Taxpayers Union Poll – What if pundits are wrong & this is National’s death spiral?

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
64
2690

Taxpayers Astro Turf is out and even their polling has Labour stratospheric at 44.8% but the real trend is once again ACT canabalizing National vote.

Now TDB were the first to point out that what happened at the election with ACT scoring such a leap in the polls wasn’t a one off protest vote from disappointed National voters angry at an ugly campaign, we had been pointing out that ever since the woke handed free speech ammunition to ACT, David Seymour had become a lightening rod for right wing values in a social media world more focused on cancelling people or giving platform for White supremacist Qanon lunatics.

The insanity of the social media extremes made ACT look moderate which is terrifying because ACT policy is hard right…

  • Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
  • Interest back on all student loans
  • No Kiwsaver subsidy
  • Cancel winter energy payment
  • Dump all climate crisis legislation
  • no more best start payments for families with new borns
  • cut welfare payments
  • no tax credits for research and development
  • cuts to working for families
  • $7b a year cut in public services
  • Abolish Maori seats

…the middle electorate will look at a hard right ACT and a socially conservative National and run fur the hills in 2023.

ACT will eclipse National next year during the woke Hate Speech legislation and the remaining National vote will prop up NZ First as a hand break to the Greens.

- Sponsor Promotion -

What if the pundits are wrong again and there is no recovery for National? Their demographic are dying off, and their ideological loyalty has gone. All National will be are a few South Island electorates and the pretense of a national identity they barely recognize any longer.

ACT and the extreme polarization they reflect are the new unhinged Right wing.

 

 

Party Support Change from last month
Labour 44.8% ↓1.0
National 22.5% ↑1.2
ACT 16.6% ↑1.7
Greens 6.4% ↓3.2
NZ First 3.6% ↑1.1
Māori 1.5% ↑0.3

Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.

If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media

64 COMMENTS

  2. Thank you for the list of ACT Party policies Martyn. I have written them down and shall use them as extensively as I can.

  3. Yes, Nashnull gets closer to the end with each reactionary conservative boomer funeral–as does NZ First really. Younger Neo Lib tories may well have to move to ACT with the Incels and gun lovers!

    One answer to Mr Seymour’s policy list is to put up some easy to understand class left ones.
    –Free Wifi and fare free public transport nationwide
    –Basic income to all citizens via IRD
    –Free tertiary and training and life time education
    –Restore power generation & supply to full public ownership
    –Capital gains tax on more than two properties
    –Rent control, State house & apartment mega build, incl tiny houses for homeless
    –Urgent move to an Eco nation with sustainable energy and farming (bye bye Industrial level Dairy)
    –National coastal shipping line and rail network
    –Ditch 5 Eyes and become a truly independent Pacific nation with bi lateral mutually beneficial trade agreements and relations with other countries

    Aotearoa NZ’s future is as a non aligned Eco socialist country–Labour and Greens MPs will go for that like a glass of cold chunder–but the demands have to put up for the boomer replacement generations to consider. Neo liberal orthodoxy has locked out other ideas for decades now and it is time to move on.

    • Hi, Tiger Mountain,
      I agree with some of your policies but think some of them need a bit to be added:
      – Free Wifi and free public transport nationwide, yes, but provided you can get everywhere by public transport (e.g. today you cannot get to Mangawhai etc.), the frequency of vehicles and of stops must be adequate (no good travelling somewhere by bus and to have to walk half an hour to get to your destination) and the system of information must be adequate (timetables at the stops, voice announcements about stops on the buses, trains etc).
      – Free tertiary and training education, absolutely agree. But it must be restricted to New Zealanders and to one study. If e.g.someone wants to study again after finishing one study, he/she will have to pay as well as for prolonged studies due to poor results.
      – Capital gain tax on more than two properties – agree.
      – State house and apartment mega build including tiny emergency houses – agree but there must be some rules applied, e.g. if the state owned houses or flats are rented, the people who live there must be responsible for the everyday maintenance of the property and pay for any damage.
      – National coastal shipping line and rail network – agree, but there can be some privately owned ones as well.

      – Basic income to all citizens is a nice idea provided the citizens are angels. We are not, so rather no.
      – Urgent move to an Eco nation – agree as for waste management, pollution of ocean, but disagree about CO2 levels. Don’t believe it is caused by humans, don’t believe it is harmful, contrary, it is beneficial for all green plants. And more, if NZ leaves these policies there will be resources to finance those that work for people.
      – To become an independent Pacific nation – again nice idea in an ideal world which the one we live in is not. I remember when in Slovakia we had to decide via referendum if we want to be a part of the EU. Many people were not very enthusiastic about it but the alternative of becoming the ally of Russia pushed the decision to yes.

