The debate within Government now is should we go back to work at the end of the 4 week lockdown.
The health math demands 6 weeks. Incubation time of the virus is 14 days, but there are cases where it has been 19 days and 27 days, so we went into lockdown on Wednesday 25th meaning the majority of infections will appear by April 8th in the second week of the 4 week lockdown, but we need to KNOW the damned virus has been completely eradicated, so that takes us out to April 21st for the last possible incubation date and we would need at least 2 weeks of no new infections to know the sacrifice had been worth it.
Unfortunately public health isn’t the deciding factor this close to an election, politics is starting to creep in and when Political Journalists are quoting ‘Cabinet Ministers’ bitching about the power of the Ministry of Health, you know that pressure is mounting.
‘Cabinet Minister’ is a euphemism for Shane Bloody Jones, whose NZ First Party will be hearing from all those secret Industry donors screaming at them about the economic pain.
Death Cult Capitalists, Matthew Hooton, Mike Hosking & Gareth Morgan are all crying out that 30 000 deaths is acceptable as long as neoliberalism can get back to work so the stress on Jacinda to lift the lockdown at the end of the 4 weeks is building, regardless of the above public health math.
The simple truth is that Jacinda must extend the 4 weeks to 6 weeks because if we come back at 4 weeks and the bloody thing keeps spreading, she will get blamed.
We can’t seriously shut down the nation and the economic damage that causes without being 100% sure the bloody virus has been smothered, because if we have to go back into lockdown because we came out of quarantine too soon, the initial sacrifice is wasted.
Are we really going to pay the economic cost of a 4 week lock down + the ongoing public health crisis + the political damage of blame by coming out too soon?
We have been incredibly fortunate to date that travel is still the main vector of contamination because we are only seeing linear growth, not exponential community transmission growth, but playing Russian Roulette with that luck now would be insane.
You know that if the virus re-ignites after Jacinda comes back at 4 weeks, she will get attacked for coming out too early by the very same voices who are demanding she do that now.
The one political protection available for Jacinda is that the appalling manner in which the UK and America have responded will see a mountain of dead at the time we will be extending the lockdown so while the Death Cult Capitalists and NZ First MPs start playing up, Jacinda can point at those mass deaths for political cover.
Let’s be clear, we won’t get back to normal until a vaccine is available and that’s 12 months away. Even after lockdown we will be living with level 3 restrictions with ongoing border closures, zero tourism and strict quarantining with mass testing alongside the economic whiplash of this plague.
To date we have been lucky, let’s not cash that in for economic well being that won’t exist until a vaccine is here.
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We can’t judge whether to extend until we know how well the lockdown has worked. That won’t happen until we have the results of two weeks greatly widened testing.
It may be clear that there is very little endemic infection ( which has not been tested for until very recently) and another two weeks will likely clean it up. Or it may be that wider community testing of cases with no connection to overseas travel will reveal that it is already widespread and the lockdown is pointless. At the moment it looks hopeful but no decision can be made on what is known so far.
D J S
Completely agree with David Stone. Ignore the right wing neoliberal crap (though it’s funny how there was little criticising the lockdown, then suddenly all the media outlets had very similar articles questioning it) for the moment. It’s all down to the maths and its too early to say how long the lockdown should continue for. Another week or so should give us a good idea as to how we are really doing.
“Or it may be that wider community testing of cases with no connection to overseas travel will reveal that it is already widespread and the lockdown is pointless.”
Given the above would not rule out lockdown but may modify how it is used tactically. The strain that appears to be in NZ may reduce the herd somewhat before immunity is widespread if left unchecked. The genome of variety/s in NZ is not yet published.
We do not know what we do not know so why are we not ramping up the testing of a cross section of the population. At the same time why not call out the army to do road blocks to catch those traveling to the Bach or boat and then name and shame.
The time for a severe talking to has now got the point of being sent to your room with no dessert.
Pudding. Not dessert. Plus meaningless sentence. Keep trying.
Mother would be horrified to think I would be common enough to call dessert “pudding “.
Au contraire, “dessert” is totally non-u, the socially correct word is “pudding.”
Google it -I can’t be bothered – you’ll just have to accept that the Queen and I know these things.
SW are you referring to colloquial Kiwi speak or changes that have crept in with TV.
Some houses now are said to have two bathrooms only one has no bath nor shower.
