Ummmm – Dear Fellow Kiwis, I know we are feeling optimistic about this pandemic, but you should all read this… 

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
38
5400

Let’s start by appreciating the phenomenal leadership Jacinda has embarked upon with her go hard go early boldness.

As someone on the Left who was screaming at the Government to recognise the enormity of this pandemic back in January, I am reassured that those fears were finally listened to and the actions taken since then have protected NZ lives.

We all feel optimistic when we see our low infection numbers and deaths, and we should. We are being lauded by overseas media for our handling of this pandemic and the vast majority of us have accepted the leadership of our Government while voluntarily agreeing to a Police State.

A Democracy can’t compel by naked military force its rules, it relies on the good will of its informed citizenry to collectively agree on solidarity measures as extreme as lockdown and the fact we have all been so compliant is testament to our egalitarian values of fairness.

So standing ovation to you all.

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However.

There are new details emerging about this damned virus that I think demands our attention. There will be many Death Cult Capitalists in our country braying that we must leave lockdown in the 4th week to save the economy, I plead we ignore those voices and listen only to the science because this virus is unbelievably tricky.

Latest research is highlighting our ignorance of this virus, we are NOT sure of how much immunity recovering people have, whether it is reinfecting those who have had it or it is flaring up in those who have recovered.

This is essential knowledge we need before we consider coming out of a lockdown because it makes managing the virus so much more difficult. Are those who have recovered in NZ getting re-tested in case the virus is starting up again or to see if they are getting re-infected?

Have we even considered the need to re-test them?

I have said from the beginning we can’t get back to ‘normal’ until a vaccine is found, but mass producing billions of vaccines has never been attempted before so rolling out an equitable vaccine program is a larger problem to overcome than actually finding a vaccine in the first place.

Folks, we may have dodged a bullet in NZ because of our huge moat, but there are still many aspects of this virus we simply don’t know about and planning for a fast moving changing risk environment means we must consider decisions before we make them.

At the very least we should wait an extra week in lockdown to ensure we have everything in place to deal with a virus that could reignite in recovered patients or reinfect those who have survived it.

We have paid the economic cost of a 4 week lockdown, let’s not waste that sacrifice because Death Cult Capitalists push us back to work before we know enough about this virus to effectively fight it.

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TDB Team 2020.

38 COMMENTS

  1. indeed

    there is :

    the un-reliability of various testing methods , false-posotives , cases probable , the infected but don’t get sick , also typical of covid-19 and so have not been tested (cross testing i think is useful here) , re-activation of the same infection and so many other variables

    : to consider over the past few months .

    i know a person sick back in December but can’t remember reading anything about a virus going around but still wouldn’t be surpised if a wave of covid had already been through NZ (upside – a resistance to covid-19) .

    so wouldn’t it then be more effective to just keep the virus isolated from the vulnerable .

    the longer a country spends in lockdown the closer it draws to economic collapse and disaster , so it gets to a point .. where it becomes , untenable to do level 4 lockdown anymore otherwise everybody dies.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324210 (re-activation)

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-the-coronavirus-11579716128?tesla=y (infected with no signs of sickness)

    • Hemi I think we need fuller unbiased cross section of Scientific medical opinion than just what reporters say.

      The whole economics of NZ and its Western puppet masters needs to change over to a more social based manta.
      That is where a Govt comes in, but ours is tied to getting business as usual up and running so moving onto more inequity and export of wealth.
      We were totally unprepared for this epidemic because of vulture capitalism driving the show.
      To slide backwards into more of the same but with a deep debt created by our unpreparedness , is plain blind stupidity. But business NZ will demand that as they are now.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7RJ-e_jS1E&feature=youtu.be

      The lockdown has shown much of our needs as a community can be met with a much smaller total work hours when you cut away the luxury and mostly unnecessary application of community resources.
      We would benefit greatly from a reduced workload and more shared wealth to cover the basics of life. That can’t be done with parasites skimming unregulated profit out of the system at every stage.
      France had a 35 hour week. We once had a 40 hour week that has now long gone along with the unions and public ignorance of what is not only possible but fundamental to community life.
      Our community doesn’t exist just to support obscenely wealthy on shore but mainly off shore parasites that we have given the reins to.
      We should not go back but forward.

  2. We have paid the economic cost of a 4 week lockdown, let’s not waste that sacrifice because Death Cult Capitalists push us back to work before we know enough about this virus to effectively fight it.

    Absolutely agree.

    It’s like the potential for a tsunami when the beach is dry and clear. The ocean may have receded, but wandering down to check out the shoreline too soon is to invite disaster.

  3. Slightly off topic but relevant is our largest trading partner Australia has done a Level 2.0 to 3.1 and a bit lockdown dependent on what state it is, more slowly brought in in a not so coordinated manner and ever so reluctantly by it’s federal government. Its PM far more concerned with the economy, re-election and praying to God from his PM’s office than anything else. And yet despite this inconsistent action their official infection rate is trending far lower than ours, roughly twice the actual figures versus ours despite having a population at least 5 times bigger then ours. Today it appears Scomo’s prayers have been answered and it’s a miracle!

