What the leaked UMR Poll says about the election

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
102
3892

GRANT: “Winston calm down, you don’t even have to look him in the eyes”
WINSTON: “And Marama, I can ignore her too right”.
JACINDA: “Guys, kindness please, James is right there, he can hear us talking about him”.
JAMES: “….”

So now we know why Labour are hell bent in ensuring the election goes ahead in September…

A leaked poll shows National has dropped below 30 per cent, and Labour at 55 per cent

The UMR poll shows the Greens are on 5 per cent and New Zealand First – Labour’s Coalition partners – on 6 per cent. The poll shows that the Act Party are on 3 per cent – its highest UMR poll rating since 2011.

National, however, is at 29 per cent in the poll – its lowest polled rating in more than a decade.

…what does this say.

Well it says exactly what TDB has been saying for some time.

Jacinda’s extraordinary leadership has been genuinely appreciated by the majority of the electorate and she has helped Labour soar to 55%.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

Simon Bridges ill judged and ill toned response to the shared sacrifice the majority of New Zealanders feel they have made has seen National crash to 29%.

Jacinda’s extraordinary leadership has sucked the news oxygen out of NZ First and the Greens, with the Greens over polling before every election, the Greens have every chance of sliding under 5%.

The incredible jump by ACT shows a schism has opened up on the right, which is what TDB had been predicting for some time.

If this internal Poll result is reflected in a TVNZ or NewsHub Poll, there will be a leadership challenge against Simon Bridges led by someone who can cut a deal with Winston, and that could only be Judith Collins.

The Left has much to feel happy about in this internal Poll, B-U-T the real work on rebuilding the economy is urgent and immediate an could still cost the Government.

The pride many NZers feel in the way Jacinda has protected us can turn after two months of unemployment so the urgent reform of WINZ’s toxic culture, small to medium business aid and the establishment of a UBI MUST be the highest priority for the Government if it wishes to see a second term.

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102 COMMENTS

  1. good news. The rights attack lines today are: Maoris! Gangs! and Checkpoints that no longer exist! Enter Hobsons’ Choice to add the voice of the sad, old white bigots desperate for a time ‘when Maori knew their place’. I think/hope NZ has moved on. 29% for National must be ringing alarm bells somewhere. Who to blame for a start. Seymour to do a reverse Brash and take over national? Bishop would be keen.

    • 29% is just a headline number it’s got nothing to do with an election and it certainly does not mean that The Greens, NZFirst or Labour can rest.

  2. Hmmmm… providing NZ First is safe, this forces me to party vote Green again. No prob’s with that, but just for once I’d like to vote for Uncle Winnie’s party.

    MWHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!!!

    • I’m “pivoting” @WK (in this space, going forward) There’s just one or two problems with Winnie, though he probably deserves a shot given his contributions over the years – Winebox and all.
      One problem is that he’s hitched himself to the wrong wagon in terms of his bestest bros. (I.e. the Noble Savage cargo cultist that is Shane).
      I could pivot a little further in his favour if (for example) Ron Mark and Trace the Ace (despite the whole Gráinne Moss Oranga Tamariki stuff) took a higher profile than the Jones and his oversized ego (in the NZ1 ecosystem).
      Decisions decisions eh!

      • Yeah look, … Trace and Ron, could be brought forward, but they do not have the stage personality as Jones.

        I think that’s why… Trace Martin, the able administrator, and Ron Mark, the competent military and geo political thinker…that these last two are the background types…whereas Jones creates the controversy and gets the ball rolling.

        He is the ‘front guy’. They really all do have important and specific roles in the political machine.

        I tend to look past Jonesy and more towards the general party politics, – one that looks out for New Zealanders above all and anyone else. Because that’s where we need to be when this global economic downturn really kicks in.

        Because rest assured, – no one else is going to be looking after us.

  3. Amen. I actually have no real problem with the Labour party taking this opportunity. If we had a stand alone Labour government without the handbrake that is NZ First, then we have a real chance to get the recovery underway, at the pace it needs to.
    National is the most obviously misnamed party in NZ, as they are no more than he last vestiges of colonial influence, and privilege, and really should have died off decades ago. The greens, once they, or if they, rediscover their focus on what are the important issues they exist to represent can still be a positive influence on the way forward. Elitism, and protection of a small group of privileged individuals based on a tradition that has long since been shown as a desire to return to feudalism has out stayed its welcome, and is now the main impediment to the health, oand process of NZ societal evolution. I never thought I would ever say this, but the ends justify he means. Especially as the men’s won’t hurt a lot of innocent people this time.

