The question every political pundit has been asking since last months surprise TVNZ and Newshub Polls ( which both told completely different narratives) has been, ‘which one is right’?
Last month the results were
TVNZ Poll
Labour – 42%
National – 44%
Green – 6%
NZ First 5%
TV 3 Poll
Labour -50.8%
National -37.4%
Green – 6.2%
NZ First – 2.8%
Tonight TVNZ released their latest Poll.
LATEST RESULTS:
TVNZ July Poll:
Labour – 43%
National – 45%
Greens – 6%
NZ First – 3%
ACT – 1
HOT TAKES:
Newshubs poll is now questionable and the shocking news is that National have managed 45% despite having done sweet bugger all for that 45%. It suggests a group of NZers vote Blue no matter what, they are so tribal they would disown their own children if they caught them liking a Jacinda Instagram post.
13% Don’t know or won’t say who they will vote for so that’s who the Parties will be chasing.
At 6%, the Greens are in danger of falling under 5% because they always over poll each election.
NZ First are also going down the gurgler, and if National were smart, they would just rule NZ First out as a coalition partner and really cut Winston off at the knees.
If NZ First and Greens both slip below 5%, the Party with the highest Party vote (in this poll National) would gain the redistributed Party vote to get a Parliamentary majority.
On this Poll National should be seeking to kill off the Greens and NZ First while keeping their stratospheric Party vote.
The stunned silence on Twitter of National being 45% is a reminder Twitter is a tiny woke echo chamber that alienates more than it recruits because there’s no way National deserves 45% – I fear other kiwis are responding to our call out culture, not the movements social justice.
NZ first is goneburger this time, yes I know they poll low early but this time except for a few elderly, their base has been betrayed.
The greens will be touch and go and their fate will decide the election in all likelihood.
As will the likelihood or otherwise of a coalition partner on the right.
I can think of 250 000 reasons for this poll, those votes are going to be looking for a home and will move around a bit yet.
TBH I think Ron Marks did enough managing the $20b DCP, The Champ has done enough with development and Tracy Martin, as well as Winston has done enough to get back in. Could you say the same for the Greens? I don’t want to say what the Greens should do but they’ve got to make it enjoyable to have them around and find a winning culture. Either Greens will do, or NZFirst will do. Both will be preferable. We still have the Marijuana referendum to go so nothing is forgone just yet.
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party got .03% last election, for those that still think Marijuana referendum is a number 1 election issue, could be part of the problem and smoking a bit too much of their own propaganda. Theres a different between casual smokers and a hot election issue that changes votes and the .03% shows how important the Legalise Cannabis is, on its own.
So far each choice to legalize the marijuana across the world, most notably in America, ha sheen succefully legalize. Around 30% of kiwis smoked the marijuana and you expect me to correlate that with 0.3% and extrapolate that with the likely successes of a cannabis referendum. Get the fuck out of here. What kind of boko haram logic is that?
I think you’re correct – NZF faces extinction in 2020 and the reason is not hard to find. It’s supporters are for the most part right of National. Winston’s decision to back Labour is seen as treachery by many of them. I follow some of their comments in social media and thy’re still fuming. There’s no coming back for Winston this time.
So what. Winton had all the Maori seats when he built up NZFirst. Now he’s got all the redneck ones. I think if NZFirst does faulted it will be because of softness in the economy, and well. That’s not happening.
Jacinda has to tread very carefully imo, despite her high popularity. What a lot of people here on TDB don’t seem to want to understand is why Jacinda can’t swing hard to left and do all the “popular” progressive stuff (including gutting our economy for our best case scenario of a 0.1% global impact on climate change). The fact is that only about 10% of NZers actually determine most elections (i.e. the swing voters). These people sit firmly centre and generally support “status quo” on most political positions. If you alienate them they either don’t vote (a minus 1) or, far worse, vote for the opposition (a minus 2).
“kiwis”? Bomber, foreign residents are allowed to vote in No Zealand after just one year here (like no other “country” on Earth… wonder why..hmm?)
The Transnational Capital Party just needs to sit back and wait for the Wage Slave Labour Party to boost its voter numbers…
M.O.E…..considerably more than 3.1%
the housing ponzi scam is popping over leveraged speculators and farmers will need national to put there debts onto the government books they need national to screw over tenant workers pensioners and future generations Cullen fund will be looted and gen x can forget retirement
If the left want another term, they need to lift up their socks and do real work and real help to the majority of people. They might lose if think Jacinda will be enough, or in the Greens space twitter are real people.
Unless there is a miracle, NZ First is gone. They failed to deliver what their party was supposed to stand for aka being anti immigration and putting New Zealander’s first failed to make any head way. Making someone work for the dole aint an election winner, nor does it create high paid jobs.