Trev – Here we are dear, I did it for you. Pudding v Dessert
“The final course of a dinner (and arguably the best one) is the pudding. Note, it is called the pudding, NOT ‘dessert’. If you call your lemon posset with spun sugar basket a dessert when dining with the hoity toity, then you might as well prepare for a future dining at a Toby Carvery – where you can help yourself to the dessert buffet for the rest of eternity. ”
See http://www.williamhanson.co.uk for more. The Bluffer’s Guide To Etiquette by William Hanson is available for Kindle and iPad at Amazon.co.uk and the iBookstore (RRP £4.99); or in print at http://www.bluffers.com and all good book shops (RRP £6.99)
I would not have thought Pudding and dessert were totally interchangeable . I think not all deserts are puddings and not all puddings are desserts.
D J S
Actually I agree with you David – but that makes us a couple of yobs.
Well I’m used to that.
That’s OK David, I won’t tell anybody. My lips are sealed.
Three now and probably many more
I stand corrected . Thank you for starting my day with a smile.
I am so over sanctimonious gits like Mike Hosking, Simon Bridges, Paul Goldsmith etc right now.
Their behaviour has helped me to decide to never, ever vote for a National Party politician ever again.
They deem themselves as having the answer and solution to EVERYTHING even COVID-19.
We can be well assured that if all this happened during a National government the prime minister would be denying there is a problem, refusing to accept there is a problem and when all comes public knowledge will blame everyone else but himself/herself. They will naturally copy-cat their beloved Donald Trump in those temper tantrum throwing events.
And I am sure if there was a National government when all this happened there would not be a peep from Hosking, Bridges or Goldsmith. They will say it’s something that happened during a previous Labour government and therefore it’s Labour’s fault this has happened.
There would be no taking responsibility or accountability and knowing National they would happily continue trading with China eg in tourists coming here unabated even now.
When there is a general election this year eg in November for example; I will not be voting for a National MP or prime minister. They do not merit being voted for because of their petty childishness disorders they have within them. They, National, are behaving with jealousy and it’s all become very tiresome indeed.
It’s a given.
We are about to enter the worst period of Covid-19 in New Zealand. Brace for multiple deaths.
Any suggestion of NZ being at the peal already was an epic and irresponsible example of our Ministry of Health going the early crow. In a few days time, any talk of the lockdown only lasting 4 weeks will be well and truly put to bed.
And you rather pessimistic view of this is because…?
We will have multiple deaths, but not from Covid-19. They’ll be from “stress-related issues” as people see all they’re worked for crumbling.
Ms Adern saying ‘must value lives over money” shows she hasn’t got a fucking clue. People need money to buy things they need and want. To pay for food, clothes and heating (especially during winter), to help keep their families fed and happy (a new toy can go a long way to settling a kid down, and a settled kid can go a long way to settling a parent down – an unhappy, scared and starving kid tends to have the opposite effect on parents – but Jacinda’s a mom so she knows all about being worried about how she’ll feed and warm the family over winter, NOT).
Go to the WHO and other agencies, look at the actual numbers of deaths this year and compare with last year and the year before. Covid-19 may be causing a higher demand for respirators,but last year people were dying in significant numbers because of a lack of something else.
Meanwhile, since Friday more people have died from starvation than the entire time of C19. Many more will die this year from each of HIV, diarrhoea, and other things.
Suicide, stroke and heart attacks? JA’s made sure there’ll be far more deaths from those in NZ than normal this year, and far more than C19 would’ve caused.
You can justify anything by pointing to something to else.
We elect leaders and governments to look after the welfare of the people (well, that’s the theory, anyway). The moment we prioritise “money to buy things they need and want” is the point where lives matter less than money.
There’s not much point in earning a tonne of money, KC, if a disease kills me fourteen days later. In fact, I doubt if most people would be willing to risk their loved ones for all the money in the Universe. I sure wouldn’t.
But I suspect what you’re saying is that you’re willing to take the risk that this bastard virus gets someone else’s family, and not yours, so the economy can keep ticking over.
What grandparent wouldn’t sacrifice themselves for their grandchildren? You are fucking clueless.
This doesn’t relate to much of what KC said does it Frank!
D J S
Nope, you clearly don’t read very well.
