Pessimistic Predictions for 2019

By   /   January 3, 2019  /   42 Comments

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If 2018 was a lost year where the woke left & alt right dominated debate, 2019 could be the year of reactionary entropy.

I’d like to be optimistic, but there’s just no actual reason to be anything other than pessimistic about the damaged horizon looming like a fractured mirror in front of us.

Here are some worst case scenario reckons mixed with some run of the mill ones..

If 2018 was a lost year where the woke left & alt right dominated debate, 2019 could be the year of reactionary entropy.

I’d like to be optimistic, but there’s just no actual reason to be anything other than pessimistic about the damaged horizon looming like a fractured mirror in front of us.

Here are some worst case scenario reckons mixed with some run of the mill ones…

Free speech starts another counter productive fight?
Jordan Peterson is coming to New Zealand and will incite a violent response from the Woke that makes middle New Zealand see them as the problem, not Jordan Peterson’s simplistic mantras. Action Station will start another tedious petition and the Woke will over react as they will see his popularity as a direct threat over their hold of the narrative. Journalists who should know better will claim free speech is white cis male privilege, a bomb threat will be called into the venue, (the same way the Powerstation was threatened) and Marama Davidson will lead eye rolling counter productive protests that burn up the little good will she has left. The Woke won’t be able to help themselves and it will end up damaging the credibility of the entire Left more than the crypto-fascist debate as Peterson knows how to manipulate vitriolic protest into victimhood better than a third rate mummy blogger throwing a tantrum or a member of the Wellington Twitterati seeking PSA martyrdom.

 

Identity politics Culture war backlash & Grace’s death?
The Pride Parade will be poorly attended and media coverage will be deeply negative, that will see the Woke ever more militant in the face of popular opinion turning against them and will make them even more outraged on Twitter and Facebook. This could all have a terrible backlash if the politicisation of Grace Millane’s death is not what activists have sold it as. If that death is not the example of heteronormative patriarchy and violence it has been claimed as, the blowback could set feminism back a decade.

 

Greens slip under 5%?
Because the Greens are now a political vehicle for woke middle class identity politics, this alienation and woke backlash will hurt them the most. Marama Davidson may have spent most of 2018 calling  for white bros to delete themselves but she might miss that support when the Greens sink into irrelevance.

 

Climate change storm that changes debate?
With the planet dangerously warming, super storms and catastrophic climate events will occur that we simply haven’t seen before. A category 6 Hurricane that decimates an economy or a heat wave that kills tens of thousands could shake a complacent political establishment out of their apathy.

 

The 2019 Economic collapse?
Every indicator that an enormous economic collapse that could push the planet into  full scale recession or depression is now blinking in panic. Adam Smith’s natural collapse and purge of Capitalism that should have occurred in 2007/2008 was put off  making the situation far more dangerous. 20% of Chinese apartments are now empty, when that enormous glut implodes the damage is incalculable. Trump’s trade war aimed at destabilising China is leading to war, Brexit and the Italian crisis of confidence will sink the EU and emerging markets will be crushed by a rising American dollar and interest rates they simply can’t pay back. A hard rain is going to fall and that will see a rise in socialism by Millennials who have no idea what it is.

 

Could Trump implode?
Forget impeachment, Trump is now in danger of being removed by the system itself. By rejecting free market neoliberalism and the military industrial complex, Trump has now made real enemies of the Amerikan Deep State establishment. Those enemies could put immense pressure on Pence to depose Trump.  If the economy crashes and the Cold War with China starts heating up,  it could only be a matter of time before Mike Pence (who has always believed he would one day become President) informs Donald that he has a majority of the Cabinet willing to remove him from Office and take over the remainder of Trumps term. The backlash from angry Trump supporters could push the country to the brink but with so few political leaders willing to back Trump, that fury won’t find leadership and becomes a septic wound.

 

British Brexit Fascism
With the current attempts of migrants to cross the English Channel, a wave of Nationalistic Fascism could suddenly become mainstream. With a spluttering economy and Brexit political impotency, the irrational anger of a former Empire facing external colonisation will stir all sorts of dark furies. Corbyn either heals with positive populism or falls to negative populism.

 

China strikes back
As Chinese strategists fantasise about sinking two American Aircraft Carriers, the end of Chinese soft power expansion into the Pacific will give way to a sudden tightening of that grip. With China struggling from Trump’s trade war onslaught, attacking the weakest member of the 5 Eyes looks like a strategically smart move to show America the true extent of their soft power. Expect trade to suddenly get rocked by import troubles and an enormous drop in milk powder sales. While we are being hit economically, Chinese newspapers in NZ will ratchet up perceived insults to the Chinese speaking domestic population and call for large scale protests. New Zealanders will be surprised and deeply alarmed by this. The steady and slow drum beat towards war with America will continue.