We have had 9 years of social engineering through immigration that the left are in denial about and Labour + coalition are keeping going with even more work visas issued and more OIA sell offs!
At a certain point if you work hard and can’t live on your income you get angry especially when everyone else seems to be getting concessions or money being wasted pointlessly at every turn. The middle classes housing boom is now gone because migrants are too poor and unskilled to afford housing here just like the locals.
People are sick of being fed propaganda by media, even today some journo who can’t do maths was apparently pontificating that immigration does not effect housing. (So the nearly 300,000 coming last year, even at 4 to a house, requires 70,000+ new houses), but because we have magical thinking apparently NZ is still to believe that they reside in thin air and never get sick for that matter because don’t see truck loads of money going into health care than provides a useable difference to someone’s waiting list or care.
Warm, dry houses apparently doesn’t kick in for state houses and social housing. Weird because they were the examples given to justify pushing it all through and creating higher rents and rental shortages with the above.
1.4 billion is being spent on upgrading roads for ‘safety’, which is money that could have been used for a train service and new public transport. But instead it is spent of roads, not even new roads either like the Natz, but a fortune spent on ‘safer’ roads, but nothing done about safety with fake drivers licence scams https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11999043 and no further investigation of studies showing for example only 3% of people from overseas being able to pass a NZ driving theory test in spite of record 4 million tourists…https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/only-3-foreign-drivers-pass-theory-test
The government seem fixated in only spending money like the Natz on existing construction firms and rogernomics economic thinking.
New hires are generally from overseas and surprise, surprise they are right wing refugees coming here for the government, policy, council jobs and have no idea what they are doing or what is going on here. Meanwhile more jobseekers pile up and another 8000 Kiwi’s leave to get a wage to prosper on without a glass ceiling.
Innovation in NZ is below Korea, it’s falling just like our stagnant productivity. Another formally Kiwi business goes under weekly as it’s hard to compete with all the labour and immigration frauds.
The government is turning a blind eye to real issues and frauds in immigration as they go for the trivial.
Even the migrants are trying to help the bovine immigration department get onto the scams.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/10-10-2018/meet-the-chinese-students-on-a-crusade-to-expose-immigration-fraud-in-nz/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12123831
Any race war, normally helps the right as the left over compensate aka trying to insinuate that the Pakeha racism were to blame for the ChCh attacks.
More and more people in NZ are victims of crime as more criminals are arriving and more desperate local and arriving migrants get involved in crimes and more shipments of drugs get through.
TPPA was pushed through in the first few days of being elected as a priority for labour, now they are working with the Natz to ‘reform’ the RMA.
The left are better than the Natz, but also are very like the Natz in terms of policy. So you are not left with much to work with as a voter.
The election could go either way. Especially if the left get too complacent and think because Simon is unpopular then he is not able to win, start dong a campaign to help overseas criminals being treated unfairly in OZ, (NZ prisoners can’t even vote, so calling the kettle black there on human rights), doing a 2014 and fighting amongst themselves over a very small percentage of voters, and thinking that all the policy misses like Kiwibuild are just going to vanish right before the election!
The Natz strategy will be to push Simon out at the last minute to then create good will for the new Natz PM and take the media attention in a different direction.
It worked for Labour!
Next election is anybodies election.
The only thing that saved labour for the middle classes was not implementing a CGT. Sadly there could have been a high wealth tax, aka anyone with assets over $10 million for example pay a bit more, that doesn’t effect most people here, (and dampen down the obsession with palatial homes and assets owned by foreigners and non tax residents) but that opportunity never happened because the tax working groups seemed hand picked to protect the $10 million+ groups and target the middle class voters.. also the tax was too greedy in the first place aka 33% and relied on taxable income (ha, ha, if anybody still thinks taxable income is a measure of wealth they need their heads read). So the whole thing was a dogs breakfast and wasted opportunity to widely explore a range to ways to make globalism work tax wise, as well as the people on it were all the same types representing the same types of people!
A bit presumptuous thinking 45% of the voters in this country are either losers or so entrenched as national voters they are incapable of thinking clearly, wouldn’t you say Martyn.
You say National dont deserve 45%. May I ask what do Labour deserve when poverty and inequality is worsening, beneficiaries numbers are exploding, neoliberalism is here to stay, no CGT, hardship grants up by 200,000 this year alone and emergency accommodation at record levels. Our most vulnerable are doing it tougher than ever in our year of delivery. What percentage does that deserve?
And if there was not the extra state houses being built, WFF increase in 2018, the Power Income Supplement and the easier access to hardship grants it would have been worse.
