As TDB has been pointing out for some time, the Greens are in trouble.
They have rarely managed to gain over their disastrous 2017 Poll result of 6.3% and the latest Newshub poll has them falling to a mere 5.6%!
Why are the Greens, when climate change is the only issue, now dropping below their disastrous 2017 result?
The alienating pure temple middle class identity politics that has infiltrated progressive politics and totally infects the Greens now finds traitors, it doesn’t try and find recruits.
The saviour of the Greens in the past has been the international votes, but with Jacinda’s power Internationally, I suspect the vast majority of that support will go to Labour, it won’t go to the Greens so the possibility of the Greens – who OVER poll every election – will be under the threshold is a real possibility.
This has been a issue TDB has warned of for some time, there is no glee in seeing that warning become a real possibility.
As a green voter all my life I say this to the incompetent leadership – Get off the bloody twitter, stop thinking 500 retweets means anything other than you are alienating voters and get back to Climate change and the cannabis referendum!!!
FFS.
Remember, all National has to do is get higher than Labour and knock the Greens under 5% and the MMP math does the rest.
It’s time Labour got over their arrogance and started thinking about cutting electorate deals.
As the MP who formed the first political party under MMP -Right of Centre (RoC) – I say again: Labour needs to gift Greens and electorate seat.
National understand – if not accept, that without a RUNNING MATE, there is remote change only of being government.
Labour, still miss the point.
That RoC (so named for its economic philosophy and which stacked with producer board executives and ex fed farmers president) and later re-named CONSERVATIVES, failed, is not the issue here.
After all, at the time RoC was way ahead of the political understanding of the public- and also ahead of Jim Bolger’s ability to accept that a renegade MP in his own tent – albeit I was Under Secretary Agriculture, had the political acumen to understand that MMP meant – “RUNNING MATES’.
Try this link to help explain why MMP means Labour needs a running mate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_Conservative_Party
“It’s time Labour got over their arrogance and started thinking about cutting electorate deals.”
Well said Martyn.
Remember it is only NZ First that holds the banner for the over 56 yrs old mainsteam not greens or labour so NZ First is always safe during elections.
By the election there will be perhaps 762 000 more retirees entering retireement status according to Stats NZ and a majority will choose to vote for NZ First; – as their policies are streamlined to retirees whom most are still wating since 2014 for their incease in income suppport as other sections of ouur comunity have been given so far by this Government and the former Government.
Not all retirees are rich as most seem to think wrongly.
Winston knows this fact fully as his voting block let’s him know thiis constantly that retirees are way down the liist of the rich.
…” By the election there will be perhaps 762 000 more retirees entering retirement status according to Stats NZ ” …
Wow ! – that’s a fair swag !!! And ones who usually vote .
760000 more retirees by the election…. and you guys actually give this a flicker of credence?
IMHO Winston has shot himself in the foot.
UK pensioners are a large voting block here in NZ and he and Jacinda have failed them. Thus I believe NZFirst votes will be hit hardest as they rely on pensioner votes more than Labour.
You may recall National and successive Governments have been told at different courts around the world that ‘taking’ the UK pension away from UK retirees is illegal and also by the way immoral.
When John Key lost a legal battle Jacinda and Winston rightly gave him grief in Parliament; it is on YouTube. The inference being they would put this wrong right when next in power.
But now they’re in power they’ve gone ‘all quiet about it’.
Basically the UK pension is similar to KiwiSaver in that we HAVE to pay into it and some of us pay voluntarily whilst we were outside the UK, to increase the pension due; i.e. it is contributions based.
NZ ‘red tape’ claims the UK pension is NOT contributory hence they ‘steal it’, unlike with any other country.
So put simply I reckon this will hit NZFirst hardest and unless Jacinda does a deal, with both NZFirst and the Greens (which she should do any way, as there’s no reason why Natz should be the only ones using the full set of rules, no matter how immoral it is to do so), NZFirst could be ‘gone burger’ and IMHO they’d deserve to be and have only themselves to blame.
Strange strategy by Jacinda and especially Winston.
