No one should think that the 2020 election will be a walk in the park. On social media the activist base seem delighted that the TVNZ Poll put Labour+Greens in front but this could all change in a flash.
We are already seeing National indulge in a destructive narrative for their election strategy. It won’t be about what National will do in Power, it will be aimed at discrediting Government itself. With micro targeting via social media, National can connect with the angry white male vote who feel marginalised and who make up part of the mass of people who don’t vote and hate the Greens.
In the last election, Matt McCarten’s strategy was to eliminate National’s coalition partners so that NZ First could choose Labour. Willie Jackson pulled urban Māori away from the Māori Party and Greg O’Connor was placed in Ohariu to take out Peter Dunne.
This election, one strategy for Labour to win the 2020 election is to kneecap the Greens.
Consider the battlefield.
National have launched their own green proxy ‘The Sustainability Party’ not to get over 5% or gift them an electorate, it is there to just drag the real Greens down under 5%.
The Greens have polled less than their actual 2017 election night result throughout the last 2 years and with Hate speech legislation to be debated and the Greens ability to alienate with their woke middle class identity politics, the more attention they get during the election, the less the electorate will like them.
National will play to that because Green Party activists on social media are the single worst advert for the Green Party.
So with more media attention at the loopier fringe stuff and a ridiculous internal debate over whether they want to dump James Shaw, the Greens will start looking flakier than they did while dancing around a May Pole.
For the record, while I certainly think James Shaw is as useless as a corpse in a deodorant advert, even suggesting he gets dumped this close to the election is pure insanity. The Greens are one of the most democratic parties around, if the Greens are failing to make traction or get runs on the board it’s because their MPs are too busy indulging in the latest hashtag self-victimisation online currency instead of arguing for radical climate change and challenging the neoliberal capitalism that is making that climate change an existential threat.
Blaming Shaw is only 10% of the problem.
So the Greens are likely to implode under any real pressure come the election, and with the Sustainability Party focused on dragging them under 5%, Labour need to consider raiding Green Party policy to steal some votes and cutting a deal with Winston to ensure they have NZ First and Labour as the Government come 2020.
Labour stand down Willow-Jean Prime in Northland and allow Shane Jones a free run. NZ First are guaranteed entry into the next Parliament even if they dip below 5%. Labour doesn’t do that for the Greens and they seize a big climate change policy idea alongside Green Party policy on beneficiaries and allow the Greens to destroy themselves while harvesting the wasted MMP vote when the Greens sink under 5%.
Labour had no problems stabbing Metria when Jacinda took over.
Labour went with NZ First on the Abortion law.
Labour have listened to Winston and realised that the electorate is more conservative than they appreciate.
NZ First has won every major concession they have wanted because Labour know the Nats have a larger support base than they do and siding with conservative NZ is easier than fighting it.
In the wake of the Christchurch atrocity, Jacinda stated ‘this is not us’. The Greens narrative was micro-aggressions lead to macro-violence and all white people are to blame. Jacinda went immediately for inclusion, the Greens adopted the Millennial exclusion = inclusion trigger free safe space model, (similar to what the Pride Parade Board did this year).
Would it be terrible if the Greens were wiped out? Yes, of course, heart breaking but if it’s the difference between a National Government or a Labour/NZ First Government you are going to want the latter not the former.
The cannabis debate could be the Green Party lifeline, so let’s hope that can create an option for them, but the Greens should be very wary of Labour, they have squandered 2 years by wallowing in their own self-righteousness rather than building bridges to a wider electorate and if Labour decides to kneecap them, it will be their own fault.
What is the actual point of having Labour/NZ first in power. To be a slightly kinder version of National. That will not get Labour a third term.
They have let down enough of their voters already. Capitulation to NZ first will only bring in a few lukewarm right wingers.
The point is to raise benefit rates and increase infrastructure investment.
Labour are not going to kneecap the Greens. MMP is about the governing parties finding a consensus to enact change or else it doesn’t happen. the aim is to have abortion removed from the crimes act, the government are well on its way in achieving that: 94 MPs in favour and 23 against passed the first reading was an outstanding effort. Disagree with your opinion on James Shaw, he’s far from useless and in regards to Metiria who knew the risks and will always be regarded as a selfless hero imo, you blamed “Rich, white, male broadcasters have had their witch hunt and we have lost a civil rights hero. NZ is a poorer political landscape for it
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/08/09/breaking-neoliberal-hate-of-the-poor-wins-metiria-resigns/
If you belive that then you should give up the game. On paper The National Party should cruise through. Could you imagine Simon Bridges helping protesters at Ihumātao or giving prisoners the vote. We wouldn’t be a lighting stock, we would be an uncivilised society.
