40 Days until the NZ Election – where are we and what happens next?

1. If this hypothesis is correct then the most likely outcome is a Labour government with the Maori party supporting them on some legislation seems the most likely outcome.
   It would be of interest if we could see the current poll polling in all of the Maori seats as this could prove pivotal for the next three year parliamentary term.

   • That’s just what happens when mummy bloggers cancel conservative thought. The mummy bloggers then don’t know what’s happening outside of their twitter bubbles.

2. Also bear in mind that a week is a long time in politics and polls can get it wrong. Witness Brexit, Donald Trump, ScoMo and BoJo.

3. No one really knows but…

   Labour can at least be held up to say things did not get worse in most key areas, most that is! And this also means no nasty shit like worse employment laws and other targetted spite as was the way with National. But that is not exactly a resounding recommendation either.

   More money for teaching helped. More money for nursing too and health. Mental health funding well up but this will take a decade to be noticed. Better tenancy laws to some extent and heating subsidies. More police. More social housing being built and in the pipeline. All of this is good. But…

   Housing is an epic failure, aside from social (the intensity of which may end up ghettos). Runaway investors who are bordering on feral are not what Labour was supposed to deliver. They have not touched this area. They are so scared to go near it. Is this because there are multi-property owners in Labour? The very predictable result in a so-called healthy economy is that housing affordability worsens, private debt grows and the day of reckoning gets nearer.

   Climate change. All words, no substance. The results are becoming vivid.
   Broadcasting. Nothing but a Ministers career blown away.
   Child poverty. Come on Jacinda!

   Transport. I cannot recall any government totally failing in one area as much as this one has. Led by the former failed housing minister and present-day fool, Twyford, they have bombed on every policy promise, every single one. I think the closest we got was the promise of a meagre passenger rail service between Auckland and Hamilton and even then its stalled. It raises questions of credibility and ability to translate promises into action and then reality. And in respect of Twyford, the PM’s judgement. How did this idiot go up in the rankings? We cannot be free of this moron who will go on failing his government and the people. So many questions, chiefly, how does Phil Twyford justify his salary? Even justify being paid a minimum wage? Actually anything?

   Fair to say were it not for Covid19 there would be a reasonable chance of a Simon Bridges led National government waiting in the wings because Labour simply did not deliver their big promises. I realise the public service infrastructure was poor and there is a lot of years of neglect but I think Labour badly need to do some soul searching because we trusted them to deliver and by and large they didn’t. I mean in many areas they didn’t even start. Fuck up again with non-delivery and they may as well write the party off.

   As for the Greens. Auckland Central should stay, ironically, National, thanks to Labour/Green vote splitting, where I think Labour would win were it not for that. I think the Greens are history. And they have no one but them-woke-selves and their inept/bordering on sabotage prone co-leadership to blame. I cannot help if that happens, James Shaw will wryly grin and think, job done.

   NZ First. Goneburger. Winston has come across as disloyal and an arse. And there are now too many deals involving them and taxpayer money that stink. But in a way, Shane Jones exiting is no bad thing.

   TOP, less than 1%
   Maori Party, no. JT is a liability.
   ACT. That is scary, probably over 5% thanks to bleed off from National.

   National. A train wreck of a party that when it’s not shitting on everyone else with its dirty politics, it’s knifing each other with gay abandon. For now, the damage is papered over, just, however, its led by one of the most unpleasant and repulsive persons I have seen who oozes hatred and contempt from her very inner being. Very, very hard to like except if you are fully subscribed to being a self-serving prick who thrives on others misery, enjoys spite, envy, deviousness, Newstalk ZB and Sadomasochism, all rolled into one. I suspect they will benefit from the implosion of the Greens and NZ First.

   The others, who cares?

4. What happens next.

   1. The failure of corporations to generate profits and the surge in share prices [on the back of central bank printing money to facilitate share buy-backs] collide in an epic battle which initially results in the surge in share prices stalling, and then results in the biggest collapse in history, making 1929, 1987, 1997, 2001, and 2008 look like a walk in the park.

   2. The overheated planet -a consequence of mass burning of fossil fuels- causes unprecedented weather-related catastrophes around the world (like the searing heat in California and widespread flooding Sudan right now). The damage caused by these human-induced catastrophes results in complete failure of human systems in the regions affected.

