The electorates to watch this election

There are a number of electorates which are crucial in this election and could show some deep changes in the NZ political landscape.

Oahriu:

With Dunne stepping down, this seat is wide open. The decision by the Greens to put Tane Woodley back into play to just chase the Party vote will be damaging. Despite this always being close, Green supporters have always wasted their electorate vote on Woodley and with a candidate as controversial as Greg O’Connor that will happen again. The Jacinda effect – which is showing no sign whatsoever of slowing – could however be enough to win this for Greg, especially as the National candidate is so woefully pathetic, having to go from telling people to vote for Dunne to now begging for their vote is terribly unbecoming. That Conservative Party vote will likely go to National, so this could be close and Take could be the reason Greg loses. If Greg wins it will be because Jacinda has won over the centre, a bell weather electorate in terms of where the rest of the election might go. If he loses it and its the Green candidate vote that is the difference, there will be a lot of criticism.

Waiariki:

On paper Flavell romps home with votes to spare. The MANA Maori Party non aggression pact should gift him an extra 5000 votes on top of his 4000 majority, but the Jacinda effect has changed everything and Tamati Coffey has worked his butt off to get traction. The most recent poll in the Maori electorates has Labour on 46%, but in Waiariki it’s at 38% so if Waiariki moves with the trend in other Maori electorates, it will be a close election. This matters because if Flavell loses, Marama Fox and the Maori Party disappear from Parliament. Coffey has to bring out the youth vote to have a chance of unseating the great shark. NZ First gained 2801 Party votes in Waiariki, it will be interesting to see if Winston’s desire to end the Maori Electorates will damage that party vote.

Epsom:

Seymour holds onto Epsom because National voters let him have it. If Green and Labour voters who waste their electorate vote on their local candidate instead used it to tactically vote for Paul Goldsmith,  then National would accidentally win Epsom and Seymour would be kicked out of Parliament. Seymour’s strong support of Euthanasia has put him offside with the electorates Asian community. Where the large Conservative Party vote goes to will also impact things.

Christchurch Central:

There are many eyes on Christchurch Central. Labour candidate, Dr Duncan Webb, has worked hard in the electorate and if the Jacinda effect works, he will beat Nicky Wagner and herald Christchurch coming back to Labour.

Te Tai Tokerau:

Hone is using each media event he’s managed to get on to as a Party Leader to maximum effect and his non aggression pact with the Maori Party should give him the numbers. Yes Kelvin has done a great job and when it was  straight contest between him and Hone it was close, but with Kelvin on the party List as the Deputy Leader, Northern Maori get Kelvin AND could get Hone as representatives. Hone’s appearances has reminded voters of what a political talent he is and that not having him in Parliament is a mistake.

Hutt South:

Chris Bishop is a rising National Party MP and Ginny Anderson is going to have her work cut out for her up against him. It’s been made easier with the Green losing the very brilliant Susanne Ruthven and replacing her with  a 72 year old Grandmother, that could shake some Green electorate vote Ginny’s way.  Where the NZ First and Conservative Party electorate vote goes will matter. Ginny needs a huge Jacinda surge to get her over the finish line.  Jacinda should hit Hutt South a few times.

Auckland Central:

Before Jacinda became leader, this was going to be a Nikki Kaye romp home, after Jacinda became leader, Nikki would be foolish to feel too confident.  Mika from TOP could be a wild card here, will Denise Roche electorate voters keep wasting their vote, can the very capable Helen White take up Jacinda’s mantle?

In an election this close, she could.

Nelson:

This is becoming a fascinating electorate to watch. Nick Smith is a joke MP whose utter failure on water quality and housing should have him imprisoned for gross incompetence anywhere else, yet Nick Smith’s vote has barely ever changed in Nelson. Labour have a new candidate in Rachel Boyack, but it is the Green candidate Matt Lawrey that everyone will be watching. The Greens were bequeathed a large amount of money from a Nelson supporter and the condition for the bequeathment was that the maximum was spent on the Nelson electorate so you have an interesting case of a Party spending the maximum within an electorate to promote  a popular local candidate.  For Nick to lose would be the biggest upset of the election.

Northland: 

Winston’s win in the 2015 by-election has sealed this electorates fate. Winston will win it again, and again, and again, and probably once again after he dies. It’s provincial NuZilind and they love the Winnie. National are putting up Matt King, Winston will wipe the floor with him and the incredibly talented Willow-Jean Prime will get in off the Labour list.

Whangerai:

This should be a walk in the park for Shane Reti, but up against the  charisma monster of Shane Jones makes this a wide open contest.

If the NZ First raid into the provinces is successful, its high tide mark will be Jones taking Whangerai.

Tamaki Makaura:

Peeni should take this with the Jacinda effect, but the popularity of Marama Davidson and where the MANA vote goes will decide the result. Maori Party have a strong candidate in Shane Taurima.

Te Tai Tonga: 

The last electorate that could be an upset on the night is Te Tai Tonga. With Metiria stepping down, she has said that if she were elected to Te Tai Tonga, she would come back for Parliament. Seeing as she gave voice to many Maori on benefits, she has a real chance of doing something magical in Te Tai Tonga. Labour Party MP Rino Tirikatene has failed to excite or ignite and Metiria will appeal to MANA and Legalise voters.

If there is a God, Metiria’s lynching by white rich male broadcasters could resurrect her as an electorate MP in a Maori electorate. That would be rich irony.