Latest TV One Poll, why National should be worried and Labour’s 4 secret weapons for the election

By   /   June 11, 2017  /   12 Comments

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This time in the election cycle out from 2014 the Nets were polling 50% in the same One Network News Poll, some Polls in that month had National at 54%. This was the month the NZ Herald claimed Cunliffe had lied about the dirty politics fake news story they were running about Donghua Liu.

This is Andrew Little, he should be the next Prime Minister of NZ

With so much on, I almost forgot the latest TV One Poll.

Willie Jackson has done a great analysis, here’s mine.

National (49%), Labour (30%), Greens (9%), NZ First (9%), The Opportunities Party (1%), ACT (1%) and the Maori Party (1%)

It is no surprise at all that National are on 49%, the Poll was taken in the immediate afterglow of the $20 budget bribe. The real criticism of how empty that budget was took a week to get out so this sugar high of a poll needs to be taken into account to understand why National shot up.

That $20 extra a week will start to seem far less favourable when the underfunding of Health, Education and Housing affordability are taken into account.

The thing however is that even with the shooting up of the numbers for National from the Budget, it’s just not enough and this will be frightening National Party strategists because the Nets have a history of dropping hard on election day.

This time in the election cycle out from 2014 the Nets were polling 50% in the same One Network News Poll, some Polls in that month had National at 54%. This was the month the NZ Herald claimed Cunliffe had lied about the dirty politics fake news story they were running about Donghua Liu.

So take that 49% and remove anything from 3 to 7 points from it and National start looking vulnerable.

This Poll has ended the silliness that the Maori Party are in any special position, it will be a struggle for them to get Marama Fox in on these numbers and they may be taking MANA Party support for granted.

The Greens are in trouble. TOP is taking the solid cannabis vote from them while the older activist base are still recoiling from the middle class sorority club they’ve morphed into. This was always a danger for the Greens, but with the top shelf youth candidates they’ve amassed they’ve got little other choice but to run that strand as hard as they can.

NZ First are priming themselves to leapfrog the Greens and become the 3rd largest political party in Parliament. The only thing that stops this will be God striking Winston down, so unless the Greens start sacrificing vegans to Gaia, they’re claim to power by being the 3rd largest political party becomes irrelevant.

Labour will be relieved. Even as National sprung up from the budget, Labour didn’t go down, they held at 30. To have a chance of leading the next Government Labour needs 33%, to be the next Government they need 35%.

Can they do that?

I think Labour have 4 secret weapons at their disposal that can get them the extra points.

Ground game: I’ve had a look inside their ground game and the results they are getting back are pretty amazing. Expect to see a large advances in the party vote for Labour inside Auckland. One of Labour’s weaknesses in the past has been vote splitting by their supporters. The two tick message is being driven home to supporters this time around. Look to see large support from Auckland’s Indian, Maori and Pacifica communities for Labour. Union voters are being targeted like never before and if those tactics pay off Labour has a real chance of surprising many pundits.

Jacinda: Her appeal and popularity can’t be ignored. Labour’s entire advertising campaign is built upon her and Little, this is going to be a unique campaign tactic and when placed against English and Bennett is a clear winner.

Little in the debates: Andrew Little is far more impressive than he’s been painted by the mainstream media. Corbyn’s rise in the polls coincided with the media obligations of balance, the same will happen here once the campaign kicks off. Little will impress in those debates and surprise an electorate who have low expectations.

Policy: Labour have some policy weapons to launch for the election that will generate real attention

 

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12 Comments

  1. Red Buzzard says:

    …they should hammer the health underfunding issue …especially for the NZ elderly who have paid for it with taxes all their lives…to capture the elderly vote, who do actually vote

    …they should also offer big sweetners to the tertiary students if they want the youth vote

    ….and hammer overseas owners of NZ housing with such enormous taxes that they relinquish precious scarce NZ housing for Nzers

    ….also hammer immigration from certain countries

    Keep the message short and simple ! …(health , education , housing for New Zealanders, cut immigration from certain countries)

  2. Red Buzzard says:

    Labour need to think…”what would Norm Kirk do?”