It’s certainly tough for those renting, with prices going up as they are – but there is going to be greater reliability as to quality and rents fixed in value for a year at a time. They have to do more to get supply and demand in sych.
Beneficiary numbers exploding? yeah na.
NOT surprised with this government not getting more support, Sue Bradford said it all on Q+A.
National will stay strong within the better off middle class. The government is sadly a weak fabric of a three party alignment, not safe at all. There needs to be a stiff challenge to the status quo to bring real change, Jacinda is hopeless, buying on vague hope, offering NOTHING of substance. It is a totally hopeless state of affairs in NZ politics.
These numbers just cannot be correct. Bomber don’t create a narrative until you are sure.
All this tactical discussion does is treat politics like Dungeons & Dragons. Will this party kill all the monsters and find all the treaure, or will that party get killed by Orks? Who cares? What matters is not which people or parties sit in which seats after an election, but what *policies* they enact.
The goal of democratic activism must be to win policy debates, over both the goals of government, and the means used to achieve them. If we allow ourselves to be distracted by gossip column “politics” focused on personalities and their scandals, or games of thrones and the rises and falls of great houses, we lose. Whoever sits in the seats. As I repeated ad nauseum in the lead-up to the last election, policy, policy, policy!
In the drive for election or re-election it’s popularity not policy that counts.
You want true democracy? It’s not by elections, it’s by citizens’ assemblies randomly selected.
Martyn
Thanks for your break down of the recent TV Polls.
We have massive numbers of Immigrants annually. Do we know how many are very wealthy; how many are quite well off; how many are poor ?
I’d like to see statistics of how many migrants in the last 30 years are now on some sort of benefit or state help. I’d guess quite a lot because most low wage jobs are topped up and it is easy to hide assets in NZ because John Key made it like that. I don’t blame the migrants but I think a good hard look in that direction might be illuminating to policy experts.
Also how many migrants leave the country after gaining permanent residency. Maybe even more than the Kiwis who have real skills?
How many get prosecuted for crimes and do they get lighter sentences for similar crimes. Have some crimes like drugs and frauds escalated in the past few years?
What the level of taxes are for migrants coming here… does it rise of fall once permanent residency is granted.
We need real statistics, warts and all, and that would help the government to make better decisions and not rely on industry and scams to create bizarre policy.
It is a massive issue and expanding yearly…but not much real data seems to be kept or it is so badly investigated that both sides make conflicting claims to the meaning.
We do know,
ON 30 June 2017 there were 152,432, temporary workers present in New Zealand. It was 16 per cent higher than the year before.
By this year it is reported that there are now 250,000 temporary workers present in NZ from 2018… again a major escalation of numbers.
2019 who knows at this rate!!!
Immigration effects everything in NZ, from housing to health care. The government burying their head in the sand is not going to help them because they keep making the same mistakes and relying on the same commentators to give them flawed policy advice that makes them figures of ridicule like Iain Lees-Galloway/Sroubek saga.
The Kiwibuild way of just making some weird political statement with no real thinking behind it aka build $100,000 new houses for the middle class youth to get onto the property ladder, that has tanked at least 2 elections so far for Labour, and being totally wrong about what the meaning is (aka they can’t even sell the Kiwibuild houses to those people who don’t want the flawed offerings) and what the real issues are (aka low incomes, transient jobs, more social costs coming down the pipes from mental health to addiction).
Grow up government!
Get real data and analyse it before a political slogan forms from a marketer! Stop trying to put a gloss on something that is untrue!
Real policy will make the difference, but before that, the government needs to quickly get the data analysed and work out what has gone wrong because we live in a country full of people who can’t find anybody to work, Our workforce is unproductive and works poorly and seem to make a lot of mistakes, while workers who do work can’t survive on the wages, and the amount of people on benefits and extremely poor is rising. All the factors are not exactly working to make NZ a better equal place!
Discrimination is rife. There is massive skill gap of people who should be in management now but never got there in NZ, and it has become easy and trendy for companies to import in managers who know nothing about NZ or the culture here to implement policy that of course often goes wrong! The case of Joanne Harrison is a perfect example, she managed to make the whistleblowers redundant to stop questions being asked about her frauds, all under the noses of Martin Matthews, who is now our auditor general. https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/21-07-2017/the-ministry-of-transport-fraud-case-why-the-rot-goes-deeper-than-joanne-harrison/
Adding more bodies, here for residency with very little interest in the character of those coming here leave the social costs to everyone else, is not helping solve the issues or make people trust Labour, because the issues have not stopped with the change of government, they seem to be escalating instead!
