WITH LABOUR polling in the mid-to-high 40s, and the Greens around 10 percent, the Left dominates New Zealand politics. At least, that is what it would like us to believe. In fact, the Left’s current dominance of New Zealand politics is both highly unusual and extremely fragile. The party’s commanding lead in the polls is due almost entirely to the approximately 15 percent of the electorate (roughly 440,000 people) who rewarded “Jacinda” with a vote that, in the absence of the global pandemic, would have gone to somebody else. Yet to be given a good reason for abandoning their heroine, these voters remain in Labour’s camp. Truth to tell, it is this 10-15 percent of the electorate that is dominating New Zealand politics – not the Left.
Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, Labour has averaged approximately 36 percent of the popular vote. Putting the 2020 election to one side, the best results achieved were under Helen Clark in 2002 and 2005. Even then, however, the party only just made it into the 40s. Jacinda, herself, only managed to claim 36.89 percent of the Party Vote for Labour in 2017 – well short of the National Party’s 44.45 percent. That she became Prime Minister at all was due entirely to her poaching NZ First’s 7.20 percent of the Party Vote. (Winston’s tally was generally expected to be made available to National.) Jacinda repeated this trick (albeit with twice the percentage of conservative votes) in the Covid Election of 2020.
At 37 percent, National’s average vote in the MMP Era confirms the centrality of that fickle 10-15 percent of the electorate which slips and slides all over the middle regions of the political spectrum. Until 2020, however, these voters’ preferences tended to be more right-wing than left-wing. National certainly thought so – hence its fury at seeing Winston Peters crown Jacinda with votes it was convinced had been cast by people favouring a right-wing coalition government. In this conviction, they were probably quite correct.
All of which adds up to a very peculiar political situation. In the past two elections, the parties of the Left – whose combined support between 1996 and 2020 averaged just 43.65 percent of the Party Vote – have been able to form a government. Not because the country had just swung decisively to the Left, but because hundreds-of-thousands of moderately conservative New Zealanders had acquiesced in the right-wing parties they usually voted for being excluded from power. Justifiably in 2020, given Jacinda Ardern’s superb handling of the Covid-19 crisis, and National’s extraordinary political implosion. Judiciously in 2017, given National’s nine year legacy of procrastination and neglect. In both instances, the mandates handed to Labour were strictly limited.
All of which makes the behaviour of the present Labour Government and its Green Party allies extremely difficult to fathom. Rather than accept the utterly exceptional nature of the 2020 General Election, and acknowledge the strictly limited character of the electoral mandate it conferred, the Left appears to have convinced itself that the 440,000 New Zealanders whose support for Labour was simply their way of saying: “Thank you, Jacinda, for keeping me and my family safe”, were actually begging Labour and the Greens to turn their world upside down.
Labour’s and the Greens’ sharp swing to the left, in cultural terms, may be acceptable to New Zealanders in the professions, the public service, the universities and the communications industries. After all, these are the highly-educated elites who, in practically all the advanced economies of the West, are the most comfortable, temperamentally, with the politics of race and personal identity. It is not acceptable, however, to the culturally conservative 7-15 percent of the electorate which “switched sides” in 2017 and 2020. They are becoming increasingly alarmed and confused by the Labour Government’s unheralded direction of travel. Not so alarmed that they are willing to overlook the National Party’s all-too-evident disarray, and re-pledge their traditional allegiance to the Centre-Right. Not yet – but they’re close.
Not that you can tell Labour’s apparatchiks any of this. Their ears are blocked to any suggestion that the Government has advanced dangerously far ahead of public opinion. Nor can they be convinced that they have made themselves vulnerable to the sort of brutal, right-wing political attacks that Labour’s and the Greens’ radical policies on race, gender, culture and climate change are bound to attract. If there was still a functioning Fourth Estate, it’s just possible that these warnings might eventually penetrate the static of the Left’s confirmation biases. Unfortunately, the same ideological virus that has melted the brains of Labour and the Greens, has also melted the brains of the nation’s mainstream journalists.
What Labour would like us to believe is that they are skating on a solid sheet of ideological ice, more that capable of carrying the weight of their cultural revolution. In reality, the ice now bearing their electoral weight is wafer thin. Sadly, Labour’s leaders remain utterly oblivious to the currents surging just below their party’s fragile crust of support. They have no idea how very strong they are, nor how deathly cold.
