What happens if a Labour led Government gets announced?

By   /   October 11, 2017  /   124 Comments

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The new Government will be immediately tested by powerful anti-democratic forces who will move to spook the stock market off the back of this supposed ‘shock’ win by Labour.   

As we get close to crunch time, what happens if there is a Labour led change of Government announced at the end of the week?

The backlash will begin.

The corporate mainstream media have been claiming National have some type of moral claim on forming the Government since election night and if a Labour led change is announced they will begin framing it as a shock result that was completely unexpected (despite NZ First+Green+Labour being the majority on election night and everyone knowing the Specials were going to help Labour and the Greens).

The new Government will be immediately tested by powerful anti-democratic forces who will move to spook the stock market off the back of this supposed ‘shock’ win by Labour.

Once the new Government policy of stopping foreign speculators buying land is announced, there will be pressure from China and Australia to either reverse that decision or face consequences. China could stir domestic anger and we could see large scale protests in Auckland and Australian banks will start threatening mortgage rates going up if they can’t guarantee ownership of the land for their offshore interests.

Once the full impact of building 100 000 new houses while dramatically slashing immigration and banning foreign purchase of land sets in, the property market will drop sharply and the new Government will get blamed for this.

Campaigning for the election and winning the election will be the easy part for Jacinda, facing a hostile political system  that will do everything to limit any real policy change once Governing is the real challenge.

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124 Comments

  1. WILD KATIPO says:

    Yes its going to happen , had to happen , And this is indeed whats needed to have happened.

    It is always rather humorous that these powerful ‘ interests’ can blandly talk of a ‘ correction’ in the economy that affects hundreds of thousands of ordinary peoples lives negatively but when the big dog gets bit back , – it squeals the loudest.

    Bring it on.

    They’ve had it far too good for far too long.

    Judgement day is upon them and they know it.

    • Marc says:

      “The new Government will be immediately tested by powerful anti-democratic forces who will move to spook the stock market off the back of this supposed ‘shock’ win by Labour.”

      Well, for most of us, it may be what we think needs to happen, and which may happen.

      For the forces that actually CONTROL society, due to their economic power, and that is the power of money and capital in general (ownership of land, machinery, some key transport and other infrastructure, ownership of shares in big and not so big businesses, ownership of real estate, and as employers control of a very divided, individual contract bound work force), they will consider a Labour-NZ First-Greens arrangement in government as a disaster for themselves.

      They will use every means, to get that government disabled, to spread disunity, to put wedges between the MPs of the parties that form such a government, they will have their largely privately owned and controlled media start scaring the populace, and they will not need to scare the stock market, as the stock market itself is the playground of the scaremongers.

      This is why I think, it is very unlikely to happen. There will be immense pressure put onto Winston and NZ First behind the scenes already, to tow the line, to reconsider, and to go with the ‘safe pair of hands’ that is National, led by one Bill English, the Double Dipper from Dipton.

      Most here do totally underestimate the powers that be, and seem to have idealistic views and naive hopes, and are also extremely desperate for a change of government, even if Jacinda Ardern will hardly be a Corbynista or the likes.

      That is also, why I consider, should Winston nonetheless go with Jacinda and Labour, with Greens at the leash, in tow, then this will be a one term government only.

      The damned inconvenient truth is, no real change will come without a FIGHT, without real pain, without sacrifice, as all major historic change necessitated. It will take violence and force in some form, to get the change to happen, all else will be so diluted, it will already be poisoned from the beginning, determined to abjectly fail.

      There is no doubt in my mind, that we are simply being sold some illusion, and more lies, by both sides of the political spectrum.

      The Greens will hardly have much say in a NZ First – Labour and Greens government, as Winston does not even want to talk with them, face to face.

      And if NZ First give in on the pressures now piled upon them, not only by the Nats, but by the powers that hold control, then we will only have three years of slightly softened neoliberal light policy, with some restrictions on immigration, some new laws on land and house sales, perhaps working for the dole, some more boot camps, a nationalism drive, like “Kiwis are Proud …” BS, and not much else.

      It will be the last term of Winston, and after that Labour will be so compromised, it will not know whether the party is Arthur or Martha.

      Real change would require a movement, workers to unite, people join together to fight for change, that is not happening, I see NONE of it, it is endless lone fighters, many young too busy with social media and personal career aspirations, and so forth. Most simply accept or resign to the fact, the world is as it is, and are so humble, they celebrate the supermarkets wanting to abolish one way plastic bags. The people are screwed up in their heads, I note.

      The MSM already feed us the nonsense that the housing market is ‘cooling’, not mentioning that we are still at extreme unaffordability levels, they do not even talk about many other problems, as much gets swept under the carpet.

      I am NOT optimistic, no matter what the outcome, sorry folks.

      • Jono says:

        Comrade Marc I think you are right. The only thing the powers that be are scared of is violence against themselves. This would be in the form of civil unrest which we have not seen yet. This kind of action could change things aka revolution as we saw in France.

      • David Stone says:

        I think that’s about right Marc. But I don’t think it will be violence that brings about change though there may well be some in the attempt. Change will come because the system is not only unfair it is unsustainable. Theres nothing the powers that be can do to turn around the ever increasing debt spiral that the banking system has locked us all into. It won’t change until it collapses amid complete chaos and we all start again with a rational system. Try to hold some foldy cash.
        D J S

  2. CLEANGREEN says:

    Yes yes yes Martyn you are so right,

    Anyone with only half a brain can hear/see that the NZ medioa in ALL it’s forms (including RNZ are and have been constantly spiinnning the line that “National ios a strong stable Gopvernment lead by a highly experienced leader!!!!!!!