 

Auckland Mayoralty
Phil Goff will face a serious challenge from a new Mayoralty candidate who will present a united front and a different vision for Auckland. Goff’s loss will scare the bejesus out of Labour.

 

Labour Deputy
Kelvin Davis will step aside to focus on Corrections.

 

JLR strikes back
When you consider that JLR didn’t commit the original leak (the ‘third faction‘ inside National did the leak and framed JLR) his vengeance will be frightening as he delivers his remaining nukes. These will destabilise Bridges leadership (which is already facing a threat over the Summer). The Third Faction want to move before Judith Collins builds any more support in Caucus and they will be pushing for a Leadership challenge this month. It will lead to a National Party in disarray and attempts to exploit this with new start up right wing Party’s

 

The rise of the New Conservatives
Right wing hate merchant, David Moffett will use the woke backlash for maximum political effect to rise the New Conservatives above the 5% threshold. His willingness to openly add spite, anger and the dripping threat of violence will appeal to the Jordan Peterson fan club and those hit by the first wave of negative economic fall out. Expect to see this type of political shit stain spread with depressing speed.

 

Pacific Island Meth explosion in Auckland
The explosion of meth use in the Pacific Islands will create massive feedback loops inside Auckland’s own huge Pacific Island community. This crippling epidemic will crush up against moves to legalise euthanasia, abortion and cannabis and cause a leadership crisis within the socially conservative Pacific Island community which will be open for exploitation.

 

Kiwibuild meltdown
If Labour had true courage, they would have recreated the Ministry of Works and built the bloody houses themselves! Phil Twyford’s terse admission that the program is for the children of the middle classes tastes bitter in the mouths of those living in shit conditions and who voted Labour in the hope for better. Kiwibuild will continue to underperform and remain a political weeping wound throughout 2019.

 

Newshub and Fairfax job losses – NZ Herald to lose political power – Fake news to grow
Media Consolidation overseas have seen journalist jobs dumped and chopped, and we will see the same here with Newshub and  Fairfax this year. The industry will start demanding direct funding from NZ on Air or some type of media tax on Facebook and Google. The Government is unlikely to have any courage to do the latter but will push NZ on Air to do more within existing budgets. Paywalls will spring up on the Herald (their desperate attempt to profile their journalists so that you personally bond enough with them to pay for their work would be laughable if it weren’t so desperate). The Herald will lose an enormous amount of political power by going behind a paywall and an explosion of knee jerk echo chamber home grown media utilising Facebook will spring up to replace the short comings of the mainstream. Expect more bullshit social media fights masquerading as news stories with no name attached to start becoming the headline leads on whatever is left on Stuff and Herald.

Fake news will grow and be politically manipulated and motivated in nature. Look at the 2018 rumours against Clarke Gayford, the madness of the anti-1080 brigade and the misplaced absurdities around the signing up to a none binding UN agreement on migration. 2019 will see much more of this as the mainstream media influence wanes. Our public debate will become a screaming match between fools and dogma acolytes, sadly in a world of Millennial culture micro-aggression policing,  the narcissism of misinterpreting disagreement for persecution is what makes social media so worthless.

 

Suicide rate, inequality & homelessness to increase
The grim reality is sweet fuck all has actually changed with the change of Government. The same neoliberal acolytes run the public service and it’s still staffed by people who act like petty tyrants. All welfare agencies remain toxic, the poor do everything in their power to avoid any Government agency and grotesque underfunding of public services means the poor simply slip further and further behind. Our suicide rates will continue to soar as nothing happens in mental health, inequality will rise as WINZ are still hateful and homelessness will grow because Kiwibuild will be a failure and Housing NZ managed to cause enormous damage with their meth hysteria and no one was held accountable.

 

Shane Jones grows power base
The Jonesy will continue building his power base so that he has a reasonable shot at taking Northalnd in 2020.

 

Immigration from Australia soars
As climate change turns Australia into an inhabitable furnace, we will begin to see the next great migration as Australians flee their sun burnt hell hole. The enormity of this reality will force New Zealanders to think about shutting down the open door migration policy between the two countries as the bleakness of the future bakes in an immigration rate our local population won’t be able to ever adjust to.

 

Jacinda’s main challenge in Government
The reality will be dawning upon Jacinda that none of her politics of kindness means a thing when the public service is as toxic and unaccountable as it is. She can flash wonderful smiles but it doesn’t stop that WINZ worker gleefully cutting off a welfare cheque, or MSD spying on sexual assault victims or a Corrections Officer double bunking sex offenders with vulnerable prisoners. The cultures of these public services are poisoned to the core and the neoliberal Wellington bureaucratic elites know they just have to wait it out before National are back in charge again. Only an immense shock can give Jacinda the capital to purge and rebuild the public service.