I dont think National will cruise through, the same rhetortic was also banded about in 2017. National lost. On paper? are ypu referring the recent Colmar Brunton poll that put National no mates back in opposition?
A. No
A. No
The conservitive / right wing view of National is to have a safe, legal and rare abortion regime. That we can do. But eventually there will be things consensus can not agree on.
Taking abortion out of the Crimes Act will still make legal and safe. Dont know what “rare” has got to do with anything. We dont live in a perfect world. On governing parties reaching consensus, you win some you lose some, such is the nature of MMP.
You misunderstand the nature of winning. A true champion will always find away to win 100% of the time.
Liberalizing abortion will stop completely in its tracks if designer babies start showing up, choosing a babies sex, multiple abortion. So it must be rare, little girl.
Taking abortion out of the Crimes Act will still make legal and safe. Dont know what “rare” has got to do with anything. We dont live in a perfect world. On governing parties reaching consensus, you win some you lose some, such is the nature of MMP.
You aren’t watching a battlefield you’re watching an acting troupe
They seem to be kneecapping themselves just fine.
My answer to your question is NO
head in hands
The way NZ First and Greens are going, Labour might not make it back unless they gift an electoral seat to both parties. Well the Natz set the standard with Epsom so they can’t complain when other parties do the same thing!
Also last election is was as clear as normal to everyone but the Greens and Labour that they were allowing the Natz in because they were vote splitting Green and Labour votes. Aka Auckland central and Nelson had more green and Labour votes than Natz. Labour should stand down one of there electorate MP’s for the Greens.
Greens are more likely to get back in, although who knows with what tangent they might go off on next from cunts to Marie Antoniette housing. Meanwhile the planet burns and oceans are more polluted.
NZ First have already gone off on a tangent as their polls clearly show, and their voters are not impressed.
Labour scraped in, and seem to think Jacinda gold dust might do it again, which is not a wise move, because in spite of Simon Bridges not being popular the Natz remain stubbornly high in polls and their policy of residency for votes with hundreds of thousands of new poorly educated, greedy voters from the past decade, who vote for them, while marginalising more and more local voters who no longer vote (or have a house to live in and can complete a census) comes home to roost.
Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Labour, the Greens, (Lab people will vote Green to boost their numbers if need be, like last time), and NZ First get a second term in office. Winston Peters/NZ First always poll higher on election night, so dont let those opinion polls fool you.
All political parties will do whatever they can to get back into office. As a now completely disillusioned voter I can’t see it matters much who gets in anymore. They all look much alike to my eyes and a lot of friends both male and female, who I have spoken to.
Suffice to say if you want to claim to be on the left and Socialist its about implemented policy not identity politics and words.
Martyn I’m with you and Countryboy on this;
The greens are a definate ‘liability today’ – with many ‘young radicals’ that dont even talk about real ‘Environmental poliicy’ any more.
So yes labour should steal the ‘former Rod Donald/Jeannette Fitzsommon policies’ – that even I backed as a Green Paty member in 2000-2003.
As the current lot of greens cant even mention the word ‘rail’ any more in the same breath as environmental better transport options’ as NZ First has been saying for years now.
Sad lot they are.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, policy, policy, policy! All this tactical politics waffle just breeds partisan competitiveness and cynicism. If we want to improve the lot of the working people of Aotearoa, we need to envision what forms that improvement might take, and propose policy packages that might actually get us there. Debating the specifics of policy is how we educate each other and build consensus, not treating the whole thing as a zero-sum horse race. Policy, policy, policy!
This is a rather daft suggestion Martyn, Winston first is nobbling Labour in lots of policy areas. However, as a Labour member, I am hacked off and would consider joining the Greens as a bigger Green vote would keep Labour more honest.
Jays: I cannot understand why someone who worked in the university system would decry the free fees policy. Try some critical thinking – something which you should have been teaching.
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