What do the Greens do if Labour win a majority? What does Labour do if they win a majority and the 3 stats that say they will

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Watching The AM Show attempt to explain why Labour are on 60% is the funniest struggle session I’ve ever witnessed.

It’s like Trump trying to explain feminist poetry.

You’ve never heard so many ‘Ummms’.

I argue that the lockdown was a unique universal event and that many voters who had never seen Jacinda outside of Breakfast TV interviews or news story soundbites watched her when they felt vulnerable and Jacinda’s incredible leadership won their loyalty in a way that sets Labour up for an unprecedented majority Government.

This gratitude occurs within the shadow of a global pandemic now out of control and destroys the Right’s demands to reopen the borders and get back to business as usual.

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This has created a special political solidarity amongst NZ voters and we see it in these 3  stats…

80% of NZ want the borders to remain closed.

More Kiwis now trust Labour with the economy.

More Kiwis trust Jacinda than Crusher.

…what the Right in NZ can not comprehend is the solidarity the lockdown generated. They are all selfish individualists and can’t imagine what being bonded for the common good actually feels like, that’s why they are floundering and sounding so tone deaf to the majority who want their shared sacrifice respected not demeaned.

The only people voting National now are those who call the PM ‘Cindy’, get irrationally angry anytime Neve is mentioned and who think ‘Crusher’ is a great nickname for a political leader.

You would think that after a staggering 25% bombshell Poll, Judith would have realised her ruthless and needless execution of Iain on The AM Show made the electorate recoil from her in horror.

And yet here she is doubling down…

National leader Judith Collins says PM ‘probably’ knew about Lees-Galloway affair

…she can’t help herself. She is the scorpion on National’s Frog forever stinging the frog in the face half way across the River dooming them both because that’s her nature.

We saw what Crusher does under pressure, the casual malice she performed on Lees-Galloway just to create a pause in the news cycle. THIS is who she is, THIS is what she is & under this polling pressure be prepared for her to sink us to never before known dirty political levels which will only serve to push voters even further away and almost guarantee a majority Labour Government.

So what happens for progressive politics if Labour pull off the greatest political achievement under MMP and actually win a majority Government?

It has different ramifications for Labour and the Greens.

LABOUR:

There are two Jacinda’s. Cautious Jacinda and Champion Jacinda. Champion Jacinda comes out at the terror attack, the volcano erupting and the pandemic. She makes us proud and redefines leadership where kindness is a strength and not a weakness.

We love that Jacinda and on that Jacinda alone, she deserves a second term.

But then there is Cautious Jacinda who promises transformative change but only manages baby steps on the housing crisis, suicide rate, inequality, child poverty, wealth taxes and a real economic plan on how to adapt to the realities of climate change.

To date Cautious Jacinda has been hidden by blaming a lack of transformative change on NZ First as the handbrake to woke pixie dust. To some extent that is true, but in many other cases it conveniently hides the lack of real reform Jacinda has embarked upon.

The time it took to get the MP pay cuts is an example of just how slow the Public Service works and the frustration coupled with a pandemic that has amputated entire Industries demands a radical rethink of how to move forward next.

A doubling of Public Servants must be considered and a focus on radically sustainable growth with a ruthlessly secure quarantined border are the things Labour need to be serious about declaring as promises that voters can feel accountable to.

Winning a majority outright, to win the faith of the majority to do what needs to be done is a mandate that Labour simply must not squander.

If Labour win a majority there can be no blaming NZ First for being a handbrake. Jacinda must embark upon transformative change on Day 1 of her first 100 days.

GREENS: 

The Greens SHOULD NOT be in a position whereby they’re barely hanging on because the climate crisis is a rallying issue – so why are they struggling & which leaders will resign if they get lower than their 2017 result?

While I currently enjoy watching Green Party supporters on social media scrambling as they realize all their woke identity politics virtue signalling has only alienated voters with their pure temple mantras – the current talking point that Labour voters saved the Greens in 2017 so they’ll do it again seems woefully naive.