    The truth is that Bill English has never had a real job!!!!!

    Other than being as a well connected political beltway Wellington swamp slough trougher period!!

    Well said here Martyn.

    “The corporate mainstream media have been claiming National have some type of moral claim on forming the Government since election night and if a Labour led change is announced they will begin framing it as a shock result that was completely unexpected (despite NZ First+Green+Labour being the majority on election night and everyone knowing the Specials were going to help Labour and the Greens).
    The new Government will be immediately tested by powerful anti-democratic forces who will move to spook the stock market off the back of this supposed ‘shock’ win by Labour.”

    • Danyl Strype says:

      “The truth is that Bill English has never had a real job!!!!!”

      Not that it matters, but what “real job” has Winston Peters had? AFAIK your description here…

      “…a well connected political beltway Wellington swamp slough trougher period!!”

      …applies as much to Winston as it does to Bill. No offence meant, but people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.

    • Gosman says:

      Don’t you think being a farmer is a real job?

      • Barry says:

        Yes farming is a real job and receives a lot of governmental and tax payers support.
        I really wish ,as a nation we could move to a Tec economy as a primary agricultural economy is just not enough for a first world economy.

      • Andrea says:

        Well – there’s the land owner – and the farm manager, who are often different beings.

        I’m not sure how often Mr English is absent from parliament so he can see to the running of his property. Or whether it’s one of those ‘family’ things where someone does the grunt work day on day and he claims the honoured title of ‘farmer’.

        Many farmers do have a real job – regardless of the nature of their farming – be it aquaculture, horticulture, pastoral or some combination. And partners slog their wee hearts out off farm so the enterprise stays viable.

        Short answer – yes; farming is a real job.

        Longer answer: I don’t think Mr English is still in that business as a hands-on, worry your guts out farmer. He’s got enough off farm income to rarely be in that miserable state.

        If he succumbs to the usual National party losers execution he’ll land on a full woolsack. Or several well-padded director’s seats.

        So he still won’t have a real job…

        PS It’s great to see you again. I’ve missed your dainty questions.

      • Marc says:

        More like a Queen Street farmer he is, that Bill from Dipton, where he only shows up every now and then, and only picks up the shearing gear for the cameras.

  3. David Stone says:

    I don’t expect pressure from China. They don’t want enemies in trade. They want our dairy produce, and if our government is stupid enough to let them have our farms and infrastructure as well so their continued supply is unassailable then they will gratefully accept. But they will be pragmatic. They know they would not sell their own sovereignty and economic security and will well understand another nation not doing so. IMHO
    D J S

  4. Jan says:

    There will be howls of outrage across New Zealand, as National have the most votes and the most seats overall, more than Labour and the Greens combined, and even under MMP, the losing party in an election has never been put into power. Jacinda would be PM courtesy of Winston rather than the most votes, and there would also be calls for electoral reform, for a system where the winner actually remains the winner. The markets will crash, house prices will collapse even further, farmers will be taxed out of business, as will business, the country will go to the dogs.
    Won’t happen, Winston is an old conservative at heart, he will never put the toxic watermelons into power, he loathes them. National/Winston govt is where my money is!!!!! Otherwise NZ is screwed.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Fear ! Panic ! Run to the hills !!!!

      Winston’s back in town !

      The end of the world is nigh on Friday the 13th !!!

      And somewhere in a small cafe in Dannevirke a person bruised their left elbow !!!

      Panic !

      Fret much !

      Run around and bump into things !

      Put on a cup of tea!

    • Teresa says:

      national troll = bad loser

      • CLEANGREEEN says:

        yes teresa, with National trolls like ‘Gosman and Jan’ we are screwed only in their dreams eh!!!!

        Theybare shiowing stress as their Carreer disapation lights are going out as the reality of a labour/NZF/Greens Government take over and straghten this cuntry out snatching it from the jaws of death from National greed and ruin.

        Halleluyah!!!

      • CLEANGREEN says:

        yes teresa, with National trolls like ‘Gosman and Jan’ we are screwed only in their dreams eh!!!!

        They are showing stress as their Career dissipation lights are going out as the reality of a labour/NZF/Greens Government take over and straighten this country out snatching it from the jaws of death from National greed and ruin.

        Halleluyah!!!

    • Danyl Strype says:

      And here we have it, exactly the set of key messages that Crosby-Textor will be broadcasting on every channel it can. Let’s break them down.

      “There will be howls of outrage across New Zealand”

      This is going to be the case whichever way Winston jumps. After specials were counted, the difference between the Nats vote and the combined Labour-Green vote having the same number of seats was about 5000 party votes. Either way, about a million kiwis are going to feel ripped off. That’s majority-rules government for you.

      “National have the most votes and the most seats overall, more than Labour and the Greens combined, and even under MMP, the losing party in an election has never been put into power.”

      There are 3 facts in here, and 1 lie. The lie is that a party that didn’t get the single largest vote is the “losing party”. What MMP delivers is a winning *coalition*, and any party left out of that party is a “losing party”, even if they did get the single largest vote. If you can’t control 51% of the votes in parliament, you can’t govern. Again, that’s majority-rules government for you.

      “Jacinda would be PM courtesy of Winston rather than the most votes”

      So would Bill. The only time that wouldn’t be the case is it a party got 51% on their own and didn’t need a coalition partner. National didn’t achieve that.

