BREAKING: Latest UMR Poll National 42% – Labour/Green 45%

By   /   June 16, 2017  /   55 Comments

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The latest UMR internal fortnightly Poll from Labour taken between 7th June – 15th June paints a completely different picture.

For those desperate to see an end to this appalling Government, the latest TV3 Poll putting Labour on 26% and National on 47% would have been pretty depressing.

It shouldn’t be.

The Poll was taken in the sugar high of the fawning media’s description of National’s budget as left wing and family friendly before the real criticism of how National have actually underfunded health by the tune of $2.3 billion was out.

This is also the Poll that 4 months out from the 2014 election was giving National 50%.

The latest UMR internal fortnightly Poll from Labour taken between 7th June – 15th June paints a completely different picture.

This was taken after the criticism of the budget and after Labour’s foreign student cutback policy.

National 42% (down 2)

Labour 32% (up 2)

Greens 13% n/c

NZF 9% n/c

The truth is the Corporate mainstream media want you to believe Bill English has won before the election is even held.

The truth is that most election pundits have been wrong recently.

The truth is that if the youth of this nation rise up and participate and demand change, then the powerful crumble.

If the denial over our child poverty can not be tolerated any longer.

If the madness of National’s wealth illusion speculative property bubble housing crisis demands you to act.

If the horror of a suicide rate 3 times higher than officially acknowledged, 41000 homeless and 1600 dying from cold homes annually is unacceptable to you.

Then now is the time to put your shoulder to those political parties who guarantee a change of Government – Labour, the Greens or MANA.

We must refuse to allow the mainstream media to drain us of our hope that change can come.

The time to act is now.

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55 Comments

    • Louis says:

      Your link is not an alternative view its a promotional ad for the National party.

    • XRAY says:

      I read that crock of shit diatribe by Karl Marx, swooning over Nationals budget. Clearly this turkey couldn’t see what a wealth transference from the poor to the wealthy it was. His analysis was so easily flawed.

      National also rely on thicko’s like this person to only take in the soundbites and pit that against their never ending bitterness for Labour from back in the fucking 80’s no less.

      It’s as if the turd who wrote this, and frankly it wouldn’t surprise me if it was the rat fucking department of the PM’s office that did so, wants to see a 4th term National government to be re-elected.

      The thing is with people like this is everything that went before the 80’s is deliberately forgotten as was some of the more progressive stuff that happened in the 80’s and most definitely under Clark’s government.

      If you missed it, I’m truly over wankers like the author of that blog.

      • CLEANGREEN says:

        100% XRAY.

      • Kevin says:

        Well said,the National governments over the last 60 odd years have been nothing more than a handbrake on New Zealand sociality and the econom
        Yes a significant sector of the electorate are politically stupid.The debt National faced entering office was some 18 billion and now 92 billion, what the hell have they achieved in nine years,it’s just disgusting .

        • darth smith says:

          blown up a property bubble
          42 thousand homeless
          highest suicide rate ever
          record poverty
          families cant buy a home feed themselves
          shrinking exports
          health and education cut
          record crime rate
          92 thousand young people not in training or education no future no hope and not paying taxes disaster waiting to happen
          climate change denial
          polluted rivers
          failed to diversify the economy
          sold gen x and y down the river of debt while boomer’s take the lot
          sold our assets for peanuts
          give tax cuts to wealthy then upped gst to pay for it
          cut kiwi saver taxed the employers contribution while allowing property speculators tax free profits
          cut the Cullen fund screwing over future generations
          there corrupt fuckers dirty politics spying threatening there not fit and proper people to hold positions of power.
          they have to go!!!!!!!!

      • Sumsuch says:

        ‘thickos’, ’80s’. You remember what was thrown out in the 80s with the bath-water?

    • PB says:

      This guy is an amateur

      Just for starters, everyone knows it’s “ok” for a National party to raise benefits – Nats suck it up as price of “winning”, throwing some crumbs; but it’s nationwide bloody murder for a Labour party to consider it.

    • Strypey says:

      Funnily enough Philip F, I do remember David Lange. He was the man who publicly stared down a global super power over the issue of nuclear weapons. Yes, Rogernomics was a terrible betrayal of the labour movement and the working class, a betrayal not dissimilar Napoleon’s betrayal of the Animal Farm revolution, in which Lange played a role not dissimilar to that of Snowball. Still, the movement he championed in international fora spared Aotearoa the huge public health damage and clean-up bills that have plagued communities in the US, Japan, Germany, and the former USSR countries, where nuclear facilities were built.