Labour voters threw the Greens a life line because Jacinda couldn’t win 2017 alone. Right now, she can form a majority Government, so why would Labour voters save the Greens when they don’t need the Green vote to get to 51%?

Relying on Labour Party pity can’t be a strategy can it?

Increasingly I think Chloe winning Auckland Central will be the only way to get back into Parliament because I think the Greens will poll under 5% now. The herdism of the NZ electorate means once voters sense an overwhelming win for one team, they join in because they like supporting the winning team.

The International vote which has always saved the Greens will be going to Jacinda this year and the Greens never ending missteps like a 52 page policy programme or a ‘Tax is Love‘ campaign are just so woeful in their attractiveness outside the Woke Twitteratti you actually wonder who is running the Party.

Increasingly I fear the eco chamber of their Woke activists are actually holding the Greens hostage so that they can’t communicate anything outside pure temple mantras and this self censorship means they are caught in a vortex of diminishing purity.

If Chloe wins and they are sub 5%, she must become Leader and she must seriously consider not entering into a Government if that Government is a Labour majority.

That’s right, if Labour are 51% on their own, it means in the ruthless math of Parliament, the Greens are irrelevant. Chloe either negotiates the greatest deal with Labour even when Labour don’t need her to form a Government, or she walks from the Government altogether and creates mayhem on Labour’s left flank for 3 critical years and rebuilds the Greens into a double digit Party for 2023.

CONCLUSION:

The past wisdom has always been that the Polls tighten up and that there is no way Labour could win a majority. I think the pandemic has caused a psychological shift in the electorate that will turn conventional wisdom on its head.

 

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48 COMMENTS

  1. It is almost a patriotic duty now to “vote Jacinda” which means, unless you happen to live in Mt Albert Electorate, party voting Labour. I hope there are lots of converts in addition to the Labour faithful that will do just that. I won’t be, until Labour makes a grovelling apology for the Rogernomics wrecking ball that haunts this country still. And that is the problem with Jacinda Ardern, who I also admire greatly. By not being overtly ‘ideological’ she is very ideological indeed–supporting a substantially right wing Labour Caucus upholding the Parliamentary neo liberal consensus that has endured for 35 years.

    Enough people like me need to vote Green. MMP should not entertain one party dominated Governments, particularly until neo liberalism is sidelined once and for all.

    • “until Labour makes a grovelling apology for the Rogernomics wrecking ball that haunts this country still”.. And with one breath, completely discredit everything else you said, and will say from here on out… Seriously, we are supposed to be the “grownups” in these discussions, yet here we are, still pretending to be the hero of our own fantasies…. “grovelling apology” And what particular idiosyncrasy is that demand massaging? I am among the hundreds of thousands of people who have learnt the hard way just how destructive neoliberalism is, yet the last thing I need to see is the people charged with dismantling it, and replacing it with the system that was evolving before the great traitor Douglas destroyed it’s foundations.. In saying that, the last thing I’m interested in is watching the best PM we have had since Norman Kirk destroy her credibility by giving the news media a handle to use against her every time she opens her mouth… think on this for a few minutes.. You know who the media works for..

      • The Hugely Popular Jacinda vs Legacy of Roger situation, is known as a contradiction–and working class people have to deal with them all the time, nothing to be frightened of.

        Martyn’s header poses the question–what do Labour or Greens do if Labour wins a large majority in Sept?

        My view is that enough people should vote Green so that either Labour does not win an absolute majority, or that there is a large enough group of Green MPs to strongly suggest they be included. Certainly Greens need to well outdo NZ First also if they want to have any heft in the next Govt.

        If you check out the Greens policy announcement their workers programme is more progressive than Labours–right to strike, including solidarity strikes, restored, universal “opt out membership”, Industry wide Fair Pay Agreements, major reform of welfare etc.

        But if the people speak to the extent of a govern alone Labour administration good for them! But the legacy of Roger’n’Ruth will still be there to deal with, and Covid makes it rather urgent to do so.

        • The legacy of douglarse does need to be addressed.
          Either Labour ignores it as they have, apart from Lange resigning over it, or Labour fronts it honestly and commits itself to a better direction toward social responsibility.
          An apology is one method or a statement that clearly established that Labour is on a different path with the second being far more effective.