   3. The debilitating effects of Covid-19 on workforces and extreme weather events result in declining food availability throughout the world, resulting in widespread hunger that causes breakdown of authority in numerous locations.

   4. Out-of-control ‘second wave’ (third wave?} Covid-19 demolishes large sectors of stumbling economies -particularly tourism, cafe-lifestyle, restaurant, cinema, concert, corporatised sport etc. This results in closure of business and hundreds of millions of additional unemployed worldwide.

   5. High unemployment rates and general impoverishment result in rents not being paid, tax revenues falling and budgets being blown to smithereens.

   6. Misled and bewildered people turn to saviour-figures who promise to restore life to how it was before everything began to unravel, even though those saviour-figures haven’t got a clue what to do and are simply opportunists gaming the opportunity.

   7. Whilst still in power, governments that kowtow to banks and corporations and provide opportunists of opportunists (in other words all of them) continue make everything that matters worse.

   8. Despite all their bizarre and dysfunctional systems failing abysmally, economists persist with their mantra that we need GDP growth and that ‘kick-starting’ the economy is the only way forward.

   9. Increasing numbers of people look behind the curtain (Wizard of Oz) and see that there is just a rather pathetic man who has actually no power at all, and it was all just a made up story.

   10. The Arctic sea ice reaches an unprecedented [in the absence of storm systems] low late September, and then begins its annual refreeze.

   11. Photosynthesis in the Northern Hemisphere fails to keep pace with industrial emissions, and the brief period of decline in atmospheric CO2 [due to Northern Hemisphere photosynthesis reverses and heads for a new record high in May 2021, with all the dire consequences commensurate with the unprecedented level and unprecedented rate of increase. .

   12. Political candidates and the mainstream media ignore most (if not all) of the above, and pretend the collapsing system has a long-term future.

   • Indeed, and I think TOP is perhaps the only party not succumbing to 12.

5. I grew up watching NZ elections being lost rather than won. I’m convinced Andrew Little believed that would the case in 2017 which is exactly why he hung around as Labour leader for 18 months longer than he should have. Ironically, his polling actually went down when John Key surprisingly stood down. Very telling.

   In 2020, National obviously believe their best and only hope of becoming the next Government and with the considerable assistance of our alleged media, was to undermine the strong support the Government has over it’s pandemic handling and superb Ardern leadership. It’s an incredibly toxic, divisive and negative campaign National are running. They are very deliberately for their own gain, attempting to destroy all important confidence during a health emergency. At any other time in our history this would be seen as devastating treason. They offer absolutely far king nothing positive. It’s very easy to spend the money of others in your personal quest to become Government but glaringly obvious questions arrive on scene every time Collins the most untrustworthy politician in NZ makes a BS promise. Does she know that the diabolical under funding in almost every area by her previous Government created many of the infrastructure issues we are now facing? and 2, if National actually gave a flying fark about anything other than the smoke and mirrors farcical “rock star economy”, why didn’t they address even one of the issues she is now spouting off about addressing?

   Labour will “win” the upcoming election. The only relevant question there is, will they be able to Govern alone.

   Untrustworthy National and their totally untrustworthy despicable leader will continue on running a negative undermining toxic and divisive campaign. They will be wiped out on election day but will have damaged the confidence of kiwis and the desperate Collins will do everything and anything to destroy the credibility and validity of Labours impressive victory. The big questions there are as follows. How many National Party MP’s will be sent packing? Answer. Many. How long will it take for Christopher Luxon to take over from Collins.? Answer. Less than 48 hours. How long after this will it take for Collins to announce her retirement from politics to allegedly spend more time with her reprehensible partner? Answer. Less than 14 days after election day.

   Will The Greens scrape by with 5%? It’s so touch and go I can’t answer that. I hope they do but damage has been done.

   Will the Winston First Party survive? Absolutely NOT. They have zero hope of passing 1.5%. We all know the reasons for this well deserved outcome.

   Will the ACT Party do as well as polling suggests. Probably but I hope not for a list of reasons.