 

Conclusion:
To counter social injustice effectively in 2019 we don’t need more decent people becoming woke activists, we need more woke activists becoming decent people.

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42 Comments

  1. Richard says:

    Commentator predicts his views will soon be reinforced by facts.

  2. Trevor Sennitt says:

    Over the next year the 3 legged stool will get more unsteady as the Greens realise they have sold their soul and NZ First voters will turn their back on a party that is allowing drugs to flow freely. The gloss will start to fade on Jacinda’s star as the economy worsens and those who thought they were in for a pay rise get promises but no action as they play for time.

    • Sam Sam says:

      Look at ththe damage John Key did in only 8 years. That kind of damage takes much longer to fix, to the extent that it can be fixed. Took us 20 years to payback Muldoons measly one billion dollars. Take us a heck of a lot longer to pay back 60 billion. That’s the period of underfunding that proceeds privatisation, once sold it remains private.

      Which we all suddenly cared about in January 2008, after years of not caring about it. Before that, under Clark, the deficit was approaching zero.

      Clearly there was some mysterious event which transpired between Clark and Key. We may never know what.

      • mike says:

        matrin north from Australian company digital finance analytics in starting the cover the NZ property market as well bloody interesting and very disturbing channel its a must see
        https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKWDscRjYFTD1KHsmow4-bQ/videos
        its not 60 billion its much worse

        • Sam Sam says:

          Yeah, well, there’s the additional impact of the Chinese U.S trade war on us that echoes the Australian banks thought. The big four Aussie/NZ banks have been a disaster, one of the main issues of this mini down turn is the performance of the construction industry to meet ridiculously high prices. With China we really need to things to happen, some acknowledgment from the reserve bank that rates dont reflective new concerns over global growth and what the impact would be on NZ growth, stocks and business. And another thing we need from the reserve bank is some peace from this trade war. So, G20, Xi Jing Pings team sits down with Trumps team and het presto, there’s a 90 day truce. So the market came in bullish on this news in December 1st or what ever, so the market came in bullish on Monday on news there was a truce then on Tuesday all the gains got wiped out because trump had been tweeting the night before. So we need more constructive support/language around the U.S and China deals, and our deals with China and New Zealand.

          So we need to support China because there economy is slowing. The Chinese has a one party communist system so they’re dependant on the capitalist system for investing confidence and business activity to work. That’s the contract they have with a very large population. So I’d put a perspective on that with all Chinese, U.S and NZ leaders need some sort of deal. Whether it’s a comprehensive deal with Australia I think each side should be looking for away out of hard confrontations.

      • lloyd says:

        Get it right the deficit when piggy left was 750 million..with a number of think bigs about to make profits till douglas flogged them off for a pittance not because he was stupid but because he was NZs laziest ever finance minister working towards a ministry that had nothing to do except for him to speak at gatherings that paid him in free meals and booze

        • stefan broca says:

          Which childrens book did you get that figure from? I understand the obsession to defend the indefensible in NZ.. Every generation has a large proportion of the colonials descendants utterly devoted to glorifying Britains rape and pillage of yet another sovereign state for profit…
          I would counsel a few minutes spent doing some quick, and basic research would help you to avoid sounding like a tory drone with a bad case of cognitive dissonance….

          Btw, even Stuff.co have realised that they lose credibility by publishing easily debunked propaganda.. They try to be subtle about it at least…

    • bert says:

      Speaking of promises…”I will NOT raise GST” John Key.

      Look, the reality is that most were fucked over by National,Act, United Future and the Maori party. The reality is that it cost United Future and the Maori Party their political lives and ACT is only there because, well everyone knows why. So now there is only National and no other party, they are no longer relevant with their outdated far right wing policies. The trickle down effect has long been debunked and investing in business ONLY will not succeed.

      I have had my first pay rise since 2012, 9%, so don’t espouse such idiotic nonsense on this post. As for drugs running freely, what bullshit!

  3. Nitrium Nitrium says:

    Good on you for semi sticking your neck out for predictions! Everyone loves these sort of lists, but the world has become so unpredictable they are almost always wrong.
    I think a lot of it won’t be anywhere as bad, especially climate change and China relations, but like you I also feel the stock market is looking very precarious – and given exactly nothing was fixed by Obama in 2009 (in fact he allowed Bernanke and Yellon to double down on increasing systemic risk via their policies and personally championed the fiscally unsustainable “Obamacare”), the potential for a market meltdown worse than 2008 is imo definitely there.
    Also agree that the “plague of wokists” (a new term I just invented) that descends on anything and everything where identity politics and social justice can be inserted will continue unabated, but with increasing push back from normal people. The “Oppression Olympics”, where every marginalised group is convinced they are the most discriminated against, will continue to feed on each other while we look on and wonder what the fuck they’re on about. Support from regular people (i.e. those that have common sense) will continue to slide.
    Anyway, try and remember your list for the end of the year, so you can see how much of it came true.