    • Tiger Mountain – “until Labour makes a grovelling apology for the Rogernomics wrecking ball that haunts this country.” Good point. In 1999 Tony Blair apologised to Ireland for the genocide inflicted upon it with The Great Famine. I’d similarly thought that the time should come when a government – any government – must apologise to the New Zealand people for the destruction deliberately wreaked by neoliberalism. No need to grovel, just do it.

      (In the 1960’s the Catholic Church made a half-hearted post-humous apology to Mary Magdalene, for deliberately portraying her as a prostitute, and for wickedly identifying her, by the 6thC, as the repentant whore in Luke’s gospel. Part of a documented pattern which I mention as I see it continued by the man who labelled PM Ardern a pretty Communist, and the men who this week spat at the feet of MP Nicola Willis in a Wellington shopping mall.)

      An apology for neo-liberalism is necessary, but it will only come if accompanied by a commitment to stop and to reverse, the damage inflicted upon our land and its people.

      • Well Snow, am certainly not talking about a standard ceremonial apology “for any hurt caused etc.” and in reality a minimal one would do, if accompanied by the repeal of the State Sector Act, Reserve Bank Act, SOEs, etc etc.–and the end of the neo liberal Parliamentary consensus.

        • TM
          Yes the anchor points of neoliberalism need to be removed entirely.
          Post Offices were an important local community centre and should be reinstated.
          Many small community centres died with their removal and fuel bills went up as people who could, had to travel to pay bills and get banking services or their pensions. A destructive and wasteful exercise typical of douglarse’s deeply flawed thinking and reflection of the Mount Pelerin Society neoliberal imperative.
          A treasonous mole planted in the Labour movement.

  2. Yes, as each day passes since the government’s decision to “eradicate” this virus resulting in our internal economy is more or less as it was before, versus the countries that sought to “control” this virus which you do only at its discretion, I thank the stars above Labour, Jacinda including NZ First and the Green Party were in government.

    National would have defaulted to an Aussie or worse a UK model with the economy their primary concern. And look where we would be right now if we had gone with that. And Mike Hosking’s advice! Is that schmuck now hiding in embarrassment with his worthless opinion?

    National and Collins can continue a pre-Covid election campaign all they want. Filth and roads are all she knows. And was the Pork Barrel out in force with Judith yesterday at Palmerston North or what? Complete and utter hollow promise of course.

  3. I’ll be voting National and I don’t call the PM Cindy or think “Crusher” is a great nickname.

    The reason I will be voting National is because Labour have not delivered on their flagship policies of Kiwibuild, etc. I don’t believe that they have delivered anything meaningful during this term that has helped alleviate poverty or balance inequality – things that they said they would do.

    My politics are the politics of aspiration and not the politics of envy. I believe in equality of opportunity and have progressed from one of the poorest suburbs in NZ to one of the wealthiest. I have done this through embracing the opportunity that NZ provided, an education system that made me the first in my extended family to go to university and then to apply what I learned to get ahead. I believe in the safety net of the welfare system but also believe in incentives. I have never belonged to a political party in my life but the basis of securing my vote is “doing what you say you will”. I feel the Coalition has failed in that test.

    To characterise all National voters as some sort of knuckle-dragging neanderthals is not only unkind…it is also wrong. Diversity of thought is important. It is why I read The Daily Blog.

    • They have improved wages where National did not. They have increased the minimum wage and the benefit so to say they have not alleviated poverty is disingenuous.
      I will not vote National because I believe they are corrupt in nature and because I believe they have created many of our problems of today due to their policies and lack of humanity policies.
      Building roads certainly does nothing to alleviate poverty or increase home ownership or affordability. The housing crisis created was only a crisis for those middle and lower income earners or in other words ” essential workers”. Higher income earners profitted due to the lopsided nature of Nationals policies.

      • Road building is one of the ways of soaking up valuable public funds, thus fueling arguments for cuts in other areas, with the ensuing vacuum providing space for private profiteers to step in and further fleece the public.