    But if, as I suspect, this turns out to be rather wishful thinking and misleading given their death toll and hospitalisation rate are substantially higher per head of population and this newly cleansed Australia turns out not to be, do we risk opening our borders with them based on their official statistics? Or does the NZ government use common sense, not trust Australia’s stats and take a wait and see approach, for about a year?

    Seems to me we should.

    • Most definitely Xray. The Oz stats are highly suspect and probably politically manipulated. As we well know the level of corruption is Oz in systemically embedded including the Murdoch media and State Police.
      The puppet masters even had a govt sacked because they did not like the policies, and that corruption went right back to the so called “royal” family and city of London.

    • The Aussie numbers are pretty impressive considering they got off to a pretty wonky start. Crowded beaches, even a boat load of virus infected people and still extremely low spread. I find their success hard to believe but they’ve done plenty of testing and their rate of infection is below ours. Of course we count untested probables which is 25% of our total.
      Maybe we should congratulate them for an awesome job?

  4. Agree Martyn.

    Lets not waste the effort made so far. And begin a massive testing programme, and secure rest homes and aged care facilities more carefully.

    Hone Harawira and a whole bunch of Iwi members have led the operation of C19 checkpoints in Far North end of Te Tai Tokerau–they were abused at first but now appreciated by the majority of Northlanders. NZ First of course cannot help themselves trawling for residual racists, and is running an online poll–Do you support Iwi checkpoints YES/NO? and gathering respondents email addresses. NZ First do not help themselves in an election year that is for sure.

    • Right on TM
      The tests are not that reliable so retesting is a part of a testing program. Wuhan has provided volumes of guidelines on this.
      Hone has mana he has earned on a number of occasions. Full marks for his efforts.

  5. My immune system white blood cell markers are at the bottom of the scale so I am a sitting duck at 75.

    I was workplace chemically poisoned by (VOC’s) volitile organic chemicals in my (un-ventilated) workplace in 1992 and since diagnosed with blood cancer(lymphpenia) with chronically low T cell fighting white blood cell immunity.

    I was soldering on with self funded (immune support vitamins/minerals IV administration) to cope, but now am fearing if esposed to this changing Covid 19 virus capability in it’s changing environment, I will recieve a fatal end.

    Now my chronically low Lymphocite count will be unable to keep me from infections that will kill my ability to cope.

    Thank you for your very good atricle Martyn we apreciate the effort.

    • Cleengreen.
      You are one of many who are alone and rightfully fearful. Business NZ won’t give a fuck about those who are vulnerable.
      So you have nothing to loose and will have many with you as the thousands of vulnerable realise they have enormous power to confront the vulture capitalists pushing for “mowing of the lawns” to rid NZ of those opposing their money grubbing capitalist business as usual.

      Keep your spirits up and we all have nothing to loose in fighting for a better, kinder, more socially orientated sharing society.
      Which means a system change which won’t happen without a groundswell. You are a part of that important voice.
      Concentrate of the big picture because that is where the conversation needs to be and not wasted on just details which tend to divide us.

    • Yes SaveNZ; – this is correctly assumed by you.

      The immune system is weakened by chemical exposure as I was and has nmade me less able to fight virus’s now so any pollution exposure will weaken us and we will become overtaken by any virus. .

      • CG.
        Is ACC supporting your position.
        Older people have come in contact with years of exposure to various viruses and this seems to have made them more susceptible to the coronavirus uptake.

  7. Also obesity seems to be a factor for Covid-19. Could be bad news for NZ as we have high obesity rates here (1 on 3 adults obese) if it gets out of control in NZ.

    So far we are doing well. But not out of the woods yet.

    Plus the neoliberals are champing at the bit to get millions of tourists and temp residents into NZ ASAP and when that happens could reinfect NZ again as 43% are directly linked to being overseas.

    What is stopping reinfection is not Jacinda at all, (borders in NZ never closed) but the flights are hard to get!

    Guess what, the world’s middle class will flood into NZ for a place to ride out the pandemic as soon as they can get here and unlike the homeless and WINZ that have to pay back their accomodation debts, hotel accomodation is free to new residents into NZ, to have their first 14 day hotel stay, paid courtesy of the NZ tax payer!

  8. Air pollution could be thought of as ‘Herd Smoking’ ,,,leaving the herd with more lung problems and disorders,,,,

    I agree with Martyns post ,,,, First off, although our testing results are good by the percentage and numbers of infection,,, I’m still worried by the overall low level of testing and whether we may be missing some community spread ,,,,, We have tested Less than 1% of our population.

    Through the early and middle part of March I was sick with the ‘flu’ ,,, I was unable to get tested for CV-19 … although having several risk factors which raised the small probability that it could have been.

    I’ve been recovered from my ‘flu’ for a couple of weeks now ,,,, but I will be very keen to have the anti-body test when we get a reliable form of this in NZ

    While laid up and self quarantined I read up all the corona research I could find ,,, particularly concerning how long it took to ‘clear the virus’ and no longer be infectious to others ,,,,, I could find no definitive answers ,,,, and I suspect many of the CV-19 cases which ‘recovered’, only to become reinfected ,,, had never fully cleared the virus in the first instance.

