TV3 Poll: National 43.9%, Labour 41.6%, Green 6.3%, NZ First 4%, ACT 1.4%

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Labour’s popularity has fallen in the latest Newshub Reid Research poll

It’s sitting at 41.6 per cent, down 9.2 per cent in the latest poll. National’s support rose to 43.9, up 6.5 per cent, but still not enough to govern alone.

This puts the focus on the Greens, whose polling has held firm at 6.3 per cent. NZ First is sitting at 4 per cent, which would see it fall out of Parliament.

ACT is at 1.4 per cent, which would also see it out of Parliament if David Seymour failed to win Epsom.

This has changed from the last Newshub Reid Reserch Poll in June, which showed support for Simon Bridges and National plunge to dangerous levels. 

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That poll saw Labour’s support rocket up to 50.8 per cent, while National dropped to 37.4 per cent. The Greens were on 6.2 per cent, and NZ First were on 2.8, enough to see them fall out of Parliament. 

No one should be shocked or surprised by this sudden drop in Labour support and Jacinda’s personal preferred PM numbers. This Poll was taken at the height of major media pundits and journalists falsely accusing Jacinda of knowing about and covering up a sexual assault as spelt out in grim detail by The Spinoff.

It is surprising that Labour and Jacinda didn’t stumble much further because of that character assassination.

You will note no one is claiming Jacinda covered up and hid a sexual assault now are they?

I mean, if you honestly believed the PM covered up and hid a sexual assault then your Journalistic integrity MUST be to keep demanding her resignation every day of the week, anything less is cowardice or hysterical headlines generated by a clickbait media feeding frenzy with all the eye rolling melodrama of a sadfishing mummy blogger.

I digress.

This Poll is a knee-jerk from the Spinoff article, but it does throw up some interesting insights.

ACT are now 2 seats under MMP coat tailing and that is because of ACT’s focus on free speech which is picking off more ideological National young males.

NZ First have bounced back into contention for a 5+ result.

Greens only benefited by .1% off a 9.2% Labour drop which should terrify the Greens and who are doing nothing to yet prove they will be able to get over 5% on election day. This result is still lower than their actual 2017 election result.

Even at the height of accusing Jacinda of covering up a sexual assault, only 2.5% more liked Simon Bridges. When you can’t win any more favour off the person being accused of covering up a sex crime, you really do need to ask some serious questions.

I think the Spinoff accusation knee jerk will swing back but if ACT can keep pushing the Free Speech issue and gain more MPs off the coat tailing, National suddenly have a pathway back to power, especially if the Māori Party can win Te Tai Hauāuru.

This impacts NZ First who become just one kingmaker amongst several.

 

49 COMMENTS

  1. I can’t believe Winston First and the Greens continue to poll above 5%.
    Labour should be pretty happy with this poll because their performance thus far doesn’t warrant it.
    If Adern walked away they would sink under 40% pretty bloody quick.

  2. The Ardern covering up sex accusation, is straight from the Richard Nixon book of dirty campaign tricks. I think that a Nat clinger, identified as helping paying candidates to get selected and get into Parliament, might have gone to the US for training. It’s a simple tactic – smear the opposition, and mud sticks. This one might have been more efficacious if they’d chosen someone with a slightly different image from Bennett’s – but I can’t think of anyone actually – well not in the National Party.

    If they’re going dirtier, they’ll target eg groups likely to support a specific politician, identify the group characteristics, and then tailor their dirt accordingly. Fortunately NZ political parties don’t have access to the huge sums of money US politicians have – as far as we know.

    If, as is highly possible, the Spinoff stuff triggers legal actions, it may temper media behaviour, and hopefully knowledge of successful legal action will be reported – no-one needs the details, but the fact that all actions have consequences needs to be shown.

    Chopping neighbours’ trees down, or stealing their letterboxes or cats, would make a change – that could wham nice old NZ First supporters.

    • Those are the High Priests of Mammon. They have zero genuine loyalty to the National Party. They’re basically mercenaries who will cast their lot with whoever best serves their lust for ever greater amounts of money. And no regulations. And no capitals gains tax. And more golf courses. And no high-density housing in our street, thank you very much.

        • I don’t think she’s that kind of person. I mean, if she genuinely lusted after power she likely wouldn’t have been so reluctant to take on the leadership. God knows it’s a thankless task. And the thing about being part of a coalition government is that you’re essentially compelled to work together as part of a larger whole, and that means the occasional compromise and resigning yourself to the knowledge that you’re not going to have everything your own way every time. Am I happy that Jacinda decided to forego a CGT? No, I’m gutted. But I understand why she made that decision and the possible consequences of making an altogether different one. Winston is a wily old goat, and he could make things very awkward, very quickly, and give the Opposition a gift that keeps on giving all the way to a National Party victory in 2020. Frankly, that doesn’t bear thinking about.

