Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Right up, Left down & how gender defines 2023 election strategy


Latest Roy Morgan Poll has Labour and Greens drop with National and ACT up.

This poll captures the full impact of the Hate Speech fiasco and lo and fucking behold up are now up to 13% while Greens sunk to 10%

Labour – 39.5%
Greens – 10%

National – 29%
ACT – 13%

The Maori Party are on an impressive 2.5%, NZ First at 2% and TOP at 3%.

The rise of ACT – as predicted by TDB – is being driven by them now being seen as the Right Wing Values Party. 2020 wasn’t a fluke, they are now a significant political player because  woke culture war backlashes have propelled them forward.

Could the Woke please stop handing ACT ammunition?

The interesting breakdown on gender by Roy Morgan gives some insight into how the 2023 election strategies might play out.

TDB Recommends

I’ve argued for some time that Key’s successes at winning 3 terms was driven by his appeal to 30year old Labour voting women, they stuck with National in 2017 but moved by Jacinda’s Covid leadership caused a seismic shift towards Labour.

So Labour plus the Greens dominate in the female vote where as ACT and National dominate in the make vote.

There is no way for National or ACT to win that female vote back, indeed the hard right element of both parties means they are likely to scare more away, but what it does allow for is National and ACT to raid the left for their male voters, especially those alienated by the woke culture war stuff.

It’s no surprise that Simon Bridges is releasing a book on masculinity next month.

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  1. If Labeen want to win they need to give up on their woke ideas, stop trying to criminalise peoples fundamental right to free speech, religious and other views and keep the existing laws which criminalise violence only! Otherwise we are in Kafka and PRC territory!

    Also Labeens dream to make all the tenants homeless or in emergency housing with more gold impractical woke standards to rental housing to demolish what little original housing we still have in favour of high rise leaky slums run Grenfell style with woke and big business council committees overseeing everything. On social media they are even “woking” the motor home industry with some new rule that people seem up in arms about! You won’t even be able to live in your motor home soon!

    NZ didn’t get rail because the roads were deemed so ‘unsafe’ we all have to travel at 30km and they needed constant dig ups for safety. Little wonder why we now need to destroy our streams and rivers with often 75% of landfill coming from the construction industry. Wow those huge carbon emissions from concrete, or airline emissions don’t seem to be worried about as much as ensuring everyone has to grind to a halt for the latest dig up of NZ infrastructure that tends to get worse not better with more money wasted on it. Meanwhile rail hasn’t happened yet, but construction of their spanking new Puhinui transport hub awaits (without the emission less transport of rail).

    It is scary because behind the scenes ACT want to turn NZ into Trumpland with zero environmental or social controls and Labeen seem determined to push through their woke policy and be punished at the polls because what else can anybody do!

    Sadly the new dirty politics has the woke in charge of government budgets and policy!

  2. “There is no way for National or ACT to win that female vote back.”

    This line could be the making of your Waterloo moment?

    The racists in the Labour voter block will do a runner when the time comes when Cindy has another kumbayah moment and tries to sell them another load of shite about how ‘we’ the team of 5 million must embrace the impoverished, the poor and homeless with a wealth tax in the labour party next government post-2023!

    That’s worth about 2-3 per cent.

  3. Labour have lost my support over hate speech law, gender self id and conversion therapy ban(not that I support conversion therapy, but it is barely practiced in nz, it means counsellors could be threatened with legal action if there approach is misinterpreted), they are not banning puberty blockers as countries overseas are beginning to do (the likes of the UK, Finland)

    Labour have been completely captured by gender ideology. Including Sport Minister Robertson who thinks it’s ok to have male bodied people playing against women….not to mention unisex change rooms at community sport level

  4. “It’s no surprise that Simon Bridges is releasing a book on masculinity next month.”
    It’s no surprise that one often chases that which one can neither be nor have.
    The right/ left chaotic bumble-fuck that’s our trickle-up neoliberal political logical fallacy is still fooling the linear thinkers, of which the spherical thinkers must remain in grim awe of for their intellectual decrepitude.
    There are people out there who still doggedly believe that there’s a political difference between labour and national. There isn’t. Capitalist neoliberalism has our entire politic by the throat with one hand while the other’s in our pockets.
    Our farmers, for example, are a unique blend of devoutly hard working people who’re also entirely mesmerised by the colour of the enemy, the colour Blue. So much so, that I have to wonder of their dedication to their chosen calling and their politic isn’t driven by some parasitic entity like toxoplasmosis, a parasitic organism that literally makes mice crave cat piss. You can imagine the outcome of that? (Ed Yong explains. )
    So? national own farmers and wallow in their money and hate the general population. Labour pretend to be the people’s party but secretly love swimming about in cheap and easy farmer money too.
    And while all that’s going on, the $-co-joined criminal twins that is labour and national are selling us to multi billionaire americans who are here and now and undoubtedly manipulating our media and our politics.
    I read an article in the Guardian. ” Is it better to be happily ignorant of miserably well informed? ”
    From what I’ve learned from the past few weeks is that many of us are entirely ignorant of events taking place here as I write. We’re going to lose the sovereignty of our beautiful AO/NZ. That’s what’s happening.
    Our agriculture is going to become an Amazon warehouse of a thing, ( It’s almost there! ) our public lands including Maori Lands will become heavily guarded private property and our working class will be living in subservient poverty while being harvested by the hyper rich as the rest of the planet between the 45’s burns down.