    Anyway to aid in lifting the lock-down , we need a better testing regime in NZ.

    And although having No CV-19 at all in NZ is our eventual holy grail ,,,, Winning the first battle will not have us winning the war.
    We should be prepared for small clusters or individual cases to reappear ,,,, and have Trace Teams ready to jump all over them.

    The Chinese apparently sent 1800 five people teams into their virus epicenter,,, whose jobs were to Contact Trace all the people at risk from known infected patients .

    These health workers teams are like fire-fighters getting dropped into the ground zeros,, to put out the spot fires while small,,,,

    NZ will ramp up the health resources put into testing and Tracing for the post lock down phase ,,,

    There is world wide factors / failures restricting world wide and NZ testing numbers at the moment ,,, But we certainly have the human resources for fighting the virus in other ways ,,,,, mobilize them as best we can.

    And just as with our lock-down ,,,,, the testing can catch up later.

  9. Interesting what Hemi says above about a person being sick in December. I was taken ill on Christmas Eve. Throat like razer blades and was five weeks flat on my back with a chest so tight I was on multiple shots of ventolin for most of the time. It was the worst bout of respiratory illness I have ever experienced. I was so weak I could hardly get to the toilet and felt like death. I too have since wondered what this bug was I caught. It felt like I had been hit by a freight train and finally had to struggle to the doctor who put me on antibiotics as my chest had become bronchial big time. My peak flow was 140 which is exceedlingly low for a female. Mystery really for me. I was told it was just a bronchial infection. Yeh right. I know one of those and it sure wasn’t.

    • The first recorded case outside China in Thailand sometime around January/February was just the first recorded case. The death rate for corona is less than 2% so this virus was on the go, hitching rides around the world months before we were able to even diagnose the problem let alone come up with a workable test. Even in New Zealand we have unexplained positive tests and well it was probably floating around New Zealand before testing on inbound travelers begun. So these people would have had mild symptoms and just assumed it was a commen could or something which is why we have to be extremely aggressive in out testing regimes, much more agreesive than we are now.

      • Agreed Sam
        There is a complication in that the tests are not always reliable and how the swabs are taken appears to be a part of that.

  12. Pointless and dangerous “data” being released by the Ministry of Health today.

    18 confirmed cases is the smallest tally for three weeks strongly suggests we have passed the peak and the worst is over…..but its bullshit. We need accurate and relevant data so informed decisions can be made. They tell us we can now test 6000 people a day…but only tested 2000 yesterday, a drop of 50% on previous days. Yes, it’s Easter but taking a break from testing at this time is extremely unhelpful.

    Health professionals are still adamant they don’t have access to PPE gear. Dr Ashley Bloomfield once again just dismissed that at the PC today and again spouted off Ministry of Health guidelines as per usual. If health professionals are telling journalists this during a lockdown, it’s obviously a big issue.

    We are still having the bullshit over who to test. Bloomfield said today staff at aged care facilities will be tested for Covid-19 if they display symptoms. For fuck sake, when will our Ministry of Health wake the fuck up? There is so much at stake and they are still getting it badly wrong. Back in February, UK health experts were adamant that people with the virus but not showing symptoms were definitely passing the virus onto others. A recent study shows up to 78% of people with the virus don’t display symptoms. These people will be gifted a free pass to aged care facilities. This will guarantee even more deaths in these “care” homes.

    https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-bmj-study-suggests-78-dont-show-symptoms-heres-what-that-could-mean-135732

  13. A recent survey indicates 60% of people would support extending the lock-down for a further two weeks.

    ref: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/414069/most-new-zealanders-willing-to-extend-covid-19-lockdown-pain-survey

    I 100% agree.

    At the same time, more protective gear has to be made available for front line essential staff. I see no point in hoarding the stuff in case of an emergence. We’re IN an emergency. Right now. Here.

    And those self entitled pricks who flout the rules because they want to make the most of this impromptu holiday? I’m more than a little sick and tired of them getting away with warnings.

    ref: https://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/news/120970492/ambulance-stuck-in-sand-after-vehicle-rolls-at-foxton-beach?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    ref: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/04/coronavirus-boaties-ignoring-lockdown-orders-slammed-as-pirates.html

    If I exceed the speed limit, or my WoF expires, there ain’t no way that P.C. Jones will be letting me off with a warning. I’m issued a ticket on the spot.

    So why are those privileged idiots let off with a finger wag?!

    You can bet your grandmother’s knitting that if a poor brown boy tried it on, it won’t be “friendly advice” they’ll be getting.

    And while we’re about it, David “Mad Money” Seymour and Todd “Open For Business” McClay really need to STFU. This is people’s lives at stake.

  14. Important research done in the US about closing down business during the flu epidemic in 1918: RNZ Media Watch on Sunday referred to research that evaluated the results in different cities across the US. Where cities went into lockdown quickly and businesses went into remission, the businesses flourished when people recovered and lockdowns were lifted. In the cities where businesses continued, they came out of the period badly. A lesson for us?

    I’ll come back with later the reference when I find it

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