Sadly the current Greens big on ‘identity triggers’ to give the woke an organism, but low on experience, green credentials or even much interest in the environment, (social policy is the new green apparently) with their inability to relate to the majority of people living in NZ who they seem to blame for being white, male a boomer, a homeowner, a landlord, employed… not sure if I missed anybody out who has been insulted in the past few years.
By the time you rule all those people out in NZ, you probably only have 5% the they have to fight tooth and nail against everybody else, (Labour, Maori party, TOP, Mana) as their most shouted out public polices are now pretty much the same as everyone else especially Labour and there policy is quite close to the Natz so clearly pretty alienating to the environment.
(Note to Greens, non whites aka many recent migrants and offshore investors from Singapore, Hong Kong and China are big land owners and landlords now in NZ (to add to the Australian corporates) and Maori own 15% of the NZ economy including land, so maybe some fact checking could be good when the Greens do a feel good identity slander against stale males or ‘whites’ to be relevant in relation to property and land ownership, their shout out for the 1% (Natz mostly with glee) cheering them and MSM rushing it into headlines pronto.
Remember the saying ‘if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say it at all?”, could be something for the Greens to think about, also that thingy, the environment (which is surprisingly not solely made up of carbon, there is a whole world out there of flora and fauna that humans need and enjoy… ).
Anyway, in spite of not liking the current Greens crowd, I’ll still probably vote for them while holding my nose to keep the Natz out and I think it’s gonna be very very close in terms of votes.
Otherwise the Natz may get back in to continue their Trump like destruction of the environment https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/climate/trump-environment-water.html aka Judith Colins style (what swamp kauri, Oravida) and fill more MP and Mayoral seats with “2 Chinese is more valuable than 2 Indians” international donations and free trips of China, out to pillage the country.
This is a very good result – Labour and Green totals over National and ACT. Thus the plan of National to take out NZF results in a more left wing government.
Those in the centre who do not like that will push towards NZF to stop it. And National have ruled them out, so NZF coming back into the mix just returns the current government.
Sure Greens going under 5% might be a risk, and if so some (some centre-left, some centrist) will switch to them to make sure that does not happen.
The real issue of this poll is that TOP and the Tava Party are irrelevant already.
I had thought that Jacinda and at least some others among the Labour Party had recognised that we are in an emergency situation, the Climate Emergency. An emergency situation requires more than party politics, more than talk about “doing deals” or not “doing deals”. It is no longer a question of “deals” but of people working together, even just to survive.
Instead of talking petty politics, eg about “deals” and such, they need to be saying loudly and clearly, “Yes! We will work with you after the election, regardless of results”. That is what they need to open and honest about, not some pathetic “deal/ no deal” political jargon.
Labour don’t seem to understand just how arrogant and how alienating their pious statement about “not doing deals” sounds, out here in the real world. In any Labour/ Green alliance, Labour are the older sibling, as it were. As the more influential of the two, they should be looking out for the younger/ weaker one. They need to be ready to extend a protective arm at all times, and should be doing so.
Instead, they turn away from the Greens and just cut them loose? “We’re not doing deals” at this time, sounds like political grandstanding and is not what we need to hear right now.
The Greens would rather get the 5%, than get given a seat and have their vote drop to 3-4% – which means fewer MP’s and less capacity on Select Committees etc.
SPC, They would not have to lose any of their own votes if they clarified what they were doing, to the voters. It is not about being “given a seat”. It is about teamwork, it is about two different parties being prepared to align for the greater benefit of all, as the end result will mean that together they can pass the necessary laws.
If they really believe that we are living in a time of a Climate Emergency (and I do), then different rules are called for – Emergency rules!! We have to change so many things – the way that we do them. And that includes losing whatever hangup or reserve they have about working together from the outset, from now, and making no secret of that.
It all depends on how many vote Greens so that they get over 5%, the loss of those votes if they get given an electorate seat would reduce their number of seats.
Why would they lose votes? (Genuine question.)
