The right have celebrated the so called $1.8billion surplus announced by Bill English this week.
A surplus you say?
Really?
And how do we have this surplus then?
We have this ‘surplus’ by underfunding Welfare, Education, Housing and Health.
We have this ‘surplus’ because of National’s open door policy from cheap migration and the 220 000 student/work scam visas we allow in each year.
We have this ‘surplus’ from borrowed cash and a national debt now at NZ$ 114,701,442,395
All National have done is carve off and underfund public services so that they have this ‘surplus’ which they will now hand back as tax cuts to the richest NZers in the 2017 election.
Robbing the poor to pay the richest would have outraged egalitarian NZ once upon a time, but now the middle classes are all property investors, this type of sophistry is not only embraced, it is celebrated as amazing economic stewardship.
When does this greed and self inflated sense of importance end? When the market pops and the crash that should have happened in 2007 ruptures through global markets.
When will that happen? Possibly this month…
Market crash warning: Red alert issued
A prominent analyst has issued his second warning over the growing risk of a severe fall in stock markets.
In a new report, HSBC’s head of technical analysis, Murray Gunn, warns that recent selling on Wall Street has been worryingly broad-based.
“With the US stock market selling off aggressively on October 11, we now issue a RED ALERT,” Gunn wrote, according to Bloomberg.
“The possibility of a severe fall in the stock market is now very high.”
…John Key’s vacant aspiration works when you think you have wealth. The illusion of wealth created by Key’s property bubble only works if he can keep expanding the bubble. Once it pops, the middle classes remember they are citizens because they can’t afford to be consumers any longer.
Hmmm… I read that article in the NZ Herald today too, …. so I reckon its time for a song , … in particular the last verse from Jim Staffords ‘Wild wood Flower ‘ – slightly re-adapted.
‘All good things gotta come to an end,
And it’s the same with the Wall Street title deeds.
One day this feller from Washington came by,
And he spied em and turned white as a sheet.
Then they dug and they burned,
And they burned and they dug,
And they killed all our cute title deeds.
Then they drove away,
And we just screamed and raved …
Sittin’ there on that sack of worthless title deeds! ‘
Boing , Boing , Boing !
Y’all come back now , Y’hear?
Yep, robbing Peter to pay Paul = not a real surplus. Well said Martyn!!!! That says it like it really is.
Bill English a safe pair of hands at work, we are finally in the black after all these years, Bill and JK really did save us from the worst of the Global Financial Crisis.
professor Steve keen says that private house hold debt is far more dangerous than government debt and new zealand house holds are saturated in debt the fools have used there homes as atm machines all the debt collateralised against the house price does anyone else out there feel as i do as a nation we are sitting on a ticking bomb.there been no comment on kiwi saver accounts being opened up to seizure if a debtor defaults on home loans . but dear leader says all is well the rock star economy is back.whats half a trillian dollars nothing right!!!!
debt is accelerating not decreasing
even the banks are nervous from the herald yesterday http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11727593
when it pops the tears are going to flow 1.8 billion (book cooked ) surplus will be meaningless
Some figures and a useful graph:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/external-debt
“External Debt in New Zealand increased to 258477 NZD Million in the second quarter of 2016 from 255189 NZD Million in the first quarter of 2016. External Debt in New Zealand averaged 170316.72 NZD Million from 1993 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 258477 NZD Million in the second quarter of 2016 and a record low of 67673 NZD Million in the fourth quarter of 1993. External Debt in New Zealand is reported by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.”
The debt clock showing “national debt”:
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/newzealand
Being at about $24,671 debt per citizen
An interesting Herald article on this:
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=11651648
“New Zealand is sitting on a half-a-trillion-dollar debt bomb and Kiwis are increasingly treating their houses like cash machines, piling on the debt as they watch the value of their properties soar.
Reserve Bank figures show household debt, excluding investment property, has risen 23 per cent in the past five years to $163.4 billion. Incomes have risen only 11.5 per cent.
Households are now carrying a debt level that is equivalent to 162 per cent of their annual disposable income – higher than the level reached before the global financial crisis.”