  4. David Stone says:

    Happy new year Martyn et al.
    I’ve commented that I have no expectation about humans doing anything adequate to avert climate change, as in reduce carbon emissions, but over the holiday I’ve looked up some stuff on the background. Lots of incompatible assertions, but there are questions.
    I got curious about if the CO2 levels have been higher. Yes. a long time ago but life was abundant on earth. and much much higher; and the temperature was about the same as now.
    So has it been hotter than now? Yes considerably, and only 1300 years ago, and the CO2 levels were a bit under 3% like most of the last hundreds of thousands of years. And the climate has never been constant, except that it is always in a constant state of flux that it seems to be agreed has always up till now been precipitated by the earth’s orbit and isolations.
    So have high co2 levels caused global warming in the past? The level rises and falls with temperature but has always up till now lagged behind temperature on the way up and on the way down. The ocean captures more CO2 when it is cold and slowly releases it when it gets warmer.
    Though I have yet to find it discussed by sites concerned about CO2 emissions, Sceptics claim that the extreme temperature rise predictions do not depend on the effect of CO2 alone,but extrapolate that increased CO2 will result in much more water vapour being held in the atmosphere , which is a much more effective green house gas than CO2. But it stays in the atmosphere for much less time. This multiplier is debated.
    This would seem to be the first time warming has been caused by Co2 increase. Volcanism has been suggested as a cause of the world coming out of deep ice age colds, snowball earth, by producing masses of Co2, but there doesn’t seem to be any record from ice cores that show extreme co2 rises at times of super volcanic eruptions, not Taupo around 26000 years ago or even Toba 75000 years ago which was about 5 times the size.
    We are sending carbon into the atmosphere over a few hundred years that has been sequestered over millions so it seem logical that it could make a difference but it will be interesting if it starts to get cooler in spite of it in a few years in line with expectations from the multitude of other factors.
    D J S

    • Mjolnir says:

      All those examples if prehistoric CO2 rises tiok place over millensia, David. The difference now is that the rise in CO2 and consequential rises in temperature, ice melts, and sea level rises, have occurred overr the last HALF CENTURY.

      even you have to admit that the increase in CO2/temperature can’t be a coincidence with the recent (geologically speaking) build up of human industrialisation and corporatised agri-businesses. Think, man, think!!

      • David Stone says:

        Hi Mjolnir
        In my last sentence I “think” I made your point that the release by us of CO2 over a few hundred years, and mostly as you say in the past 50,that has been collected by the earth over many hundreds of thousands can hardly be expected to have no effect.
        I have just started to get curious about how much effect that should be expected to have , and what the history is . I am not a committed denier at all.
        But I looked into the question of the relationship with water vapour’s contribution a bit more, and it does seem that everyone agrees that WV contributes about 95% of greenhouse gas, and CO2 about4%. And it is indeed assumed that increased WV because of CO2’s small effect of warming, causing more evaporation, will multiply the warming effect of CO2 by about three times.
        I have a problem with this because if WV is such an effective GHG, and every increase in temperature increases the water evaporation , why is’t it feeding itself to runaway warming , with no contribution from CO2 at all?
        The answer must be that other factors take over to limit WV’s own effect on itself, like radiation from the earth’s surface increasing with temperature rise by a factor to the fourth power, and increased cloud cover reflecting more light, and whatever else comes into it to limit WV’s effect running away with itself. So it has to be an interruption to these limiting effects that would come into play to allow warming, not at the bottom end. You have to establish that whatever is stopping it getting hotter and hotter at 3PPM CO2 will no longer operate the same at 4PPM or5. Fair enough if it was the only GHG, but essentially as a tiny stimulus to WV’s effect I don’t see it.
        Cheers D J S … just thinking

      • Nitrium Nitrium says:

        Almost certainly nonsense. Ancient temperature and CO2 data doesn’t have even close to the resolution of that collected over the last thousand years. You can’t remotely claim that rapid spikes have never occurred before now since no geological record (which have a low resolution of at best thousands of years) would be able to show it. Indeed it highly likely that far more rapid spikes of CO2 must have occurred during major volcanic eruptions (e.g. the Yellowstone caldera).

        • Mjolnir says:

          “more rapid spikes of CO2 must have occurred during major volcanic eruptions (e.g. the Yellowstone caldera).”

