WHAT DOES NZ FIRST WANT? More than anything else, NZ First and its leader, Winston Peters, would like to reconstruct the New Zealand economy of the 1950s and 60s. Given that these were years of extraordinary economic and social progress, during which more and more New Zealanders were lifted into relative affluence, and the country’s infrastructure (especially its hydro-electric energy generation capacity) expanded dramatically, NZ First’s desire to replicate this success is commendable. But, is it possible? In a world so very different from the one that emerged from World War II, is it reasonable to suppose that the remedies of ‘Then’ are applicable – or even available – ‘Now’?
At the end of World War II the United States of America stood completely unchallenged: militarily, economically and culturally it was without peer. The American mainland remained untouched by the fascist enemy; its factories were geared to levels of production without parallel in human history; and the sophistication of its science, which had bequeathed to the world both cheap antibiotics and the atomic bomb, promised a future of unbounded promise – and unprecedented peril.
Accounting for half the world’s production and nearly two-thirds of its wealth, the United States nevertheless faced a problem. If the rest of humanity was not to slide into the most wretched poverty and, once again, fall prey to the purveyors of extreme political ideologies, then it would have to be given the wherewithal to lift itself up into prosperity. Except that, when the Americans spoke of humanity, they were not really thinking of the human-beings who lived in the Soviet Union, or civil-war-ravaged China, or in the vast continent of Africa. It was in the rehabilitation of the peoples of Europe, South America and Australasia that the USA was most interested.
New Zealand, also materially unscathed by the ravages of war, was ideally positioned to benefit from the Americans’ self-interested altruism. The United Kingdom constituted an insatiable market for this country’s agricultural products, and the United States made sure its enfeebled British ally received sufficient cash to go on buying (among other things) all the butter, cheese, lamb and wool New Zealand could send it. It was an arrangement which very quickly transformed New Zealand into one of the wealthiest nations on earth.
Sixty-five years on from the fat 1950s, however, the world is a very different place. Europe and Japan rebuilt themselves, and the USA’s effortless hegemony became harder and harder to sustain. In lifting its own people, and much of the rest of the world, out of poverty, American capitalism had facilitated the rise of powerful working-classes in all the major Western nation-states. They had created increasingly self-conscious and militant labour movements which, if not tamed would soon be in a position to transition their societies out of capitalism and into a new, post-capitalist, form of economic and social organisation.
The world currently inhabited by New Zealanders reflects the self-defensive policies set in motion by the ruling classes of the leading capitalist nations in the mid-to-late 1970s – the period of Capitalism’s maximum danger. Perhaps the most important of these policies involved the integration of the populations of the Soviet Union and China into what was intended to become, as soon as they were brought safely under its influence, a truly global capitalist economy. Against such a massive expansion in the supply of cheap labour, the working-classes of the West stood no chance. The golden age of post-war social-democracy – the age which Winston Peters and NZ First would so like to re-create – was at an end.
Or was it? The development by the Chinese Communist Party of “Socialism – with Chinese [i.e. capitalist] characteristics”, following the death of Mao Zedong, not only assisted China’s integration into the global capitalist economy, but unleashed pent-up forces of commercial dynamism which, in the space of just 40 years, transformed China into an economic behemoth. It is now China which offers New Zealand an insatiable market for its agricultural products. Indeed, so constant is the demand for our exports that the same level of state-sponsored economic and social uplift that characterised New Zealand in the 1950s and 60s has, once again, become a possibility. But only under Chinese hegemony.
What Winston Peters and his party now have to decide is whether becoming an economic, political and cultural colony of the People’s Republic of China is what they had in mind when they proclaimed their goal of putting New Zealand first.
Only turning NZ into a highly productive, smart and sustainable economy, catering for top range products and services, whether agricultural, IT based or else, can ensure this country a future with high enough living standards.
If we continue more of the same, expanding quantity output, and lagging behind in smartness, productivity and sustainable economic and environmental performance, we will merely compete with the further ran economies, such as Chile, Argentina, South Africa and the likes, who also produce much of the same agricultural, horticultural, viticultural and tourism products and services, at lower labour and other costs.
Therein lies the challenge, as merely serving China, and some other developed, larger economies by providing what they choose to consume, or make more from, that will not be enough.
By the way, most NZers live well beyond their means, live in complete ignorance of what the realities are, economically and also environmentally and socially. It is only the growth of population, increasingly through immigration, that seems to actually ‘grow’ the economy, including home values, which enables them to ‘afford’ running two car households, all the gadgets and conveniences and some luxuries the middle class can still somehow treat themselves with.