It’s my opinion that playing “fair and nice” is the only way Jacinda knows and is prepared to play the game. Unfortunately, what’s needed in 2020 is playing smart. I strongly believe this election will be like no other. The entitled Nats are absolutely desperate to get back into power. As a result, they will be playing dirty like never before and that’s really saying something when you consider their history. Gross misrepresentations, epic scaremongering and straight out bare faced lies will be served up like never before. Jacinda can take that to the bank so playing “fair and nice” will result in her getting mauled like an injured lamb by a pack of hyenas. It will be pitiful to watch. By October, it will be too late for her to wish she’d played smart instead of fair and nice. Please Jacinda, on behalf of my children and grandchildren, wakey-wakey. National almost fucked NZ and many within it during their diabolical 9 years, especially those that didn’t have first class tickets. Don’t let them finish the job.
Do deals and get the job done.
You need to get real and wake up like a kid does about Santa Clause.
Guess WHAT. Only white people have been told to “be nice”.
Yep. This Ethos doesn’t wash with ANYONE else, including the tide of migrants that will soon outnumber us.
And, just like Santa, Jacinda isn’t real. She already gave herself away -her true allegiance is with migrants.
She’s a Commie subverter and been groomed as such.
Cassie,
Jacinda is the leader so she leads. There are numerous “non whites” under her leadership who were instructed to “play nice” over the Jamie Lee Ross debacle that should have been used to bury National. Exactly the same applied over the obscene and diabolical accusations that she herself had covered up sexual abuse.
“Lawyer Simon Mitchell issued a statement via his legal team to RNZ today, doubling-down on the Labour Party position that the complainants never raised allegations of sexual assault.
Mr Mitchell, along with Honey Heemi and Tracey McLellan, was tasked with investigating seven formal complaints to Labour about the behaviour of a male staffer.
The party’s handling of the complaints came under intense scrutiny last week after The Spinoff reported that a 19-year-old volunteer, which it called “Sarah”, had told the panel the staffer attacked her – and yet no action was taken.
But in a statement, Mr Mitchell told RNZ the woman said no such thing when she addressed the panel on 9 March.
“She read from a document when taking us through her concerns. She did not provide us with a copy of that document,” he said.
“At no point did she say that she had been sexually assaulted or tell us about the events that are described in the Spinoff article.”
The Spinoff reported that those pre-interview notes – which were emailed to Labour assistant general secretary Dianna Lacy and printed off – contained a clear account of a sexual assault.
But Mr Mitchell said he had since seen a copy of the document sent to Ms Lacy and confirmed it contained none of those details. Mr Mitchell said he had since had his computer system “forensically examined” which confirmed his account of events”
The above should have been used to highlight the setup farce from the alleged victim being steered of course by the vile Paula Bennett, Instead, Ardern instructed Mr Mitchel to hush.
“Speaking at her post-cabinet press conference today, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared to rebuke Mr Mitchell for his statement.
“My view is that continuing to contest this in the public domain serves no one, not least the complainants,” she told reporters.
Ms Ardern said she expected Labour officials, from now, to “fully reinforce” a process focused on the alleged victims.
“This now needs to be dealt with via the QC process to allow the complainants to be heard.”
Even when the QC process was completed, Ardern played nice and said fuck all. She should have highlighted what a damaging farce and a set up it had been and demanded the resignations of Bennett and Bridges which is exactly what they had appallingly demanded of her during the “process”. Ardern would rather the Labour Party President Nigel Haworth resigned to take heat from the farce rather than fight fire with fire and highlight obvious skulduggery being at foot. Once again, Ardern was left looking like an injured lamb surrounded by hungry wolves. The prospect of fighting hard was all too much for her. Very worrying when you are going up against the Latrine Rodent Party who bought “DIRTY POLITICS” into the NZ vernacular and are now absolutely desperate to get back into power. Bridges and Bennett will steer the election campaign straight into their very familiar home base. “The Sewer”
We also witnessed Ardern put a muzzle on Shane Jones when he had the audacity to speak about arranged Indian marriages on behalf of so many of us. The Indians farcically bleated about racism from the Government in it’s attempts to protect our borders and then threatened consequences. Ardern played nice and caved in to the threats and obviously instructed Jones to STFU.