          That’s right Nitrium. Rapid spikes lead to increaded CO2 and higher temperatures. Just like the CURRENT RAPID SPIKE IN CO2 AND TEMPERATURE CAUSED BY HUMAN ACTIVITY.

          You finally got it.

          • David Stone says:

            There is no record of CO2 increase causing temperature rise in previous variations. CO2 increase has always lagged behind temperature rise until now as far as ancient events can be assessed.
            The theory is that as cold water holds more CO2 in solution, the colder it gets the less stays/escapes into the atmosphere. Then as it warms again that CO2 is released, amplifying the warming effect, but not in the past initiating it.
            I have a sense that the scientists will eventually come to the conclusion that deforestation is having a greater effect on warming than fossil fuel emissions.
            D J S

  5. mike says:

    martin north from Australian research company digital finance analytics is starting to cover the NZ property market /debt distress as well bloody interesting and very disturbing channel purely statistics/facts and scary its a must see there asking everyone to get the story out there main stream median aren’t reporting the really story
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKWDscRjYFTD1KHsmow4-bQ/videos

  6. mike says:

    kiwi build will contract in European /American home builders with local partners to set up factory built homes with automation at its core we are 30 years behind and kiwi build will be catch up our current construction industry is a scam that needs to be side lined

  7. jay12 says:

    very interesting interview on climate change.

    http://archive.kmudfm.org/archive/index.php

    click on environmental show Jan the 1st

  8. saveNZ says:

    Speaking of Granny herald, they seem to have given up most NZ content already, and buy/steal/promote overseas stories and probably (paid) lobbyists as content.

    I can’t see anyone caring if they come or go apart from the media types who are their only readers and retired people who take up the free offers because who would paid for their papers these days?

    Probably Granny will try to get some corporate welfare though at some pretence their demise was not their own fault. Such as their ‘strategy’ of becoming a niche National party rag and mouth piece of paid lobbyists writing flawed business focused content while making redundant any journalists falling outside of far right ideology.

    They and the rest of the MSM deserve to go down in flames for their own stupidity likewise the Greedies at Sky TV who have been ripping off people for years and providing worse and worse content and higher pricing while promoting horrible tech and viewing experiences.

  9. saveNZ says:

    On housing, it is not looking good. Will the thought of ‘collapse’ of the property Ponzi fuel more lobbyists to lobby for loosening immigration even more, just like the Natz after the GFC to make sure that they keep their new best friends and construction buddies in the clover under labour and over priced construction of house prices sky high?

    Just like the tax payers had to subsidise the rich but risky financial industry….https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12185226

    Can it finally come home to the politicians who are deeply out of touch that many Kiwi citizens don’t wan’t to or can’t afford to live in a one bedroom $500,000 ‘affordable’ apartment, that the woke lefties seem to be dreaming of? https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/five-kiwibuild-homes-fail-to-sell-through-the-ballot-35722

    (A one bedroom that the mortgage will cost approx $677 p/w) the Kiwibuild house in Onehunga will take a 45 minute journey on public transport into the city (1.5 hours commute daily) and with the body corporate costs approx $30 p/w, insurance costs approx $25 p/w, rates approx $40 p/w and transport costs approx $50 p/w and not suitable for children. In the face of these types of costs the entire Kiwibuild is a cruel joke to keep developers afloat with free land and over priced construction continuing, and only catering to a certain subset of people to help on $100,000+ who are not the most needy.

    Look at the businesses that benefit from construction, banks, insurance, councils… the problem is that so many of the public’s taxes are being used to profit for the same businesses… Shelter which is what housing should be about, seems absent in the equation.

    Like other countries NZ has created a speculative property bubble fuelled by government spending, bad planning and immigration policy that does not address local conditions aka poor wages and job insecurity and poorly thought out planning with high congestion, poor public transport, a rampant council clawing fees wherever they can from rate payers with high wealth programs like cruise ships, marinas and luxury stadiums being considered beneficial in politicians eyes with the local home owners picking up the bills from tourism and immigration, in particular for the increased pollution the rampant ill thought out building boom and lazy tourism is creating.

    A boom that is creating houses that are not suitable for the people who live in the country on the wages they earn with the lifestyle they have aka children.

    There are many issues that are not being considered important in housing such as the quality of housing, the right type of housing or where it should be located or who pays for the infrastructure for the developments.

