This is Andrew Little, he should be the next Prime Minister of NZ
With so much on, I almost forgot the latest TV One Poll.
Willie Jackson has done a great analysis, here’s mine.
National (49%), Labour (30%), Greens (9%), NZ First (9%), The Opportunities Party (1%), ACT (1%) and the Maori Party (1%)
It is no surprise at all that National are on 49%, the Poll was taken in the immediate afterglow of the $20 budget bribe. The real criticism of how empty that budget was took a week to get out so this sugar high of a poll needs to be taken into account to understand why National shot up.
That $20 extra a week will start to seem far less favourable when the underfunding of Health, Education and Housing affordability are taken into account.
The thing however is that even with the shooting up of the numbers for National from the Budget, it’s just not enough and this will be frightening National Party strategists because the Nets have a history of dropping hard on election day.
This time in the election cycle out from 2014 the Nets were polling 50% in the same One Network News Poll, some Polls in that month had National at 54%. This was the month the NZ Herald claimed Cunliffe had lied about the dirty politics fake news story they were running about Donghua Liu.
So take that 49% and remove anything from 3 to 7 points from it and National start looking vulnerable.
This Poll has ended the silliness that the Maori Party are in any special position, it will be a struggle for them to get Marama Fox in on these numbers and they may be taking MANA Party support for granted.
The Greens are in trouble. TOP is taking the solid cannabis vote from them while the older activist base are still recoiling from the middle class sorority club they’ve morphed into. This was always a danger for the Greens, but with the top shelf youth candidates they’ve amassed they’ve got little other choice but to run that strand as hard as they can.
NZ First are priming themselves to leapfrog the Greens and become the 3rd largest political party in Parliament. The only thing that stops this will be God striking Winston down, so unless the Greens start sacrificing vegans to Gaia, they’re claim to power by being the 3rd largest political party becomes irrelevant.
Labour will be relieved. Even as National sprung up from the budget, Labour didn’t go down, they held at 30. To have a chance of leading the next Government Labour needs 33%, to be the next Government they need 35%.
Can they do that?
I think Labour have 4 secret weapons at their disposal that can get them the extra points.
Ground game: I’ve had a look inside their ground game and the results they are getting back are pretty amazing. Expect to see a large advances in the party vote for Labour inside Auckland. One of Labour’s weaknesses in the past has been vote splitting by their supporters. The two tick message is being driven home to supporters this time around. Look to see large support from Auckland’s Indian, Maori and Pacifica communities for Labour. Union voters are being targeted like never before and if those tactics pay off Labour has a real chance of surprising many pundits.
Jacinda: Her appeal and popularity can’t be ignored. Labour’s entire advertising campaign is built upon her and Little, this is going to be a unique campaign tactic and when placed against English and Bennett is a clear winner.
Little in the debates: Andrew Little is far more impressive than he’s been painted by the mainstream media. Corbyn’s rise in the polls coincided with the media obligations of balance, the same will happen here once the campaign kicks off. Little will impress in those debates and surprise an electorate who have low expectations.
Policy: Labour have some policy weapons to launch for the election that will generate real attention