2 things in favour for a Labour majority – Kiwi herdism & the new enrolment rules 

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Labour have a once in every century chance to be a majority Government in the MMP environment, I say once in a 100 year chance because the unprecedented pandemic conditions we find ourselves in are unique and once every century.

While Labour strategists should be ruthless in their determination to gain 50%+, I think beyond political gratitude and the uniqueness of the cultural solidarity that this shared universal experience of lockdown has generated, there are two features that could help Labour gain that 50% majority this election.

The first is Kiwi Herdism. There is a chunk of the NZ electorate who aren’t ideological in any shape or form, and simply want to back the winner. They stay in the undecided pool until it’s clear who is going to be the winner and side with them on election day.

National benefited from this phenomena for 3 terms, as they consistently polled as the highest Party in Polls, where as Labour had to add their number to the Greens and to NZ First to make the case they were competitive.

This year, the polls are predicting that Labour are far ahead and as such, Herdism will benefit Labour, not National. Especially if people see they might get a majority all on their own.

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The second feature that could help Labour is the recent change in the enrolment rules. Previously you had to enrol before election day to vote on election day, the rules have now changed so that you can enrol AND vote on election day.

In 2017, that equated to 19000 not being counted on top of all those who knew they couldn’t vote and didn’t.

Additional to this new enrolment change will be voting booths in Supermarkets and Malls.

This helps working class people vote and Labour tend to be the recipient of that vote.

Many pundits in the mainstream media are trying to contort themselves into ridiculous MMP math gerrymandering to explain how National have a chance of winning, I think they ignore the new enrolment environment and Herdism at their peril as pundits.

 

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6 COMMENTS

  1. Brilliant statement here Martyn and very true every word.
    “Many pundits in the mainstream media are trying to contort themselves into ridiculous MMP math gerrymandering to explain how National have a chance of winning, I think they ignore the new enrolment environment and Herdism at their peril as pundits”.

  2. Don’t forget the paid day off work – voting day. Go to the supermarket and vote while your there, fantastic.
    All the young’uns can vote when they’re buying the beers. Nats are toast.

  3. I remember reading comments from some National supporters when the announcement was made that there’d be voting booths in supermarkets and malls. There was disgust that booths would be in such places as those because it would favour Labour. ??

    Yes, the stupidity is obvious, but not to the Natz mob. Work it out:
    Don’t have polling booths where people congregate. What?
    Yes, polling day is Saturday and people go shopping on Saturdays in 2020 because that’s when shops are open. Not so in 1972.

  4. Sage seems lost despite some wins with DOC and Swarbricks future lies with the results of the referendum on marajuana. If the loses she will be seen as a loser if it wins she will deserve the mana that will come to her. The Greens seem to be a better party in opposition as they do not know what to do with the power they have being in Government .

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