Latest Roy Morgan Poll has Labour and Greens drop with National and ACT up.
This poll captures the full impact of the Hate Speech fiasco and lo and fucking behold up are now up to 13% while Greens sunk to 10%
Labour – 39.5%
Greens – 10%
National – 29%
ACT – 13%
The Maori Party are on an impressive 2.5%, NZ First at 2% and TOP at 3%.
The rise of ACT – as predicted by TDB – is being driven by them now being seen as the Right Wing Values Party. 2020 wasn’t a fluke, they are now a significant political player because woke culture war backlashes have propelled them forward.
Could the Woke please stop handing ACT ammunition?
The interesting breakdown on gender by Roy Morgan gives some insight into how the 2023 election strategies might play out.
I’ve argued for some time that Key’s successes at winning 3 terms was driven by his appeal to 30year old Labour voting women, they stuck with National in 2017 but moved by Jacinda’s Covid leadership caused a seismic shift towards Labour.
So Labour plus the Greens dominate in the female vote where as ACT and National dominate in the make vote.
There is no way for National or ACT to win that female vote back, indeed the hard right element of both parties means they are likely to scare more away, but what it does allow for is National and ACT to raid the left for their male voters, especially those alienated by the woke culture war stuff.
It’s no surprise that Simon Bridges is releasing a book on masculinity next month.
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If Labeen want to win they need to give up on their woke ideas, stop trying to criminalise peoples fundamental right to free speech, religious and other views and keep the existing laws which criminalise violence only! Otherwise we are in Kafka and PRC territory!
Also Labeens dream to make all the tenants homeless or in emergency housing with more gold impractical woke standards to rental housing to demolish what little original housing we still have in favour of high rise leaky slums run Grenfell style with woke and big business council committees overseeing everything. On social media they are even “woking” the motor home industry with some new rule that people seem up in arms about! You won’t even be able to live in your motor home soon!
NZ didn’t get rail because the roads were deemed so ‘unsafe’ we all have to travel at 30km and they needed constant dig ups for safety. Little wonder why we now need to destroy our streams and rivers with often 75% of landfill coming from the construction industry. Wow those huge carbon emissions from concrete, or airline emissions don’t seem to be worried about as much as ensuring everyone has to grind to a halt for the latest dig up of NZ infrastructure that tends to get worse not better with more money wasted on it. Meanwhile rail hasn’t happened yet, but construction of their spanking new Puhinui transport hub awaits (without the emission less transport of rail).
It is scary because behind the scenes ACT want to turn NZ into Trumpland with zero environmental or social controls and Labeen seem determined to push through their woke policy and be punished at the polls because what else can anybody do!
Sadly the new dirty politics has the woke in charge of government budgets and policy!
Proof reading needed!
Labour have lost my support over hate speech law, gender self id and conversion therapy ban(not that I support conversion therapy, but it is barely practiced in nz, it means counsellors could be threatened with legal action if there approach is misinterpreted), they are not banning puberty blockers as countries overseas are beginning to do (the likes of the UK, Finland)
Labour have been completely captured by gender ideology. Including Sport Minister Robertson who thinks it’s ok to have male bodied people playing against women….not to mention unisex change rooms at community sport level
John Key won three terms because he mostly had an easy media to deal with. It was all the talk for quite some time that this man had plenty of allies in the mainstream media, and those who weren’t allies were frightened away from tackling any potential heavy duty stories because of John Key’s affiliation to the world of high finance. That was essentially his appeal as well as the fact that he did not display the arrogant intellectual attitude so proudly flaunted by his opponents on the left. Helen Clark had relied on her particular brand of arrogant intellectualism for three terms, so much so that she was revered in most universities around the country. But by 2008, it was tired, and the nation needed a change. She started receiving decent doses of bad press in the middle of her second term, 2004, while John Key didn’t start getting much in the way of negative press until the beginning of his third term, 2015. That was the year that his free market economics theory went belly up in this country. New Zealand lost a total of 870 jobs in one week in March alone. I think the total number of job losses in this country that year was around 2,250.
In terms of the 2023 election, it is still another two years and a bit away. A lot can happen in that time. National could very well have a change of leadership in the interim, replacing Judith Collins with, oh I don’t know, a heterosexual white male. This does seem to be their default setting, doesn’t it? What would happen, I wonder, if they veered in the opposite direction, appointing an ethnic minority to the top job and clamped down on the rich in their policies? It needn’t be unfair. Inheritance taxation, capital gains tax, for example, have long been tax revenue collectors in most other Western countries, and I do feel that the majority of traditional National voters do now see the necessity of introducing one or the other of these tax measures at least, especially if the age of superannuation is to be kept at sixty five for the foreseeable future.