   The other also ran’s will be a wipe out and can finally crawl back into their holes where they belong.

   • I agree with most of that but would like to add that hang-around Little is untrustworthy (as detailed previously on TDB) and that Jacinda is surrounded by other no-hopers…the minister for broadcasting being a prime example of a-sit-and-do-nothing seat-warmer.

     I am a bit confused about Jacinda. She is an acolyte of neoliberalism, that is clear (spent time in Tony B Liar’s company and worked i n one of his departments according to Wiki).

     But is she actually an outright liar? (like Tony B Liar)

     The reason I ask is that on Breakfast (in the background as I do my Internet research) I heard her say that she had raised basic benefits. Yet I have been reading on TDB how she hasn’t raised basic benefits, and that there is a two-tier system, with long-term unemployed still languishing on unimproved allowances.

     As Jacindafan, I’m sure you will be able to give me the answer to that one.

     PS I still regard Jacinda as the best of a very, very bad lot.

     • Afewknowthetruth,

       I’m not necessarily a supporter of the entire Labour team. Not all are from the top drawer. In saying that, i’d prefer them any and every day over the wet toilet paper the National Party have put up.

       When Key was PM, his followers were like disciples convinced he could do no wrong. Key was effectively their God. They are invariably like that with all their leaders…even the diabolical ones like Collins.

       Along comes Ardern and anyone who had the audacity to support her was immediately branded a sycophant. I’m a fan of course but not an unconditional fan. She is a human being and as such is susceptible to making errors. Those errors have been minor and very forgivable. The vested interest out there grossly inflate, misrepresent and exaggerate any error Ardern ever makes and more importantly, they attribute the errors of others directly onto Ardern despite it having nothing to do with her. Ardern has had a bigger to do list than any other NZ PM since WWII and hasn’t developed the rare talent of being in 389 places at the same exact moment. She is crucified for this “weakness”.

       We are extremely fortunate to have her as our PM at this time. Many will not appreciate just how fortunate for many years.

       The top half dozen in Labour’s team are excellent….then we have a few very goods, a few goods, a few averages and a couple that are poor. Overall I feel they are very good team with scope for improvements. Light years better than any alternatives.

       • Thank you for that.

         I agree: Light years ahead of the rabble that make up most of the rest of parliament…which most of the time operate at the level of an intermediate school playground, and sometimes at the level of a kindergarten play group.

         i agree that Jacinda gets pilloried for any error, whether hers or someone else’s. That keeps the heat off the incompetent fools and sociopaths that constitute other parties.

         Nevertheless, Jacinda did say basic benefits have been raised, when in fact, as far as I can tell, they haven’t. She will be absolutely crucified if she makes that kind of ‘mistake’/lie in a televised debate.

         You know how it is: the mainstream are desperate to get sociopaths back into power so that more wealth can be siphoned off by the top 1% -even if that causes mega-fast catastrophe for the bulk of the populace in the short term and an uninhabitable planet in the medium term. (The way we are going -continually repeating actions that cause bad outcomes- there is no long term.)

         • Not sure why you ask such a silly question to such a biased respondent. Of course she is a liar and easily up with TB. Remember the “tens of thousands deaths“ she scared us all with?

           • If you prefer the response of the “leader” of the US, you are welcome to their pandemic outcome. Same for just about any other country on the planet.

   • Problem for National is that they can’t believe that Labour could be better managers than they are. That’s why they have to have a crack at the Covid response – apart from which they have nothing else.

6. I’m not a pedant, MB (yeah right!), but “the proof is in the pudding” means sweet FA.
   What you – and thousands of others who make the same mistake – actually mean is
   “the proof of the pudding is in the eating”. Just saying.

7. “40 Days until the NZ Election – where are we and what happens next?”