I think Labours biggest issue is their failure to deliver on their policy promises, and with that goes their reputation for competence.
Mental health is just the latest but by far the worst because people’s lives are at risk, constantly, by the shambles New Zealand’s mental health is.
They knew it, campaigned on it, allocated the funding to improve it, made the big announcement they cared and then ceased taking the blindest bit of interest ever since, only for bumbling ministers to be found out by an opposition who is far more obsessed with tearing itself to pieces and hardly on its game.
It seems to me this particular failure is now one too many. You now kinda expect a promise to do something to never actually eventuate.
This Labour governments strategy is to get things off the front pages rather than bothering to get things done.
If Covid fades, Labour have little to take to the electorate come 2023.
“If Covid fades, Labour have little to take to the electorate come 2023.”
Fortunately the alternative is only ACT, I say fortunately because they wouldn’t poll high enough to be effective. National are a basket case. They stand for nothing, have no principles as shown by Collins latest response to Muller leaving…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-mp-todd-mullers-resignation-followed-admission-at-late-night-caucus-meeting/7ULROKAZGUF7LNLLPV3NEMOZRE/
Open communication is not Collins forte. Keep everyone muzzled is her mantra and so much for free speech. Add in ministers with seriously devious sexual history and well who seriously believes Collins and National are the answer given they achieved nothing for 99% of ordinary New Zealanders in their 9 long painful years in power.
Don’t think for a moment that any of National’s promises would ever be fulfilled. just a small reminder…
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1111/S00331/nationals-growing-list-of-broken-promises.htm
Remind me how mental health became broken in the first place and why “there is no housing crisis”?
Bert, I am a hoping and a praying they get their shit together and drive these bureaucracies but mate, they’re really trying my patience!
Yes, I concur mate.
Labour and the Greens’ sharp swing to the left? You must be joking. Please explain.
Yes Rosie, I’m not sure that “a swing to the left” is entirely accurate but they have undoubtedly introduced “progressive” initiatives that are certain to alienate a lot of former and would be voters.
For the large socially conservative part of our society, including immigrant communities, they have seriously overstepped what they consider reasonable boundaries. Their overt acquiescence to any outrageous demand from Maori is certainly causing resentment and not just from the usual suspects.
Their allegiance to the discredited and dangerous critical race theory and a heavily biased view of our history is unforgiveable. How do you think people will react when little Johnny comes home from school bent out of shape, suffering, from being told that all the faults of the world are somehow his fault by dint of his ethnicity or gender.
That aside much will depend on a healthy and growing economy and issues like housing affordability as always. They’ve just over two years left to do a hell of a lot better than the past three and a half in that regard.
All history is heavily biased David. I guess that is why there was such a heavy emphasis on dates when I went to school – 1066 and all that. The dates can be generally accepted, but all else is contentious, and the accepted truth varies as the World changes. I was told some ridiculous rubbish when I was young, as were we all, but all that it did was make me somewhat skeptical. What makes you think that little Johnny will be worse affected than previous generations?
The framing of history as an extension of the victim/oppressor narrative along ethnic lines will be divisive. It can’t help but be associated with, and attached to, the pupils in that way. From what I have seen of the new history curriculum it’s difficult not to conclude that that is the intention. Selective, distorted and manipulative.
Michael Bassett, historian and ex Labour MP reviews it:
https://www.bassettbrashandhide.com/post/labour-s-history-curriculum
Reports here in The South Island that farmers in some areas are requiring iwi consent to graze winter crops on their own land.
At the moment the mood is puzzlement -the same iwi did dairy conversions on thousands of hectares of marginal Cantetbury land but such unmandated “co governance” of people’s lives will rapidly turn to anger.
Outside of the cities, thin ice indeed the real question is the soft city vote and what issue will affect them.