    • Why do people keep calling NZF a handbreak on Labour?
      NZF adheres to an old school philosophy of using government spending to stimulate the economy as shown by the provicial growth fund and Winston’s comments recently about the government owning Air New Zealand.
      It’s Labour and then Green’s who adhere to the bogus concept of budget responsibility and stimulating economic growth by not spending money.
      NZF might be a handbreak in other areas but economically they have been to the left of Labour.

    • Simply destroy neo liberalism and you will get what you want. The only real alternative is Keynesianism, or a modified variant thereof.

      Basically it is TINA in reverse.

      • This bullshit doesn’t matter. Just look at the stock markets they’re hovering around all time historical highs while the economy is tanking towards 15% unemployment.

        1. The magical money universe is not the real world
        2. Popular polling is not the real world

        We throw around these buzz words like sustainability, renewables, social justice and conservatives have there narratives in times when polling is at 50% or 40% or what ever like strong and stable, it’s Labours fault ect. All fucken bullshit. The mantra for the last 40 years was just a big con.

        So let’s look at it. Greatest threat facing humanity is climate change and nuclear war. And if anyone wants to be my smooth headed child then go ahead. I’m using the IPCC report and publicly released Pentagon threat assessments so if you’ve got issues with The UN and The Pentagon then please by all means hold up your little normie memes, sign a petition and fuck off.

        So let’s take sustainable, renewables, social justice, AND strong and stable, it’s Labour wank and bundle it all up to create a kiwi Captain Planet with all the powers that the New Zealand political elites can bestow on our most amazing super hero to come and save our special smooth headed political children.

        Okay now let’s ask how long our does this most magnificent gesture to New Zealand politics last during a nuclear winter and I tell you how long he last because he’s fucken dead in the first exchanges. That’s how long Green Party models last, that’s how long Labour welfare reforms last and that’s how long Nationals strong and stable bullshit last. Fucken dead.

        I mean what is resilience, sustainable, renewable, strong and stable, good economic management if New Zealand’s premier City, Auckland, can’t even withstand one, just one fucken nuclear winter. What do these stupid fucken words mean of they can not even withstand an intellectually light thought experiment on some random blog let alone standing up to a fucken nuclear war. Yknow is any of this penetrating the smooth headed doom or am I just sliding alone like huh? There goes that Sam again with his rants, “find his meds.” Nigger I’m the one shaking my fucken head.

        So first of all there are RMA reforms so that there are no new Single Story Dwellings and every roof gets solar (subsidised or straight out government funded I really couldn’t careless) then you could plug and play any sort of winterised technology you wanted. I know I’m being super facetious but Yknow when I see oh The Greens are the worst or like Weka that the Coalition would be better with out NZFirst I’m like my smooth headed children are so special aren’t they.

        And how do your we keep the missiles away and why doesn’t this fantasy winter technology fall down as our Kiwi Captain does you might ask? And well you’d need an Air Force, an Army, and a Navy with big expensive Frigates, Medium Tanks and big expensive fighter jets and an NZDF with capabilities of our own.

        Yknow and I can hear all the smooth headed children moaning about how to pay for it, “what about welfare, what about homelessness, what about small business.” Shut the hell up! The economic multiplayer that we would expect from any sort government infrastructure investment, we would expect at least $1 dollar of economic activity is created in moving personal around the country, they’re going to want families with schools or what ever Yknow we want military families to live a comfortable middle class life with all the trimmings and a big 40-60 billion NZDF recapitalisation fund in conjunction with a massive multi hundred billion dollar infrastructure spend up would pay for all resilience and sustainability and all that in a very real sense since of those words.

          • I legit ranted for 10 minutes in order to trigger all the fem bots (feminine boys and masculine girls) in the community with ligit level 100 corona virus expertise.

              • Then in the best of all possible worlds how would you nullify the effects of nuclear weapons assuming a population of 5 million, GDP is $300 billion and a land mass and economic zone about the size of New Zealand with 2 nuclear armed states assuming a GDP of 20 trillion each facing off against each other and you smack bang in the middle?