   “…40 Days until the NZ Election…”
   ( Cough-cough…) I think that should be the AOTEAROA / NZ election.
   ” – where are we… ”
   Up shit creek with a borrowed paddle while our PRIMARY INDUSTRY farmers suicide because four Australian owned banksters suck out their reasons for living as we dip shits are about to go hungry an’ that.
   Tony Abbot? A feakish little demon with gargantuan ears and a tiny diddle ( You seen him in his speedo’s ? I mean, c’mon? God? Where’d you get that diddle you put in abbot? The bottom of the mouse diddle box?
   “…and what happens next?…”
   Fuck all. Fuck. All.
   I read as much as I can stomach and I’ve yet to read that there’s some game changing, mind blowing, stop-the-press political change afoot. It’s the same windbags blowing the same wind while achieving the same thing and that same thing is fuck all.
   Not one of you brave media souls are brave enough to have a go at the deep state, corporate crooks who can still go about their business without running for their lives. The same riche wankers beat the same tracks into OUR parliament to lobby in THEIR interests to and get the same things. Namely, more of our money for them and less of our money for us.
   Just because neoliberalism changes its shit stained undies from time to time doesn’t make neoliberalism gone or going.
   If this election can teach us anything it surely must be that if WE want change then it’s up to US. Not them. We should remember that our politicians are merely the administrators of OUR wishes which by now should instead be forthright, urgent, clear, direct and vigorous demands.
   It always blows my feeble mind to see on RNZ, for example, the deep and meaningful discussions of sports, sports people and sundry other wondrous wastes of money while we skirt past the hungry and homeless in downtown Kiwi-As Bro AO/NZ “Go The Blacks !” ( Brought to you by AIG. )
   What’s that about…???

   • I appreciate it’s hard to keep track of the rotating door that is Australian leadership over the last decade, but Scott Morrison is the current PM of Australia and has been since 2018.

   • Always with bayonets fixed,…and the truth hurts. And they ( neo liberals, don’t like it up em)

     Corporal Jones.

8. Nice rant, as usual, countryboy. And all of it spot on except:

   ‘We should remember that our politicians are merely the administrators of OUR wishes’

   I put it to you that politicians are merely the administrators of the wishes of banks and corporations and opportunists.

   I vividly remember Jonathan Young handing me a National Party ‘fact sheet’, when I raised concerns about the so-called Food Safety regulations that National were proposing to tamper with to reduce the opportunity for small traders to grow and sell produce; the ‘fact sheet’, although printed with a National heading and logo, was written in American English, with American spelling and American use of words -clearly obtained straight from the desk of Monsanto or some other giant American corporation, keen to stamp out competition and get everyone hooked into their toxic systems.

9. Has anybody seen the Labour partys Deputy leader? Whathisname??

   • Good question. More about The Invisible Man here

   • I must admit I didn’t know till I read this:

     ‘Deputy Labour Leader Kelvin Davis said he was proud of the Government’s track record this term of elevating the status of our history and Māori culture.’

     Full article:

     The Labour Party is backing New Zealanders’ calls for Matariki to become New Zealand’s 12th public holiday.

     Matariki heralds the start of the Māori New Year and has now become a time of celebration not just for Māori but for many New Zealanders across Aotearoa.

     “As I’ve travelled around New Zealand I’ve heard the calls for Matariki to become a public holiday – it’s time has come. It will also be a confidence boost that many sectors need right now,” Labour Party Leader Jacinda Ardern said.

     “Matariki will be a distinctly New Zealand holiday and a time for reflection, celebration and to look to the future as we take increasing pride in our unique national identity.

     “We don’t have many statutory holidays compared to other OECD countries and it would be good to break up the long run through winter,” Jacinda Ardern said.

     Deputy Labour Leader Kelvin Davis said he was proud of the Government’s track record this term of elevating the status of our history and Māori culture.

     “Making New Zealand history compulsory in schools, support for land wars commemoration and unveiling a statue to acknowledge Dame Whina Cooper have all helped to give a voice to a history, people and culture,” Kelvin Davis said.

     “A new holiday will help out our domestic tourism and hospitality sector as New Zealanders plan mid-winter getaways and will also allow the tourism industry to market Matariki globally to international travellers as a uniquely New Zealand winter experience in years to come.

     “Celebrating Matariki every year will give Māori a chance to share our unique traditions, our history and our stories with the rest of New Zealand. Matariki means many things to many people – but for me it will always be a day where I will reflect on how far we have come as a country and be proud.

     “None of our current public holidays recognise Māori culture and tradition. Making Matariki a public holiday is another step forward in our partnership as a people and a further recognition of te ao Māori in our public life.