The virus is unlikely to kill anyone. It’s unlikely to even give most people more than mild symptoms (sources : WHO, most articles on the subject, reports from medical staff who’ve actually studied it). It does kill people (or at least they die of complications triggered by it), but in reality death from Covid-19 is quite rare. Thus far in NZ we’ve had 1. Thus far in Italy they’re still below their normal Influenza death rate, not sure on the UK’s figures but probably much the same.
As I’ve said elsewhere, thus far Labour’s actions have killed at least 2 people by suicide – wonderful people who saw their world crumbling and couldn’t cope with the expectation of the loss of their livelyhood and the suffering of those around them.
Money is not just about having stuff. It’s about putting food in your kids stomachs, heating the home the live in, and giving them reasonable clothes to wear (not branded and labelled stuff that costs a ton but is no better than a $5 Warehouse special, but a suitably quantity of clean clothing). Money is living in a dry home, not kids winding up in hospital with respiratory problems or dying early and/or slowly due to diseases that poor people suffer from.
When people cannot work all sorts of things start to go wrong, especially when it’s an employer’s market and there’s a large number of capable people looking for the same job. “You’re willing to work for minimum wage? Well I have applicants who say they’ll actually work for a little less, so what are you going to do to encourage me to employ you?” – though I have known many good bosses who wouldn’t even consider that.
Being unemployed and on a benefit means getting much less than minimum wage. People in our land struggle with 2 parents earning good money, how do you think they’ll manage with no parents able to earn? Every minute the heater is on costs money. Every time you need to wash the kids clothes, you need money. As the kids grow, they need new clothes – that costs money. Clean blankets and sheets – and sufficient of – that costs money. Keeping the house clean and dry and warm – all costs money.
And when you’re out of work, you don’t have money.
Covid-19 barely rates in the death stats. Actually look it up and see if you can prove me wrong – but you won’t be able to. In NZ Covid 19 may kill a few people, and even though they may be people who would soon die anyway that will still be painful for the families. Any death is. I know this quite well as I’m watching people I love deal with the loss of a family member due to this. I know what it is like to lose people, and even when that death is expected and you have time to prepare (can you ever?) it’s still deeply painful. Covid-19 may kill a few, and it may’ve killed a few hundred in the worst cases (sorry, look at the real numbers from places with it not the made up “model” numbers) – but there’s too much of a chance that many many more people will suffer and die as a result of Labour’s plans and the poverty they will bring to this land.
I’m not talking old people dying a few weeks or months earlier, in the same numbers as per normal as is the case in Italy (again, look at the numbers, Italy isn’t experiencing any more deaths than normal), I’m talking children and young people – people who should be fit and healthy – suffering and dying from diseases and illnesses that could’ve been prevented had we had a smarter government in place. They went with one plan, no other option, and half-way though the “minimum” 4 weeks still don’t know how to bring us out of it (although I expect Matron will soon tell us how naughty we’ve all been and those curfews she’s oft said she doesn’t want to see will come out, along with a longer lock down).
Oh, and her “4,000” number of cases? In reality we probably passed that (and then some!) weeks ago. Most people who get Covid-19 have few or no symptoms. Again, check the WHO stats and facts, don’t just take my word for it.
KC
The coronavirus does kill and if left to spread then significant numbers of people will die. The vulnerable folk including the aged, are at risk of covid19 causing a lung condition where they are starved of oxygen. Its real and thousands of cases have not survived treatment.
But that does not have any bearing on poverty in NZ at this stage. Poverty has got steadily worse in NZ since the mid 80s. We need more taxation of corporations and high earners to fund Health. Education. Benefits and job creation. This coalition Govt cannot do that overnight and there are powerful influences they have to fight with your help. Why knock Labour because National won’t give you what you are asking.
Road deaths including many innocent folk driving carefully, are not ignored and if we did not address this with speed limits, policing and education then there would be many more.
There is no room for ignoring health issues either.
We have people who get sick and die of influenza and that is with existing herd immunity. Without that herd immunity the toll would be a lot higher.
Covid19 if let go would kill many more and particularly the aged, immune compromised. those with chemotherapy or have had it, cancer victims, diabetics and many others. There are hundreds of thousands of Kiwis who are glad of the shut down and efforts to stem the covid19 spread.
Credit must be given for actions to get on top of the coronavirus contagion.
In China with stricter lockdowns it has taken 76 days before they have been eased, and that is with far better facilities than what we have. So tighten your belt for a rough ride.
KC,
The line between a pessimist and a realist can at times be fine, where as it is a canyon at other times. It is a canyon at this time in my opinion.