  4. I see nothing coming from this government to say them know how to proceed back into full production. In a way calling the level 4 lockdown was easy . It obviously saved lives which we can all be proud of as most went along with the rules . Now is the hard part. There are going to be winners and losers and hard calls to be made . Unemployment figures and business failures will swamp the headlines . Yesterday in Chch a chain of 5 hospitality outlets closed for good. They will be the first of many. I predict crime and violence will increase as anger takes the place of all pulling together.
    It is obvious Labour is ahead at the moment as people are grateful their life’s were saved by their actions but willthe public be so happy in a couple of months when the wage subsidiary stops and the economic truth hits home.

    • You hit the nail on the head! There’s the gem of an idea for National – violence will increase, gangs will take over, people will die. It’s just the sort of braindead negative manufacturing of fear approach they are likely to adopt as their positive way forward.
      And don’t forget jails. Hopefully someone on parole does something stupid and they can promise more jails.

      Don’t overlook the economic realities there to be used though. We’re in an instant coffee, ‘there’s a new virus, we’ll have a vaccine out next week,’ world. The 3 second concentration span mentality that says the economic situation as it was on January 26th should prevail on September 12th and if it doesn’t, if we aren’t back on that exact footing by then the Government’s incapable and has no idea.

      There’s plenty to appeal to fuckwits and get them going and the National Party has the ideal personnel of the same ilk to do it.

    • Good ideas Trevor S, but it’s “their lives’ not “their life’s” (I was once a school teacher).

      • Nice point but I was not aware this is a class in linguistics. Be careful here , because even the most primitive forms of communication must be construed as a sign of intelligence and the advanced development of the frontal lobes.

        Thus sign language is as the precursor to phonetics, which, invariably, emphasizes sound over the more archaic modes of languages of the dominant culture and its historical evolutionary nuances.

        Which, has aided anthropologists down through the century’s when confronted with tribal peoples to which said anthropologist had no former viable template with which to measure or gauge by.

        It is a tribute to the general human condition, however, that in the use of phonetics and sign language, that over time vast expanses of knowledge could be gleaned and built upon by the use of such simple modes of communication.

        However, what most anthropologists and linguistics fail to appreciate is, is that the raised (and ideally) base pitch of the human voice, produced by air from the lungs being processed or modified by all speech organs above the lungs, – primarily the glottis, pharynx, nose, tongue, and lips and done with much exertions of those bodily parts,… will produce such unmistakable impressions to which most verbal messages can then be stripped down to its most basic , elemental and fundamentally expressed desire, … such as the one we use to express towards neo liberals.

        Which is of course, …

        FUCK OFF !

  5. Stop the Bus! Its just another ‘leaked’ internal poll. They mean nothing other than the authoriser of the poll taps into their fan base!!

    All this single poll if lined up with the other ‘leaked’ poll(s) means, the pollster is shite at running polls, because theyre surveys dressed up as polls.

    • I’ll wait, reserve judgement until after the Budget in a few weeks time and the C19 second wave has hit in the middle of winter. About a month before the election!

      • DennyPaoa: “….the C19 second wave has hit in the middle of winter.”

        That’s my view as well, and that of others I’ve spoken to. The evidence from the northern hemisphere suggests that it’s a winter virus – surprise surprise – and so we can likely expect another visitation around July-August. Maybe a bit earlier.

        As you say, just before the election. And the government will not be able to successfully pull off the level 4 stunt again: too much damage, both economically and politically.

          • Aye bert, a little harsh towards D’Esterre, he/she just might be on to something that can be used for the COL political election campaign, ”Do we really want a repeat / reversal under the National govt?”…

            • Nope. If doctored and nurses start showing up dead you bet your arse New Zealand will go right the fuck back into level 4 lockdown with the blessing of every sane person alive.

  6. In the age of dirty politics you have to be very careful with polls!

    In the past, polls have made the neoliberal left very complacent and starts their woke mantras up, more taxes to the middle class, more migrants into the country for “diversity”, and then surprise, surprise the unwinable right end up in power aka ScoMO and Trump and Boris and the lefties by stupidity and lack of compromise, break up influential alliances like Brexit to create the opposite conditions they purport to want!