It is still largely fossil fuel and waste and pollute based, what happens here, parents think they have a right to treat their school kids with skiing or island holidays, and drive them everywhere, to shop until they drop. NZ is way behind in what needs doing and changing.
But NZ First are not the party that can deliver much on any of these challenges for the future.
People here, they do in their majority have their heads stuck deep into the sand, reluctant to really change, to pay the price and make any real sacrifice. Abolishing plastic bags is celebrated as a great step forward, but the masses keep driving and polluting, and believe one day electric cars will be as affordable and easy to run, as fossil ones. That is yet to be seen, so far the technology is not quite there yet, and where will all the extra electricity come from?
I was born in Auckland on the day the “Allies liberated Paris” 25th August 1944.
I grew up under these tyears and served both as a apprentice electrician and at the end went into the Army as a conscipt in the national serive” era.
After this I went to work in turangi for the Ministry of Works for four years, so yes these were “years of extraordinary economic and social progress”
I still believe we need to complete our flagging ‘infrustructure’, as we look at a half functioning ‘rail system’ where the famed “eastern railway” project napier along the east coast to auckland throug the bay of plenty that was planned during 1890s and 1911 to 1939 then shelved and never to be completed.
Then as of now when we desperately need the rail to move our freight now that the roads are ‘gridlocked with trucks’ and are just ‘killing fields’ for other drivers now, sady that we will have this year accoding to tranport experts “the record road deaths of all time”.
Just common sense is it not to ove at least half of those trucks off our roads and onto rail?
The roads are falling apart and dying with potholes everwhere and are also developing deep ridges alomg them that now fill up with rainwater and cars actually loose control as they slide in these ‘road rivers’ now.
Good article Chris top marks.
“NZ First and its leader, Winston Peters, would like to reconstruct the New Zealand economy of the 1950s and 60s. Given that these were years of extraordinary economic and social progress, during which more and more New Zealanders were lifted into relative affluence, and the country’s infrastructure (especially its hydro-electric energy generation capacity) expanded dramatically, NZ First’s desire to replicate this success is commendable.”
100%. And, given the latest pollution and climate change stats for NZ, there’s even more reason to get these trucks off the roads. Allow them to travel by road only to or from their place of pickup to the nearest railhead.
Wake up, Chris. No Zealand IS a colony of the largest dictatorship on the planet. High time for NZ Wars II.
I’m not sure that Chinese hegemony is the only game in town. The UK and Europe might eventually be available, as may other markets if we make bilateral deals our top priority, along with support for added-value research.
But I certainly take the point that the desire, if that is truly the NZF vision, to roll back to some mythical golden age, is as misplaced as it is unrealistic.
That does not say that certain characteristics of those days might not be usefully adopted.
Maybe a governmental push to encourage unionism, or the investigation of free dental assessments, or efforts to promote inter-class interaction, or clean rivers and so on, are by no means outmoded or to be rejected out of hand. However, all these projects require a successful economy. So, add value!
But adding value to output is easier said than done.
I saw Putin a few months ago cajoling his people to add value to their exports. It is a universal cry, no doubt. What is needed is the courage as well as the vision to attempt it.
Niche producers have been successful finding opportunities.
Time for the big player areas: dairy, water, forests and so on to step up and earn the gigantic salaries they believe they are entitled to.
If we are to reverse the damage done by globalization, it may be the only way
If Winston can reduce immigration and land sales to overseas buyers-legend. I can see why he gets grumpy with what the media say about him. Remember he’s been through a lot of stuff-eg winebox enquiry-legend.
Then some upstart reporter takes the piss-no wonder the attitude problem.
Good post Chris – you’ve accurately plotted post war history.
(I would argue though that unionism was simply past it’s sell-by date. Having achieved great things in the first half of the 20th century it appears to have gone from fighting for workers rights to just fighting for the sake of it.)
In so many ways NZ is in a far place than it was in the 50’s and 60’s. Most importantly our economy is far more diverse than it was then. We have our ups and downs but with so many productive sectors, it’s mostly averaged it. Employment isn’t propped up by government fiat yet it is still only 4% and employers are crying out for labour. A friend who is a foreman in a factory is now hiring parolees because they offer more reliability and enthusiasm that the few drop-kicks left on the dole!
Globally we have extinguished a most of the worlds abject poverty and global inequality is falling. Despite the relentless rise in population we are feeding people more and better than ever we have in the history of mankind thanks to science and international trade.
On the whole, life is good – I certainly don’t want to go back to the grey days of the 50’s!
Let us welcome Winston to the friends of progress:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgE11M0tSMM
Better late than never, to fight neoliberalist capitalism, as he referred to in his decision speech tonight, welcome, Winston.
Tangata Whenua de Chile cry for justice:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2XpK7rX4l8
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