      Clark’s government, for all its *many* failings, prevented the privatization of the state highway network planned by the Shipley/ Birch government, and undid their privatization of ACC. They also made sure the country dodged another bullet of environtal risk, with the moratorium on environmental release of GMOs, and the plugging of the huge GE hole in the RMA with the HSNO Act. Now since you, Philip F, thought the concerns raised about GMO release were a middle class “moral panic”, you might not be so impressed by the latter, but I hope you would acknowledge the significance of the former.

      But in referencing any of this history, the good policy outcomes and the bad ones, it’s important to remember the party led by Little/ Adern/ Robertson is a beast of a different stripe. It’s a result of a constitutional revolution inside Labour, shifting significant power away from the caucus of neo-liberal dags that dominated it under Goff and Shearer, and into the hands of a growing grassroots membership, who together with the unions now effectively choose the party’s leader. Its bitter reverse-nostalgia to judge the current Labour party by any of its neo-liberal hijackers, many of whom long ago left for ACT, or for “professional” positions in the global finance and philanthropy bureaucracy (or to become Mayor of Auckland).

      The Labour platform offered to the public in October 2017 is not that of the Labour party led by Lange/ Palmer/ Douglas, nor the Labour Party led by Clark/ Cullen, any more than it’s the platform of the National party led by Bolger/ Shipley/ Birch. Those claiming 2017 Labour is “neo-liberal” need to quote from 2017 policy to back up that claim, otherwise they’re just making cynical noise that can lead to nothing but another 3 years of drinking acid under the NatACTs.

      • lloyd jordan says:

        one word CORNGATE makes your blither about clark worthless

      • Sumsuch says:

        I think demo-crats are never about change of government–for better or worse, it is always revolution. Sometimes people aren’t in the mood. Who or what roars for revolution now? There is no Corbyn’s heart or Sander’s heart and voice here. No one who roars for us.

  1. Zack Brando says:

    … ‘youth rise up’ … that would require actual policies and a vision coming out of Labour. Yes, child poverty is bad but children can’t vote. Yes, Labour say they want to help families but that does’t address youth issues.

    Labour want affordable housing, houses priced around $500,000 – the youth collectively roll their eyes. Under National the youth will at least get an increase in their accommodation supplements. Labour can lament and wish for the youth vote all day long … not gonna happen.

    Labour would rather see youth put before the courts than legalize cannabis. Labour want more police to deal with the youth. I’m personally still blocked by Labour from commenting on their facebook page. Frankly, if National weren’t doing such a poor job I’d expect to see Labour under 20%.

    Labour was the Party that got behind the Prostitution Reform Act, now Labour’s new Christchurch Central candidate Duncan Webb is publicly criticizing central city sex workers. You will never get the youth vote in this election – not gonna happen.

  2. patricia bremner says:

    Thank you Martyn. The truth is getting through, bit by bit.
    Come on, join the movement for change. Donate, speak up, Vote!!

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      yes martyn & Patricia,

      I will never give up hope, and look at the PM swanning around the Cook Islands today offering 15 million to them when we see our Kiwi people dying of expose outside or living in cars.

      Shame on this toxic man Bill English he is a harbinger of total ruin of our society and must go this september.

  3. Mike in Auckland says:

    Yes, the poll published by TV3 and that horrible little monster called Paddy Gower, was truly depressing:

    http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/06/poll-labour-crumbles-falling-towards-defeat.html

    But thinking about it, one can conclude it was one of those polls where they simply did not get it right, as the group of persons polled may not have been sufficiently representative of the population, or it was taken at a time as the Nats got a bit of a high from the Budget bribes.

    So with this one now out, it seems we are none the wiser, what the actual mood out there is, it may be one way or the other, or somewhere in between.

    I remember another poll gave the Maori Party 4 percent, which was also nonsensical, as the later one out a week or so ago had them back on about one percent.

    We must not feel discouraged and simply look ahead and do what is right, that is vote this government out in September, and offer the opposition a chance as the alternative.

    The UK has shown what can be achieved, by not falling victim to the misleading polls and the biased MSM reporting.