      “there would also be calls for electoral reform”

      This has already happened, and happens every election. So? A majority has voted for MMP over FPP in two binding referenda (1993 and 2011). FPP is not coming back. People who want to change the electoral system until they get their own way, even when they are in the minority, are not very interested in democracy.

      “for a system where the winner actually remains the winner.”

      See above. 2,591,896 votes were cast in 2017 and only 1,152,075 were for National. National did not win a clear majority, and are not “the winner” unless they can convince NZ First to vote with them.

      “The markets will crash”

      Capital flight will probably happen, as it did when the Shipley government collapsed under its own weight and Helen Clark became PM. Despite that, NZ’s economic performance improved considerably under Clark’s government (using the typical neo-liberal measures). Could it be that the departure of predatory capitalists looking to take more out of Aotearoa than they “invest” is actually of benefit to us?

      “house prices will collapse even further”

      There is a housing bubble. This is inevitable whoever becomes the government. For those who live in houses, rather than treating them as financial speculation vehicle, this is good news.

      “farmers will be taxed out of business”

      Yawn. Farmers will pay for some of resources they use and the pollution they emit at a very moderate rate. Those who improve their practices, reducing their resource use and the pollution created, will do better than they do now, because poor practices will no longer be effectively subsidized by the public.

      “as will business”

      Have you walked around the shopping streets in any town or city recently? Seen the number of empty shopfronts? I’ve personally seen a number of innovative small businesses go to the wall in the last couple of years, including a couple of new organic cafes here in Ōtepoti. They can’t afford commercial rents inflated by the property bubble, and people don’t have enough disposable income to shop there, thanks to decades of a casualized, low wage economy. NatACT government has been great for multinational corporations, but terrible for NZ businesses.

      “the country will go to the dogs.”

      Look around. We have working families living in cars. Hundreds of thousands of children growing up in avoidable poverty, while public housing sits empty and edible food gets chucked into rubbish skips. The country went to the dogs a long time ago.

      “Won’t happen, Winston is an old conservative at heart, he will never put the toxic watermelons into power, he loathes them.”

      On social issues, Winston tends to be conservative, for example he voted against the legalization of homosexuality in 1986. The Greens and Labour are social liberals. So what? Votes on social policy issues are almost always conscience votes. Governments are formed mainly to set budgets, and on economic issues, NZ First policy is much closer to the Greens than to Labour, and miles away from National. See:
      https://politicalcompass.org/nz2017

      “National/Winston govt is where my money is!!!!! Otherwise NZ is screwed.”

      More concerned about “my money” than the public good. Typical NatACT voter. Crawl back to your Crosby-Textor masters, and tell them their time is up.

      • WILD KATIPO says:

        Absolutely sterling answer , DANYL STRYPE !!!

        Almost poetic in its lucidity !!!

        Thank you very much because we are really going to need that kind of rebuttal when the Dirty Politics crowd really gets in a rage , … as they are already starting to show signs of doing.

        • CLEANGREEN says:

          100% DANYL STRYPE;

          Couldn’t have said it better, so now today I will go out on the farm again and our fix fences and hope that labour/NZF/Greens do the same as they plan the great coalition to change the government for the betterment of all New zealanders finally after nine years of grotesque obsene corrupt national government.

          “Lets do this.”

          ilovejacinda/winston/james-julie-anne.

      • Marc says:

        I fear, it will not even come to this, Winston will be too mindful of the consequences of whatever he does, in the end he will back down and go with the Nats, in some form, even if it is just from the cross benches, support for piece of law by piece of law, or even clause by clause.

        And he can demand changes as he pleases.

    • bert says:

      Bahahahahahaha!

      Haven’t had a damn good laugh in a long long time. Thanks Jan, your a real hoot.

    • Barry says:

      Under FPP National won two elections having the most parliamentary seats and yet received less votes than Labour .
      Hardly democracy in action, yet National had no moral dilemma in forming a government.
      MMP is designed to stop this type of undemocratic outcome and long may it remain so.
      New Zealand is not a first passed the post democracy.

    • Liminal says:

      House prices collapse? Excellent, bring it on. It’s all a spurious bubble anyway.

  5. Mike the Lefty says:

    Let’s compare the forces who back a Labour led coalition with those who back a National led coalition.
    Who will benefit from either?
    Labour: the environment, the poor, the low paid, the homeless, mental health support services, public transport, and exporters because the NZ $ is bound to take a dive at least temporarily as all the frightened rich pricks sell off their billions of NZ dollars.
    National: the speculators, landlords, foreign magnates and corporations, private hospitals, the build-more-roads lobby, the Australian banks, the rich, the MSM, loan sharks, the spy industry.
    That’s Winston choice!

  6. Im right says:

    Jacinta, IF she is PM, will not last much past the new year. She is known to have time off for stress/anxiety (and that was in opposition) this will allow Little to take over as PM. Its been the plan all along….watch this space!

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      I had tuna fish sandwiches for dinner last night.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      Hey I’M RIGHT

      Let me straighten up your bad spelling of your person of interest for you;

      Instead of your incorrect spelling of our next PM is now Jacinda not as you said ‘Jacinta,’

      Best you get the spelling of our next PM right so you may then say I’M RIGHT.

    • Barry says:

      Will I hope she is PM long enough for you to spell her name correctly. She not a President, most of the governance is undertaken by select committees and the public service.

    • Oh dear me, more poisonous narratives from the lying right wing. Is this the dirty politics you and your cronies are going to use from now on?

