1. Brilliant synopsis Martyn; –

   Of what 2020 will look like; – as Jacinda is our best hope coupled with Winston as the common sense moderator and most experienced politician in Parliament today, with vital important knowledge of who to watch and how these politicians are going to act come election time.

   Winston has more than anyone else “more experience at fronting “dirty politics” – whom you can bet National will once again roll it out to try and stymie the ‘Jacinda/Winston train’ to a “better future”.

   • Martyn – I forgot the ‘wild card’ section please include;

     “Chinese Government agents interference in our 2020 election”

2. Jacinda will step aside as PM post election win, to give Grant a shot and to be a celebrity mum for a few years and then come back before the 2023 election!

   Winston will still be alive …
   Gweens won’t make 5%, thank fuck!
   Judith will have a bif with the fat gurl from out west … Truck Stop Pullah.
   The Con’s & the “Porn Watch’n” Families First will hook up and watch porn together.
   TOP could seriously make a comeback as the “Predator Free Party” and the “See I told You So” Capital Gains Tax whores!
   Did I say the Gweens will die?

3. Wildcard
   Simon Bridges sees the light , repents , resigns and joins the Salvation Army.

4. Pretty reasonable run down Martyn.
   @ Dennypaoa Np way will they let Jacinda resign even if she wanted to. Martyn was spot on with her. If Winston spoke his heart when he announced his intention to go with Labour, and can persuade Jacinda to adopt his programme when as he has predicted the global neoliberal banking temple falls down we could have the best possible combination in place in that scenario.
   D J S

5. Next the Greens will adopt in their policy program the concept of uni- or solo-marriage, one marrying him-, her- or itself, the perfect solution for narcissistic millennials, who get too alienated towards each other too quickly, thus shying away from getting into any meaningful relationship.

   But sarcasm aside, are you not a bit too harsh on the poor Greens?

   They may need an invasion of extinction rebellion members and followers into the party, which could shake them up from the inside.

   • Imagine the marriage break up and divorce!
     D J S

6. By showing the truer leftists that may still exist in New Zealand and within the voter base the cold shoulder treatment, Jacinda and her semi neoliberal party will possibly charm enough voters to get there in 2020. A significant share of the mostly urban, car and property loving middle class, especially women, will give her the benefit of the doubt, and give her another chance. They will feel less threatened after the CGT has been ditched for now, and they are comfortable with a National Light version of a government, that allows them to proceed with their consumerist, convenience loving and opportunistic life styles.

   Jacinda will hold the left and the right at bay, some will think, so better the devil we know, rather than the devil we do not know.

   But having made it there, Jacinda will realise that being a mother of a little child will be a greater mission for her personally, so she will announce within no more than a year after the election result, and after a Labour – Green or Labour – NZ First government may have been formed and sworn in, that she will retire from politics.

   A caretaker leader will be appointed within Labour, and a proper leader voted for, and whatever comes after that, it will be wide open to speculate about, as Jacinda will move on.

   Never underestimate the sense of responsibility and emotional ties a young mother does feel, to do all to make sure her child gets all it needs, and that starts with Mum being there, spending quality time on a daily basis, not on and off, and with many stressful interruptions.

7. Please get rid of that vile Golriz Green. She’s a dangerous fool.

   Perhaps Twyford gets squashed by one of his very slow, very expensive trams?

8. How truly sad and pathetic is it that this government, as you demonstrate is failing on pretty much everyone of their main policies and is in fact making things worse for those struggling in our society. But then you say Ardern will get back in because she handled the Christchurch attacks like any other decent person with a heart and a shred of empathy would have. Politics in this country is stuffed, when a person can win because she seems nice and kind, but can’t deliver shit to those who actually need it, and are dying because of her inaction. Truly fucking embarrassing.

   • Oh come on Mickeyboyle we had to put up with mr brighter future for 9 long painful years so 3 yrs of this coalition is nothing they can never do as bad as what we just had cause we had nothing and got nothing including a fucked up half pie census.

     • ” mr brighter future ”

       L0L0L0L !

       Who f@cked off as soon as the cards went against him. Still he aligned those cards nicely in accord to Obomba at he time , you must admit.