        National have put roads over decent healthcare – and their plummeting polling numbers reflect the popularity of their batshit crazy economic ‘strategy’.

        • The oil and transport industries have deep pockets and help fund national both directly and indirectly. Just look at Nationals performance or lack of it over the hears and the continuing lack of support for rail.
          Labour bought rail back remember.

    • I partially agree with you plc.
      Red have disappointed on several big policies, Kiwibuild the pinnacle. Clearly a policy designed when they didn’t expect to win the election… and then poorly implemented…with shambolic Ministerial oversight…and then lets not mention it and hope it goes away.

      However, by Blue “doing what they say they will” you would have gratefully received:
      1) overseas students arriving months ago in halls of residences for isolation
      2) free travel between Australia and China
      3) minimum wage increase cancelled
      4) free university education for year 1

      I could go on but I cannot be arsed.

      So yes its a balance between what Red have and haven’t done…and what Blue would have done.
      good onya.
      visiting Melbourne soon?

      • Free tertiary education for the first year is a coalition policy and watered down version of Labour’s free tertiary for the first three years.
        Not a Blue initiative at all.
        Tertiary education used to be “free” with a minimal payment of less than $20 per subject before neoliberalism and student loans ( life mortgages) where imposed.

        Kiwi build as implemented by the coalition ( not Labour) relied on developers and the private market building industry and that is where the holdup was and still is.

        The coalition is not Red.

        Blue as we know well promises privatisation and greater inequity in society that takes a long time to rectify.

    • Pic
      So its I am all right jack and fuck the rest.

      Inequality continues to grow because of the neoliberal fabric woven into the NZ economy.

      Do you also blame the poor for their situation.

      • Thanks for your comment but I wonder if you read what I said.

        I disagree with you that there in inequality inherent in the system, but I am looking at it from the viewpoint of equality of opportunity.

        Do you believe people should be penalised for maximising the opportunities that growing up in NZ provides?

  4. I’ll be voting National and I don’t call the PM Cindy or think “Crusher” is a great nickname.

    The reason I will be voting National is because Labour have not delivered on their flagship policies of Kiwibuild, etc. I don’t believe that they have delivered anything meaningful during this term that has helped alleviate poverty or balance inequality – things that they said they would do.

    My politics are the politics of aspiration and not the politics of envy. I believe in equality of opportunity and have progressed from one of the poorest suburbs in NZ to one of the wealthiest. I have done this through embracing the opportunity that NZ provided, an education system that made me the first in my extended family to go to university and then to apply what I learned to get ahead. I believe in the safety net of the welfare system but also believe in incentives. I have never belonged to a political party in my life but the basis of securing my vote is “doing what you say you will”. I feel the Coalition has failed in that test.

    To characterise all National voters as some sort of knuckle-dragging neanderthals is not only unkind…it is also wrong. Diversity of thought is important. It is why I read The Daily Blog.

        • plc.. I’m with you. I believe JA has done a great job handling the virus and the massacre . She and her Coalition have failed on what was promised to get them elected. The recovery will be difficult for either Government but failing to complete many of their planned policies doesn’t give me confidence they will do any better if re elected.

          • Her we go again ranting on about “promises”
            The Coalition made NO promises as it wasn’t formed before the election so get you mind around that.

          • New view they (Labour) deserve the same amount of time NZders gave the last lot, three terms and if they don’t deliver then its haere ra.

            • Labour has not had one term in this round yet. A Coalition Govt is hardly Labour but in spite of that Many Labour policies have been put in place to benefit NZ.
              Winston has been a handbrake.

  5. Yes Martyn,
    I think that the greens have lost their mantle of ‘eco warriors’ and now are simply social credit 2.0 sadly.