      No wonder you use a pseudonym, Imright.

    • Priss says:

      “Stress/anxiety”?

      Oh dear me, the Right have already started their campaign of ‘white anting’ Jacinda. Thanks for the heads-up on the dirty politics to come, Im right. (What a silly pseudonym.)

      You guys ion National and Act lost the election despite all your lies and mis-information ($11.7 billion hole anyone?) and you’re still playing your shitty little games. Shame on on you Im right.

  7. Frank says:

    pretty much….no one ever said it would be easy

  8. Im right says:

    Interesting…..so you are getting your ‘excuses’ in print beforehand if the left coallition get to run the country and you are anticipating them to stuff up the economy/country you will, once again, blame a VRWC!?

    Interesting….

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      You obviously haven’t been paying attention to what Winnie has been saying, then.

      Try this instead :

      Fran O’Sullivan: Winston Peters’ wishlist has sensitive topics – NZ Herald
      http://www.nzherald.co.nz › Business

    • Barry says:

      Once again,Labour left office with a public debt is 18 billion, current public debt under National is 92 billion.
      Wise up and do some reading.

    • Barry says:

      Mr Key was the master of inactivity and excuses,” l didn’t know” ” I haven’t been in the loop” ” I simply had no knowledge of the facts” ” I haven’t been advised of the problem “.
      Wise up and do some reading too develope an informed opinion.

    • The only “interesting” thing here, Imright is that trolls like you will operate under the cloak of anonymity to spread lies.

      If you can’t find anything truthful to criticise Ardern for, you’ll just make it up, right?

      Jeez, she’s not even PM yet and the dirty politics has begun.

      Thank you for motivating me to carry on blogging.

  9. Me says:

    I think an air of calm will fall on us all before we start rebuilding a good NZ after the nats tried to ruin it.

  10. Stephen Howard says:

    Some time before the campaign started Meteria and Phil were speaking in Chch at the WEA on housing. Both said their parties would not prick the housing bubble but would fix the housing crisis. I questioned how they could do one but not the other. I still don’t see how that could happen.

    If they build more state houses with secure tenancies from a department of state and rented to working people at income related rents that will make it harder for landlords, many of whom, despite the impossibly high rents they charge, already rely on capital gains to justify the prices they pay for homes. It would also drive down the need for the subsidy they receive at the moment in the form of accommodation subsidies, once more making it hard to maintain their leveraged purchase of rental properties. Landlords would begin to see that many of their property strategies are no long valid or viable and try to cut their loses by dumping rentals on the market at the same time the affordable for purchase homes become available. That would lead to panic selling, and we will see how quickly bubbles can burst.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Yep ,- and that’s good old neo liberal ‘we don’t give a shit’ ideology at work.

      The bright side is , if panic selling happens ,there’s going to be a lot of houses up for sale and a few more to rent – AT REALISTIC PRICES.

      Couple that with a rebuild and we might get somewheres,… and just quietly ,… I reckon despite what all have been saying ,… that’s what they are banking on.

      And speaking of Banks ,… oooo those Aussies are soon going to be smarting !

      Harsh eh . But that’s what you get for living high on the hog under a neo liberal govt ; a sugar rush , – and , – as we all know ,… what goes up must come down.

      Neo liberals like to talk of a ‘ correction in the market’ ,… well here it comes.

      • Stephen Howard says:

        It’s not neoliberal because I very much support the building of new state houses preferably in a decently design inner city redevelopment, not gentrification.

        I am just analysing the possible economic outcome, not opposing it. One effect of bursting the bubble would be an increase in equality.

        • WILD KATIPO says:

          Oh , don’t misunderstand me , it was a commentary on neo liberal end results not directed at you , soz. 🙂

          But the sad truth is ,… a lot of people will be feeling pain whether its National or Labour who become govt . Its a result of the type of ideology we live under , sadly.

        • Marc says:

          Here is another view on housing and affordability, the way things are in NZ Inc, they are screwed:
          http://briefingpapers.co.nz/cost-is-not-price/

          Some major changes are needed, and some state intervention is needed, as the market we have has failed to cater for the population, it is a market catering only for those who can afford to play Monopoly on it, many are simply shut out.

          A totally new approach may be needed.

    • Marc says:

      You are correct, the only way to bring back affordable housing is by increasing supply and slowing immigration, and of course overseas and local buying of real estate, for speculation in the form of anticipated capital gains. Even a capital gains tax alone would not change all that much on the present market, unless that is also done.

      But that will inevitably drive down house prices, and valuations, and put some into negative equity territory, and that will be resented.

      I can hear the screams and the attacks already, by those who sit on and who own multiple residential real estate properties. Add stricter rules and giving more rights to tenants, the screams will get even louder. Most private landlords have not even bothered insulating rentals, and that is although in a year and a half, they will have to do this. They leave such things to the very last minute, and will even try to find excuses for not having to do it.

      Whether small landlord or bigger one, while some are ok, many are just selfish and greedy, and they behave exactly as the market has trained them to be.

      The only way to address all this is by also bringing in controls on property ownership, on land prices, on rent increases and much more. In laissez faire New Zealand such steps would be attacked with massive campaigns by the affected owners, the Nats and ACT the lobbyists that support those parties.

      What is needed is a nationalisation of core assets by the state, a boost of Housing NZ as the state’s landlord and social housing owner, a massive state construction program, and strict limitations on what private landlords can own, how they can own and run it, and how they must fulfill social obligations.

