Watching The AM Show attempt to explain why Labour are on 60% is the funniest struggle session I’ve ever witnessed.
It’s like Trump trying to explain feminist poetry.
You’ve never heard so many ‘Ummms’.
I argue that the lockdown was a unique universal event and that many voters who had never seen Jacinda outside of Breakfast TV interviews or news story soundbites watched her when they felt vulnerable and Jacinda’s incredible leadership won their loyalty in a way that sets Labour up for an unprecedented majority Government.
This gratitude occurs within the shadow of a global pandemic now out of control and destroys the Right’s demands to reopen the borders and get back to business as usual.
This has created a special political solidarity amongst NZ voters and we see it in these 3 stats…
…what the Right in NZ can not comprehend is the solidarity the lockdown generated. They are all selfish individualists and can’t imagine what being bonded for the common good actually feels like, that’s why they are floundering and sounding so tone deaf to the majority who want their shared sacrifice respected not demeaned.
The only people voting National now are those who call the PM ‘Cindy’, get irrationally angry anytime Neve is mentioned and who think ‘Crusher’ is a great nickname for a political leader.
You would think that after a staggering 25% bombshell Poll, Judith would have realised her ruthless and needless execution of Iain on The AM Show made the electorate recoil from her in horror.
And yet here she is doubling down…
…she can’t help herself. She is the scorpion on National’s Frog forever stinging the frog in the face half way across the River dooming them both because that’s her nature.
We saw what Crusher does under pressure, the casual malice she performed on Lees-Galloway just to create a pause in the news cycle. THIS is who she is, THIS is what she is & under this polling pressure be prepared for her to sink us to never before known dirty political levels which will only serve to push voters even further away and almost guarantee a majority Labour Government.
So what happens for progressive politics if Labour pull off the greatest political achievement under MMP and actually win a majority Government?
It has different ramifications for Labour and the Greens.
There are two Jacinda’s. Cautious Jacinda and Champion Jacinda. Champion Jacinda comes out at the terror attack, the volcano erupting and the pandemic. She makes us proud and redefines leadership where kindness is a strength and not a weakness.
We love that Jacinda and on that Jacinda alone, she deserves a second term.
But then there is Cautious Jacinda who promises transformative change but only manages baby steps on the housing crisis, suicide rate, inequality, child poverty, wealth taxes and a real economic plan on how to adapt to the realities of climate change.
To date Cautious Jacinda has been hidden by blaming a lack of transformative change on NZ First as the handbrake to woke pixie dust. To some extent that is true, but in many other cases it conveniently hides the lack of real reform Jacinda has embarked upon.
The time it took to get the MP pay cuts is an example of just how slow the Public Service works and the frustration coupled with a pandemic that has amputated entire Industries demands a radical rethink of how to move forward next.
A doubling of Public Servants must be considered and a focus on radically sustainable growth with a ruthlessly secure quarantined border are the things Labour need to be serious about declaring as promises that voters can feel accountable to.
Winning a majority outright, to win the faith of the majority to do what needs to be done is a mandate that Labour simply must not squander.
If Labour win a majority there can be no blaming NZ First for being a handbrake. Jacinda must embark upon transformative change on Day 1 of her first 100 days.
The Greens SHOULD NOT be in a position whereby they’re barely hanging on because the climate crisis is a rallying issue – so why are they struggling & which leaders will resign if they get lower than their 2017 result?
While I currently enjoy watching Green Party supporters on social media scrambling as they realize all their woke identity politics virtue signalling has only alienated voters with their pure temple mantras – the current talking point that Labour voters saved the Greens in 2017 so they’ll do it again seems woefully naive.
Labour voters threw the Greens a life line because Jacinda couldn’t win 2017 alone. Right now, she can form a majority Government, so why would Labour voters save the Greens when they don’t need the Green vote to get to 51%?
Relying on Labour Party pity can’t be a strategy can it?
Increasingly I think Chloe winning Auckland Central will be the only way to get back into Parliament because I think the Greens will poll under 5% now. The herdism of the NZ electorate means once voters sense an overwhelming win for one team, they join in because they like supporting the winning team.
The International vote which has always saved the Greens will be going to Jacinda this year and the Greens never ending missteps like a 52 page policy programme or a ‘Tax is Love‘ campaign are just so woeful in their attractiveness outside the Woke Twitteratti you actually wonder who is running the Party.
Increasingly I fear the eco chamber of their Woke activists are actually holding the Greens hostage so that they can’t communicate anything outside pure temple mantras and this self censorship means they are caught in a vortex of diminishing purity.
If Chloe wins and they are sub 5%, she must become Leader and she must seriously consider not entering into a Government if that Government is a Labour majority.
That’s right, if Labour are 51% on their own, it means in the ruthless math of Parliament, the Greens are irrelevant. Chloe either negotiates the greatest deal with Labour even when Labour don’t need her to form a Government, or she walks from the Government altogether and creates mayhem on Labour’s left flank for 3 critical years and rebuilds the Greens into a double digit Party for 2023.
The past wisdom has always been that the Polls tighten up and that there is no way Labour could win a majority. I think the pandemic has caused a psychological shift in the electorate that will turn conventional wisdom on its head.
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