Do you understand that the UK has been two weeks behind Spain in the pandemic curve? Do you understand that Spain is approximately one week behind Italy?
It’s been widely accepted that NZ is approximately two to three weeks behind the UK.
The peak is not expected to arrive in the UK until the 14th April at the earliest but could be 14 days later. If the above numbers are even ball park accurate, how is it even remotely possible that NZ is at the peak now as Ministry of Health numbers and rhetoric are clearly indicating? There is a globally accepted pattern with Covid-19 but NZ is obliterating that pattern. At the exact time our numbers should be rising dramatically, they are actually gone down. That situation is exactly how the conclusion regarding peaks and curves are normally found. Time v the number of cases.
Do you accept that due to the time lag, there is a curve of between 14 to 21 days between actions taken during a pandemic and those actions showing up in the stats? The actions taken by NZ have at times been fast and very helpful. At other times they have been lamentable and farcical.
Do you believe what our Ministry of Health is telling you about accurate updated numbers at 1 pm daily? Do you believe they are jigging the numbers so they “appear” positive? Do you believe they are masking the reality? Do you believe there has been a high level of incompetent bungling and diabolical organizing during the pandemic by Government advisers? Why do you think the Ministry of Health is at pains every day to tell you how many people have recovered from the virus? Why do you think they are also at pains to mention the “clear link” to international travel with the confirmed cases? Why do you think it is taking them weeks to confirm all important community spread cases when it should take only 72 hours at most? The Ministry of Health want you to believe the % of community spread is 1 or 2 % when it is almost certainly at least 15%
It’s totally pointless and displaying a very high level of ignorance to blame Ardern for what’s unfolded with some of her “expert advisers”.
Number 1 epic blunder. Dr Ashley Bloomfield the director general of health in NZ adamantly instructed everyone that only those displaying symptoms of Covid-19 can spread the disease to others. This was a cornerstone of NZ’s defence and almost all of the decisions made were based on it. Imagine if they got that badly wrong. In late February, UK experts were adamantly stating that people with the virus but not displaying symptoms, (pre-symptomatic – asymptomatic) were indeed spreading the virus. I first quoted this on here myself in early March. Are you aware that up to 50% of people who have Covid-19 have no symptoms and are not even aware they have the virus but are spreading the disease to others? That situation highlights a shambolic situation in NZ.
Blunder 2. Self-isolation can be a very useful tool in the fight against Covid-19…but only if it’s enforced. A defence is only as strong as it’s weakest link. The Ministry of Health stated from the get go that there was NO enforcement of self-isolation, only an “expectation” it would be respected by people coming to NZ or returning home from overseas. What a fucking joke. It was a dangerously naive policy that was a huge part of our lamentable defence. It was akin to selling your car to a complete stranger and allowing that person to drive the vehicle away without paying anything, just an “expectation” they would return at some point later and pay you. Who does that in this day and age especially with so much at stake? We all knew it was total bullshit but they pressed on. What forced their hand was a piece on TV showing tourists laughing at the camera about self-isolation. They were humiliated into action but serious damage was done during this farcical arrangement.
Epic blunder 3) The line in the sand is clearly community spread. Once you confirm this, it’s a game changer. Despite that absolute fact, they have been refusing to test people with obvious Covid-19 symptoms for weeks due to no known link to international travel. What a farce!. Even if these people managed to get tested, the labs have been refusing to test their samples. This changed with new instruction late last week but enormous damage has obviously occurred during this burying your head in the sand action. With the known time lag in place, we won’t see the ramifications for this epic blunder for another 14 days at least.
Blunder 4) There has been great uncertainty about the number of testing kits available. Doctors have been requesting 30 kits but only being given 5 to preserve stocks. This situation is changing now, but anyone who thinks there won’t be ramifications for this is living in a parallel universe.
Blunder 5) Weekend testing. We are being sold the Brooklyn Bridge on this one. Ever wondered why? The Ministry of Health admitted there is less testing on the weekend. They bullshitted NZ when they said this was due to less people being out and about on weekends. Really? TOTAL HORSESHIT. I run every day. There has been even more people out and about on the Weekend than during the week in my part of Auckland. Friends and family confirm this is repeated around NZ. Every day is the same as the previous and next day when you’re in lockdown. If you’re trying to tell people we may be at the peak in NZ right now, you need to be testing at every opportunity, every day. The Ministry of Health are now jigging the figures tested so you only get a weekly average unless they are extra proud of the testing numbers on a certain day. In that event, they will give those numbers. They are very clearly attempting to control the narrative regarding weekend testing and the weekly average bullshit is how they are doing so. I can tell you there are many people within this setup who are critical of DHB organizing. Most of the health professionals now being used at testing stations etc are nurses from other areas of our health system. Those nurses normally only work Monday to Friday.