      The market as it is will crash and cease to exist in its present form, the powers that be, the capitalist owners, they will do all to get the government defeated, they will get people fight each other, and the property owners will try all to regain their perceived ‘rights’.

      As most people are not up to any fight, as the Labour and Green MPs and party officials are anything but soft neoliberal mutants, and as a Labour – Greens – NZ First arrangement would be fragile from the start, there will be little prospect of any real, significant, effective change.

      Such guys like Twyford are already in bed with certain developers like Ockham’s and Fletchers, to try and make some deals to build homes costing half a million or there abouts, and they will try to sell this to the public as ‘affordable’ options that bring back affordability to the market.

      Even Phil Twyford and even Winston Peters will struggle to do better than this:

      http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/341219/auckland-housing-accord-dismal-failure-on-affordability

      That is, because they will NOT have the guts to do what needs to be done, massive state intervention.

      • Marc says:

        Correction:
        “As most people are not up to any fight, as the Labour and Green MPs and party officials are nothing but soft neoliberal mutants, and as a Labour – Greens – NZ First arrangement would be fragile from the start, there will be little prospect of any real, significant, effective change.”

    • David Stone says:

      And to WC and Marc
      I think that there are two kinds of investor in the housing market at the moment, some who are landlords and some who are pure speculators only in the housing market opportunistically because it offers the best capital gain and the best security going just now. These latter are not landlords, they don’t let their asset out because they don’t need that extra bit of taxable income and it’s more prudent to leave the house empty so it isn’t subject to wear and tear, and doesn’t risk getting used for a meth lab.
      That’s why there are 30 or 40 thousand empty houses in Auckland. The landlords need the letting income. they are more a cure to the housing problem than the cause. The non landlords are the real problem.
      Killing the price escalation will cause them to withdraw their money and invest it elsewhere and those houses will become available for live in owners or real landlords to buy. Tenanting the empty houses would be by far the quickest way to ease the homelessness for a start.
      D J S

  11. Red Buzzard says:

    re “Campaigning for the election and winning the election will be the easy part for Jacinda…”

    that is why imo there needs to be a joint leadership PM…Jacinda at the front and Winston guarding her back( a Janus head)…female and male , young and older, enthusiasm and wily experience, a dynamic duo

    imo…the first thing that needs to be done is an opening of the books

    ( Nactional politicians have stalled, obfuscated and misled the New Zealand public on this…resisted this and even falsified the data)

    ….what New Zealanders need is the big data, a call to accounts …on how much of New Zealand is already owned, not just by individuals but by overseas companies and trusts and those overseas owners hiding behind NZ or Australian front companies and trusts

    …New Zealanders deserve and must know the truth…it is only on a thorough audit of foreign ownership of New Zealand assets , housing, land, businesses …that the route ahead will be clear

  12. Me says:

    House prices are falling in Sydney. Could it be a cyclical thing that happens every year and whips (what passes for) the media into a frenzy every time.

    For what it is worth I don’t think the property market will crash too much unless interest rates rise, then it would be another story.
    At the moment there are still too many people and too few houses and even if we built 100,000 as fast as we could we would need tens of thousands more by the time we were finished.
    I think probably prices might drop a little but they would stop going up so fast and wages would eventually catch up.

    I look out my window and all the problems I see homelessness, poverty, suicide, full hospitals, the cruelties of winz I could go on and on. All these problems if not directly caused by Nat still have not improved in 9 years.
    The country is in the shit regardless of who gets the job. The question is will it get better or will it get worse?

  13. e-clectic says:

    Hooton will be sharpening up and driving a set of wedges faster than you can say Dirty Politics.

    If it is to be Lab/NZF/Green they need to be impregnable. Leaving the Greens out of negotiations probably isn’t the tightest start.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      Winston said tonight on RNZ checkpoint that he has never had any bad words with or about James Shaw, so he has no issues with him at all he said after being asked about working with the greens, so we are hopeful these three gwet sorted so we can save this beautiful counytry before national totally destroy it.

      Real hope is in the air folks.

      keep the faith.

  14. Ahmed Asgher says:

    If foreign governments of China or wherever start barking, it will sure be a definite sign that they are the ones who were benefiting from Kiwi miseries, brought upon this country by their accomplices in the National oligarchy.

  15. sc says:

    OK, so let’s take stock of the kind of economy Labour/Green/NZ First are inheriting: An economy where private debt has reached its limit and cannot fuel further growth, a monetary policy ocr setting that can’t do much to stimulate growth as it is at 1.75% last time I looked and going to 0.5% won’t make people borrow more, chronic underemployment (1 hour per week gets you listed as “employed” in NZ – the 4.8% figure is ridiculous) and huge problems relating to the statistically hidden unemployment like homelessness, mental health problems, health problems caused by food and energy poverty.

    So now in this context imagine Labour/Green etc takes charge and decided to do a fiscal stimulus and takes on a bit more public debt.

    The conservatives argue the chain of events from that will be mass anticipation of Weimar level hyperinflation, a run on the currency causing import prices to skyrocket, a point blank refusal from the interntional holders of our currency to “lend” the government its money back unless it pays Greece-like risk premiums, a massive capital outflow causing businesses to be starved of funds for expansion, a huge hike in interest rates by the reserve bank to try stem these outflows a la John Major in 1992 and to stem the 55% inflation resulting, massive mortgage interest rate rises crushing consumer spending, large scale defaults, mass unemployment – the sky will fall!