    …to get back to their roots

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      100% Red Buzzard

      Labour need to gravitate back towards being the “workers party” and caring about the dying provinces now!!!!!!!

      Corbyn made it a very successful plea to the Northern regions of UK who were similarly damaged by London navel gazing and leaving the other regions behind.

      This is exactly what we are now doing every day it seems over only concentrating on Auckland’s woes while we in HB are going to the dogs ver our road freight transport woes, as we now are the most road gridlocked truck narrow road structure in NZ now with an average of over 2300 trucks every day 24/7 killing or suburban communities and our air quality worse than Auckland now.

      The was a submission given to HB regional land transport committee on Friday 9th June 2017. It tells a worse picture than Auckland now.

      Deputation to HB Regional Land Transport Committee
      Friday 9th June 2017

      For many years I have been involved in a number of community groups seeking reasonable mitigation against excessive noise and pollution (carbon emissions and tyre dust) for residents living in close proximity of the HB Expressway; this dates from the planning of the Kennedy Road overbridge.

      Over the years we consulted with a town planner, a lawyer and the Environment Commissioner, and lobbied Councils, Politicians, and this committee.

      What we achieved was:-
      A wooden fence placed at the rear of Clarence Cox Crescent by Napier City Council.
      Screening vegetation planted by HB Regional Council.
      Quiet road surface provided by the then CEO of Transit NZ.

      Since 2006 no further mitigation measures have taken place.

      In 2014, we found that we lost the benefit of the quiet road surface when NZTA covered over it in an attempt to hold off re-surfacing as long as possible. We found this out after the fact, and met with NZTA, only to be told it would be 2-3 years before re-surfacing.

      Over 10 years since these mitigation measures were put in place, traffic on the expressway has increased significantly, particularly the heavy traffic. Port traffic, for instance, has doubled and is forecast to continue to do so with port expansion. So mitigation measures should be increasing, not being stripped away.
      Other areas, such as Marine Pde and Georges Dr complained about heavy traffic and got it moved from their area. There has been a general trend to push the heavy traffic on to the Expressway. We complain but get nothing. We accept that we can’t move it, but we want mitigation; this is a residential area too.

      What was reasonable mitigation 10 years ago would be less than adequate now, and a pittance 10 years from now.

      Unfortunately, during this time, the focus has become more on economic performance and less on environmental and social well being.

      In March 2016, after being told resurfacing was still 2 years away a deputation was made to this committee, by Citizens , about concerns regarding the expressway, the volume and size of heavy vehicles and resulting pollution.
      The Chairman asked (NZTA) to meet with the residents and report back to the next RTC meeting.
      This meeting took place in April, but by the June RTC meeting, the Manager had moved from his job and no report was made.

      When we meet with NZTA we are typically asked what it is we want, and then get told why it can’t be done. We understand that the local office can’t make the decisions, that only happened when the CEO came up and took ownership of the problem.

      NZTA works on theories and modelling, but we, the residents, live with the reality.
      2015 data from NZTA shows 2-3 heavy vehicles per hour between 2-5am.
      Our monitoring in 2017 shows 138 heavy vehicles in that same 3 hour time frame.
      (NZTA 2015 data, midnight to 8am, 130-140 trucks. Our data 2017 – 481 trucks, 12-8am)
      our data midnight to noon 3 times that of NZTA 2015 figures, we are looking at 2200-2300 trucks per day.
      People in Wellington tell us that the concrete safety barriers on the sides of the overbridge act as noise barriers.
      The residents can tell you that there are no concrete safety barriers on the Kennedy Rd overbridge.
      They were included in the plans for the Meeanee overbridges when they realised they could not get away with the same cheap job again.
      Last month we were advised that there may be an opportunity to resurface the Kennedy Road Overbridge section of the expressway early this summer. That is promising, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet and we don’t know to what extent. The Westminster Avenue section is just as important as the Clarence Cox Crescent and Downing Avenue sections.
      Once the quiet surface has been reinstated, we will only be back to where we were 10 years ago, we then need to move forward with further mitigation to compensate for the increasing traffic.