Truth is, over the last decades most NZ governments have gradually shifted debt from the state to private persons, for instance by forcing students to take out loans for getting an education. They have also done this by cutting back state services and outsourcing them to private contractors.
User pays were introduced, SOEs have been sold off, state assets have been sold (remember the partial privatisation of energy companies).
They are now selling state houses and are also outsourcing Housing NZ homes to be taken over by “social housing” providers.
No wonder the state is doing ok, although even the state debt has increased. But the bulk of debt is now hanging over private persons, even WiNZ beneficiaries are increasingly forced to manage affairs by taking on debt, also in the form of advances from WINZ, which are mostly repayable.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201801902/beneficiaries-$417-million-in-debt-to-winz
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/80094682/Auckland-family-of-10-appeals-78-000-Work-and-Income-debt
And recently Bennett and Tolley stood up in Parliament, boasting that up to a weeks motel debts will be written off, as from a month or so ago. They did not mention that some have to stay in emergency motel or other payable accommodation for longer than that.
Does anybody here know that WINZ pays only $300 in grants for dental treatment a year? Only another $200 can be granted on top of that, but will be repayable. Only in exceptional circumstances give they higher advances, which must be repaid.
Repayments come from a beneficiary’s ordinary benefits, that means a person does basically have to cut back in other essential spending on food or clothing, to pay back special needs grants for dental treatment!
We know that many need dental treatment that costs more than the not repayable $300 a year, and for instance a crown costs about $1,600. So those on benefits, who have no additional income, they are forced to either forgo dental treatment, or pay for advances over long periods, week by week, from money meant to cover their food and other needs.
Bill English is though not talking to beneficiaries, who he rather all sees put to work, even the sick and disabled, he talks to the better off middle class and upper class people, who tend to vote Nats. He wants to offer them a carrot called tax cuts, hence this BS talk and spin about a fabricated surplus.
It is not an honestly achieved surplus, the poorest of the poor help pay for it, by having benefits and rights to entitlements denied. The working poor pay for it, by being forced off benefits into low paid, casual, temporary and on call work, often not paying essentials.
Those paying GST pay for it, as income taxes were lowered a few years back, while GST was increased by 25 percent.
As sadly a million have lost all faith or interest in what politicians do, and no longer bother voting, English can bullshit is way through by promising Nat voters tax cuts, so they can afford their overseas holidays and new flash cars from Europe, Japan and the US.
This whole stuff makes me angry, and it makes me angry that the useless mainstream media make no mention of the complete picture we have before us. Lies, lies, deceit and manipulation rule this country, the rot starts from the top down.
Glad you bought up dentist bills. The low waged have trouble paying these too and can’t get any government assistance at all (not that I am griping about assistance for those on benefits). You know and feel you are poor when you have a bad toothache and you have no money to go to the dentist. That’s happened to me. I had an abscess and ended up having the side of my face balloon out. Tooth abscesses are extremely dangerous, especially if they occur in the upper teeth as they easily lead to blood poisoning that can easily get to the brain from there. Abscesses were one of the main causes of death in the old days.
People often go on about the cost of going to the doctor and various governments have attempted to keep the cost of this down. But the cost of going to the doctor pales in comparison with going to the dentist. And often the need is much more urgent.
More on debt, most of it being household debt:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-graphs/key-graph-household-debt
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=11651660
“New Zealand is poised to exceed half a trillion dollars worth of gross debt as mortgage lending accelerates at its fastest rate since the global financial crisis.
Averaging more than $100,000 for every New Zealander, increasingly alarmed economists and market watchers fear soaring house prices may be taking us into bubble territory.
Lending for housing is growing at an annualised rate of 8.3 per cent – a level not seen since 2008 (when lending rates were on their way down from pre-GFC peaks above 10 per cent).”
Already last year this was reported:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/67032939/mortgage-debt-tops-200-billion
That makes New Zealand one of the most indebted developed nations now, and during Labour’s last reign there was also a worrying trend of debt growth, as people borrow more for more expensive housing, also use house values as security for borrowing more for consumer goods and so.