    The counterfactual is that the “markets” will have a small hissy fit for a week or two based on irrational animal spirits caused by whenever the populace delivers Labour governments and then calm down when they realise NZ is still a pretty good bet. Then a deficit will stimulate demand (teachers have more money in their pockects, beneficiaries, nurses, care workers, mental health workers) increasing consumption, profits and investment stimulating employment. Keynesianism. Inflation will be muted because there is so much under utilised capacity in the economy anyway (our inflation rate is 1.7% and facing deflation) and the extra spending increases productivity and stimulates investment due to increased sales.

    The counterfactual is probably exactly what a National government will do anyway when the recession hits – yet it won’t, I would argue, be substantial enough to fully reboot the economy -just enough to keep the country on life support.

    So this whole silly scared horses scenario that we all fear is overblown. At the end of the day investors want to make money and are pragmatic. When they see an economy growing and producing sales and returns they will want to invest in it. Furhter more our government can never defualt on its debt after all – like the US, UK or Japan. Not even if it has to bail out our banks with a QE type operation.

    Finally, there is nothing to stop the government instituting some capital controls as well. China does after all. Everyone knows all this capricious hot money flow is ridiculous and doesn’t help real economy (and inflates asset prices putting us all in debt) and just helps the speculators. Iceland did it. Read up on Bill Mitchell’s view on this if you are interested http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33943

    It’s time to stare down the short term market hissy fit in favour of long term economic improvement. Otherwise we can never use government levers to materially improve people’s lives. It has to be done. Take a deep breath and just do it.

    • Marc says:

      Yes and no, you offer some good, sensible comments, but it is not as easy and risk free, what may be done under a different kind of government.

      In any case, this is interesting stuff to read, from a housing construction expert:
      https://thepolicyobservatory.aut.ac.nz/publications/the-mess-were-in-aucklands-housing-bubble-from-a-construction-sector-perspective
      http://briefingpapers.co.nz/the-mess-we-are-in/

      “We cannot leave matters to the free market and then continue to be stunned by the inconvenient fact that the market will act in its own best interests: land banking; rationing land release to keep prices high; and building large and expensive homes whilst ignoring demand at the bottom end of the market. Developers, builders, house buyers and the public all act for their own best interests. All of these stakeholders will not act as charities pro bono publico. To think otherwise is naïve in the extreme.”

      So a voice for state intervention, perhaps alongside collective not for profit development.

      That requires central government to make available more funds to invest, but given the agreement Labour and Greens went into, to be fiscally responsible, there are clear limits as to what they will be able to do, with NZ First, if they form the next government.

      Somewhere down the line they have to come to the party and bring in higher taxes for high earners, so far they are too scared to even talk about taxation.

      There are also real constraints, to build the housing and infrastructure that is needed, and there is a limit to available capital from banks, and labour is also in short supply, same as building supplies having gone up in prices:

      https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/residential-building-slows-skilled-labour-high-demand-b-200275

      http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1703/S00669/constraints-in-construction-sector-driving-price-escalation.htm

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/92714692/concrete-shortage-another-hurdle-for-constrained-construction-industry

      This is where Winston Peters seems to be keen to change the law, so the Super Fund can make available more funds to invest in necessary infrastructure development:
      https://www.nzsuperfund.co.nz/nz-super-fund-explained-purpose-and-mandate/constraints

      Whatever will need to be done, and what can be done, will take time, much more than a three year term, so a Labour – NZ First – Greens government will face the same or similar challenges as National, while they want a different approach.

      Meanwhile teachers are talking about strikes next year, medical staff are unhappy, overworked and underpaid, many other public servants want more pay, the financial pressures will build, and that is where things can reach crisis point sooner rather than later.

      • sc says:

        First off, the NZ government is not revenue constrained (although at present it acts as if it is). Any time it likes it can instruct the Reserve Bank to buy some treasuries off it ( (or not even bother with this accounting procedure) and deficit spend into the economy. It does not need to tax to do so.

        This will increase demand. Imagine if you got $10000 extra in your account tomorrow. You might pay off some debt. Or save a bit. But most likely you’d spend quite a bit. Now whether this increased demand is inflationary depends on the state of real resources in the economy. Right now I believe there is a lot of spare capacity – people idle, people who’ve given up on real jobs, people desperate for more hours. A quick walk around Christchurch East during a week day will provide you with the evidence that there is a lot of unemployment. The increased government spending right now would I believe cause non-inflationary growth in most sectors. So teachers getting a pay rise most likely would not be inflationary at all – in fact it might stave off deflation and the increasing debt burden most teachers’ families are under. The government can always afford it however – the fiscal constraint is illusory.

        Now the construction sector is a bit special – there’s capacity constraints in terms of skilled labour and materials due to years of leaving it to the market to sort out. This is where government spending (via the superfund or whatever – which is actually just a form of government spending anyway) can attack those capacity constraints – massive investment in apprenticeships, timber processing, local production of inputs, provision of infrastructure etc.

        Now I encourage people to head to the MMT blogosphere to read the background to my counterintuitive-to-many views. But I believe fiscal policy is going to be the way we all stay afloat in the coming years cause using interest rates and loading up on private debt have exhausted their usefulness. And I believe National and governments the world over will do the same because there really is no alternative in this new era of impotent central banks (not that they ever did much good anyway).

        • Marc says:

          “Right now I believe there is a lot of spare capacity – people idle, people who’ve given up on real jobs, people desperate for more hours. A quick walk around Christchurch East during a week day will provide you with the evidence that there is a lot of unemployment.”