If the Greens and NZF both dipped just below 5% we could have a scenario in which transNational gets a majority in the house despite (considerably) less than 50% vote at the ballot.
This was the kind of outcome that moving to MMP from FPP was supposed to eliminate.
The problem: wasted votes. Our MMP system needs to be changed so that everyone’s vote counts towards the make-up of parliament.
Been a Labour supporter my entire life, but I’m really struggling to get motivated this time round. Really struggling. They feel very much like the status quo party. I feel like the ideas they campaigned on either weren’t implemented, were implemented in a heavily reduced state, or abandoned all together.
Ardern talked a big talk in the fight against Facebook. Meanwhile New Zealand gets worse by the day, with no change in site. I mean, Canterbury’s water is so polluted with nitrates that it might give you cancer! Should we address it? Nah. What the actual Hell is going on with this country?
Honestly, at this point I’d just about vote for anyone who promised significant change and stood up with enough conviction that they might actually push it through.
The expectations of the (real) left in New Zealand will not be met anytime soon if at all.
The election of this administration and its continuation of neo liberal policies after nine years of austerity at the hands of the nasty Natz is no surprise nor is Nationals poll numbers as they are supported by the group of kiwis who don’t give a fuck about the deprivation that exists for an increasing number of wage slave’s and the poor in general and are doing bloody well.
At around the 45% mark that is a large voting base that wants Simon Bridges who is as popular as rug burn as prime minister and a continuation of level one austerity to be inflicted on the rest of the country.
The only reason the government is polling at 43% is Jacinda Adern.
Labour failed to inspire anyone for nine years and even after a three term National led government who was one of the most corrupt in our history and was on track for a unprecedented fourth term could not poll high enough too stop it.
The tragedy is that any hope of a strong government of the left has been dashed and with it the hope of the austerity class as the neo liberal system continues to keep its boot firmly on their heads.
Jacinda at some point will want too spend more time with her child and will step down sooner rather than later and the Labour parties biggest asset will have left the room.
Then the brighter future mark two will begin probably with Mr Luxton’s face on the bill boards.
If that latest Colmar Brunton poll is repeated again when the next poll comes around Labour are in real trouble.
This is clear now because the whole media ‘Newshusb, TV one and Radio NZ “National” are all controlled by the spin doctors of the National Party prbablly by Steven Joyce and John Key.
We warned the new labour NZF Government to replace Clare Curren and put another Channel Seven public affairs channel up to sell the Government policy to the people, and Clare Curren sabotaged Jacinda and the Nnew Government by not providing Government with their oiown media platform so the result is now obvious.
Who wins the ‘media’ wins the ‘next Government’, and so far this Government are loosing.
Labours only chance is to now get that “free TV channel up and running quick smart NOW and sack Clare Curren and her Dunedin based ‘RNZ National troll tribe’ who are at the centre of labour’s demise.
RNZ seems to have a bit of a right wing bend these days.
There is not much meaningful investigations of anything anymore in NZ and investigations seem heavily politicised here both left and right. Life is complicated and NZ commentators often tries to simplify information to such an extent it becomes a caricature and turns people off.
Martyn: “shocking news is that National have managed 45% despite having done sweet bugger all for that 45%”
That’s not how politics works. By any measure you care to name, the current government is failing. It’s failing in every portfolio, and it’s failing especially badly where it made outlandish election promises.
So for the moment National just has to sit and watch the current government crash and burn and then take over almost by default. Next year they will turn on their campaign machine and throw Ardern’s promises back in her face.
I’m quite comfortable with these figures. It’s a Labour-Green coalition.
But it is preferable for Labour to be ahead of National. And have two options for forming a coalition majority (or be a sole party in government if both fall below 5%).
And I suspect a more accurate poll shows this is the case.
From 22 polls from 23 Sept 2017 to 29 July, 2019. The Gweens av is 5.1%. Well in the danger zone of the margin of error. Dae is history! Woop! Woop!
Polls only have a lifetime of no more than, the time the next poll turns up. That been said, The Gweens are fuck’d!
Just heartbreaking to see people still voting National, after all they have been put through by the party. I’d like to see some sort of assistance for National voters; first do research on why these Non-Maori hold these views (nest feathering, nepotism, back stabbing, information fabrication and obfuscation, racism, fraud, lack of reason, ponytail fetish, psychopathy, war mongering, ecological rape, denial etc.) and why these Non-Maori are over-represented in this dangerous group think (being Non-Maori is surely too simplistic, too brutal a solution), then offer a wrap around service particularly looking at mental health issues of these Non-Maori National Party supporters and the societal harm they cause. Thank you.
Jacinda will be encouraged to keep her ship of government well on the middle of the road, neither here nor there, going by the polls.
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