Jacinda’s ‘go hard or go to Australia’ strategy will work with this outbreak.
The numbers are reflecting infections inside bubbles of those with Covid, it isn’t showing an exponential explosion of sickness.
Lockdown has worked and I think we will be out of this within 3 weeks.
But what happens next?
Our slow vaccination rate has been mostly dictated to by supply constraints. The incompetence of DHB bureaucracy to ensure GPs could vaccinate and the criminal laxness over saliva testing demands for heads to roll but that’s never going to happen.
Labour have relied on an underfunded Health system riven by corporate interests.
We don’t have extra ICU beds nor do we have fully vaccinated frontline staff.
Grant has almost spent all the money he put aside for a rainy day and it’s still raining.
The vaccine is increasingly seen as less an outright protection and more a basic means to prevent mass hospitalizations and death with research showing this will have to be an annual vaccination event.
The debate is so polarized that even bringing these glaring criticisms to light will have you cancelled by the roving woke online.
Here’s the truth.
The grim modeling tells us that even at 90% vaccination rates and with no lockdowns implemented, we will see 11400 hospitalizations and 1030 dead.
No politician, not even David Seymour could survive images of parked Ambulances jammed together outside hospitals because there are not enough beds.
NZ will politically freak out at seeing mass graves.
The naked truth is that we don’t have the hospital, morgue or cemetery capacity to deal with that kind of event.
So.
We have no choice but to use regional lockdowns and national lockdowns when regional ones fail alongside a fucking arsehole of an MIQ system that is far more limited in its intake than it is now, alongside all frontline staff being vaccinated alongside a mass building of hospital, morgue and cemetery capacity on top of an insistent vaccination campaign.
It is only when we have 90% vaccination alongside the hospital and morgue capacity increase that we can start being less restrictive on MIQ.
Expect Kiwis dumb enough to travel who can’t get back in and migrant workers furious they can’t bring their family in to fill the pages of Stuff with their anger and pain, but the Government will face a backlash ten times that if they allow Delta to slip back in.
The danger of Labour’s plan was us getting hit before we were vaccinated – well that moment is here.
Eradication is the only plan because there is no Plan B.
So:
- Viciously tight MIQ
- Regional lockdowns that becomes National if they fail.
- Saliva tests
- More vaccination programs including better community outreach
- Infrastructure for annual vaccinations
- Mass build up of hospital and morgue capacity.
Delta will become endemic, Labour either move heaven and earth to implement the 6 points or they will be judged by their current failures and not their previous successes.
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1. Establish exactly why this virus escaped MIQ and fix it. Or we could get another from the danger place, even during lockdown.
2. Establish purpose built quarantine facilities near an it airport capable of handlng wide body aircraft but in a to small centre to stop Covid outbreaks demolishing Auckland’s economy every quarter.
3. Get the hell on with vaccinations. I can see them running out before the next shipment, such is the PR campaign currently underway to compensate for the poor job done thus far. It’s looks like the government went all fiscally prudent when it came to buying them, hence the miserly rate pre lockdown.
4. And can someone, anyone, think ahead and plan in this government? Hipkins is always on the back foot reacting like “what the fuck is this Covid thing?” and Jacindas impromptu ad libs at briefings to cover her governments myopia is getting farcical.
Honestly team, surely Delta was not unexpected, was it?
The Epsilon variant will burst onto the scene and we will do all this again.
At some point we have to stop expecting the government to save us from this way of dying. It has been an interesting experiment for the country but perhaps there are other areas of public health that need some resources and focus.
It’s actually the “Lambda Variant” that is apparently almost impervious to (the current) vaccines:
https://news.yahoo.com/vaccine-resistant-lambda-variant-us-193100413.html
So far it isn’t very prevalent, but they used to say that about the Delta Variant too. Given that the vaccines last just 5-6 months, it’s just a matter of time before we’re back at square one regardless.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/27/biden-says-us-health-officials-are-considering-covid-booster-shots-within-5-months.html
I doubt many think this is a realistic option (given how long it takes to get even one shot in), even those here who have up to now bought into the notion that the (current) vaccines are the solution to ending the pandemic. They are clearly not.
