swarbrick must take the national party voter. Specifically the farmer vote. If Chloe Swarbrick can do that, she’ll not only have the progressive urban youth vote on her side but she’ll also have the money. All of it.
    Jacinda Adern’s fucked. She’s stuck in terminal no persons land lumbered by the spectre of roger douglas’s enduring treachery. She’s still trying to chase with the hounds and run with the hares. She’s, in effect, trying her best to hide the past while there can be no hiding what happened, and is still happening, to AO/NZ.
    Like climate change, if looming catastrophe is to be avoided there needs to be a massive, immediate and transformative avalanche of real change.
    AO/NZ heads must roll, global financial activities must be investigated, royal commissions of inquiry must begin
    AO/NZ’s primary industry Farmers must be lead away from current farming practices and integrated into modern, urban society so as to be informed and involved and Chloe Swarbrick could do that better than anyone else I know of in politics.

  7. Do think Chloe has some very good friends in high places in the media? I suspect that her name has been thrown in on purpose to pump her image up, the same way that the media did by creating Jacinda-mania after nine years of doing nothing but getting beaten at every election by Nikki Kaye.

    No wonder people distrust the NZ media. Before the election Chloe had many media ‘articles’ about all sort of rubbish, one I recall was that she owned a sofa! Why? Why did she deserve more attention than any other MP, noting that back then she was a list MP. But our beloved media changed that didn’t they?

    I like Chloe, she’s far more sane than Golriz, Marama or the MP for Tijuana will ever be. But she gets a lot of puff media at every turn for someone who doesn’t appear to be doing much, so much so that it looks the media cabal in NZ is trying to replace Jacinda as their darling already.

  8. I had to laugh at the way ‘Covid Tova’ spun it around.

    The facts:
    1. Labour is now consistently falling in the polls
    2. National and ACT are consistently rising in the polls

    What she said:
    1. Yippee! Labour could still scrape a majority with the help of the Greens
    2. A beat-up over Collins perceived popularity.

  9. polls exist to provide PR wonks with todays soundbite.

    you pay a sympathetic pollster, they duly provide a sympathetc result from a carefully very carefully selected small sample that your client then crows over in the docile media, who accept the validity of the process with no analysis or complaint.
    we all pretend they signify something or other and the news-cycle rotates again.

    without details in actual reports of sample size/categories type of interviewee they’re about as much use as the next ‘superfood’ scientific paper.

  10. “National leader Judith Collins says her approval rating with voters has dropped because Labour voters don’t like realising they’ve been swindled by the party.”

    And there it is, it’s all Labour supporters fault Collins approval rating has dropped, who’d have thought.

    Now, with that intellect, does anyone seriously think Collins is Prime Minister material?

    • Collins *is* the muck the National Party have scraped off the bottom of the barrel.
      It’s an indictment on that organisation that they have been happy to elevate her to, and keep her in the role of, leader for well over a year now.
      They’ve actually managed to make the creepy ACT hologram look good by comparison, which is quite some feat!!

      Jesus wept – whilst the left is barely centrist in political outlook but harbour some folk with ability, the right have not only their usual execrable policies, but some seriously suspect people trying to sell them.

      Our political landscape is a f@cking desert at the moment.

      • A party such as National are, that just makes shit up, aka Woodlouses mysterious homeless man, will never be a serious contender and the German can wishful think all he likes, National are yesterday’s party, he just needs to look at the rise of the leader of the opposition to see the evidence. Chloe, Ardern and Wood are a shoe in, in Auckland.

    • Bertir Bertie Bertir Poor Bertie
      Nobody seriously thinks that. Collins is gone. It’s a done deal. You’re just scared of the alternative…National regrouping without Collins. And you should be scared! Best of all, all it needs to be is a semi-credible half-baked alternative to what this govt is serving up – which is a regular menu of fuckups and ill conceived ideas. So when that half-baked National regroup happens, as far as Auckland goes anyway, your beloved adored devine Jacinda and this inept kindergarten version of a Labour Party…let’s just say they are all fucked! Toast! Burnt toast! It’s over in for them here in Auckland! You don’t live there so you wouldn’t know, but Jacinda would have been much much better off not coming here on her “I’m scared of Covid so I only went to two safe and woke places’ PR visit – another cluster fuck we didn’t appreciate at all!

  11. Given my four siblings — ‘god’ help me (the one who got his bachelors at 18 also died early) — I am so, so glad all our parties are rational and democratic. Have a conscience. Being up-raised in either the welfare state or from people who were even our Righties can’t do the American thing.

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