The mess this country is in, is primarily due to past National Govt’s neglect. Most people can see that now many years after the fact. Only the old die hard Nat’s supporters can’t see that or just fail to understand. Blue blood to the end. And the end is coming. The conservative boomers that have held sway over NZ are fading away and will be much less of a force than the new generations who don’t give a rats arse about “Aotearoa” and Te Reo being used when and wherever they want. A generational shift is happening, slowly as is the way and with it new attitudes that align far more with the Labour/Greens/Maori bloc than Nats/Act. Yes Labour have many warts but I think many of the younger generations can see and feel change happening that’s long overdue and accept it will take decades to deliver. Oh, and they love Jacinda for the kind persona she is spreading across our long green cloud. The Natz will just stick everything into reverse and pander to the boomers. Not gonna happen.
There is politics and there is religion.
Gender/race/identity mantra is nonsensical, non scientific and is modern religion with believers and non believers.
Hence the dichotomy in the “left”running neoliberal economic policies but embracing woke religion.
There is no true left as such.
People voted in a government to govern, not become our moral clergy preaching against our skin color or what car has a “legitimate” use.
Certainly the ministry of truth and media do their best at brainwashing for the cult, but people will wake up when they are negatively effected themselves.
Nobody is preaching against your skin colour Keepcalmcarryon. Indeed it would in breach of our laws to do so.
I hope that you are right Greenbus. The government has many failures, but it is the best that we can expect, and it does offer us the prospect of a better future.
Woke mantra is the new religion, this government are our self appointed clergy.
How many true believers are there is the real question.
Watch the video clip these guys share to see real religious/cult behavior from the same sect in America:
https://youtu.be/dIMhMrkYkyw
I agree with you Bert with the alternative being a cot case we also need to be careful as many other countries like Israel and Samoan have such small majorities. And when you have fragmented support or a divided nation it becomes extremely difficult almost bordering on near impossible to rule and please the majority. We also need to bear in mind this is a newly elected unimpeded Labour parties first term. Too many people expect the transformational changes we desperately need to happen immediately and in my view this is unrealistic. Jacinda might have fairy dust (according to some) but she doesn’t have a magic wand yet. And to make matters worse to build the workforce we need will take some time as we are competing for the same pool of peoples with Canada and Australia who are seen as more favorable. We also need to remember the National party had nine years to delivery our brighter future and prevent us from becoming tenants in our country. All I can say is people need to be more patient. Yes we will need to let more people in our country unfortunately but we need to ensure we bring in the best people for our country. And we need to invest heavily in NZers so our reliance on foreign labour and skills can be minimized. In the meantime I can see the farmers have their hands out again. I find some of our farmers and note I say some, to be extremely selfish and always looking to blame. They (these farmers) need to realise it is not all about just them. Those of us living in Wellington had out insurance premiums rise by heaps due to the earthquake risks and we had no choice but to lump it or get out.
Hey teKraut you forgot to add the paperboy and sausage sizzles as quintessentail kiwi icons (Johns’ policies)
If you can’t bring in a apical gains on 50% support you’re no good to anyone. If you can’t smuggle it in on 50% you’re differently not doing it o 75 one hundred or a million percent support. Just not skilled enough boy.
Why would anyone give a fuck what LINO’s lead is when the planet is being melted, whichever bunch of criminals is in power at any given time?
‘IPCC steps up warning on climate tipping points in leaked draft report
Scientists increasingly concerned about thresholds beyond which recovery may become impossible’
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/23/climate-change-dangerous-thresholds-un-report
The NZ political machine is rotten to the core and worse than useless.
Great commentary Chris. Thanks.
XRay is correct (above) in saying that the present government could be forgiven a lot if they could actually deliver on any of their promises. The one thing they have going for them at the moment is their virus response, but if the Wellington infection turns out to be a super-spreader event, then I think they’re screwed.
I think the Labour faithful are also being lulled into a false sense of security by the polls, particularly the ‘preferred prime minister’ result. If I recall Helen Clark was getting a dismal 6% in that poll just before she became PM. Between elections most people (all except the political tragics, like us) don’t pay attention to politics and their they will mostly say they favour whoever is in office at the time. It’s meaningless. The PM gets most of the air time and the opposition is (or should be) busy developing policies and election strategies so are naturally less visible. If they have policy ideas they will only release them closer to election time.