          I’m prepared to swallow the odd dead rat every once in a while if it keeps the vandals and brigands of the National Party out of power.

          • The concern is that if National once again regains power we will have a dictatorship. Anyone seriously thinking National were a coalition government with ACT, Maori, United Future are deluded.
            At least now we have a democratic process

        • Labour didnt campaign on a CGT in 2017, they campaigned on setting up a tax working group to look at that and other measures. They did what they said they would do.

          • The tax working group was also supposed to investigate a financial transaction tax, but was full of industry insiders on the group. Massive fail not to look into why in NZ our banks are the most profitable in the world and are a big reason why profits are NZ second biggest export.

            Yep, that’s right, our exports are not goods and services it’s banana republic stuff, with profits being exported, and it being tax negative!

            When the tax working group came up with a capital gains tax that relied on taxable income bracket another deliberate fail. Capital taxes would only work in NZ with so many people not paying income tax, that it would need to be separate from income tax!

            So the fats cats, money launderers, criminals paying zero taxes here, would pay nothing, yet again if they had implemented it!

            We are so dumb in NZ we have so many scandals but our government does nothing. Just this the other day.

            $4m penalty for Auckland money shop under anti-money laundering laws

            https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12276327

            This shady operation not only had 10 of 19 staff members as “volunteers” and that those volunteers didn’t have clearance from Immigration New Zealand to work but their compliance officer didn’t have permission to work in New Zealand either!

            The company has closed down, so no doubt the government will even see any of the money, who knows what happened to the staff and yet again millions of dollars has been laundered through NZ in plain sight.

        • I think if you lined Jacinda or Simon up and asked the question of who wants “Power” the answer will be clear.

  3. And there always will be. That’s why they have held the treasury benches significantly more than the left has.

    • Since the mid 1930s from the time of the 1st Labour government, there have 6 Labour led governments and 5 National led governments.

    • Too true Bert. But you know, despite a pretty solid election campaign being run on their behalf by the MSM, that’s a disappointing result for Chinational.
      The party needs to evolve, but the cabal that control it won’t ever let that happen.
      After the Luxon ‘parachute-in’, there will be growing numbers of disillusioned Nats wondering what, if any, political career prospects they really have sailing with a boatload of corrupt dinosaurs.

    • Yep. At a time when so many leaders and ordinary people around the world are according our PM a great deal of respect, including for her qualities of leadership during a time of various global pressures, … our local tiny-minded media mouths spin their webs of stupidity and greed. Aagh!

  4. Keep rubber-stamping yens of thousands of additional Transnational Capital Party voteers, Wge Slave Labour Party… just like Clark and Cullen did…

  5. National need friends desperately perhaps that is why soimon hasn’t come in and put the boot into Winstone parties issues yet !

    • Kia Ora Michelle. True. Simon would cling on to any ship in a storm, no matter what. And somehow if there was something in it for him, I’m inclined to think Winston would too.
      Speaking of Simon and his gobby sidekick deputy Fanny Whistlebritches, I haven’t heard as much as a peep out of them re Luxon’s plans of standing in Botany for Natz! Or have I missed something there? Seems a bit quiet on that front doesn’t it?

  6. National need friends desperately perhaps that is why soimon hasn’t come in and put the boot into Winstone parties issues yet !

  7. Labours real problems are their failure to get their own “free to air” (TV7) style “Public affairs” media platform TV channel operating as they promised.

    Without their own social/environmental/climate change public affairs views clearly stated on a commercial free unbiased platform they can hardly expect the public to truly believe in their Governence can they?

    Clare Curren destroyed labours credibility here and Labour now need to fix this ‘lack of a strong balanced media’ from the current National Party corporate controlled media that we have now.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/357780/government-s-38m-public-broadcasting-boost-still-on-the-table

    • “Without their own social/environmental/climate change public affairs views clearly stated on a commercial free unbiased platform they can hardly expect the public to truly believe in their Governance can they?”

      Absolutely. And without a free and independent media platform, accessible to all, how can our democratic process evolve? And how else can people begin to feel involved in whatever is happening.

      If there were such a platform, the young Climate activists (Extinction Rebellion etc) might not feel so desperate – they would have a voice somewhere.

    • Who would watch or listen to it?

      You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.

      Anyone interested in that viewpoint will be getting plenty of news from YouTube and blogs.

      • Rather, who would not want to watch or listen to it.

        If there is as little interest in the more serious and more humane aspects of our evolving nation as you seem to be suggesting, why were there so many grieving viewers when Campbell Live was axed? (TV in the early morning, yeah… nah, not so much.) He touched briefly on some of these topics – all that could be done in half an hour.