  5. John Key won three terms because he mostly had an easy media to deal with. It was all the talk for quite some time that this man had plenty of allies in the mainstream media, and those who weren’t allies were frightened away from tackling any potential heavy duty stories because of John Key’s affiliation to the world of high finance. That was essentially his appeal as well as the fact that he did not display the arrogant intellectual attitude so proudly flaunted by his opponents on the left. Helen Clark had relied on her particular brand of arrogant intellectualism for three terms, so much so that she was revered in most universities around the country. But by 2008, it was tired, and the nation needed a change. She started receiving decent doses of bad press in the middle of her second term, 2004, while John Key didn’t start getting much in the way of negative press until the beginning of his third term, 2015. That was the year that his free market economics theory went belly up in this country. New Zealand lost a total of 870 jobs in one week in March alone. I think the total number of job losses in this country that year was around 2,250.

    In terms of the 2023 election, it is still another two years and a bit away. A lot can happen in that time. National could very well have a change of leadership in the interim, replacing Judith Collins with, oh I don’t know, a heterosexual white male. This does seem to be their default setting, doesn’t it? What would happen, I wonder, if they veered in the opposite direction, appointing an ethnic minority to the top job and clamped down on the rich in their policies? It needn’t be unfair. Inheritance taxation, capital gains tax, for example, have long been tax revenue collectors in most other Western countries, and I do feel that the majority of traditional National voters do now see the necessity of introducing one or the other of these tax measures at least, especially if the age of superannuation is to be kept at sixty five for the foreseeable future.

    Minor parties and opposition parties usually climb in the polls this far out from a general election. It doesn’t mean much. They have flash ideas and gain popularity but inevitably are swallowed up by their much larger competitors, National and Labour, the two political parties which dominate government in this country.

  6. National remain a train wreck where the primary focus of the paranoid tyrant of a leader is eliminating any threat, real or imagined, to her grasp on the leadership, a never ending blood lust that she revels in. As long as Judith remains, National are lost.

    Fuck knows how the Green Party manage 10% given the are the wokest social issue group there, far more a rainbow party than anything reassembling Green.

    Labour in descent is no surprise. The Hate speech laws showed us all clearly why they can’t achieve any objectives . The PM badly wants some kind of limitations on hateful communications but does not know what the detail or even the outline should look like. Nor does her incompetent Justice Minister. Neither can be bothered with silly things like details. Like Jacinda’s Labour always do, someone utters the “vibe” of what they want (policies on housing, mental health, light rail, fuel reforms, climate change, etc), and then totally leave it to some unsuspecting officials to interpret what the hell they want and then somehow make that interpretation, correct or otherwise, happen. And then nothing results. Who would have thought?

    Failure to deliver = incompetence = loss of confidence = vote loss

    • I don’t think there are mainy National supporters who think that Judith will lead them to the next election. They realise that she is unelectable to a large section of female voters. That is not going to change.
      The question is whether they have an electable alternative. Luxon will lock in the existing vote and maybe gain some of the male voters from the left but I doubt he can pull many of the female voters from the left.

      Reti is an interesting option for National. He may lose some of the National voters to Act but could gain some of the female vote from the left. He seems quite a measured chap who may appeal to center voters.
      When you think about it there is a dearth of prospective leaders on all sides of the political divide.

  7. Labour are all bad for housing/homelessness, mental health, child poverty, and most of the things that represent working class values. Instead they are focused on identity issues, and hate speech laws to enforce them. There is a definte trend towards totalitarianism in their policies.

    On the other side of the spectrum ACT are talking about freedom, personal responsibility, and letting people live their lives without excessive constant harrassment.

    I don’t think it is a left/right issue anymore. Do you want a police-state enforced lifestyle where everyone is scared to speak their true feelings in case they upset a member of the 35th gender? Or do you want to live a life where you can have at least some measure of freedom? Or put it in historical terms, would you rather live in 1960 East Berlin with the stasi chasing up dissenters and state-control with everyone on the breadline, or in 1960 West Berlin with a thriving democracy?

    There are very few working class people I know who are represented by the thought patterns of Labours identity policing. I would be surprised if ACT do not get a much larger percentage of the vote than this 13% Roy Morgan poll, because we working people are getting seriously pissed off with Labour trying to dictate how we should think while wrecking our standard of life in every aspect that actually matters. I want my kids to be able to succeed in the old style working class way, get a job, work hard, buy a house, life a good life. This is far more likley to occur under ACT policies than Labour policies. Unless of course my kids decide to join the league of petty-minded clipboard-ticking woke bureaucrats who are the only part of society flourishing under Labour.