  4. Kim dandy says:

    Polls smolls – actions speak louder that words.
    Corbyn and his party produced a ‘people friendly’ manifesto – then took it on the road to promote it. The People (especially younger) of the U.K found corbyn genuine ( rare for a POLITICAN ) and liked what the labour manifesto had to offer.
    So the right policies and right leading personally = lots and lots of votes.
    Sounds simple enough….

  5. XRAY says:

    For National to win it is vital that Labour/Greens looked like they’ve lost before the race is begun. This encourages the non vote hugely and that is the name of the game. Newshub will not be the last unfortunately.

    I’m not saying the Newshub polled numbers were incorrect in themselves but there are ways at arriving at a pre-determined number that manipulative people in the right places can easily influence.

    And anything to do with Mediaworks should be taken with a grain of salt because they sold its soul to Joyce when he bailed them out with our money and Labour snubbed Gower. Another gotcha moment for the “journo’s”

  6. Petercvs says:

    Do these polls still only sample households with a landline?
    A lot of low income households no longer have a landlines.
    This causes these polls to favour National.

  7. CLEANGREEN says:

    True XRAY 100%

    As it is a fact that Steven Joyce sold his flimsy very shady local media he bought up very cheaply by buying the (ZBs AM radio NZ wide which were the taxpayer owned public radio media) and then sold it onto Mediaworks after wards and cut a deal to loan them $25million to stay afloat.

    “Mediaworks should be taken with a grain of salt because they sold its soul to Joyce when he bailed them out with our money”

  8. saveNZ says:

    One of the horrifying plans of the Natz is to change our state housing to the UK style ‘social housing’ that’s just burned alive women and children and entire families in London. The Kensington council is apparently sitting on a 300 million pound contingency fund, so it wasn’t a lack of funds that led to the disaster. The absence of any sort of fire safety in 2017 is scary enough, but it also is looking like the recent 8.5 million pound refurbishment of new cladding to gentrify the area might be the cause of the inferno.

    The first clue National are doing this is always in their name. They are changing the name from Labour’s ‘state housing’ to National’s ‘social housing’.

    They are then selling off or even giving it away to private developers, government ‘friendly’ charities, government friendly allies, so the state house land is changed from affordable housing for the most vulnerable, to profit driven development opportunities to opportunists who after leaky building will be only too willing to go with the cheapest options.

    The next wave of Natz will be to put some sort of housing ‘management’ company in (which of course will be paid for) for the government and council to hide from any responsibility for the development and it’s effects.

    We all know the Natz are incapable of any original idea, so if you want to know where they are going on housing and in their overall policy plan, it’s pretty easy to follow the clues in their Tory and Republican buddies – remove human rights, remove environmental rights, remove government responsibility to society for their polices to profit driven intermediaries,.

    To gauge the results, look at the USA and UK, citizens in the same country or community at war or totally removed from each other and being burnt alive in ones recently refurbished social housing home, while 200 fire appliances wait helplessly at the bottom.

    Here’s what’s happened with housing in the UK

    Grenfell Tower will forever stand as a rebuke to the right

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/16/grenfell-tower-rebuke-right-rampant-inequality

  9. Cemetery Jones says:

    Saw this last night, good to balance out the Reid result.

  10. Louis says:

    Polls aside, in all good conscience no one in their right minds could think National has been a good open and fair successful government after the last 9 years. It would be a dereliction of civic responsibility to allow these clowns to remain in power.

  11. Jono says:

    i bet this poll will be buried by the MSM. They will be reluctant to feature it on the 6pm news slot. But we also know National usually achieves votes of 5% less than they poll. So they currently poll at best 42% which agrees with this poll. Its interesting…

    • Mike in Auckland says:

      Indeed, no mention of this poll on either major NZ Freeview channel, not on TV3 and not on TV1, strange that. But they probably have no business contract with UMR. The master who pays gets his message across, that is the sign of the times we live in.

    • Sumsuch says:

      The last 2 elections were very close run things actually.

  12. Andrew says:

    Love the delusion in this echo chamber 🙂

    Little is at 7% in the preferred PM stakes.

    He’s just Cunliffe MkII – a union hack foisted on the caucus against its will.

    • Mike the Lefty says:

      The echoes you hear Andrew are the sounds of your own fears vibrating in side you whenever you hear the words “Jeremy Corben”.