       Got Kim Dotcom ILLEGALLY arrested, and denied basic Human Rights such as a phone call to his lawyers, ILLEGALLY impounding and selling off his assets so he couldn’t defend himself in court , yeah….

       We wont bother mentioning the corrupt tax havens under Key that even the IMF mentioned….or Operation Burnham…

       It goes on and on and on in this country under the neo liberal shit passive aggressive fascism .

       I like your style there, Michelle.

       Keep posting.

     • Michelle: “….we had to put up with mr brighter future for 9 long painful years….”

       True enough, but this lot promised they’d do better, be different. They haven’t and they aren’t. They’re just more of the last lot, only without the unlamented former dear leader. It isn’t much of an advance, really, to be able to say that our current PM is better-looking.

       When Ardern assumed the leadership, I viewed her as a show pony. I’ve seen nothing since to change my mind. In my view, she handled the aftermath of the ChCh shootings exactly as I’d expect of a PM: nothing exceptional. Though I thought her wearing a headscarf was a big political misstep.

       All that blathering about kindness or whatever it was. Pfft! How about some courage? How about spending some of that political capital overturning the worst of the neoliberal experiment? Raising benefit levels by enough that people can actually live with dignity on them? Renationalising our failing electricity market? Stop over-promising with regard to building affordable houses? Put real heft into building state houses? With regard to international affairs, taking a much more independent stance as a country: maybe even – gasp! – non-aligned? Decoupling us from the US and UK and EU, except as trading partners? If her government did those things, I’d vote for them.

       But not as things stand. I’m a lifelong lefty, and I’ve always voted that way. Now I’m reconsidering.

9. It’s way past time we moved to at least a four, if not five, election cycle.

10. By the time we’re thinking about who to vote for, Christchurch will be long forgotten, except that the Royal Commission will have investigated it and found a lot of police incompetence with Jacinda having chaired the committee that relaxed requirements for firearms licence applications. Emotional intelligence only gets you so far…

    People will be looking at promises not delivered. Trees not planted, houses not built, doctors fees not reduced, firearms not bought back, light rail not installed. I think it’s all downhill for her from now.

    A softening economy and falling house prices won’t buoy the mood either.

    Winston Peters is unlikely to retain his 5%. His voter base is to the right of National and they now regard him as a traitor. So that’s one potential Labour coalition partner gone. The big unknown is where former NZF supporters will go next.

    The Greens: Busy destroying themselves through woke virtue signalling. Current polling is around 5% and all they need is one Metiria style scandal and they’re gone.

    So, as always with MMP – the result of the next election is pretty much random.

    • Bridges will lead National but N.Z. now know that National can never be trusted. National ministers will desert the sinking ship like they did the last election proving once and for all that they were only ever interested in power and a dictatorship. Labour will once again be in government and will still be required to spend billions to clean up Nationals messes of 9 years. Brownlee, Smith and co will finally resign and get early retirement as they will have nothing to offer.