  8. When the previous poll came out two came out on the same June day.

    One had National 44 and Labour 42. Reid Research had Labour 51% and national 37%. It was pretty obvious that there was a screw up somewhere. In this case I think Reid screwed up badly.

    Now they are back with a poll that seems more believable and comparable with the other poll in June. Basically nothings changed.

  9. The Maori party will be silly to go with national that is why they got wiped last time they will need to put up some more good quality candidates so far they have one good candidate that is a good start but they need to get moving as people don’t like uncertainty or last minute planning. When many of our Maori people hear national party that is a big put off

  10. Or maybe its because people are unhappy with a government that promised much but delivered little perhaps? Not to mention the fact the opposition look just the same so people don’t know who to support and polls constantly keeps oscillating as a result?

  11. You can’t really trust polling numbers anymore, so who knows what is going on.

    Natz can afford to sit around and do nothing, then use dirty tactics and money to derail the opposition so they are set anyway. Who cares who their leader is, everyone knows the Natz leader is irrelevant, just a puppet for bribes and donations and selling off NZ for big business, which increasingly the other parties seem to want to a slice of.

    Labour/NZ First and Greens should have done something about dirty politics and dirty donations when it first surfaced with dirty politics, instead they did practically nothing, were complicit in getting rid of the Mana party…. ignored the $100k donation for access to MP list seats, ignored spying allegations about Jian Yang, don’t care about the MSM that only speaks for big business and owned by private equity, and now every election and lead up and pretty much every day life is full of constant allegations dirty politics style which often target more popular political figures being picked off and targeted for harassment via MSM and social media campaigns via dodgy types like whale oil paid for by big business while real issues are ignored and debate is paid for or trivial to get clicks…

    On top of that, the left could be in decline, Labour, Greens and NZ First have pretty much let their parties down and not fulfilled their election promises in particular around immigration controls, TPPA, real housing that people are used to aka 3 bed state house not 1 room motel or low cost house circa $600k) and real environmental measures including reducing immigration, starting in urban areas which are being destroyed even more with unfettered population growth and thousands of new cars a week on the back of incoming immigration and tourism, (while the locals who work and pay the taxes also pay with their time in congestion, including the decades of congestion via road works and upgrades to relieve the self caused congestion, just so the supermarkets/retail/fast food can have low cost workers lining up to work for them!).

    Greens and Labour seem to choose to ignore things like airline and cruise tourism and sewerage into the oceans, and take the easy road by just stabbing at farmers whom we need for food production while taking that international flight (Jacinda/Shaw) and conference and begging more people to come to NZ (Labour) as we have plenty of low cost housing (not!) to live in, and more people who need support and benefits to come here (Greens & migrant parents)!

  12. Labour has ignored all the material and labour scams that blossomed under the Natz!

    This is absolutely disgusting and should be front page news, but nope, bad construction news is minimised…

    It ain’t good news for housing or all the infrastructure than the taxpayer is paying billions for, and it ain’t good news for ratepayers when bovine local government signed off the consents and can be litigated against!

    Widespread defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel revealed

    “It is using ultrasound technology developed with Crown agency Callaghan Innovation, to look up to two metres inside concrete columns, beams, walls and floors.

    The technology is “pioneering”, Dr Paul Harris of Callaghan Innovation said. They also use ferro-scanning and ground-penetrating radar.

    Critical structural parts were defective or missing in 1100 of the 1200 buildings they had scanned since 2016, Ms Roach-Gray said.”

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/400919/widespread-defective-or-missing-concrete-or-reinforcing-steel-revealed

    If the government ignore scams and have a deregulated profit approach and are best buddies with construction and overseas neoliberals and counterfeiters, this is what happens!

    • The councils should order these scans to prove that the structure is ok as should any structure being paid for by public money, before signing off or paying for any new construction involving structural concrete, especially apartments and public buildings and infrastructure, and any firm and building failing should be on a public list and the firm who did the structure taken to court!

      • But why worry, when the news headlines are at Granny

        Shopper dismayed as Countdown demands ID for non-alcoholic beer
        ‘Flight from hell’: Jetstar passengers disgusted as family uses aisle seat as change table
        Tackling online extremism: $17 million announced for new dedicated team (Great so the SIS, GCSB, and god know how many more government organisations who can’t notice Tarrent now need yet another dedicated team that needs funding).
        Cancer patient moved from private hospital room to make way for inmate
        Unfortunate Pak’nSave billboard placement causes hilarity

        Newshub
        ‘Ignorant tw*ts’: Auckland restaurant under fire for ‘hipster allergies’ menu surcharge
        Five ways to slash your grocery bill
        ‘Make Ardern Go Away’ hats return to Trade Me
        Terrorist and extremist online content to be treated like child sexual exploitation material
        Aussie mum gives birth to ‘mini sumo wrestler’ 5.88kg baby daughter

        Stuff
        Supermarket shoppers hunt down plant-based proteins
        Couple help each other find love after 21-year marriage ends

        (Groceries are very well advertised as news here!)