    All doing great guns to destroy democracy around the world, as increasingly the left are out of touch with their working and middle class nationals, and instead have policy to support the 1% big business lobbyists and 2% of woke who think misplaced pro nouns are hate speech while advocating zero immigration controls so the country end up importing in actual hate terrorists like Tarrent.

    Remember we have had neoliberal governments so dysfunctional they detained Maori in Urewera as terrorists and spied on earthquake victims while ignoring migrants obtaining weapons in NZ or importing in Meth for 26 years while never filing a NZ tax return and living well beyond their means. Don’t forget the compassionate residency for drug smugglers in Jail and rapists.

  7. Fake news is everywhere in particular our woke journalists.

    While other countries journalists are concerned about the shrinking middle class and what to do about it, NZ journalists in 2019 are telling everyone that that’s not happening in NZ we are doing so well because the measure is having a fridge or machine machine. Remember 2019 we faced significant problems with practically every shortage possible in a country from housing to wages.

    https://www.noted.co.nz/currently/currently-social-issues/middle-class-new-zealand-how-tough-is-it

    How tough is it for the middle class in New Zealand?

    “Money worries have set off a wave of populist politics in most Western democracies, but not here. Is that because our middle class have been doing surprisingly well compared with those in other countries.”

    Oh funny that fake news!!!

    So journalists from Bauer, you have a fridge and machine machine so according to your own article apparently you are part of the successful middle class doing well!

    Good luck paying your rent and mortgage with no job and hundreds of thousands of other people to compete with – fall back on that fridge and washing machine, why don’t you with your fake news that has led to falling readership of your fake publications!

    Now that is woke irony!

    • P>S the journo pretending NZ middle class was doing great, Pattrick Smellie, is of course an ex junior press secretary for Roger Douglas. Sadly the communications to journalism seems to be generating more spin than news, and one of the many reasons nobody reads news anymore, while bringing the journalist profession into disrepute.

    • You can tune into his other neoliberal articles such as –

      Why residential property investment is falling out of trend
      Prepare for a return to the ‘old normal’ of sharemarket volatility
      Can EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmström make the left love trade again?
      13 tips for keeping the peace in a family business
      The secrets to a successful family-run business or trust
      Everything you need to know about your KiwiSaver
      Does low business confidence foreshadow an economic downturn?

      NZ journalism at it’s best (sarcasm). I wonder why media in NZ is now asking for handouts or going broke, with all their fabulous articles on offer that people really want to read because they are so accurate! Sarcasm.

      If it’s not takeaway and grocery news in our media, fake xenophobia racism articles to promote our deregulated trade industry propping up overseas shareholders, then it’s Roger Douglas led business advice driving the other 70% into poverty.

  8. Is this the same polling company that had Labour on 55% a week before the last election? What did they get on election night again? 37%. If they really have had a massive jump like this, it just goes to show you how moronic and idiotic 18% of voters are. Child poverty solved is it? Kiwibuild?, inequality and hardship? Light rail? Billion trees? Transformational tax changes? All the welfare policies enacted upon?, what a joke! Read an auto cue and smile and suddenly your a saint even though you cannot actually deliver anything meaningful, just react to stuff. What an embarrassment today’s fickle left have become.

  9. It’s a one-off bump because there is a natural tendency to support the leadership during crisis, so not especially about any characteristic of Ardern. The same thing has happened to others – eg Scott Morrison and Boris Johnson.

    I would be cautious about declaring victory so soon because the while the PM owns the victory over the virus, she also owns the economic downside of her over reaction.

  10. So far this government is navigating this pandemic probably better than we could imagine.

    BUT…

    The election is still 4 plus months away and as the old saying goes, a week is a long time in politics.

    Still, I wondered why Hosking rants were amping up lately. He is such a barometer for the inner mood of the Nats.

    • You’re right on with the thing about Hosking lately. He and those like Farrar are living bitter and twisted existences at the moment and the poll results are like having knives twisted in the wounds.

      We’d heard recently about internal polls being done and results for the Nats not being flash so today’s lot coming out was no surprise.

      One weird thing I heard on radio was that the National internal poll wasn’t shared with the caucus. What? What does that say?
      You’re in the army, you’re in a battle anyway, you’re heading into the life or death one, the General gets you round the table to lay out the plans and all the stuff relevant to what has to be done. And he keeps in his pocket a most critical piece of paper with vital, pertinent information. What is that about?