If you go back in time a few weeks you will see subtle changes in wording coming out of the Ministry of Health. “We can avoid an outbreak in NZ”…evolved to “we can manage an outbreak in NZ”. I was calling bullshit on claims by the experts that our hospitals have everything at hand from the moment I first heard this. One of our first confirmed cases resulted in 53 health professionals going into self isolation due to this one patient. We were told there was no consequence to this felt at the hospital. That’s light years from what I was informed. Do you recall the nurses strike last year? A huge part of the strike involved working in unsafe conditions regarding Nurse-Patient ratios yet now we are told you can remove 53 front line health professions and that loss not be felt? Yes, the other one plays jingle bells.
I would love to believe we are at the peak of Covid-19 in NZ and only 1 person will die from the disease here. Due to the factors I’ve explained and others, the reality will be light years from this. We are weeks away from the peak. NZ will lose dozens of people to Covid-19, if not more.
Good points. I seriously hope you are wrong and I am still optimistic that we’ve got community spread more under control than you think… but without more testing how do we know? I doubt that the Ministry is tweaking the numbers because that will surely come back and tear them a new one if they are and I doubt they’re that dumb… mind you there’s always David Clark to remind you not to be overconfident in the smarts of our leaders.
KC
“Ms Adern saying ‘must value lives over money” shows she hasn’t got a fucking clue.”
I think you may have taken the value of lives over money comment the wrong way.
Of course most people need money but lives have a value above money.
The lack of widespread testing outside known travel means we have no idea of where we are at at this stage.
“Most cases are linked to travel” as the health mandarins endlessly repeat-because we haven’t been checking anyone not linked to travel, now you are allowed to, but there aren’t enough kits.
I’m assuming we will be 6 weeks plus but its going to get irritating for many.
At some point they are going to need to relax the nanny state no fishing tramping hunting surfing rules which are lower risk than biking or horse riding which are still fine apparently, healthy solo outdoor activity with no or short travel should be encouraged for mental health. Too much finger wagging bullshit , let people isolate in their happy place it’s why we choose to live here.
Yes six weeks sounds fair.
But; please keep Mike Hoskings locked up for six years also.
Agree.
Won’t happen Martyn
“we won’t get back to normal until a vaccine is available”
There is no guarantee that a vaccine will be developed. We should be testing everyone who comes into the country
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/we-could-be-vastly-overestimating-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-heres-why/
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239497-why-we-still-dont-know-what-the-death-rate-is-for-covid-19/
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ
Speaking as someone who is high risk in this particular epidemic, I still say, we need to soldier on at a fluctuating level 3, and allow a controlled spread of this disease, either that..or miraculously stay in lock down for the next year or so till a reliable and credible vaccine is invented and able to be widely distributed. Given that up until last month, our government claimed to not have the money to provide decent welfare (health, housing, free higher education, adequate pensions for the poor etc etc), I very much doubt we can afford to extend lock down for much longer without dire consequences that may well be worse than this new strain of flu.
(If nothing else, think of the poor landlords..)..ha.
I notice the Chief Medical Officer in Scotland resigned after being caught going to her second home which was against their rules. Clark still hides away in Dunedin and has not apoligise to the Nation of people following the rules.
The virus cannot be “eradicated” until either around 2/3rds of the population have had it (herd immunity that reduces R0 to below 1.0) or a vaccine is created (about 18 months from now). That is simply how the very established mathematics of viral outbreaks pans out. You never get the “last one” that has it (especially not if you ever want to reopen the borders both for tourists and NZers going abroad).
And now it turns out cats can get Corona Virus (potentially from humans). Whether they can spread it is still unknown, but if so, you can forget “containing the virus” – think of feral cats for example coming into contact with your pet cat.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cats-can-get-coronavirus-study-suggests-but-pet-owners-need-not-panic/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/cats-can-infect-each-other-with-coronavirus-chinese-study-finds
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