        (Only two of the main news agencies carried the structural concrete issues, I guess that the 115 people dying at the CTV building with nobody in prison over it and little interest in helping those families, is not news worthy or gets government interest when grocery trivia, and funding for another dedicate task force, is more important than construction scams and building structural safety that have killed a lot more people in NZ).

  13. In the Hutt Valley Labour and the coalition have been filling the state houses with tenants and lots of building in Naenae, Epuni and Woburn is happening so they still look better than national as national for many of our people equal- more inequalities, selling of our state homes, selling of assets, more homelessness, uncontrolled immigration, lower wages and very small wage increases, poor job security these are few reason why we don’t want those mongrels back in and we also are still waiting for johns brighter future promise. Is that enough reason for you sean ?

  14. Too many lies and too much “Wokeness”.
    The ‘paper’ surplus will end up been a fizzer. Raising peoples expectations, again.
    We’ve been here before.

    • Also, when Natz failed repeatedly to get a surplus the MSM were all sympathy and huge cheers for Bill English from MSM when he got one on the backs of cancelling womens refuge funding etc, and headlines all the time about it, when Labour do it, (and they seem a lot better at getting budget surplus for whatever reason probably because they are slightly less corrupt than the Natz) then it’s all doom and gloom headlines…

  15. There is only one concern to me with this poll. It guarantees that the Me Me Me Latrine Rodent Party will continue and ramp up their divisive, undermining,ridiculing dirty politics smear campaign against the Government, especially Ardern. They couldn’t possibly care less if there is not a shred of merit in the sex smear allegations. All the Latrine Rodent Party are interested in is scoring “hits” against the Government. The very Party riddled with it’s own devious cheating on your partner record is the party who orchestrated the BS Staffer sexual abuse campaign. The very party who encouraged a housing crisis and then denied there even was a housing crisis is now the same party making the most noise about the Governments attempts to address the housing situation. The very party who couldn’t possibly care less about Kiwis doing it tough are now trying to sell themselves as a party who cares. They are the epitome of hypocrisy. The latest poll is a blip in terms of Ardern / Government popularity. How ironic that the Rodent Party is celebrating the poll despite it guaranteeing they remain in opposition. I look forward to great results at Pike River which the rat party are dreading. I look forward to the investigation into alleged sexual assaults being shown for what it is. More dirty politics from Paula Benefit. There is every chance the next few polls will be a nightmare for the Me Me Me Latrine Rodent Party. Bwidges will be in thrown out like rancid garbage shortly after next years election and replaced by their new God…Luxon who is only five years too late. Hilarious.

  16. Don’t worry Jacindafan this national lot seem to be getting way with lot but they ain’t going to get in despite having the media and millions of sponsorship deals on there side no way and people like me will be out there getting votes to make sure they don’t get back in and their god wont help them either we can see right through their god (luxon)

  17. Could the decline for Labour be something really simple like that we actually believed that they were serious about solving the housing crisis when we voted for them last time, and have now been struck by the very real reality that they are not?

    • The housing crisis was but one issue,Labour have fixed many others. As you say though, it was a crisis created by National,how many more will National create should they be re elected

    • “serious about solving the housing crisis”

      The coalition government first had to turn off the tap, whereby our NZ homes were being flogged off overseas at bargain basement prices. These were being bought up by speculators, people who continued to live in their own country, with no particular love of ours. So now we have foreign landlords charging Kiwis outrageous rents.

      The present government did not mess around. They stopped that free-for-all distribution of our homes to overseas buyers. They closed the tax loopholes and banned the foreign speculators, immediately.

      Who would want to go back to that greedy game-playing with our Kiwi homes?

  18. We live in a controlled corporate right wing state.
    Even when National are out of government their allies work too discredit the alternative ( neo liberal Labour, NZ First and the hostage party the Greens ) until they are back in government.
    John Key has almost perfect polling numbers poll on poll for eight years despite his frequent corrupt and ethical behaviour which lead me too believe that kiwis are really dumb or the polling data is compromised.
    How can anyone really believe the stats offered up by Media Works in these polls that received financial support from the John Key administration and have no loyalty to anyone else but the National party and its rich donors.

  19. national failed to get a surplus despite selling many of our state owned assets including at least 2 thousand state homes they said some were sold because they were earthquake prone yet people were rented these homes immediately after selling so that was an outright lie to sell them in the first place when bill was trying to booster his dodgy books to look like they were good economic managers

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