Latest Newshub Poll is out, it shows Labour under Jacinda storming back into rude health…
…but here’s the caution. The vast majority of Labour’s gain is at the expense of NZ First and the Greens, Jacinda was only able to pull .8% away from National, and that should be a major worry.
Jacinda should be appealing to female National voters, ones who voted for Key, and former Helen Clark National voters in a far larger way than this Poll is suggesting.
Also, the Greens tactic to try and win over the Beneficiary non-vote won’t appear in a mainstream landline poll like this so their drop won’t be as perilous as this poll suggests.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a great start for Labour and Jacinda should feel a lot of pride in this result, but the Opposition are still cannibalising its vote, they are not bringing in enough none vote, undecided voters or National voters.
This is going to be a close election.
There will come a time to celebrate. After the harvest. When all the badly needed hard work, which there is many is completed.
FYI. If you take out the margin of error lower. National are weak, and there support parties deserve the decimation and lamination that should have been directed at National instead of Mets.
Let us take this for what it is …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEBlaMOmKV4
That’ll be the leafy suburbs showing up
We expected this.
Hang tight!
A lot of shit going down to confuse this picture. No reason for NZF to have fallen away that much and I don’t believe it. Wait for a few more polls after the dust settles.
D J S
Too much other shit going down to allow Winston to get a lot of air time on Bill’s deleted texts and by extension is the Prime Minister honest.
+100…yes he does attack other potential coalition partners on the Left but goes for Bill English
typo… Winston does NOT attack other potential coalition partners
doesnt…does Not …typo/ not does
Yes RED BUZZARD.
Winston is the commensurate politician he sees everything around him that goes on as a second sense that he will change as everything does daily.
He does not attack the other left political parties only the corrupt right wing parties.
Good point Red, that’s true.
New political party? BZ First…
(The delicate scent of face-palm in the evening.)
I don’t believe that National are on 44.4 %.
My polling has them on 41.5% and N.Z First on 14%.
National are headed in to the 30’s…
Yep reckon you are correct there Grant.
yes I think so too…polls are often wrong
There is at least a 6% drop to what National get on election night compared to the opinion polls. So Grant is right.
100% Grant
National is so worried they are attacking in Parliament like dogs towards any other political party now.
That shows they are desperate.
I sense here, they have shown today 10/8/17 they feel a whiff of failure now, that come 6 weeks they will be out of a job.
Good luck to bad rubbish.
Gower says dumb shit. Then we say smart shit so Gower picks up the banana.
Agree 100% Grant the polls are like our unemployment stats unreliable and prone to manipulation and it is easy to do this as it depends on the process used to gather the information and what is being asked. The problem is too many NZers trust our mainstream media when really there has and never will be balanced reporting in our country.
This ^^ @ Michelle, you have got that dead right.
So what’s the undecided vote?
Gotta’ be more than the 0.8% unaccounted for by those figures, surely??
Someone please explain if I’m interpreting this poll incorrectly.
Rounding error. Undecideds rated if asked.
This is actually the MOST important stat, I’d think.
How can you interpret the data without knowing how many people don’t know which party they want to vote for yet. How can you know if -for example – Labour IS actually taking votes off the Greens or are people who weren’t sure have now decided to vote Labour? Or people who had discounted Labour pre Jacinda are now deciding between them and Greens/NZ First/ National?
I suspect this is why they no longer include Undecides as it is easier for propaganda/horse race purposes. Also why polls are no longer very reliable
In primary school kids get taught to round up. Well in the commercial world if you round up a bag of chips (for example) will have a little bit less in it and that is fraudulent behaviour. So in the commercial world rounding errors are rounded down to the lower whole number. For that reason you subtract the margin of error away from a parties total%. Looking through this lense and the minor parties looks insignificant and Gower power agrees.
“The Herald can also reveal leaked results from the latest UMR poll, which finished today. That shows Labour has surged from 23 per cent a fortnight ago to 36 per cent. Support for the Green Party collapsed from 15 per cent to 8 per cent.
In the UMR poll support for New Zealand First dropped from 16 to 8 per cent. National went up 1 per cent to 43 per cent.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11901065
God that new Herald set up is hard to navigate. Give me the old one anytime.
It might be a worry the small % coming from National to Labour but absolutely no surprise.
A big splurge could come out with proof positive of Bill English being actively involved in seeking to get rid of Barclay, of clearly being complicit in illegalities in that and standing lying blatantly to the public about it. If everyone knew about that it would dismissed and strengthen his support because he was being picked on.
These were the supporters of a PM who if he savaged a baby with a carving knife on the steps of Parliament would’ve screamed for the babe’s parents to be locked away for child abuse for taking the kid to Wellington and sought a knighthood for the perpetrator for precision carving.
Very good
I do not like this, while it may be positive, for the alternative, we will not have a changed government, we will perhaps have a change of government, no more.
The business and other interests will simply not allow true change.
The power of the media.
A week of positive coverage of Ardern sees her and her party’s ratings soar. Whereas, a week of negative coverage for the Greens leads to a dive in the polls.
If you want National votes, you have to ask for them.
Pitch to the habitual blue voters who are actually red in their heart.
Ask for their help to make a better, fairer and cleaner New Zealand.
If you don’t ask, you don’t get.
While they are doing that, they can also ask for the young votes.
And even ask the vote of farmers who care about the rivers flowing through their land as it runs to the sea, why not. We want EVERYONE. Dealing with our own prejudice: that’s on us.
If you don’t ask, you don’t get.
I thinki it (Labour’s poll increase) is significant.
I was looking at Jeremy Corbyn’s rise in the polls and this was a slow 3 points up, one or two down………………..
We were never going to be able to form a progressive govt with Labour on 24%……………….Hold tight. I believe it is a good sign
almost 1% from the first couple of days isn’t to be sniffed at…am sure there’ll be a goodly number waiting to see where a JA Labour is heading before jumping ship…and it doesn’t need many.
Whats with this recent leaking of UMR polls? Are we going to see National’s David Farrar leak Curia poll results too? This is all pretty dodgy if you ask me.
I didn’t think it was a bad effort for the first week. I wonder what the polls will show after another six?
Fingers crossed a change of government.
The Big Question is, did Labour gain because of voter opposition to Metiria? Or because of the “Jacinda Effect”?
If its the latter, Metiria did not negatively influence the polls!
Question(s) should be
How much NZF freaked and went back to National
As well as those who went to Labour
If a considerable portion went to National
Then a considerable portion of National have similarly moved to Labour +1
My dad was an accountant, use your brains guys
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