    Auckland tower builder slammed over cracked Sydney apartments
    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/auckland-tower-builder-slammed-over-cracked-sydney-apartments-opal-tower-35807

    Empty Homes and Protests: China’s Property Market Strains the World
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/30/business/china-economy-property.html

    Australia’s house price bloodbath
    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/australias-house-price-bloodbath-35810

    As Market Cools, Median Price for Manhattan Apartment Drops Below $1 Million

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/03/nyregion/manhattan-real-estate-market.html

    (One has to ask why should people in NZ and China be paying 1 million for a 2 bedroom apartment, a similar price to New York, and our government Kiwibuild is touting $500k for a 1 bedroom, approx 1.5 hours commute from CBD)

    • mike says:

      savenz this u tube channel from digital fiance analytics covers that topic in depth i mean they really dig deep https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKWDscRjYFTD1KHsmow4-bQ/videos

      • Save NZ says:

        Thanks Mike, really interesting that even the migrants (judging by the British accent in the video) are trying to warn NZ what is really going on with housing here, because the MSM, Auckland council and government and by the extension, policy decisions seem clueless and it’s feeding some sort of fake news of housing and land shortages and supply issues when the issue is not that but investment in speculative housing that many people can’t afford to or don’t want to, buy.

        There are houses and land being built aplenty, what is missing is the well paid jobs and salaries to afford them and the idea that teleportation is a live and well to get people about in NZ! sarcasm.

        Developers could build thousands of houses (and are) but they are mostly building them for people coming to NZ with money who can afford circa 1 million dollars, NOT to house 35%+ kiwis and a growing number of working poor who can’t afford basic housing, power, transport or food on NZ wages or incomes.

        We are now getting middle to rich housing ghettos where soon, you are not going to ever see a poor or working class waged person because the poor will have been displaced somewhere else.

        The housing solutions being sought by government is making it worse for a significant amount of Kiwi workers and businesses, because they are the ones apparently being targeted for more taxes aka petrol taxes, less affordable houses being bowled or renovated close to the cities and housing policy extending their commutes…

        Even if the government and councils do decide to eventually put in public transport to these new housing estates, again the fairness issue when the existing families in Auckland paying rates for decades STILL have no decent public transport for a lot of Auckland.

        Meanwhile the ‘new million dollar estates’ which are seemingly aimed at Satellite families and new migrants with money get the new transport and the developers benefit from that with ability to charge higher prices for their land and houses, all paid for by the existing rate payers who still have little to no and very SLOW public transport for a lot of Auckland???? The priority is wrong!

        Auckland council planners egged on by Auckland council management are told to just consent anything without worrying about transport links, congestion and costs of wastewater and pollution which under our planning laws are supposed to be sorted BEFORE any new speculative estates are built and are not allowed to impact existing housing and pollution beyond a less than minor level.

        Clearly allowing so many housing estates with one road in and out to Auckland city is going not only to impact the near housing, but the entire traffic flow, air and water quality and businesses of that entire region who use the same travel path!

        NZ is gearing to have a nation of rich, retired folks and satellite families who pay little no taxes and in fact qualify for welfare, and existing Kiwis workers taxes are being stolen to fund infrastructure for those lifestyles.

        Now we have migrants getting residency and then sponsoring other migrants to come in some sort of knock on effects of poor legislation here. From jailed Sroubek sponsoring his Russian wife with a ‘job’ to a marriage within 11 days from the marriage of a Chinese man, 60, who met the widowed New Zealand citizen 79, who herself came from China two decades ago to join her children. https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/376220/10k-11-days-and-one-failed-deportation

        And the property taxes being touted will do nothing because they are about not taxing the family home – even if that family home is 1 million to 30 million plus…

        …also the next reaction is to tax empty homes, issue is, most of the homes will be eventually occupied by relatives, retirees’ satellite families and domestic staff…

        As the video commentator has said the building looks unregulated. The problem is that it is actually green lighted by Auckland council in cahoots with Auckland Transport who basically are ignoring planning laws about ensuring traffic flows and effects before consents!

        We are entering a cuckoo situation… NZ people killing themselves with work to prop up developers, banks and construction interests and the above examples of migrants who have paid pathetic if any amounts of taxes while requiring Kiwis taxpayers to pay hundreds of thousands for their jail time and the health care and retirement for their love interests .

        Immigration is mostly a good thing in moderation. What is happening in NZ is more a cuckoo situation not well planned immigration of skilled people who can offer the country a lot.

        Instead they are using immigration for the opposite effects here which is why when the government seems so keen to grant in jail criminals residency or give a wet slap of the wrist to immigration, marriage and work scams, and seem powerless to deport people, people see red!

        Surely fixing the cuckoo issue, should have been the priority of the Labour, NZ First and Green government in the first 100 days?

      • saveNZ says:

        @ Mike, with regards to your great link and the video, you also have to wonder why the developer was allowed to put in the roads without cycle and scooter lanes??? Again the rate payers will be expected to retrofit them at some stage.

        Likewise where is the community feel, a park, place for children to play, shops or what have you in the planning?