National opened the immigration floodgates to China so it would appear on paper that NZ had a rock star economy. In doing so they became National’s lap dog. Now the Chinese have very deliberately worked their way into a powerful controlling position with NZ. Ardern is the last person who will put a stop to that so the status quo just worsens. She is an empathetic woman who wants disadvantaged people to enjoy the NZ way of life she was afforded which is fair enough. The Greens would have a shipload of refugees arrive every week if they had their way regardless of a housing crisis etc. Ardern is attempting to keep everyone happy and find a balance. Commie subverter my arse. NZ needs to be protected and the immigration floodgates closed. Unfortunately, we are now at least 5 years too late. The horse has bolted. Remarkably, even what constitutes being a kiwi has now changed.
As for the Greens.
They are limp noodle. James Shaw is nice but weak. Not a good combination for a Party Leader. Their main problem however is GOLRIZ GHAHRAMAN who is the biggest liability in any NZ Political Party at this time. She would happily shit right on top of the Government she’s part of if it meant she could get a shipload of alleged innocent terrorists NZ residency. She’s worthy of contempt only and is very obviously dancing to her own tune. .
Their main problem however is GOLRIZ GHAHRAMAN
Well, I disagree with you about Golriz. I’m glad that she’s there and I think she has a valid role in our present govt (and I hope she’s there in the future).
As spy satellites are being launched from here in AO/NZ (not that far from where I live), she was the sole voice raised to question this. And, to me it is a major issue, which should at least be thought about and discussed widely in NZ before going further down that lane.
Here’s a link to the relevant article: Stuff 22nd Jan 2020 Greens Concerned about Launch for US Spy Agency
And an excerpt from there:
“The Green Party has a longstanding opposition to mass surveillance conducted in international contexts that fall outside of the rule of law,” Ghahraman said.
“We are concerned in this instance, that surveillance and information sharing comes in the context of the American president expressing an intention to launch attacks against Iran, including cultural and civilian targets that would constitute war crimes.”
“New Zealand should instead do all it can to de-escalate conflict by all parties.”
It’s not enough to have simpathetic politicians inside parliament pushing for legislative change because elites can just flood change with cash and that kills revolutionary change. So you have to have simpathetic onlookers looking in, the activist, the poor, the disenfranchised, the whites, the Browns, the working class, both TPPA movement, Sole movement, the unions and Extenction rebellion are all going to have to camp outside parliament straight after the election and force a simpathetic government to act on climate, to act on welfare, to restore worker rights and benefits and so on and so on. That’s the only way to block the liberal elites.
The government has said that anything going up via the local rockets meets their conditions – the thing for GG and the Greens to work out does this allow for spy satellites (it might, we are already involved in spying via two bases here), and if it does does it exclude capability to support targeting for military action purposes.
How would we (NZ) even know for sure if the satellites being launched were solely for surveillance, or whether they allow for drone warfare from afar?
All I know is that they have rules for what they allow to be launched here and the company has said it would abide by those rules – so the question is how the company knows …
The Greens Security Service Policy states:
1. A select committee enquiry should consider whether the SIS should be abolished and its powers given to the Police.
2. The GCSB should be abolished.
3. The signals intelligence bases at Waihopai and Tangimoana should be closed.
You can read the whole thing here: https://www.greens.org.nz/security_services_policy
Privacy is very important for any democracy. No matter who you are, a criminal, a sex offender, a politician with a past, normal, what ever, every one has equal access to democracy and privacy is its gatekeeper. This doesn’t mean that our privacy should be taken away its that our privacy should be protected from foreign influences. This is why it is an operational transgression of the highest order to give demotic ally focussed organisation the New Zealand Police state spy powers.
It seems The Greens are very explicit on this topic. Which is why they’ll be considered a second tier coalition partner until the situation changes in favour of being green,
No one is going to organise against some satakite. Got to get the economics done correctly and then you can worry about tacticool stuff.
Extinction rebellion are all going to have to camp outside parliament straight after the election
Well if the Nats were to get in, camping or similar protests would probably mean armed police squads turning up real quick, with arrests and prison sentences for some.
No, no, no. The tool of revolutionary change is the sympathetic activist AND sympathetic politician.
You need both.
You need both.
Then they need to act now, before the elections. And you’re right, they do need to get out there and start ‘doing stuff’ – Wake people up, make themselves known, show what they stand for!
With such a variety and with so many people in each movement I don’t think it’s possible to not know. Everyone will know at least one person standing up for justice.