What the hell happened to epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, iota, and kappa variations then????? I had read that coronavirus mutate fast but this is seriously impressive.
Our total health system needs being refocused from a $cost model to a people first focused one.
Yes Geoff and spend as much as it takes, then the rabid rightwing blood letting will begin with the “governments waste of money”.
What happens after this lockdown ends?
Simple: we go back to fucking the planet as quickly as possible via CO2 emissions, and killing Maui dolphins; now down to 54, a reported drop of 14% in the past 5 years.
WHY LOCKDOWN IS THE BEST SOLUTION TILL CHRISTMAS
Despite being a long way down the line in the gobal supply chain for getting vaccines , our covid free status meant we didn’t have to panic too much but now Delta has changed all that .We are all terrified of being another NSW.
1. Its now a race to get vaccinated and we are gaining acceleration .
a.The combination of a good vaccine supply and the fear of rapid spread has produced a really strong public response to forward bookings and getting the jab .Good news.
b.In addition ,the rollout to mass vax centers,DHB hubs , ethnic and occupational programs, Gp’s and Pharmacies finally means we are gaining significant momentum .At 80,000 a day, that’s around 500,000 a week and for a Labour govt under immense pressure, more good news .
However we are still very vulnerable until the program is complete.Why ?
2. NZ is in a poor position with a community delta outbreak ,as we currently we only have 25% of the population with a double Jab and the health system just won’t cope in a sustained large outbreak ,as we have one of the lowest levels of intensive care beds in the OECD. That is why lockdown and elimination has to work or we are in very serious trouble .
According to Linda Clark and Mike Williams on RNZ this Sunday morning (28/8/21),hospital services and intensive care beds are crucial in a large outbreak and we have one of the lowest bed ratios in the developed world .Per 100,000 people Germany, 38 beds /OZ 8 beds /UK 6 beds /NZ only 4 beds .Oh shit .Better not get sick .
In NZ ,demand would easily out strip supply if the outbreak can’t be controlled .No care and no vaccine when you need it most is not going to get you reelected. Labour has known this for a long time .Hence it has to be elimination rather than suppression .
b. SYD is already under stress with 2/3rds of intensive care beds already full (at 800 covid cases per day ) and has yet to peak at projected 6000 per day in 2 months .
Its a trainwreck, and the “soft lockdown “in SYD will almost certainly haunt Scott Morrison in terms of party popularity and reelection prospects. The recent Australian Scott Morrison mantra of ” we are going to have to live with covid ” ,when only 20% of the population is vaccinated is a total mismanagement , will overwhelm the health system and cause significant extra suffering and mortality . Its a complete fuck up and really means “some people are going to have to die with covid ” because we got it wrong . Jacinda and Labour are also very aware of their political survival , and opted for a” hard lockdown ” to avoid becoming a NSW or worse because they know our health system has only 1/2 the intensive care capacity of Australia .Its lockdown success or goodnight nurse for Labour.
3. If Jacinda wants a third term ,she must win against delta in Auckland , at least until Christmas 2021 ,when all those who want a vaccine have got one .To go down the NSW road with an uncontrolled outbreak , low vaccinations and a worse health system is political suicide .
4. The 10 % of people who deliberately refuse a vaccine will not impact Govt popularity . If everyone who wants a vaccine can be protected before Delta becomes endemic then its not the Govt’s fault the ” deliberately unvaccinated” got sick and they will be marginalised by the 80%+ who have done the right thing to protect themselves and the community.The health system will also be more able to cope with 95% of the vaccinated population not requiring hospitalisation .
5. I personally think delta is so invasive that to stamp out the current outbreak is only around 50/50 .Its a coin toss .The whole country and Labour’s management team are still on the knife edge and unlike Martyn, I do not agree delta’s control is a forgone conclusion .This is our most significant challenge to date, and we are all racing to get protection ,in a persistant fog of corrosive uncertainty .
6. But putting affordable million dollar houses , child poverty , and mental health issues to one side for the moment, if Saint Jacinda can defeat the Delta Dragon to safely vaccinate our nation by Christmas ,she will have gone a long long way to earning the right to a third term .
This may well be be her greatest battle and if successful collectively ; our greatest victory .
In the mean time , we are still all holding our breath .
But
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