  6. The common or garden variety of hatred and disgust I feel towards the denizens of the national party and what their greed’s done to us is only tempered by my, albeit amateur safety-valve abilities to write it out. Otherwise, I’d have to go and buy an axe. Then, I’d show you scary. ( Xx @ AD.)
    Just in case I’m being followed by a like minded wish granting fairy, because it certainly looks that way, I’m going to ask that dear fairy to grant me a couple more wishes.
    #1 Labour ‘gets in’ and forms a majority government who then opens up an inquiry into exactly where our hard work earned thus well deserved wealth’s been siphoned off to and into who’s pocketsessss.
    #2 A coalition of good, proper, professional people, there must be one or two left, surely; lawyers, accountants, bankers, financial experts, foreign investment consultants etc and our Labour Government MP’s with appropriate credentials will go through our past and present politicians and their relationships to lobbying, scum bag corporateer mates like a dose of salts.
    ( Is funny. A politician can have a co-dependent and secretive relationship with a lobbying, corporate money fetishist but don’t dare fuck a person under such circumstances where concerns about a conflict of interests might be raised. )
    Dear Fairy? Can every kiwi-as political pocket be looked into, every trip to here and there be investigated, every asset and account both here and abroad is investigated with the same perverse and zealous energy at the likelihood of finding dirt that Pit Bull WINZ is renown for?
    This on today’s The Guardian.
    “Revealed: oil giants help fund powerful police groups in top US cities.
    Investigation portrays fossil fuel industry as common enemy in struggle for racial and environmental justice in America”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/27/fossil-fuels-oil-gas-industry-police-foundations
    NB: Some of you might be thinking this is the end of national. Some of national’s MP’s might be thinking similarly but if my dear wish granting fairy’s watching over my shoulder as I write, national’s far from finished. Your ‘journey’s’ only just beginning, fuckers!

  7. Well I may be wrong but I think that Ricardo Menendez March has at least as good a chance as Chloe of winning his seat. They both can do this. Ricardo is standing in Maungakiekie (where Chloe ran in 2017). In 2017 Nats’ Lee won by around 2,000 votes, ONLY because the votes of the Left were split.

    This year, at least some of those Nat voters will be re-thinking. Yes, those turning-away Nats will likely go to Labour, but the seat contains so many families who have been on the poverty line, and who have desperately needed help from Labour which never arrived, that they will be looking to the Greens’ drive to tackle poverty. So, anti-poverty campaigner Menendez, also a strong Climate Change activist, will be in their sights.

  8. This resonates with me. …what the Right in NZ can not comprehend is the solidarity the lockdown generated. They are all selfish individualists and can’t imagine what being bonded for the common good actually feels like, that’s why they are floundering and sounding so tone deaf to the majority who want their shared sacrifice respected not demeaned.

    And I am all fired up today about one thing that PM Jacinda can do, and take her Merry Men with her on the path is the pumped hydrolake possibility I heard about on Radionz, because that is where the important stuff comes from that intelligent, thoughtful citizens listen to, and I am one of them.
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018756855/lake-onslow-hydro-project-pros-and-cons 28/7 Tues
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/422060/pumped-hydro-may-result-in-biggest-infrastructure-project-since-the-1980s 26/7

  9. If you had a kid who turned out to have the easy vileness of Collins you’d know you’d done a crap job of parenting.

    If you had a dog who turned out to have the easy vileness of Collins you’d have it put down.

    If you had a political leader who had the easy vileness of Collins and you supported her, you’d know you’re as vile as her.

    • Peter. You and your mate clean green use language that seems pretty vile to me. Ever looked in the mirror and asked yourself whether a post like that is necessary. You might not like the politics of Judith Collins but let’s not attack the person.

      • People don’t like the politics AND the person behind them.

        Her track record of dirty & nasty behaviour speaks for itself – both past and present.
        If despicable people can’t be called out for what they are and do to others, then we deserve what we get.

      • NV
        Ad hominine attacks are what your hero Crusher uses freely.
        So make your mind up and find a party that don’t use these sort of tactics

  10. New Zealand, like most Western nations, is increasingly falling for the false God of voting on individual popularity. It’s extremely dangerous, and really should not be promoted (but it clearly is, even here). This is how Trump rose to power. This is how Hitler rose to power. People should (ideally) vote solely on policy and not the false hope provided by an intangible charismatic leader to “steer the ship”. Labour should be leading the polls because of it’s track record, not its leader. In that regard, it’s done a pretty poor job imo.
    My brother, who is a staunch National supporter, cynically said that if Jacinda were to suddenly switch sides and become the leader of the National Party she’d easily hand National the win. I think he’s probably right. Something to think about.