          Sorry, this is simply not quite realistic, what you suggest.

          That ‘capacity’ you talk about is not real, not relevant, as those not working now, where there is high demand of workers, albeit often for not that great wages or salaries, they are people with issues, health or other, hence they are left on the so called ‘scrap heap’.

          As for the government making available more money, that has its limits and consequences, it will always come with strings attached, so anything put into circulation will be as credit, having to be paid back through work and business activity returns, or it will in the end be inflationary, as the supply will not keep pace with created demand.

          All this has been tried in the past and present.

          As someone else explained here not so long ago, the quantitative easing has not led to inflation, as it was created to cover the bad debt that the banks could not normally write off, as they were considered to big to fail.

          Yet the debt of the US for instance has shot up into more billions, all waiting to be repaid at some time in the future.

          With finite resources on this planet, representing various forms of contstraints for the future years, all the hope that it will be paid of is illusionary, that is where what we have is somehow close to a kind of Ponzi scheme.

          • sc says:

            Marc, check out Japan. It’s being tried. It’s keeping a deflationary spiral at bay and maintaining high standards of living for its citizens with massive deficit spending and 200% public debt. Also very little inflation, no bond vigilantes and low interest rates. Go figure?

            These ideas seem fringe I know cause they are counterintuitive (governments should be like households surely?? etc)… but they won’t soon.

            Check out
            http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=36631
            “Japan is different, right? Wrong…”

            Final thought – if we were at full capacity labour wise, surely we’d be seeing some wage inflation? Funny that we haven’t seen any for a long time….(immigration is part of the story, as is the lack of unions but still…). Our statistics are understating unemployment, underemployment and bullshit employment (1 hour per week anyone??). But that’s convenient for some isn’t it?

            • Marc says:

              Keep feeding such blinkered news, or opinions, this is more like the truth:

              https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/12/02/national/adults-kept-leaving-parents-nests-asia-harsh-economic-realities/

              “The aging of the Japanese and South Korean societies, and the significant slowdown in their economic growth rates, are contributing to a large increase in households with elderly parents supporting adult offspring who haven’t been able to leave home. In some cases, it’s even forcing parents to delay retirement.

              The stubbornly high youth unemployment rate is seen as a big part of the problem in South Korea. This is less of an issue for Japan, where the rise of part-time and contract employment, which often comes with low pay and little security, is a major contributor. In both cases, the opportunities for high school and college graduates to secure steady jobs in offices or on factory floors are not what they were for their parents.

              In Japan, more than 3 million singles aged 35 to 44 still live with their parents, according to a government study. Some 620,000 are either unemployed, have stopped looking for work or only work intermittently.”

              That is the price to pay, youth with little future, as the economy has to look after the rapidly aging population, so they have no kids, do not go into relationships and some emigrate, as a fair few have done also to New Zealand.

            • Marc says:

              See this, if it was not already accepted as comment, you are blinkered, I fear:

              https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/12/02/national/adults-kept-leaving-parents-nests-asia-harsh-economic-realities/

              “The aging of the Japanese and South Korean societies, and the significant slowdown in their economic growth rates, are contributing to a large increase in households with elderly parents supporting adult offspring who haven’t been able to leave home. In some cases, it’s even forcing parents to delay retirement.

              The stubbornly high youth unemployment rate is seen as a big part of the problem in South Korea. This is less of an issue for Japan, where the rise of part-time and contract employment, which often comes with low pay and little security, is a major contributor. In both cases, the opportunities for high school and college graduates to secure steady jobs in offices or on factory floors are not what they were for their parents.

              In Japan, more than 3 million singles aged 35 to 44 still live with their parents, according to a government study. Some 620,000 are either unemployed, have stopped looking for work or only work intermittently.”

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      Well stated SC,

      National are throwing everything at us now with scare tactics.

      They must be hiding so much inside those shoddy Treasury figures that they wont be able to cover up all their coruption when Winston and jacinda get to review the treasury books to see what National/ACT have actuallly sold NZ & us out down to the lowest denomination now!!!

      And find a $11.7 Billion dollar hole there.

      Jacinda/Winston/james “lets do this”

  16. Knarf says:

    Honestly, it’s not in either Labour’s or the Greens’ interests to form a coalition with NZ First. Better to get a few minor policy victories during the next term and hope the the National-NZ First coalition is as unpopular as its 1996 incarnation was.

  17. Michelle says:

    This morning I heard bolger saying on TV 3 our economy has done well over the last 7-8 years which is why we need a we need a proven and experienced leader so we can carry on with the same. So why did we vote jockey in when he wasn’t a proven leader when we had to deal with something as important as the GFC. I think he is showing how out of touch he is and so is prebble they both seem to have the same problem amnesia or is it dementia ?

  18. CLEANGREEN says:

    What happens if a Labour led Government gets announced?

    I will go out and get smashed, legless and blind drunk, because I have been holding my breath for nine years hoping to get rid of this crooked morally corupt National government.

    • Red Buzzard says:

      +100 CLEANGREEN…we have champagne waiting in the fridge ! ( I will think of you and raise a toast to a good true on-line fighter)

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Your doing better than me , CLEANGREEN , – I’ve been getting smashed, legless and blind drunk for the last three years precisely BECAUSE National have been in govt !!!

      L0L !!!

      Must be the Scots heritage , I don’t know …

      Ill celebrate with a nice cup of green tea , I think,… then get smashed , legless and blind drunk after that ! 🙂

      But seriously though , it will be a time of huge celebration for many up and down this fair country of ours to see the Nats finally gone !!!