      Maybe it’s nothing untoward. Maybe it’s simply Bridges doesn’t want the information to come out because it looks so bad. Maybe he just doesn’t trust the people in his caucus. Of course we know that Paula Bennett and Anne Tolley keep secrets.

      • … ” Maybe it’s nothing untoward. Maybe it’s simply Bridges doesn’t want the information to come out because it looks so bad. Maybe he just doesn’t trust the people in his caucus. Of course we know that Paula Bennett and Anne Tolley keep secrets”…

        ——————-

        Sounds much like Hitlerite paranoia and medications.

        And fuck Godwins law. I’m tired of every far right winger quoting that to shut down debate. This is 2020 and we are all on an unseen war footing.

        Fuck them.

  11. Adern is looking to keep the election on track because she knows by early to mid next year the true nature of the economic apocalypse will be apparent and she will lose this election.
    Personally, I don’t think that Bridges can possibly justify his claim to delay this election as the lockdown should be well past by then.

    • ”Adern is looking to keep the election on track because she knows by early to mid next year the true nature of the economic apocalypse will be apparent and she will lose this election”

      ——————

      What a load of sensationalist bullshit,- if that is true then every other country around the globe and its political party’s will be doing the same. Do you not think that many who have done the same will not be grappling with the same political issues? Do you think economic disaster will only be unique to NZ ???!!?

      Are you that small minded FFS??!!??

  12. Labour are just as wedded to the neoliberalism as the Nats are, their identity a broader church than what the greens have. How are Labour doing with the traditional working class voter? When this government was formed their were structural transformative phrases uttered but that fizzed. Sure looks like labour might drag us through the initial crisis, good, but are we to be reminded of that at election time to show our thanks by voting them back in even as our poor get poorer? Truth of the matter is we were roughly due for an economic downturn, and a downturn always profits someone. what actually concerns me is the overall lack of depth of all the parties, which seem to now exist and rise and fall just based on the popularity of the leader.

    • …” what actually concerns me is the overall lack of depth of all the parties, which seem to now exist and rise and fall just based on the popularity of the leader”…

      ———————–

      Really ??!! – in the midst of a pandemic and all you can ascribe to is the ‘popularity of the leader?’….

      Do you really think that the Christchurch massacre, the White Island eruption and the global event of covid19 earmarks Adern and her COL govt out as a ‘popularity contest?’

      Really???

  13. Or more likely people are afraid and when they are afraid the one thing they want is consistency, even when its of the CP-TPPA passing, hate speech law legislating variety?

    If you look at this govts handling of the pandemic its not exactly sterling stuff. We are on similar ground to Hong Kong, who given they live cheek to jowl, seem to be doing a much better job than we are.

    The recent lame excuses made for the MOH with regards to closing our borders and human rights considerations don’t cast this govt in a good light either.

    • So back to the poll Sean K. Sitting in the 29% range means you are wrong and our response has been sterling. The trouble is 29% are demanding a second wave of coronavirus. Because they are the ones who believe the response has been poor.
      Simon will continue to say anything and as soon as he does so 29% will start to drop.
      Ironically the Hoskings of this world are doing lasting damage to National.

    • Being on “similar ground” to Hong Kong is a compliment. Hong Kong has had recent history dealing with SARS, H1N1 and possibly other virus outbreaks. It probably makes sense that given that experience, and being in a region of the world where these outbreaks happen, Hong Kong would be better prepared than most in the world.

      The fact that you compare our rookie government to Hong Kong, probably means that we are doing okay.

  14. @ xray…. I thought you wrote ” He (hoskings) is such a barometer for the inner poo of the cats.
    He could fit with room to spare…
    Little billy and the jonky’s Natzo’s were always going to implode. Do you really think the Natzo old guard was going to allow national to flourish under the steerage of bridges? They’d never countenance such a dangerous embarrassment.
    The Old Guard Natzo’s will be hiding their ill gotten gains inside trust funds and in off-shore numbered accounts while battening down the hatches. They won’t give one single little flying fuck which party gets in much less they themselves.
    They have our money and they’re gone.
    Voting in September will merely be a formality. A quaint custom. A symbol of what once might have mattered.
    The real entertainment will be the dirty brawls that’ll erupt within natzo’s caucus meetings. The mongrel dogs fighting over the scraps.

