When Jacinda won in 2017, she had to select a Cabinet from a very shallow talent pool, in 2020 she is selecting a Cabinet from the battle hardened and incredibly talented.
This is a Cabinet with surprises, concerning disappointments and genuine wins. These Ministers will oversee their Ministries at a time when Labour have an unprecedented MMP majority so there is no fog of Cabinet to hide policy failures.
WINNERS:
Sexual offending & Domestic abuse focus by Police – With Poto Williams taking over Police expect the focus to go off the chest beating Gangs hysteria stuff and move to a greater focus on domestic violence and sexual assault which impacts far more people than Gangs do. You will see a political pressure to start more prosecutions and investigation of these types of crimes rather than the glamor gang headlines. Expect a hardline against arming police and real scrutiny over their chase policy.
Māori Caucus – They now make up a quarter of the Cabinet and while the most powerful faction inside the Government, they also have the biggest task. Māoridom are furious with the State providing social services that are biased against them and the demand to be given the money themselves to run their own services is becoming deafening. If these Māori MPs can’t force transformative change despite the enormous power they now have, then no one can.
Michael Wood – Rising star who is being given more responsibility.
Kiri Allen – Superstar who has earned being given more responsibility.
Ayesha Verrall – Insanely talented newbie who will add enormous intellectual grunt to the war on Covid.
Diversity – Compare Robert Muldoon’s Caucus…
…all the diversity of a loaf of white bread. Of course when we say ‘Diversity’ in NZ we mean identity politics NZ on Air funding application ‘diversity’, note how NO ONE has pointed out that the real lack of diversity here is from poor people. Most of this influx all own property, the Landlord class, the propertied class and the well to do are represented, renters can go fuck themselves.
LOSERS:
Beneficiaries – With the Grim Lady Sepuloni not only remaining in Social Welfare but also gaining jobs, the future looks incredibly bleak for beneficiaries. It means the toxic culture inside WINZ remains, the punitive nature of the abuse towards beneficiaries remains and by gaining the jobs portfolio, she’ll be marching those beneficiaries and the disabled into the ‘work sets you free’ style neoliberal welfare culture that we’ve all come to know and despise. Terrible day for the poorest amongst us.
Public Broadcasting – When the answer is Kris Faafoi, the question was ‘Who won’t do anything meaningful’. The weeping wound of public broadcasting will continue unsolved and we will see no TVNZ-RNZ merger, we won’t see any move against Facebook and Google and we will only see the same elite opinions being paid to echo chamber each others elite opinions.
A benign Foreign affairs perspective – With all due respect to Peeni Henare and Nanaia Mahuta, we are about to enter an incredibly unstable geopolitical chess match in the Pacific between China and America and Foreign Affairs and the NZDF may require Ministers who are laser like in their communication delivery. The challenges these positions will face over the next 3 years would be difficult enough for experienced Ministers, Henare and Mahuta are not the first names that would jump out.
Justice Reform & Hate Speech – Just close your eyes and imagine the effuse Kris Faafoi trying to explain that we are re-setting the sexual assault courts so that they create more convictions, or why heresy and blasphemy against Religion are included as hate speech or why we will be prosecuting people for misusing pronouns because it’s hate speech – just imagine him trying to explain that on ZB or Magic Talk.
Yeah.
That’s not happening. Andrew Little has the intellect and mana to be able to front foot those types of questions, Kris will implode 90 seconds into the interview. Pursuing hate speech laws or sexual assault court reforms is off the table while Faafoi is Minister, because embarking upon them with him as Minister will be the first casualty of Jacinda’s Cabinet.
Phil Twyford – Has been moved somewhere with no sharp objects. Will be moved out of Cabinet at the first reshuffle.
Bauble 1 – Marama Davidson, provides Labour with political camouflage. No power but all the blame
Bauble 2 – James Shaw inoculates the meaninglessness of doing bugger all on the climate and Jacinda can point to him being the Climate Minister anytime anyone points out how little we are doing.
Kelvin Davis – No, I’m not going to give him grief, Kelvin is a lovely bloke but a terrible poet. I feel for him because he’s been given the toxic neoliberal experiment that is Oranga Tamariki, the cursed Ministry that will destroy all who touch it. If he can force a culture change there the way he did with Corrections, it could be the single greatest achievement of this Government.