    • Nitrium
      Bizarre as that would scenario would be, I think you are bang on the money. She is a religion now. People are on their knees bowing before her.

      • If the Natz started behaving like decent Humans with the politics of kindness, they would probably soar in the polls. But that’s not gonna happen. They’re just a bunch of a-holes, every one of them. The Natz hard right neo-lib dogma more roads, public service under funding, welfare bashing, rich list arse licking policies are not currently in fashion which 25% polling shows.

  11. If the election was held today I’d seriously consider voting Labour. I’d vote NZ First if they promised to legalize cannabis – stop being so myopic Shane Jones!!

  12. Labour need the Greens so they can bat off the increased taxation as their fault. ‘Green’ James only cares about his ministerial perks therefore will agree to anything and they’ll just have to get the rest of the gang hidden behind him and Chloe (you know the 2 competent ones).

    Disappointingly no real new policies from National and even for me there is only a finite number of roads you can build……

  13. Well plc if you believe in equality why are you voting for a party whose policies exacerbate the very thing you claim to stand for. You plc like many other selfish pig headed dumb arse mongrels in our country are voting for your self. And you are voting for inequalities cause that is what the national party stand for.

  14. New view have a look at what judeath has called people and how she has treated some people, she is Marama Davidsons’ bad word it starts with c and ends with t.

  15. Labour promised a handbrake on Immigration. They tweaked down Permanent Immigration and kept low skill low pay Temporary Immigration flowing like the Niagra Falls. Holding down Wages for Kiwi Workers, through NO Bargaining Power except in the Public Services, and pushing up on House Prices and Rents. As National did before. We still have 100’s of Thousands of People here on Temporary Work Visas which shows the huge Scope of this Cheap Labour Tsunami that has Crucified Kiwi Workers with Low Wages…
    Even in this Covid Era we are still Importing unnecessary Semi and Skilled Workers on Temporary Work Visas, to work long term, claiming they are Essential. Which is total Balderdash….
    INZ and the Govt. are Facilitating this despite the recently resigned Immigration Minister claiming in several Media Outlets that if Skilled Kiwis are available and needing Work that no Visas will be Issued to bring in Skilled Workers.
    I point to the DISGRACEFUL issuing of Visas to European Workers from Covid riddled Countries taking up precious Isolation Facilities and Kiwi Jobs to come Drill on Maui Platform as a Prime Example of this when Taranaki Oil Workers alone could have very Competently and Safely have Manned that year plus Job several times over. And told INZ and the Minister that. But were ignored and the outright Lies of the Foreign Labour Agent and their Client about the lack of Skilled Kiwis were prefered and Visas duly issued. All the Jobs were Advertised but that was just “Fake” to Fraudulently and Corruptly “get around” the Visa LAWS… The Jobs were already pre allocated to Overseas Workers contingent on Visas being fraudulently procured.
    This “Fake Job Advertising for Visas” is an ongoing Disgrace in many Jobs and Industries in Aotearoa. And Labour Facilitates it as much as National did…
    When will this be consigned to History and INZ made to Actually do their Job according to the Law???

  16. Hard on the heels of covid is global heating.
    Don’t sort that and I don’t care who and the rest is short-term irrelevance.
    We went hard and early on covid – it’s too late for early – best we can do now is hard and late.
    That “nuclear-free moment”? Hasn’t gone away – isn’t going away.

  17. The people most threatened by Covid-19 were majority National voters, and National’s policy regarding borders put their existence at risk.
    So of course they have switched allegiance.
    Once the threat has gone they will switch allegiance back.
    This voter base of older kiwis is far bigger than National’s other support group made up of business types, many of whom are nothing more than tradies with a double cab and a contract who have been kept quiet with funding for infrastructure and school maintenance.
    This switch is not permanent so don’t be blinded by reality.

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