  15. If this poll is indicative of the election results, and I expect it is given the country’s reaction to the way Jacinda is deporting herself, it will have the effect of giving Labour a clear majority and the Greens and NZ First will become much less relevant to how the economy is managed in the global turmoil that’s coming down the road.
    This, unless they decide to invite Winston to continue to participate, may be very unfortunate as on performance and rhetoric so far Robertson and co will continue with the basic neoliberal settlement , reasoning that all that is wrong is that the transfer of power and control of wealth to the corporate and finance sector has not been sufficiently complete. Just as uncle Roger would say.
    It would be better if they still need him.

    D J S

  17. Oh and while we are on the subject does anyone seriously think the Trump admin wont be re-elected or Morrison govt in Australia? Or Boris in the UK?

    • Trump’s admirers will dwindle as the death rate continues to spiral and it’s your mother or close friend who dies. You’ll realise Trump cares about his own poll results, your vote but not you/you as a person. Unless he diverts you into hating Chinese. After all, Covid-19 is a Chinese plot to kill millions in the US, it’s all their fault.

      Just heard many Asians in the US are buying guns to protect themselves against a new wave of attacks. I think Trump is proving to be the Stalin of the 21st century.

  18. The most compelling fact of this poll are not the numbers. We’d all expect any Government in place during a wartime type footing to have increased popularity. Fairly confident that relates to people responding to solid leadership during uncertain times. That even worked for Mr Incompetant, George W Bush after 9-11.

    So what is the most relevant detail about this poll? Easy.

    ” When asked about that earlier this week Bridges said the caucus discussed polling periodically but he was not prepared to talk about internal polling with the media. Labour should focus on getting New Zealand back to work not leaking dodgy numbers”,

    Slyman has been spouting off to the media all day every day for two and a half years. He barks at every passing car. He “leaks” anything he feels he can traction with and score “hits”. The most frightening thing for Bwidges is his total irrelevance. As a result, he courts reporters like they are his lifeblood. As long as his name is in the headline, he’s happy, even if it’s not good news for him………but not today, he’s not interested in commenting. Calls any poll that highlights what a tosser he is “dodgy”. Says he does not discuss internal polling with the media….BULLSHIT. What he does not want to comment on is more evidence that highlights the truth. He’s not wanted as PM and his precence as National Party leader is now hurting the party…badly.

    This poll hurts National everywhere and will result in alarm bells ringing big time for National. They can’t win Government with Bridges as leader. The only questions now are, when will Bridges be sent packing and will anyone in the party want the job now knowing Christopher Luxon will be gifted the position within days of the election?

    • True , – and it doesn’t matter if its Luxton or any other grifter they choose, the facts are they are up against a govt of true intentions, not one who sells out to the nearest foreign bidder, they are up against a COL of true good heart intentions, which resonates with the wider voting public.

      The public will vote accordingly.

  19. Labour was in the 20’s last election, limped into victory.

    Polls are now meaningless.

    This election could do anything because anything can happen in dirty politics NZ aka smears and leaks against politicians, taking out minor parties, fake news story headlines (David Clark style minor transgressions, Labour sexual assaults, Winston/Turei beneficiary fraudsters) and more.

    Saying that, I think the MSM have killed the golden goose with their propaganda, and the majority of people in NZ do not take them seriously or watch/read them.

    • No, most people go by their hearts, and bless them for that. They will vote with their hearts and minds, and vote against those who threaten them.

      And currently that is National and Act.

      The flock hear and follow their shepherds voice, and run from strangers. The words of Jesus 2000 years ago are as applicable then as they are today. The human heart is still the same as it was then as it is now.

  20. Place your bets! I remember those polls on brexit & the US 2016 election…..how did they work out!
    Labour …..ARE…..TOAST.
    Heard from the accountant today, They said so many business people absolutely distraught over this lockdown, crying on the phone…some have lost everything.., particularly in tourism & service industry operations. They won’t be voting Labour I can assure you. That’s 10% of our workforce alone made redundant for the foreseeable future

    • Ross Mathews,

      Everything ok in your bubble? Anyone who has seen Jacinda perform and so many in NZ embrace her, even National Party supporters and then say Labour are toast, needs to dramatically dial back their meds.

      I have learned to treat all polls barring election day polls with skepticism. What I do trust is my own eyes and knowledge.