11. >:(

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Mfz4rMThEE

12. Is there a ‘Meh’ big enough to express my meh-ness? I doubt it.
    ” Lets do this!” Never got done and speaking of dunne? pete never did it either. We Kiwis are shut tight in the broom closet lest we peak out into the sunlight and explore our very own AO/NZ to its fullest without being fettered by abusive morons and ignorant imbeciles who know full well, in their own minds, that they know better than we do about how we could live our lives and all they have to do is keep convincing us of that while they sell us out into burgeoning foreign debt.
    While our media is all over the U$A orange tyrant and its all U$A orange tyrant discourse we’re steered away from the truly and progressive countries that could give us hope, solve global conflict and unite us as a species the likes of which we’ve never seen before in history; like Portugal, Venezuela, Iceland and any/ all of the Skandi countries.
    This idiot Labour party is a vain party of teeth and hair and soft core, tut-tut, poor-us, porn-cooing that’d make a unicorn vomit up its marsh mellows. Labour MP’s have all the dynamism of worn carpet in a Presbyterian church hall. As we sit and mope looking down upon its holes and tufts in hopeless hope as a cold draft of pointless frustration blows around our ankles as the mumblers in charge mumble on. If there was a timid, toothless Labour MP mouse suffering from anxiety disorders and only held together by bottles of prozac? I’d rather vote for it. Does such a mouse exist?
    National? The National Party. Where to begin?
    The Last Straw Party. How can they still be a thing? There must still be so many ignorant and emotionally disabled farmers out there to be glad they’re getting fucked by National. “ Please mistress?? I beg of you? Harder! Harder! Haaaaarrrrder ! “ You wait until that paradoxical abomination of all that I love about women gets the jump on dipshit bridges? There will be many who will be looking for actual bridges to jump off as their houses become less like banks (ego) and more like prisons as it’s morbidly revealed that National Party supporters were cheated, swindled, then sold out to Chinese money and now look around morons? The New Beijing where there was once a little town called Auckland. Quaint wee thing, it was. The only thing that made the city seem International was the pimps, junkies, homeless people and hookers hanging out on K Rd. Phil Goff was going for the Baltimore Maryland look but couldn’t find any Baltimore class here to prop up the attempt.
    The sundry Dip-Shit Parties.
    The Greens. Why? I mean? Why? They’re green as grass. That is it.
    NZ First? How’s that workin’ out for ya winnie? Looks like NZ’s a bit, ya’ know? Last. So, thanks. But your mates? Rich-as, right?
    TOP? Is it still alive? Or has someone kindly put a cap in it’s ass?
    Maori Party? Nothing new about pretending to be something else while you rip off your whanau for $ix figure$ plu$ entitlement$ and expen$e$ right?
    AO/NZ politics is a cluster fuck and if it were not for a greedy and callous Public Service greasing the corrupt machinery to keep their pocketsess lined the whole listing, shit barge would roll over and sink.

13. Martyn,

    I’m astonished that having written ‘when you consider climate change is the most pressing issue our species is collectively facing’ under the subheading ‘Greens’, you have not ranked climate change at all in your subheading ‘Issues’.

    Now either climate change is THE most pressing issue or it’s not. And if it is the most pressing issue, then surely it needs to be ranked number one in the ‘Issues’ list. And political parties need to be rated on their willingness to address the existential issue of climate change (which hardly reflects the reality of what is happening, since the Earth is undergoing the early stages of extraordinary overheating that will lead to mass extinction in a matter of decades of not adequately addressed).

    It’s worth noting that atmospheric CO2 will be ‘knocking on the door’ of 420 ppm by the time of the next election, and that practically all the environmental factors that have been discussed over recent years on this blog -overheating of the oceans and the land, severe weather events relating to that overheating, ocean acidification, plastics in the oceans, melting glaciers and ice sheets, extinction of species etc. -will all be measurably worse in late 2020 than now.

    • Spot on @AFEW!!

      We’re working to make Climate Change the key issue for the upcoming Local Body Elections. Why? Because there’s a heap that can be done at local level and if we bring that focus to the local election then next year it’ll be the key issue for the 2020 election.

      • Good luck with trying to wake up councilors and politicians to the reality of planetary meltdown; I spent nearly 20 years on it and complexly wasted my time, energy (and money).

        Council and government policies remain predicated on sacrificing the environment -and therefore sacrificing the future health and welfare of citizens – on the altar of BAU, which is predicated on growth.

        • I think the only way to address the impending doom to earth as we know it is a totalitarian world government that reinvents modern civilisation without capitalism as the main driver, and that is not going to happen. Its not as if humanity is not cognoscente about the damage of plastics and pollution from industry is causing the earth and atmosphere but the horses have already bolted, so the attitude is ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, may the best man win etc…with Band-Aids like carbon tax and banning ‘one-use plastic bags’ as a panacean …joke…to calm the masses before we are wiped out in the not too distant future.

14. I hope the blue greens succeed in tanking the green party. Perhaps then an actual environmental party will step forward.