CONCLUSION:
Now we have a majority Government, the factions inside Labour will do more to generate ideological friction than they ever have during MMP
The Province Princes – Labour bewilderingly won over 50% of the provinces and Nash and O’Conner have been given the responsibility to service that electorate. It’s a hell of a task and the sooner Kieran McAnulty can join them in this, the better.
The Brains Trust – This is where the real power is. Grant, David Parker, Andrew Little, Chippy and Megan Woods are the ones with the intellect to transform NZ.
The Māori Caucus – Have quarter of the Cabinet, if there is any push for reform in WINZ with a genuinely transformative agenda, it will have to come from here.
They have the talent, unfortunately the single minded focus on preventing Covid from destroying the country has meant this Government have no transformative vision so if none of the factions push for it, get ready for incremental nothingness which will be heralded by Wellington Union press releases as ‘another great first step’ style praise.
Why vote for Labour if all they do is implement policy to pacify National voters?
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A most appropriate appraisal of Phil Twyfords situation. Making the tea may better suit his talents and yet he still holds a number of lesser portfolios. I just do not know why the PM is so loyal to him.
Otherwise it will be hard to say what happens from here. Little, I suspect will be better in Health, Faafoi appears to do what the relevant ministry bureaucrats tell him to do and as for the rest, looks okayish.
I’ll give them a chance and see what progress is made in the next 18 months. And if you are reading Labour, even starting on a promise (like light rail) is better than nothing being delivered at all!
I’d argue strategically this lineup is to ensure:
a). No Kiwibuild type fiascos this term
b). No muppets at question time
This reeks of Helen Clark’s influence
The big fuck up is not having Parker as foreign minister which will become more pertinent if Trump gets up or France and/or Italy (as I suspect) lerch hard right over the next 3 years. On the surface it looks like Mahuta got the post as a quid pro quo for Davis’ demotion who got told he wasn’t up for the job.
Bomber is being harsh on Kris. Everyone loves Kris as he is a big, cuddly teddy bear for the electorate The real banana peel for him will be immigration (I think he has this). This has got ticking timebombs all over it.
Not many gaps for National to exploit with weak ministers. Foreign affairs is always difficult as there is convention that this is in everyone’s best interests. Best targets will be:
-Transport: With a new minister and glaring issues where a senior attack dog would be appropriate.
-Infrastructure: While this is Robbo removing red tape is an anathema to Labour and likely the cure will be worse than the problem. Law of unintended consequences to apply.
-Immigration: Jacinda (sorry Helen) and Robbo will want their pump and dump economy open asap so the charge up on the amex stops. Also Labour usually curry favours in this portfolio.
-Health – Watch for this to become a battleground as the medium term effects of covid on our health system become apparent. Little, while a competent and able minister comes up against a specialist with inside knowledge. There will be big scandals/structural issues in this portfolio over the next 3 years and 9 years of neglect is now a redundant argument.
The main portfolios and their respective ministers will be dependent on the wider health of the economy and as Bomber rightly points out the game for the next 3 years is to hang on to those 250,000 voters taken from National. Expect very little transformative
“Bomber is being harsh on Kris. Everyone loves Kris as he is a big, cuddly teddy bear for the electorate The real banana peel for him will be immigration (I think he has this). This has got ticking timebombs all over it.”
A journalist as the Minister for Justice??????????????? Just THINK about that?No Legal training experience or expertise? Immigration will be a pre- schoolers birthday party by comparison.Faafoi is incompetent. This indicates NO MORE REFORM OF THE JUSTICE SYSTEM. What an insult to the people . Did Jacinda think we wouldn’t notice this gutless move. Who is running the book on when this muppet will be thrown under the bus? I want to place my bet now! Mahuta will be superb in Her role Frank She deserves the accolade.You’re such an old school sexist jerk frank.
The same comment could be made having a trade unionist as a Health Minister or indeed a student politician as a Minister of Finance. Point is you don’t have to be a specialist in your position to be an effective minister.
