A brief history of NZ First – Green Party antagonism and evaluating the Green kamikaze strategy against Winston

The decision to declare war on NZ First at the weekend as part of the Green Party election launch caught most political commentators and political parties by complete surprise.

I understand someone within the poor old Labour Party hierarchy actually banged his head on his desk when the news of this broke. Before I evaluate the  Green kamikaze strategy against Winston, let’s remind ourselves of the brief history of NZ First and Green Party antagonism and how everyone suddenly learnt to count.

A brief history of NZ First – Green Party antagonism

We all know the major falling out in 2005 when Winston tripped the Greens out of Government by cutting a minority Government deal with Helen Clark. That was 12 years ago and the Greens radicalism was just too far outside the comfort zone of socially conservative NZ First.

The main driver of resentment from NZ First towards the Greens however happened much later in 2008. When Winston was being ripped to pieces for the Owen Glenn donations fiasco, it was Russell Norman’s tenacious questioning and constant attacks on Peters that truly poisoned the well of any good faith between NZ First and the Greens.

As is often the case for most political grudges the reason why Winston hated the Greens was personal, Russell Norman had embarrassed and shit upon Winston’s mana at a time when Norman thought Winston was on the ropes and he was serving up some Green Party payback for 2005.

Things didn’t get better until Norman left the Greens

Since then there has been a lot of effort by both parties to try and rebuild a relationship, Tracy Martin has been instrumental in this and when Shane Jones came back on board he was very careful to point out that his previous animosity towards the Greens shouldn’t be read as the way he sees them now.

There was a detente in place and while a NZ First-Labour minority Government was the most likely outcome for a change of Government in September, the supply and confidence deal with the Greens would have at least seen the Green leadership with Cabinet posts.

The Greens desire to launch open warfare on NZ First at their election launch however has turned that detente on its head.

Suddenly every political pundit and Party can count

I love how all of a sudden every political pundit and Party can count.

It’s a point TDB has been making for the last 3 months.

Labour + Green won’t = 51%.

So how do they get to 51%?

They need NZ First.

What will NZ First demand for that?

They will demand a NZ First-Labour minority Government with supply and confidence from the Greens for a few cabinet positions.

The obviousness of this dilemma, which. TDB. Has. Been. Pointing. Out. For. Three. Months, seems to have only sunk into the rest of the political echo chambers, so why don’t we just skip ahead to the points in the debate we’ve already covered so people can have a better idea of where things will end up?

This problem that Green + Labour wouldn’t = 51% was always going to be most challenging for the Greens because their liberal middle class identity politics activist base Wellington twitter bubble world see the cross burning banjo twanging political freak show circus jamboree that is NZ First as an anathema to all they stand for. Once this activist base suddenly learned to count and realised they needed NZ First to change the Government all hell was always going to break loose.

The power of this liberal middle class identity politics activist base Wellington twitter bubble world was on obvious display recently when the Greens self-flagellated themselves for daring to suggest sustainable immigration targets, something perfectly acceptable to environmental activists but unacceptable to cosmopolitan identity politic activists.

How the Greens were going to manage their middle class activists while NZ First whistled up the rhetoric was always going to be incredibly challenging and the Greens have decided that instead of managing their activists middle class pretensions, they’ll actual enflame and appeal directly to those middle class pretensions to ensure their activists vote.

It’s a fucking risky tactic that has all sorts of unforeseen consequences.

Evaluating the Green kamikaze strategy against Winston

To appreciate the Green kamikaze strategy against Winston you first have to understand that the Greens are now a middle class party and that the radical environmental activism has been replaced by middle class identity political values. Cosmopolitan migrant rights, intersectionist feminism, binary gender activism and trans rights are as large a driver of core values for the Greens as environmentalism is.

This middle classing of the Greens means the party resembles more of a university sorority glee club than the hippy rainbow warriors of old. These middle class identity politics activists despise what NZ First represents and for them, Metiria’s attack on Winston is going to go down better than peanut satay tofu at a suburban Kink munch mingle event.

But getting your activist base to the polls isn’t the only consideration in politics, it’s how you mend the fences after the election to build a possible Government that really matters in MMP, and Winston has shown with Russell Norman that he takes shit like this personally, so while the Greens might be able to inspire their liberal middle class identity politics activist base Wellington twitter bubble world to the polls, what happens after the Polls close?

Before we get to those post election negotiations, just consider this. NZ First has waaaaaaaaay more to gain from open hostilities with the Greens than the Greens get from this declaration of war. NZ First are going deep into National Party provincial territory and making the Greens a political punching bag in those provinces will be golden for the Jonesy and Winston.

Previously NZ First would have had to have pulled those punches, but with an open declaration of hostilities you watch how the Jonesy and Winnie tag team an old fashioned beat down on the Greens.

The provinces NZ First are trying to take are ripe with fury at National but because Labour and the Greens are too culturally alienating to those voters, that frustration can only go Winston’s way – adding a Green Party smack down into that mix could horrifically pay massive dividends to NZ First.

So, how could this play out?

The middle class activist base rush to the Greens and heap scorn on NZ First and NZ First repay it with interest.

It keeps the Green Party vote up and they manage to get 11% but NZ First’s attacks on them bring in numbers from the provinces that easily allow them to leap frog the Greens and become the 3rd largest political party.

Winston remembers the Green attack and takes it personally and either shuts them out of a Labour/NZ First minority Government or he points to the Greens as impossible to work with and cuts a deal with National.

Meanwhile, outside the twitter Wellington bubble world, voters see the Greens as divisive, not interested in working together to change the Government and could be ultimately blamed for a 4th term National Government.

The negatives of declaring war on NZ First seem to outweigh the small positive of picking up more millennial middle class voters. I don’t want to say that the Greens have a staffing issue when this is the tactical strategy they adopt because I’ve been saying that for 3 years now, but seriously, once the dust settles after the election, some heads have to roll.

Before the Green Party election launch I would have said that a change of Government was on the cards and that change would have been a Labour-NZ First minority Government with supply and confidence to the Greens in exchange for 2 Cabinet positions, after the Green Party election launch I honestly can’t call it now.

PS – I write all of this as someone who has voted Green my entire adult life and would never ever ever ever ever vote NZ First.