15. I’m inclined to give Labour more credit. They did not really win the last election, are in a coalition with a middle of the road conservative party, and even with a deeply unpopular leader National is still holding in the 40’s support wise. Elections are won or lost in the centre, and Labour simply does not have all that much room to swing to far to the Left. But it is unfair to claim they are doing nothing. National’s punitive approach to beneficiaries is being overturned, the workplace relations legislation which will significantly empower unions is coming, and we still have two budgets to go. I’m prepared to give Labour two terms before passing judgement.

    • Very well thought out, to which I thoroughly agree.

16. The Greens will get above 5%. The fixation that some on the Left have with “free speech vs hate speech” means sweet feck all to families crammed in state houses, living in cars, having to deal with the braindead at WINZ, or middle class families dealing with constant bill-paying, staying afloat, attention-demanding realities of life, etc, etc

    Its simply as important to 99% of Aotearoans as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East (as long as fuel prices dont rise)

    Thems whats called RE-AL-LITY

    Post 2020, all four parties plus Seymour will return to Parliament

    TOP – nah

    Blue-Greens – nah

    I’m picking a Lbour-Green coalition, first guess. Or a Labour- NZFirst- Green coalition, second guess

    Simon Bridges will be toppled Resigns from parliament, and by-election called

    Collins will stand but her support is as weak as Amrrican beer

    My pick, Amy Adams, to counter the Ardern Effect

    And thats it

    • I would not discount the potential for the free speech/hate speech issue to harm the Greens, and Labour for that matter, if they are perceived as going further than most Kiwis might want. While economic issues are usually paramount to most voters, that’s not always the case. The last Labour government was turfed out in part because of a perception of PC overreach (remember the light bulbs fiasco?) and that could harm both parties if they don’t tread very carefully on this issue.

17. This has to be the most idiotic useless post put up.

    Event s are events.

    Incidents are incidents.

    Accidents are accidents are accidents

    The NZ 3 year voting cycle is idiotic, (so is the 5 year one).
    Anything more than 5years is tyrannical and a cruel and unusual punishment.

    Maybe ( I wish) the striking children might awake the bradbury despised “sleepy hobbits”.

    Trying to predict future election results halfway thtough an electoral term is idiotic.

    I am more certain that S Bridges will not be the leader of the next national government (if it happens).

18. Prediction:
    The “United Workers Party” forms during 2019. It steadily rises up in the polls, and charges to victory in the 2020 election. As a government, the United Workers Party enacts fundamental changes to NZ’s economic landscape, renationalising former publically owned entities, causing foreign banks, insurance shysters and speculative billionaires to flee, and seeing the health and wellbeing of all citizens raised beyond wildest expectations.
    And then, just as a new era of fairness and prosperity beckons for all …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. climate change induces catastophic collapse of Earth’s ecosystems and we all perish.
    The End.

19. The real ticking time bomb is interest rates.

    Once they come back to normal levels instead of the record lows they’re at now, everyone will feel the pain – and shit will get real very fast.

    There’s so many people out there leveraged to the hilt, it’s scary.

20. Jase: “And then, just as a new era of fairness and prosperity beckons for all, climate change induces catastophic collapse of Earth’s ecosystems and we all perish.
    The End.”

    What? In the next electoral cycle? Isn’t that a little precipitate, even for the chicken-lickens among us?

    • Nah.
      Just a lighthearted attempt to say that, even if a much hoped for transformation in NZ does by some miracle occur, it will ultimately be futile in the face of climate change induced ecological collapse. Sigh.

21. We need a strong party that advocates mainly for the working class and Maori.

    • “We need a strong party that advocates mainly for the working class and Maori.”

      When I was young, that was the Labour party. Much good it’s done us, supporting that lot now.

      We’ve had a party which advocated for Maori: it was a spectacular failure. People should have seen that coming: parties which are designed to serve the needs of a particular ethnic group will fail. That’s because members of a group are connected only by their ethnicity or skin colour: their interests and political views are as diverse as those of everybody else in society.

      We don’t need another party advocating for Maori. The underlying issue in respect of Maori underachievement is class. Skin colour is irrelevant.

      However: we certainly do need urgently a party which advocates for the poor and the working class. I’d consider voting for it: I doubt that I’ll be voting for the current bunch of muppets on the treasury benches.

Comments are closed.