      1) In uncertain times, people will gravitate toward stable and proven leadership. Ardern has provided this during unprecedented times for most of the population.

      2) Most people flat out don’t trust Slyman Bwidges.

      3) Kiwi’s are seeing what an inclusive caring Government looks like after 9 years of the entitled and divisive National Party only looking after themselves and those doing well while displaying indifference toward others. What a legacy.

      4) Kiwis are actually protective of Ardern now after two years of National and their trolls ridiculing her, misrepresented her, undermining her, butchering her name and appearance.

      5) Kiwi’s are absolutely despising the likes of Mike Hoskings etc etc more than ever to the point of feeling unwell when seeing them. The population of NZ associate those latrine rodents with the National Party. The “scoring hits” 24/7 campaign headed by Bwidges has been an epic fail. They have barked at too many passing cars and are just annoying and irritating people.

      6) Most people who view Ardern in action can see she’s a rare leader with many miles still to run on her clock.

      7) The time of this National Party has been and gone. They are like dinosaurs but with a bewildering level of arrogance and entitlement as always.

      8) Ardern is liked, trusted and respected.

      9) Bridges and National are not liked, not trusted and not respected.

      10) Covid-19 gave both Ardern and Bridges the perfect opportunity to stand up and show great leadership. One absolutely nailed it….every day. The other couldn’t possibly have fucked it up more. Death threats and nausea are just the tip of a growing iceberg.

      As a result of the above and much more, I would put weight on this recent poll as being credible.

      The Nats have an enormous problem. Their leader is not liked, not trusted, not believed and not wanted. He has to go. Nats are not stupid and appreciate that going into the election with the status quo is effectively conceding defeat in a similar way Labour did in 2014 with the inept David Cunliffe going up against John Key. National are not known for conceding elections five months prior to election day. What can they do? Most are adamant National will have a new leader after the September election. Christopher Luxon. If Judith Collins got the job now, she knows she won’t beat Ardern at this time and will then get sent to Coventry shortly after the election. Who does that leave? Mark Mitchell? yea right. Deputy leader and election campaign head Pullya Benefit?. Nup, she knows the contempt she’s viewed with is currently on hold for one reason. She’s staying out of the picture. The sad reality for the National Party is that is the only strategy that’s working at this time is staying in their cave…

      It’s the Nats that are toast.

    • “Heard from the accountant today, They said so many business people absolutely distraught over this lockdown, crying on the phone…some have lost everything.., particularly in tourism & service industry operations. They won’t be voting Labour I can assure you. That’s 10% of our workforce alone made redundant for the foreseeable future”

      I heard from the neighbors friends, sisters, aunties, uncle, he said never listen to an accountant as they make up numbers to suit. You are so gullable.

      LABOUR….AT LEAST 6 MORE YEARS.

    • Heard from the accountant today, They said so many working people absolutely distraught over the suggestion they HAVE to work, crying on the phone…worried about their children…, angry about Opposition suggestions they must sacrifice their personal safety for profits. They won’t be voting National I can assure you.

      A different perspective.

    • National would have done the same thing, but earlier apparently, so why would they vote for National, who would have thrown them under the bus at the first sign? If not National or Labour, who do they vote for and how will that change anything?

  21. Well if these numbers can be believed and she maintains it up too the general election then we will get pretty close too a majority in the parliament which if things are too change she will need the numbers without relying on others too prop her up.

    But its very unlikely as no one has achieved a stand alone majority under MMP so far.

    National will be in a state of panic accustomed as they are too being the unassailable in the polls since 2008.

    Bridges may be gone burger but a few months is an eternity in politics what with DOVID 19 doing the rounds.

    Mr Key may want his old job back.

    • Wasn’t that the pony tail puller pervert who escaped justice regards common assault and the same that lied about the XKEYSCORE surveillance program used by the GSCB to spy on the NZ public and govts overseas including our Pacific Island friends on behalf of the USA?

      And then went on to create a South Pacific tax haven , – and ignored the warnings from the IMF?

      Don’t know if really do we want that corrupt fella back and anywhere near our decision making processes in parliament.

      It’d be a disaster and a national shame on all of us. Why trade in for that when we have brilliant leadership with Adern and an unassailable potential for even better with the COL?