When the bubble ever bursts, we will face a hard landing, so Bill English lives with our PM on Planet Key, I suppose, not in our real world:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDscbVWRBCw
Can you please elaborate on the 220,000 student/work scam visas and what is a work scam visa – must be new.
Grow up – there will be no tax cuts.
Why is the national debt so big? Because the govt ( dinna matter which colour) borrowed after the 2008 meltdown to maintain our welfare state.
You would have criticized the borrowing at the time and the welfare state would be in so much better shape if you used your genius to build businesses and employ people.
Why not?
You know everything so you could create hundreds of jobs and pay great wages.
But you won’t because you can’t. Your role is not to create but to criticize,
Something must have happened when you were a little boy to make you such an unhappy adult.
With your attitude to life you would have had no friends at school but such a pity you have turned your self pity into your pathetic, sad attitude
Patrick, why do you rant on about critical posts such as this, by Martyn? Why don’t you go back to Whaleoil or Kiwiblog? See my comments further above about the realities NZ Inc faces, it is not a pretty one. We get sold a “surplus” that was only achieved by shifting debt burdens onto private person’s shoulders.
As for the GFC, New Zealand was facing challenges as all other countries, and hence did some similar things, e.g. borrow and spend to avoid the worst. But we have long moved on, and are still even higher in total debt now.
I suggest you grow up and inform yourself before making such silly comments.
typical nact Patrick you never deal in facts only attack /shoot the messenger
you right wing fanatics do not like reality well sooner or latter reality will dust bubble world
Put back what they have taken from Housing Corporation, District Health Boards and the community care sector. We don’t need nor want tax cuts. What a difference it would make if I could get the surgery I need now. What a difference if someone else with Parkinsons doesn’t have to wait 8 months for a needs assessment like my husband did, and then only get it because he was ill enough to be admitted to hospital. Put the money back where it belongs.
A $1.8 billion surplus can only come from the necessary social services, housing, health, education, welfare etc, condemning the ordinary Kiwi into more struggle for years to come, if there is no change of government in the immediate future.
But hey, Blinglish is already talking about a possible tax cut on the horizon (for Nat’s already wealthy and corrupt cronies), to give the (false) impression NZ is rolling in it, on top of its game! Of course he is. There’s an election coming up sometime within the next twelve months!
The international bankers’ Ponzi scheme continues to work in the western world for the moment. Create money out of thin air and charge interest. Create more money out of thin air to pay the interest. Convert fossil fuels into carbon dioxide to run the entire system. Lie on a continuous basis to the masses.
We know exactly were it is headed, and it’s only a matter of time before the biggest crash in all of history arrives.
Robert Kiyosaki Rich Dad Poor Dad fame has already predicted the big crash coming he’s a smart man and i believe what he says.
You really notice a very self entitled snobby class of people out there in our society. They really don’t care about there fellow man and would walk over a homeless person in the street without batting an eye.
Its a sad endictment on society when people have been created this way. I think inequality is fueling this as people mix in there own circles and have very little to do with people lower down unless they are serving them. Thats my 2 cents for the day.
Prior to the Christchurch earthquakes there was no housing crisis as such, and if there was, little was heard of it.
The “crisis” was created to cover the appalling government handling of the true “crisis” that was the Christchurch earthquake.
John Key was, I find it hard to say, true to his word when he said “Housing Crisis? What Housing Crisis?”
Well put once again Martyn.
English has been reckless in his pursuit of a surplus at all costs to try and prove what competent economic managers they are and offer money back for re election next year and his legacy off course.
He has fiddled the books pinching money from everywhere and “will there or wont there” be tax cuts for 2017.
The arrogance of these people is sickening and the tax cut bribe will help them over the line next year as kiwis have become greedy people and will vote for it and turn their back again on the massive social defecit that is creeping up on them.
Debt down today, Martyn : http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/newzealand
They did a whip around during tea break at the centre for busybody bees.
Big help, big help. And suatvlpeire news of course.
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