Minor parties and opposition parties usually climb in the polls this far out from a general election. It doesn’t mean much. They have flash ideas and gain popularity but inevitably are swallowed up by their much larger competitors, National and Labour, the two political parties which dominate government in this country.
National remain a train wreck where the primary focus of the paranoid tyrant of a leader is eliminating any threat, real or imagined, to her grasp on the leadership, a never ending blood lust that she revels in. As long as Judith remains, National are lost.
Fuck knows how the Green Party manage 10% given the are the wokest social issue group there, far more a rainbow party than anything reassembling Green.
Labour in descent is no surprise. The Hate speech laws showed us all clearly why they can’t achieve any objectives . The PM badly wants some kind of limitations on hateful communications but does not know what the detail or even the outline should look like. Nor does her incompetent Justice Minister. Neither can be bothered with silly things like details. Like Jacinda’s Labour always do, someone utters the “vibe” of what they want (policies on housing, mental health, light rail, fuel reforms, climate change, etc), and then totally leave it to some unsuspecting officials to interpret what the hell they want and then somehow make that interpretation, correct or otherwise, happen. And then nothing results. Who would have thought?
Failure to deliver = incompetence = loss of confidence = vote loss
I don’t think there are mainy National supporters who think that Judith will lead them to the next election. They realise that she is unelectable to a large section of female voters. That is not going to change.
The question is whether they have an electable alternative. Luxon will lock in the existing vote and maybe gain some of the male voters from the left but I doubt he can pull many of the female voters from the left.
Reti is an interesting option for National. He may lose some of the National voters to Act but could gain some of the female vote from the left. He seems quite a measured chap who may appeal to center voters.
When you think about it there is a dearth of prospective leaders on all sides of the political divide.
Labours 39.5% are home owners. Renters have no one to vote for. Right wing Labour or right wing National.
‘Right up, Left down’
It’s hard to fathom that headline when there is no ‘left’ and all political parties are neo-fascist, i.e. promoting the the short-term interests of banks and corporations.
Agreed we have no remotely real left wing party in NZ
Pretty simple for the government to avoid wage blow outs, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-ballooning-public-sector-wage-bill-risks-government-debt-targets-officials-warn/LBRHFRBTVYC4X26OMPITB5T2SY/ by having staff who know what they are doing, are qualified and experienced and pay them proper incomes.
Instead NZ has gone down the large numbers of low wage, low skill economy workers, with legions of workers in the public and private purse who are under qualified or have significant problems, little understanding of NZ, more woke than practical and a woke committee led by big business, type approach to decision making, from Meth standards to housing to Oranga Tamariki.
The 1000 monkey’s are not known for writing Shakespeare. Our woeful NZ productivity and growing crime and gang culture (when you give drug smugglers and gang members like Sroubek residency while in Jail) is testament that this approach is not working.
NZ needs to spend their health and welfare dollars wiser for people who are real NZ citizens, not sell everything off, encouraging many to eke out a peasant or crime filled living. NZ’s decade long policy to encourage every man and his dog to live in NZ earning (on paper*) little to nothing while able to access NZ welfare, pension and health and schooling system for free. No other country in the world seems to do this and now our country is full of exploiters and extreme individualists from Peter Thiel extreme libertarian/Trump supporter to Covid and anti vax deniers.
The road has now become clearer for the right. The Brown Teddy Bear’s comments regarding criminalising parents from stopping 12yr olds from taking hormone blockers will put the clappers up white, middle class housewives.
When the wokeborg starts threatening suburbia directly you just know there will be consequences. They can’t help themselves – the rot has set in. Woke is a far more tricky virus the covid ever will be.
Only for boomers Frank and they/we will be outvoted 2023. Nobody else gives a flying fuck about this overhyped non event. National down, Labour up.
Please keep thinking those under 50 will vote left ‘because’ and then keep feeding the wokeborg. It worked a treat in the UK, likely to work a treat in US midterms and ultimately work well enough in (little) Aotearoa. Remember you start shitting on and scaring suburban housewives and you lose.
Please, please keep it up.
National and Labour are just like Pepsi and Coke, one is Blue and the other is Red.
The problem is that the Woke actually don’t care about politics and can not be classed as Left or Right. They only care about the correctness of their view and the imposition of this view on everyone and the suppression of all other views.
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