        • mike says:

          a lot of whats been going on is a scam land shortage housing shortage i think joe wilks covered that in why planning is necessary in a good development what has been built is a big scam to flog off site unseen to speculators who are really going to take a bath
          young nz shouldn’t touch them with barge pole a major correction isn’t far off and those homes wouldnt even last as long as the mortgage wait for kiwi built home built and developed to a government specification
          in areas with schools shops public transport in real community

  10. Peter says:

    Shane Jones won’t build his power base to the extent he can take Northland because many of the voters are as thick as their MP.

    • Brokenback says:

      NZF re-taking Northland is TOTALLY dependent on an “accommadation ‘ deal with Labour.

      The tried and true donkey Blue vote in Northland won’t change , Winston’s loss of the seat was directly attributable to the gain in vote for the very capable Willow-Jean Prime.

  11. Mjolnir says:

    ” A category 6 Hurricane that decimates an economy or a heat wave that kills tens of thousands could shake a complacent political establishment out of their apathy.”

    Yeah nah.

    Complecency resumed six months after such a disaster. The human capacity to avoid facing a problem and opt for a comforting lie (religion anyone?) should never be under estimated.

  12. Siobhan says:

    My advice is to not listen to the Vice opinion of current Socialism.
    I mean they are hardly going to be selling the idea are they?.
    Its like reading the Guardian and deciding Corbyn couldn’t possibly take the leadership of the Labour Party.
    Or supporting the UBI because a bunch of silicon valley entrepreneurs and international tax dodgers like it.

  13. Janio says:

    Bomber, you use ‘woke left’ so often you appear to be entranced with it, yet what does it mean? You seem to think “wonky left’ and predict it will diminish the left overall. Don’t worry, the concerns you attribute to woke lefties enlighten debate in a way your constant/tedious harping of Marama Davidson dulls debate.

  14. sean kearney says:

    What about the toxic fall out from the CP-TPP as the ugly reality of what it represents and means starts to hit home?

    As to Labour I suspect they will slide toward irrelevance this year. They don’t have the numbers on their own and their support of the CP-TPP I suspect will have a bad impact on their partner parties. Why? Because people realise they can’t function without a bigger partner but with Labour backing the neo liberal model like National they may see no point in voting at all.

    • Sam Sam says:

      Wasn’t until my grandfather came over to Australia recently for a visit. It was his round and he came back flabbergasted. $10 he said, yup I replied, $10 per pint.

      Funny story: Always told me he never did the economic part. Believed that there’s a beginning, middle and end. So o replied that in economics there’s always at least 5 hierarchies.

      Anyway, another nail in the coffin against the modern version of prodosant work ethic (more specifically, using said version to claim that poor people deserve to be poor or simply need to work harder) it seems.

  15. China strikes back… Expect trade to suddenly get rocked by import troubles

    We got a taste of this a few years ago. China flexed it’s political/trade muscle over a Taiwan FTA we were negotiating, and New Zealand caved to Beijing. The curious thing is that aside from a brief story on TV3 in June 2013, the whole thing went totally under the “media radar”;

    https://fmacskasy.wordpress.com/2013/06/20/whats-the-beef-guv/

    • Mjolnir says:

      Damn, that was quite a read Frank!! I never heard of that incident so I’m guessing MFAT managed an effective cover-up of Clyde Dam proportions!! Your assessment would have to be correct, there’s no other credible explanation to explain what took place!!

  16. countryboy says:

    “Goff’s loss will scare the bejesus out of Labour.”
    What…? Why !?
    Are you on P @ MB ? Everyone else is, so it would seem.
    goff is entirely far right. We all know that. So why would goff losing the mayoralty of the thieving, financial logical fallacy that is Auckland freak out labour?
    labour, as it is, wouldn’t give a fuck who lost what to whom for whatever reason so long as they, labour, were grifting us tax payers of $ix figure$ plu$ entitlement$. That’s why labour won’t go near the psa. No one wants to rock that boat load of rogernomics refugees lest they spill the beans.
    Your 2019 pessimism could be wiped off the slate in seconds by glittering adern if adern was genuine. And if adern was, in fact, genuine? There’d be cars overturned, sirens would be howling, banks would be burning and dead politician fuckers would be swinging about off lamp posts.
    You do remember the last couple of years of labour in ‘power’ right?
    You have seen what’s been happening, right? In case not…
    Nothing. Nothing’s happened.
    adern’s smiling apparitions are like a she-jonky after a cheap tooth job in Thailand.
    Like it or not ( And I can’t believe I’m about to write this. ) but trump, or drumph, for those who’re sticklers for accuracy has, indeed, drained the swamp of the politics of the United Sociopaths of America. He’s drained himself in the process but hey? Have foot. Will shoot.
    In Nu Zillind? We have just another pretty duck floating about on the shit pond that’s our political swamp.
    The truly bizarre and deeply worrying thing for me is that I seem to be the only one who sees that other reality. It means I’m either mad, arrogant to a degree not yet visited by mike hosking, been ‘living in my own lounge’ for far too long or worst of all; correct.
    Our politicians are grifting, lying, deviant, criminal scum. Our primary industry is in rags and tatters and now that we have local cowsploitation on a global scale, the mealy mouthed and beige Left, with their flabby little forearms, their sanctimonious opinions and brain-fart values have bullets to shoot, and some of them hit family farmers who knew their lands like the backs of their work worn hands but who were dropped over board to the bankster sharks waiting in the shallows by their own people. And it’s pretty fucking shallow out there in Swamp Lefty-Greenie so the sharks must be flat and sneaky like all good bottom feeders must be.
    My pessimistic prediction for 2019 is that you lot will remain as completely fucking dumb as you clearly are right now.
    You Kiwi 99% ? You’re being fucked. And not in that good way.
    And how do I know that? Because our politicians are not behaving in a way that’d be considered in our best interests. That’s how, dumbasses.
    Here’s a thing or two.
    Watch ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’ again. I worked with, and met Margo Robbie once. She’s quite something else. A true blue Aussie farm female-human and a genuine non gender biased sweetie.
    Jordan Belfort? The actual Wolf of Wall Street. Some of you may have met him when he came to Auckland in 2013/14.
    To quote Stuff.com
    “The Auckland-based final scene of Oscar-tipped movie Wolf [on] Wall St has outraged the US federal prosecutor who sent the real wolf to jail for fraud.
    The movie, which has courted infamy with its 544 f-words and countless naked women, finishes in Auckland with convicted fraudster Jordan Belfort, played by Leonardo DiCaprio, showing an audience how to sell a pen.
    The final scene, rather than some imagined fiction in a faraway land, is based on real events: Belfort was in Auckland last year and dozens paid $500 to listen to him speak and some bought his 10-CD, 10-DVD motivational package Straight Line Sales and Persuasion System for $2400.”
    Now. Read this. If you dare.
    Just in case you’ve ended up with a terrifying mortgage, a shiny black V8 root mobile you didn’t need and a $20k watch and you really don’t understand why you went so crazy at the time.
    This, is why. You have been warned.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/31/advertising-academia-controlling-thoughts-universities

    Another good read. For a giggle.
    Kiwi-as.
    https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/379483/kiwi-among-ex-credit-suisse-bankers-in-3-billion-loan-scandal

    My point is; not one single little squeak out of our all-bought-and-paid-for politicians in our defence.
    Not for many years. Not since Norman Kirk, would be my recollection.
    Our politicians are supposed to protect us from swamp scum but instead? They ARE swamp scum.
    “Lets do this” ? What? What are you doing? I voted for you to do ‘it’. What have you done? Please define ‘it’ for me? Because ‘it’ all looks a bit fucking scary!

    • The Daily Blog Martyn says:

      It would scare Labour because last week Labour came out and endorsed Goff as their candidate

      • saveNZ says:

        If a credible centre left candidate comes out against Goff, I think they might have a good chance…. Centre left candidates are popular for Auckland mayor.

        Goff is for big business, tourists and construction only and more taxes to ordinary rate payers to subsidise it all… the only reason he got in, is because he was the preferred right wing candidate all along, that is why they ran 2 right wing candidates against him, thus splitting the right votes and allowing him to win. That, the Chinese money and the tiny amount of people voting also had a lot to do with it due to the general disgust as the quality of the candidates. .

  17. Denny Paoa says:

    The death of the Gween party! Hehe!

    • Mike the Lefty says:

      Yes, we have to remember that Goff was part of the fourth Labour government along with the traitorous Douglas, Prebble, Caygill, Moore et al.
      Whilst he may have been slightly less enthusiastic at dismantling New Zealand society than others of the wolf pack he nonetheless went along with most of it.
      Labour endorsing Goff smacks of jobs for the boys political expediency, which is what we expect from a bunch of corrupt pricks like National.
      When we see this kind of crap, it certainly is a strong argument for those who see Labour as simply a lighter shade of blue.

  18. mosa says:

    If there was a real center left party with a charismatic leader who can be heard and articulate a way out of this neo liberal totalitarianism standing in 2020 i will vote for it and assist where necessary.
    There really is nobody filling this void.
    We need a coalition partner who will not back away from its principles and stands firm.
    There are a lot of voices out there that are not being heard or given hope that it must and will be better.
    Union always used to mean strength and solidarity and it got results which is why it was legally destroyed and wiped out.
    We have seen what happens when the ” market ” is left to govern us and its time is up.
    The government has changed but not the rotten corrupt system underpinning it.