Labour and Greens between them polled more than National’s Nick Smith in Nelson in 2017. We all wanted Nick Smith gone but didn’t know who to vote for as both Labour and Greens told us they were polling better. An ideal seat to “do an Epsom”
An ideal seat to “do an Epsom”
Sounds like a Plan! End result, many more happy people.
There would be others, similar, too.
The Greens could do with a few years of reflection out in the cold, to refocus and get back to basics.
A superior question is..
How deep will we sink?
??
Who will and can stop “progress” like this?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/25/race-for-seabed-threat-to-oceans
Labour, National, Greens? …. in their present shape and parliamentary set-up? Or anyone else participating in this election?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuEXmFQEJpw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7q6IA4zoAw
The Next Frontier in Mining: Deep Sea Exploitation in the Pacific
May the queen survive or not. Without disruption of the status quo not much will change.
Climate Resilience. System Change. Transformational. Now.
Prediction: If Labour doesn’t help out the Greens, that party will fold: Assumption: Labour will therefore gift a seat to the Greens. Reality: Labour has no intention of helping out the Greens.
MMP is the wrong voting system, which has a natural tendancy to revert to a two party system (Labour and National), It is true that this may cost Labour the next election but its going to be a good election to lose anyhow but in the long term we are left with a two party system WHICH THEY COVET.
If you dont believe it try pushing for a SST syste, which is the right system, and see them squeal.
MMP, done right, is a good system. But, we aren’t doing it right. The Royal Commission recommendations were never implemented because (as you rightly say) the main two parties prefer it how it is, weighted in their favour.
* Drop the coat-tails
* Lower the threshold to 4%
* Get rid of wasted votes – this is an iniquity – to allow choice of preferences for votes for parties under the threshold
* Use STV for electorate votes instead of FPP
* Require a party to get at least 0.8% party vote for an electorate seat to be mandated. (To prevent the Peter Dunne free vote for National scenario)
National were happy with MMP….right up until the time they needed NZF to get back into power. Instead of changing the voting system, National should learn to be less arrogant and not attempt to destroy rivals they may likely need as a coalition partner when the election is over.
Overall, MMP is working ok. Every systems has it’s failings. MMP is no different.
You’re OK with your vote for a party that doesn’t meet the threshold being redistributed to parties you didn’t vote for?
To me that is plain wrong and couldn’t be more undemocratic.
Further to that, in the 2014 election the combo of Nat/ACT/Maori/UF got 49.27% of the party votes at the ballot – that’s less than 50%. By the time the MMP math had done its thing that translated into 64 of 121 seats or 52.9%. MMP was supposed end a minority of votes cast turning into a majority of seats in the house that we’d put up with a few times under FPP.
With elections so close in NZ it’s critical that the system is fair and properly reflects voters’ intentions.
Which is also why the coat-tails has to go – when the correct electorate vote for Labour voters in Epsom is the National candidate you’ve got a fucked up voting system.
Geez.
After giving my party vote to the Greens to prop them up and my electorate vote to Jacinda,… when do I ever get to vote for NZ First,… my preferred party FF’S?
I guess I’ll have to do the same this election as well.
I’ll use the bush telegraph to my son to follow suit. His mother will be happy. As will I. But hell… when do I get to vote NZ First , dammit?!!?
Anyways,… keeping the tapeworms which are ACT and National out of power is priority. That is our concern and consideration. It is paramount. Do that?,… and the rest is easy. We do not pay our politicians to lie to us. We pay them well and we pay them to execute OUR WILL.
Not theirs.
Always remember that.
And that includes THIS govt.
They shit , fart and poop just like you and I.
Never,… NEVER let yourself think they are above us.
Your quality of life is DIRECTLY tied in with THEIR policy’s.
Always remember that as well.
Instead of all the trivial stuff, the Greens might consider focusing their attention on the life-threatening matter of planetary meltdown:
Daily CO2
Feb. 10, 2020: 416.08 ppm
Feb. 10, 2019: 411.97 ppm
And resource depletion and the ‘death (murder) of nature’, of course.
Check out the Outdoors Party: real people seeking real but responsible change to promote clean air and water, health soil and food, community and environmental wellbeing, organic and regenerative agriculture and a return to democracy and people power
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