I am struck by the contrast with Boris Johnston following the UK 2019 election. In it, the Red Wall crumbled and a large number of Labour UK voters choose Conservative for the first time in their, or their parents, or grandparents lives. The Tories were at great pains to message that “I know how agonizing it was for some of the voters”, we consider that you have just lent us your vote at this stage”, “we hope to be worthy of earning it”. Labour NZ’s attitude on the other hand……………………
If the nurses’ just demands are not met, if the housing crisis is unresolved, if the cost of the government’s bike bridge blows out past $1 billion, this administration will be finished, to be replaced with something much worse.
So how about it Labour?
Concede to the nurses’ demands.
Bring in an empty homes tax, freeing up tens of thousands of empty houses for rent or sale.
Instead of building a bike bridge use that money to beef up public transport across the Waitemata so that people don’t have to use their cars and then give the cyclists one lane of the Harbour Bridge
I just hope Jacinda and her acolytes and sycophants keep doing what they are doing because it will ensure their downfall in 2023.
Not when the horrid National/ACT parties ate the alternative Catherine.
I’m actually surprised the Greens & TOP haven’t plugged-in to the current of frustration with the housing market (rentals and buying a home).
I voted for TOP last election – partly because I knew I could ‘afford to’, given Labour was pretty near a sure thing to win re-election.. and partly because I figured a bunch of well meaning technocrats maybe ain’t so bad, given all the other choices on the ballot paper….
Kia ora Chris
We live in a time of evolving nationalist sentiment in Aotearoa, as evidenced by increasing use of te reo Maori in public discourse, the teaching of New Zealand history and Maori culture in state schools, and proposals for legislative and constitutional change.
You see nationalism as an electoral phenomenon or, not to put too fine a point on it, an electoral problem, and the key question for you is “Will the Labour Party be able to bring or hold together a majority of voters by getting on board with this broad ranging movement?”
You do not have a lot of evidence to support your opinion that it will not, which leads me to wonder whether you are bringing in electoral consequences as a pragmatic argument against a cause which you abhor in principle.
The second question you raise is whether this is a popular movement or whether it is an elitist cause largely driven by elements within the state, as was the case with the Labour Party’s last adventure in radical reform, the economic restructuring of the nineteen eighties.
This is where your approach is simplistic. Like any popular movement, New Zealand nationalism as a broad phenomenon is complex and contradictory. Political elites and the state itself are not slow to take advantage of or to try to control the direction and outcomes of the movement. Examples would be John Key’s proposal to change the New Zealand flag, and the “He Puapua” and “He whenua taurikura” projects. The first failed because not because it was opposed by the Labour Party (which held to a steadfastly colonialist position on the matter of the flag) but because it was resented by radical nationalists (who have their own flags or have no need of one) and viewed with suspicion by more moderate nationalists (who wondered why John Key, a thorough going colonialist himself, would want to put through a change that would appear to favour the nationalist cause). “He Puapua” will fail for much the same reasons. It would be seen for an attempt by an elite group with strong colonialist connections to hijack the nationalist movement and take it in directions that no one else would want. It won’t get past Cabinet.
Meanwhile, a lot is happening at the popular level. Outside the echo chambers of blog sites like Bowalley Road, the vast mass of our people are comfortable with the teaching of New Zealand history and the use of te reo. Instead of reacting with fear to the exploration of history, they merely demand that the history as taught should consist of “the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth” and that all biases and preconceptions should be open to challenge. Instead of getting angry when someone on radio or television uses words that they do not understand (a mistake that no five year old child would be prone to) they endeavour to learn what they do not know.
The elites, and the state, are responding in their own devious ways to a genuinely popular movement. They come up with top down proposals which are either more show than substance, or which are fundamentally undemocratic and which will entrench the power of the colonialist elites. The real popular movement continues to proceed as it has been, slowly by trial and error and millions of simultaneous dialogues in the homes, workplaces and marae of the nation, and the outcomes will be overwhelmingly positive.
In all this your personal position remains obscure, but comments such as the one about Guyon Espiner’s “insufferable fluency” give the game away. You are not at all comfortable with nationalism as it is manifesting in Aotearoa. That is fine, but it is a position which you should openly acknowledge as your own, rather than hiding behind the mythical 15% of voters who will supposedly desert the NZLP if nationalist sentiment is given its head in this country.
Opposing CGT, more intensive housing and here cultural change – is there no established privilege the aging boomer will not defend: albeit couched as fear of the conservative withdrawing support for Labour.
Comments are closed.