  8. Labours 39.5% are home owners. Renters have no one to vote for. Right wing Labour or right wing National.

  9. ‘Right up, Left down’

    It’s hard to fathom that headline when there is no ‘left’ and all political parties are neo-fascist, i.e. promoting the the short-term interests of banks and corporations.

  10. Martyn
    Don’t panic. Relax. It’s just a trend. By the time the election comes, the right will have more votes than this. So you can look forward to saying goodbye to your useless Labour. Also, bet you a box of beer that the Greens will not win AKL again. There is just too much going wrong or not happening at all with this govt.

  11. Pretty simple for the government to avoid wage blow outs, by having staff who know what they are doing, are qualified and experienced and pay them proper incomes.

    Instead NZ has gone down the large numbers of low wage, low skill economy workers, with legions of workers in the public and private purse who are under qualified or have significant problems, little understanding of NZ, more woke than practical and a woke committee led by big business, type approach to decision making, from Meth standards to housing to Oranga Tamariki.

    The 1000 monkey’s are not known for writing Shakespeare. Our woeful NZ productivity and growing crime and gang culture (when you give drug smugglers and gang members like Sroubek residency while in Jail) is testament that this approach is not working.

    NZ needs to spend their health and welfare dollars wiser for people who are real NZ citizens, not sell everything off, encouraging many to eke out a peasant or crime filled living. NZ’s decade long policy to encourage every man and his dog to live in NZ earning (on paper*) little to nothing while able to access NZ welfare, pension and health and schooling system for free. No other country in the world seems to do this and now our country is full of exploiters and extreme individualists from Peter Thiel extreme libertarian/Trump supporter to Covid and anti vax deniers.

  12. The road has now become clearer for the right. The Brown Teddy Bear’s comments regarding criminalising parents from stopping 12yr olds from taking hormone blockers will put the clappers up white, middle class housewives.

    When the wokeborg starts threatening suburbia directly you just know there will be consequences. They can’t help themselves – the rot has set in. Woke is a far more tricky virus the covid ever will be.

    • Only for boomers Frank and they/we will be outvoted 2023. Nobody else gives a flying fuck about this overhyped non event. National down, Labour up.

      • Please keep thinking those under 50 will vote left ‘because’ and then keep feeding the wokeborg. It worked a treat in the UK, likely to work a treat in US midterms and ultimately work well enough in (little) Aotearoa. Remember you start shitting on and scaring suburban housewives and you lose.

        Please, please keep it up.

  13. Or it could just be National voters repelled by Judith and her constant grizzling, carping, gurning and empty policy cupboard looking around for someone else to vote for. ACT have dragged it’s right wing libertarian arse to the left (they certainly haven’t become more right wing) to capture National voters normally scared off by the previously wild eyed small government approach, probably as they were frightened of being on the wrong side of the fence if ACT’s sado masochistic policies ever came to fruition. For a party that espouses freedom, they sure like the idea of the state punishing the non believers. Considering the efforts of Jason, Hosk and wife, HDPA and husband, The taxpayers Union, Tova and crew, Farrer, Garner and Richardson etc etc plus the indescribable amount of crocodile tears shed by the right for the plight of the poor, to the constant negativity on everything being churned out by most media in the guise of ‘fair and balanced’ reporting, I’m not really surprised with this poll. Not said is what will the Maori Party do if they end up holding the balance of power if, indeed it comes to that. Go with National? Ho Ho. 2 years is still a way to go so I expect the usual too left vs not left enough, Men vs Women, Maori vs Pakeha, Woke vs anti Woke, Hate speech vs free speech, utes vs ev’s, rich vs poor, combined with the constant mantra of ‘are we there yet?’ as just business as usual. I’m now being told that vaccination rates will decide the next govt, no wait, now I’m being told that the post covid plan will decide the next govt, no wait, now it’s what the woke do, no wait now it’s whether NZ is called Aotearoa, no wait….on and fucking on. I’m off to do something productive as the sun is out, i’m not in lockdown, my jabs are booked, business is busy as fuck and that bloody retaining wall on the south side of the house doesn’t get built by itself.

  14. The last election was rampant with tactical voting due to the muppets who are the Green and Winstons game playing, to name only 2 sets of the dickheads, plus the well known ‘security’ effect of voting for the incumbent that happens after big upheavals, so not a good one to base much on I’d think.

    But also in amongst all of that was a LOT of rural types who voted for Beloved leader to make sure the Greens held no power. There was large tactical voting out there beyond the suburbs.

    And then along comes the ute tax, SNAs, constant vilification for stuff most have never done, total ignorance of all the good shit they have done and a lot more that’s been dumped on them.

  15. The problem is that the Woke actually don’t care about politics and can not be classed as Left or Right. They only care about the correctness of their view and the imposition of this view on everyone and the suppression of all other views.

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