I don’t think you on the left get it – THERE IS NO REFORM OF THE JUSTICE SYSTEM UNDER THE BLAIRITE!! Do you honestly think the 250,000 OK Karens, retirees and corporate office employees want a 2-tiered race-based legal system or indeed hate speech laws. Welcome to being 2nd class political citizens – my wife and my mother’s vote (no they didn’t but you get the gist) are more important than yours.
As for being an old school sexist – we’ll the last thing I am is woke or indeed left wing. I’m confident in my assessment of Labour’s pick for foreign minister. The only thing in her favour is USUALLY foreign affairs is bipartisan. Also watch for the heavy lifting in the portfolio being done by the Blairite. Better hope Trump doesn’t get up.
Hang on!!! We have a student politician and fish’n chips wrapper as PM now!
Sorry Shona, just shot yourself in the foot there.
Not many gaps??? National will tear the Minister of Disarmament to shreds!!!!!
Lol. Won’t have to as he’ll blow himself up
I will add Megan Woods was housing minister in the past 18 months. Housing worsened if prices are a representative of that. She simply must hit the ground running, there is NO time for a reformed RMA to come to the rescue. She needs to hit investors and take them out of the market.
There will be no second chances for her or Labour if they miss the target this time around.
They won’t and you know they won’t. With the great South Asian immigration ponzi scheme out of the picture into the medium term debt fueled consumer spending is the only way of keeping a semblance of an economy in the short term. The problem with NZ is we have limited and poor asset classes hence the focus on residential housing.
The other problem is it’s not the investor class stimulating asset price inflation at the moment. It’s mainly down to returning NZers from Europe, UK and the US. Our housing is still relatively cheap if you are spending Pounds, Dollars or Euros. Don’t think Robbo and Orr don’t know this either or in fact this is incidental. This is deliberate and political.
Ironically right from the Key/English/Joyce playbook.
Faafoi as Minister of Justice ?????
Clear indication that the much needed urgent reform of the Courts, Criminal Procedures Act , Misuse of drugs Act , archaic Evidence Act and blowtorching of the Crown Solicitor have been consigned to the ‘do Nothing perhaps they won’t notice ‘ box.
The outcome of the Dotcom fiasco and the revelations of the Crown’s machinations coming out of the Abuse in Care enquiry mean throw away Kris is in for a rough ride start off the starting line.
You are far, far too generous in your appraisal of Megan Woods , who is completely out of her depth in dealing with Energy , arguably the critical sector to be dealt with[ constructively] if transformation and sustainability are to have any meaning other than catchy slogans .
Housing as well ?? This will not end well .
You also seriously under-estimate the intelligence & capability of Nania Mahuta -she will be fine . Her BS detector will be a very useful tool in dealing with her ministry but she would be much better utilised in dealing with any of the critical internal ministries riddled with neo-lib toadies but we can’t have a confirmed lefty rocking those foundations.
I’ve posted previously on this Cabinet being the mark of Arden’s political stance and we have a clear perception now of what she stands for.
Neo-Liberal/Blairite/ Tory with a red dress.
So a good start. Some Ministers are condemned as being useless and not up to it while others say the same one are most worthy. And vice versa.
So it’s business as usual I guess.
Any Minister worth her or his salt will have their underlings compiling all the negative online predictions and assessment stuff like the stuff on here, tabulating it with the date and hanging it on their office wall behind a picture. Every now and then the picture should be removed and the summary statements considered.
The question they should ask themselves out loud: “This is what they said. Were they right?”
And let’s not forget minister for angry gym equipment Nash.
Retains his ranking somehow (?) but stripped of two important ministries, Police and Fisheries for being a useless something or other.
Bungled buy back and gun laws, no cameras on boats, increased commercial snapper quota yada yada.
An easily run stooge.
Isn’t there a Royal Commission due out shortly?
Good piece. At this time we are a world away from the nightmare visiting other so called leading Western nations.
We’re are not perfect but there is no place I’d rather be.
Sorry Martin, you seem to forget that the gangs are the primary source of methamphetamine distribution in NZ. Meth use is endemic in this country, contributing enormously to domestic violence, exacerbating mental illness, and frequently involved in criminal activity. Too much hysteria around gangs? Start talking to social workers, people who work in mental health, Oranga tamariki, and other social services. The negative social impact from methamphetamine use is huge, and gangs are the source of the importation, manufacture, sale and distribution.
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