  22. The bookies in oz so far are giving it; $1.44 Lab v $2.65 Nats which I reckons about right.
    Once they lobb Luxton in the ring, it’ll tighten up.

    • But Luxton has never led us through the CHCH massacre, White Island , or this current pandemic / looming economic crises. It would be like trying to compare Sir Winston Churchill with Neville Chamberlain.

      Literally.

      And while I’m at it ?…

      During the CHCH massacre and the following weeks?, – we all trusted the NZ Police and the Adern govt when armed constabulary were visible on our streets replete with automatic weapons guarding against any reprisals on the Islamic community’s, and that was a smoothly led operation ,- albeit bizarre to Kiwis,- yet we saw moderation aplenty.

      And we all lived through that, and neither the NZ Police nor the Adern led COL committed any Police state abuses, – I think we can all rest assured that the Adern led COL will lead us safely through the coming economic crises as well.

      Lets all get behind them.

  23. Farrar still has no comment. Waiting to see who is in charge come Monday? New Leader to cut ACT loose in effort to staunch the blood from the wound on basis that ACT will not get 5% so come back to the party you bunch of traitors.

  25. LOL an economist Rodney Jones was advising Jacinda over the Lockdown!
    LOL….an ECONOMIST! NOT A MEDICAL professional OR Epidemiologist
    Another nail

  26. Labour AGAIN pass the wrong Bill in Parliament! LOL…..useless!

    Officially announcing the Small Business Cashflow Loan Scheme at the 1pm press conference on Friday, Finance Minister Grant Robertson acknowledged the botch-up and said: “This is something we always intended to do, the legislation simply created the enabling framework for that.”

    • Ross Mathews,

      I see you’ve found a new home after the Trade Me message board was shut down due to people exactly like you. This is not the echo chamber of latrine rodents that sewer was where you could put up ridiculous bullshit anti Ardern / Government statements all day every day thinking you could influence voters and then bully and ridicule the intellect of anyone with the audacity to support the Government / Ardern. 20 National Party trolls for every one Government supporter.

      The numbers have done a complete U Turn here so you will be lonely and shown up as being a divisive blue troll you are.

  27. I would like to point out that after leading UK and winning a war Churchill was dumped at the election. The public can be very harsh when it comes to picking their leaders. Helen Clark still sounds bitter about her lose.

    • Churchill, like Jacinda, is neither economally nor militarily gifted but they do have the gift of the gab.

      If Jacinda was to lose out like Churchill did it will be because the entire establishment turned on her.

      In the Twentieth Century at a time when New Zealand’s largest companies, FONTERA, Fletchers, Spark ect have enjoyed 70 years of unprecedented growth and prosperity it is amazing that they are now on their knees grovelling to Jacinda begging Jacinda for hand outs.

      Although there are parralells between the present day and the lead up to WW2 everyone is a lot more connected. In the lead up to WW2 they were just getting mass produced automobiles, airplanes and radios. Today we have IPhones, Ubers and satellite communications. Why with all the advantages of the 21st century would we repeat the mistakes of the 20th century?

    • That was explained to me by my father at the time,around age 11 or 12. I could not understand the ingratitude towards this great leader….he said the war was over and people did not wish to carry on under a war footing…

      I still felt it was a betrayal of a leader who had done so much for his people…it was hard to accept such infidelity. I just had to accept it. This is the way people are.

    • Actually Clark has gone on to still be an advocate for the people. Key went to the Bank.
      See the difference between true leadership, for the people or for yourself.

  28. In nothing in common with this article barring the fighting spirit of the old south in protection of its homelands…something in common to all people who perceive themselves to be hedged in,…regardless of the political issues, I’d like to offer this upbeat song…

    Confederate Song – I Wish I Was In Dixie Land
    https://youtu.be/5OKdbc0DYpM?t=67

    It was a song even Abe Lincoln enjoyed.

  29. Early elections is what Aussies do. Despise’m. The rule of the people is concentrated on legitimate processes.

  30. Early elections is what Aussies do. Despise’m. The rule of the people is concentrated on legitimate processes. That and reality and ideals.

    The rule of the people is finally near again after 36 YEARS! It seems realistic to rich fucks.

  31. I find it difficult to see how cowing people in fear with threats of death and /or arrest is called ‘good leadership’. I believe that’s known as ‘tyranny.’

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