  4. Old conservatives will never die – simply recreate themselves – just check out Rimmer and his rag-tag group of supporters giving the conservatives a “rark-up”. The reality is that the right have a mortgage on the capital in Aotearoa New Zealand and I cannot see any them parting with their inherited wealth any time soon.

    Criticism of the left is harsh given the complexity of our current situation. Key and his cronies had plain sailing for the most part – apart from the Christchurch quake – and still managed to butcher the economy … not to mention health, education and welfare. The left of given the task of fixing this and then improving things – but this can’t and won’t happen overnight. Then there was Covid.

  5. Left (and right) have become pretty useless terms now. If only there was some word for a political party that represents the interests of people who have to work to survive as opposed to those whose wealth works for them.

    New labour = no labour

    Labour’s greatest crime is continuing a monetary policy that effectively cuts the wage of every single working person by 10% to 15% each year. Forget having a union that negotiates a pay rise, we have a government that cuts our wage by a half every five years.

    I hope nobody responds with the CPI propaganda bullshit that inflation is low. That’s a government lie. You only have to look at the price of real assets (house anyone?) to see where inflation is really at.

    • Inflation is the worst it’s been in a decade or more. Out in the real world people are double-taking at their supermarket receipts and frowning at the cost of a kg of cheese and mince, and a few lamb shanks – or the cost of fuel and rent. We’re all talking about it. There is a rising swell of grassroots discontent without any particular target. David Seymour seems to understand this subtly increasing radicalization (incoherent as it is), and that’s why he’s surging in the polls, despite the regular scoldings he gets.

      The left needs to pull finger, COVID is killing the dominant political status quo as surely as any individual.

      • “We’re all talking about it.”

        None of the people I’ve talked to in the past week talked about it. Granted it’s only a couple of dozen in the flesh and several others on line.

  6. “Dump all climate crisis legislation” ?!

    If you’re christian you should think again about voting for Act. The Book of Revelation plagues are all about climate change. Any mention of fire is about climate change. At least it can be interpreted that way. If you think otherwise you most definitely could be wrong. Many major events that have happened in our life time can be seen in the metaphors of Revelation. I’m not even christian, and it’s clear (it’s not proof of the christian god btw)

    Don’t worry, no one will be killed by god. Being killed is just a metaphor for the most part (climate change events could kill you)

    If I have the next metaphor correct (chapter 12), a major recession will occur shortly (no, not in some kind of god time where 2000 years is one second)

  7. ACT:
    “Provide every child with a Student Education Account. A child will receive $250,000 of taxpayer-funded education over their life, but parents have little choice in how it’s spent. ACT will empower parents by placing this money in a Student Education Account. Parents will be able to use it at any registered educational institution that will accept their child’s enrolment, public or private.”

    Sounds like time to get in the banking business or the Education Accounts business.
    Ministry of education won’t be running the scheme; “Reduce the number of back office bureaucrats at the Ministry of Education by 50 per cent, saving $240 million a year. We will put this money back into frontline education.”

    Schools obviously will employ people to do with the book-keeping or have agencies doing it:

    “ACT will give every child a Student Education Account at the age of two. Each year until a student is 18, $12,000 will be placed into that Account. At the age of 18, they will receive a further $30,000 for tertiary education, with up to $50,000 available top academic achievers through a scholarship program. Over half of students will receive a scholarship.

    Parents will be able to spend that money at any registered education institution, public or private, that will accept their child’s enrolment.”

    Accept their child’s enrolment? I’d love the job or ‘accepting’ or not.
    “Sorry, we have an over supply of kids trying to get in but your child with learning disabilities is going to be a cost us a lot. I suggest you take him to ….”
    “Sure, we have plenty trying to get in but we’d love to have your son here. He’s a great rugby player and will bring in a lot of sponsorship.”

    • oh @ I, I whole heartedly agree dear chap/chapess. It’d be rather gorgeous too if people (including our dear leader and her speech writers and advisors, along with specimens who claim to be of the 4th Estate) realised that the word ‘brought’ is still a word and that ‘brought’ and ‘bought’ are not the same thing.
      It’s be thoroughly gorgeous.
      But nit picking is now so 20th Century and in this lovely little nayshun that punches above its weight, there are many that struggle to get an education. Let alone a decent feed or a roof over their head

  10. Has the Jacinda Dictatorship done anything they promoted in there campaign? Serious question there. I’m feeling squeezed out of Auckland and soon my country. This is the saddest govt i’ve seen in 40 years. So much hope, so little follow through.

Comments are closed.