      So, I’m not going to offer any more suggestions, I’m simply saying that we need the members of this committee to work together to find solutions.“This committee has access to the experts – the planners, the designers, the engineers, the builders – you know the problems, you find the solutions”.
      And to the councillors, “you are our representatives, you advocate for us locally and in Wellington”.
      The appropriate decision makers need to come up here and meet with the residents, talk to them, listen to them and see the problems first hand, and then address the problems.
      There are different issues on different sections of the expressway.

      I’m not here to prove our case again, that was done back in 2005 with PCE report and the subsequent retrofitting of low noise surface. The problem has not gone away, it just needs to be addressed.

      Some years ago when then Deputy Prime Minister, Michael Cullen and Transit NZ CEO, Robin Dunlop visited the area, they thought all the houses on the expressway side of Clarence Cox Crescent should not have been built, then we would have a proper buffer zone – now landowners (not necessarily residents) are getting consents for building on the back of these sections, right up against the expressway. Unfortunately, there will be people desperate enough to live in them.

      We also get complaints of trucks using horns during night/early morning hours at Kennedy Rd overbridge, it has been a designated area for horn blasting from trucks for years. The frequency and regularity is more than just for emergency purposes and disruptive to sleep patterns of residents, many children.
      Other places have more regulation for unnecessary horn use, and I’m sure it would cover the cost to police it.

    • Sam Sam says:

      New Zealanders should be well versed in what Norman Kirk thought because the National party is totally against revolutionary reform leading to peace and prosperity. Just try and get some one from a government delartment on the phone for a quick leason in snobbery. Or was that highway robbery.

    • lloyd jordan says:

      he would bash the bikies and bring in dawn raids, any other clever suggestions

    • Patrick says:

      Apart from “taking the bikes off the bikies” setting up a wooden toy business on the West Coast and creating the satellite town of Rolleston, south of Christchurch which took an earthquake to get it going what other clever ideas of his would you suggest?
      Big Norm was a good guy and wewere all shocked at his death, but not great on good ideas.

  3. J S Bark J S Bark says:

    You didn’t mention the fifth secret weapon, Bomber.

    True left wing policies and an end to neo-liberal governance.

    Oh wait…

    That was Corbyn not Little.

    Ah well, same old same old I guess…

  4. Seaweed says:

    He may be Little, but WE are many

  5. esoteric pineapples says:

    I think the Green’s position at around 9 percent in this poll was largely because of forces outside their control. Gareth Morgan was always going to suck away some of the green vote as some people like to be told the same message by white middle class males.

    New Zealand First’s rise to possibly leap frog the Greens has nothing to do with the Greens and not even much to do with New Zealand First. It is a protest vote amongst conservatives who don’t even know what the party (as opposed to Winston Peters) actually stands for and who most of its candidates are. It’s a shell party that will end up being whatever those who manage to take ownership of it want it to be, with people who vote for the party having no say or knowledge.

    The Green Party is a party that has survived despite everything rather than because of any support it has had from anyone else other than its members. It will be around well after New Zealand First peters out.

    And the other point worth noting is that ithe Green Party is the only unequivably left wing part in New Zealand to vote for that will get MPs into Parliament at the next election. Labour can’t even decide yet if it would support a publicly funded, advert free TV station yet. That’s how progressive it is so far.

  6. Andrewo says:

    Martyn, you’re dreaming

    Little is another union imposed loser, like the last two labour leaders.

    • Strypey says:

      The last two Labour leaders were Davids Cunliffe and Shearer. Neither one had any background in the union movement. Both were elected leader primarily because of the greater role the general membership were given in elected Labour leaders after the collapse of the Clark regime. Your premise is blatantly false, therefore your conclusion is laughable and irrelevant. Crawl back to your Crosby-Textor masters troll, and tell them their time is rapidly running out.