     “It is important to acknowledge that Covid-19 has had a significant impact on businesses and public holidays can create additional costs, which is why it wouldn’t come into force until 2022.

     “We will work with Matariki experts to design and determine the appropriate dates for the public holiday, but we expect it will always fall on a Monday or a Friday,” Kelvin Davis said.

     New Zealand has 11 public holidays, counting regional anniversaries as one. Of the OECD countries, we are in the low-to-middle range for public holidays – with 18 countries having more than us, and 12 fewer.

     The last public holiday introduced was Waitangi Day nearly 50 years ago.

     The Employers and Manufacturers Association responded:

     The EMA says the Government’s announcement today of an extra public holiday for Matariki from 2022 is unlikely to find favour with its business members.

     Chief Executive Brett O’Riley says it will be seen as another cost to business and is unlikely to support increased tourism, which was the original argument for an extra public holiday during COVID-19 Alert Levels 1 and 2.

     Mr O’Riley says the Government priority should be focused on fixing the dysfunctional Holidays Act.

     “We need to see a simplified and streamlined process for calculating entitlements and creating efficiencies for business.”

     “We understand the cultural argument about Matariki being considered important enough for a public holiday, but it could have been exchanged with one of the other public holidays,” he says.

     https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106930/labour-campaigns-making-matariki-countrys-12th-public-holiday-2022

     • That’s brilliant news!!

       Having Matariki as a MAIN holiday each year, would make a huge difference to our sense of who we are as a nation, to the rhythm of our lives each year, and to our collective ‘soul’ as ‘these humans who live in Aotearoa’. (They can throw out just about any other public holiday that they like, if they just replace it with Matariki.)

     • It is a bit racist, forcing people to have another day off for a Maori thing eh?
       Who did they consult with? The stars themselves?

       I propose that if they throw Ihumātao into the deal and have that returned to iwi then ka pai. Otherwise no deal. No Ihumātao, No Matariki. Thats the deal.

       • Surely it is no more racist than imposing the phony Christmas festival (which has nothing to do with Christ and is simply a Romanised version of the pagan midwinter festival that celebrates the ‘death of the Sun and its rebirth over a three day period) and is 6months out of kilter, or the even more phony Easter, which is a Romanised version of pagan spring festival, and in NZ is also 6 months out of kilter.

         It makes perfect sense to celebrate the ‘death and rebirth of the Sun’ in on or around the winter solstice, June 21st, and would make a lot of sense to celebrate the rebirth of nature in the [ NZ ] spring, i.e. spring equinox.

         However, that would mess up the gross commercialisation of both festivals, which have come to represent the very opposite of anything Christ ever suggested.

       • Short answer, Yes.

         The stars themselves?

   • You’ll find his contact stuff online. Get in touch and tell him you’re missing him.

     There is a thing in this country that if a politician isn’t in the newspapers every day or every other day they’re doing nothing. Then of course if they are obvious daily all the bitching is about them only doing stuff to get in the media.

     When cruise liners finish a trip do the grease monkeys who kept the boat going line up and farewell the passengers? Do they mix and mingle and big note it every day on the cruise or is it sleeves up getting on doing their jobs out of sight?

     One time All Black captain Reuben Thorn used to be criticised because he was in the thick of it doing the necessary not being flashy and starry.

10. Day off, bring it on, let!s scrap the parasite Queen and her birthday, let!s replace it with Matariki

11. And once again there is no mention of Social Credit. Nor will there be, over the next six weeks unless someone develops a sense of shame. What is more, all those who want a Labour clean sweep clearly dont know what they are anticipating. If Labour were an authentic left wing party such an outcome would be wonderful – it would have the room to do some great things. But Labour isn’t remotely Left wing – its barely a shade more left than National. What it will attempt will be too little too late. National will have a quiet time having nothing to oppose. I cant see anything here to be cheering about.

12. If people thing labours deputy is bad what about nationals deputy? I see the mess Gerry has made of the Chch earthquake recovery is coming home to roost and its looking like its going to cost the NZ tax payers hundreds of millions of dollars. This is a bloody expensive mess and exactly why we can’t have this lot running our country

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