      • CLEANGREEN says:

        Andrew you are showing fear alright, maybe you are worried about no support from Winston who has vowed not to join your toxic club of tories.

        You are screwed!!!!!

    • Little was elected by the Labour membership, Andrew. You know, it’s a thing where people get to choose. It’s called democracy.

      Try it sometime.

      • darth smith says:

        well said frank

        • Andrew says:

          I’m the last guy to complain over Labour knee-capping itself

          But hey, that’s fine, it’s your party, but you’ve been in opposition for the last three terms partly because of that.

          Little has never won an electoral seat. He tried to get elected in his home town but the dislike of him is so great he increased National’s majority in the seat!

      • Louis says:

        National people do not know what democracy is. National’s membership do not get the right to choose.

        • Andrew says:

          Louis:

          If the unions did not get a vote in the last leadership election, Grant Robertson would have beaten Andrew Little by 56% to 44%.

          Enjoy your ‘democracy’

          • Louis says:

            Andrew Little won fair & square. Those that had a say did enjoy a robust democratic process thank you very much. Caucus 40% Membership 40% Unions 20%. As you can see, impossible to win on the union vote alone. Getting back to the point that you want to shy away from is that National lack democracy.

            • Andrewo says:

              Louis, democracy is the process we have enshrined in Parliament. Quite how each party selects its leadership is entirely their choice.

              All I am saying is that Labour’s current selection process is doing the party a disservice because it has repeatedly delivered poor quality leaders who lose elections.

          • bert says:

            Enjoy your smoko breaks and your holidays do you Andrew? Hypocrite.

          • Mike the Lefty says:

            Andrew you apparently prefer National’s way of choosing leaders without consulting the party membership.
            They exist purely to pay National Party subs and tell the Party hierarchy how great thou art.
            If you prefer sheep to real people, that is your affair.

  13. Mike the Lefty says:

    Naturally, National’s response is to issue an anonymous opinion piece on stuffy.co.nz which claims that National’s re-election chances are 110% and Andrew Little should concede defeat now.
    What a bunch of tossers.
    It is time we showed them where the strength of NZ really is, and it isn’t in these National Party stenographers.
    We have two words for Stuffyou.co.nz, Andrew, David See-through and the rest of the idiot brigade – Jeremy Corbin.
    Be afraid trolls, be very afraid!

  14. David says:

    I’ll vote for any party that can maintain interest rates,if the interest rates go up by 3 or 4 % I and my family will be the new homeless/beneficiaries and there probably will be many voters out there with the same self centered basic concerns.

    • darth smith says:

      bad news for you government doesn’t control interest rates even the reserve bank has limited control the banks in new Zealand have sourced alot of funds off shore so as the interest curve increases internationally interest rates go up. new Zealand is at mercy of the international debt markets its one of the effects of our fire economy. there has been a massive capital miss allocation into the housing market classic sign of ponnzi finance blowing up a dangerous housing bubble. get your debt down as low as possible while you can. i want high interest rates personalty because of that risk and currency debasement so my vote is for higher interest rates savers are being ripped off . the higher the risk the higher interest rates should be as compensation for that risk. on default of loans

      • Kevin says:

        The government doesn’t seem to control much at all,however if a government intervenes in the markets to the point where investment finance is more difficult to procure then the result could be a significant rise in interests rates ,which will be devastating to a significant number of borrowers.
        Any government brave enough to try to make housing more affordable especially in Auckland won’t be a government for long.As for reducing debt I believe a significant percentage of mortgage borrowers are interest only this suggest they simply don’t have a lot of savings, if any.

    • Dougal says:

      David – can I ask who you voted for at the last two elections?

      I’m interested to know if you voted for National.

      • David says:

        No sorry it was Labour and has been since 1978,although at times it has been difficult to tell the difference between Labour and National.

  15. Marcus says:

    Does anyone notice when Labour/Greens are ahead of National in the polls the MSM still bleat on about how Labour is so far behind National.
    The MSM still haven’t cottoned on to the fact that Labour and the Greens have a working relationship for this election.
    They sedom mention the Maori Party, ACT or Peter Neilson, either. Do they suppose National does everything on its own? (Probably)
    Do the MSM still think our election is FPP?
    I wouldn’t be surprised. They are so busy sucking up to National they forget about what is going on around them.