      🙂

    • mary_a says:

      Had a dream the other night Cleangreen that I woke up to a Labour/Green/NZF government. And I don’t dream very often, or I don’t remember them. So here’s hoping dreams do come true 🙂

  19. Andrewo says:

    What happens if a Labour led Government gets announced?

    I’ll put on the popcorn and watch the resulting circus! 🙂

    • bert says:

      At least you’ll be able to afford to take a photo. If National are our government again, stand back and watch more robberies and the demise of our health industry.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      I’ll send around an ambulance for you Andrewo, just send the address please.

    • bert says:

      Compared to the last 9 years of Keystone Cops, a circus would be welcome.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Hehehe,… and contained within that circus will be one roaring Lion called Winston,… King of the Jungle and Kingmaker of govt.

      And THAT lion will be looking on licking his lips at all those popcorn eating far right wingers out there in the crowd , thinking ‘mhmmm,… foreign investors for dinner, globalists for breakfast , and corporate crony’s for lunch ,… life couldn’t be better’…

  20. Quite frankly I don’t give a damn about the international community. Countries like China and the US have been manipulating NZ affairs for a decade or so, and we have lacked any MP with any testicles to stand up to them.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      true peter,

      Our government is made up of highly publlically paid “public servants”

      So Public servants must work in the best intersets of the public who pays them to do this right?

      National = do not do anything for us public = national = only work for vested interests not the public.

      National = your’e fired!!!!!!

  21. Pete says:

    If it’s Labour the sight and sound of an apoplectic Michelle Boag will better than the feelings of elation at winning those Rugby World Cups.

    • Red Buzzard says:

      I think Michelle is either too COOL or past it to get “apoplectic”….even Hooton is sounding resigned…it is only Seymour who is rattling the cages like a wild animal

      Lets face it the Nact are past it!…yesterdays dog tucker!

      btw didnt Frank McCaskey say he would EAT HIS HAT if there was a Labour , NZF, Green coalition?!

      I wanna see Frank eat his HAT! ( can we have an on screen picture of this in the EVENT !)

      No use hiding Frank!

    • Richard Christie says:

      LOL

  22. Veritas says:

    It’s time to be realistic. If we say the majority of people voted against National, an even larger number voted against Labour and the Greens. NZF seem to be having constructive talks with Labour, but no-one is talking to the Greens. The Greens are the weak link; I don’t know why, but no-one likes them. They need to do some soul searching as to why they continually sink the left.

  23. mosa says:

    I have always thought that Jacinda’s time will be 2020 or sooner but with a mandate in her own right like 1999, 2005.

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/@politics/2017/10/07/52185/national-the-opposition-from-hell

    If Winston can make the Natz uncomfortable with his demands just to govern for three years then fine.

    The National party is so compromised by the chinese and others that it will disintegrate because Winston will not tolerate its or others influence.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      National would find any way to frame Winston if he goes with National just as sure as today is thursday 12th October 2017 or NZF judgement day.

      So as soon as he realises that since 1996 national have been trying to destroy him & NZF if he signs up to any coalition with them, his “legacy is over”- it is a surety.

      Winston must be the Phoenix that raises New Zealand back up from the national flames of destruction.

      • Red Buzzard says:

        +100 CLEANGREEN…it would be suicide for NZF to go with National

        …and NZF would NOT go with National unless National suicided

        …their policies are diametrically opposed

      • Im right says:

        Best lock in that mortgage now cleangreen….if its a lab/gre/nzf coalition watch interest rates rise, that farm of yours could be repossessed!

        • CLEANGREEN says:

          I dot own a farm IMright,

          You are wrong again.

          If you just like spookingeveryone fuck off as we dont need your National trolling.

          Talk about National morgage policy! what policy???

          Global rtes wer historically l;ow and it wansn’t anything national did that influenced those rates.

          Guess what the global interset rates are now rising right now and are you now doing about this?

          So are you blaming your deloved National Party for this now????

        • CLEANGREEN says:

          Interst rates globally are now on the rise dont you know Imright?

          Guess you dont know everything atn alll.

          So are you going to blame your belovered national Government for the rising interest rates then?????

        • WILD KATIPO says:

          Ha !… and if its a return to National , -we will all be loosing our marbles as well as our non existent mortgages because its all outside of Kiwis borrowing power to live in a house.

          Have another sandwich on me.

        • With so much cash sloshing around the globe, Imright, I doubt interest rates will start rising any time soon. But keep up with your doom-laden scare-mongering – I guess it’s all you have left.

  24. david says:

    The photograph, to be accurate, needs Winston in a pinstripe dinner suite.

    The preening peacock needs pinstripes.

  25. Dave says:

    depends if the half witted Greens are a part of it. If not then not a lot of change really.

  26. david says:

    Can we have a government without Winston? Alas a rhetorical question and I don’t mean a Nat/Greens coalition. That’s a death sentence for the Greens and smart turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

    I would be happy with any government as long as we don’t have to put up with Winston’s posing in his pinstripes.

  27. Jack says:

    Since when were the markets ever right. Useful yes, right no.

  28. Dave says:

    Will we have a decision before Christmas?

  29. Cemetery Jones says:

    “The new Government will be immediately tested by powerful anti-democratic forces who will move to spook the stock market off the back of this supposed ‘shock’ win by Labour.”

    Dear Mike Hosking: Fuck with the outcome of my internet shopping at your peril, you little breadstick.