TVNZ have put out their latest Poll. National stay on 47%, Labour up to 32%, Greens down to 8% and NZ First up to 10%.
So what is happening?
The Green slump
The Greens slumping should be no great surprise. They seem to have had a terrible political strategy and communications start to the year. Met’s weird ‘we’re not radical’ state of the nation seemed a slap in the face to all those Green Party members who are activists and Dr Invisible James Shaw’s speech in Parliament fell as flat as Met’s Treasury wonk unit that would wonk on wonks. The Greens aren’t sure what they are under the new leadership of a former Coco-Cola consultant and the voters don’t seem to know either.
Someone needs a boot up the bum at Wellington HQ.
Why NZ First is rising?
Here is an excerpt from Facebook from a source looking at the sudden economic pain farmers are going through right now…
The reality for most farmers now is that when they get out of bed they are losing money. They are better to just stay in bed.
When they are in bed they aren’t using power or fuel , so they aren’t losing as much”.
Kerry Adams from DAA chartered accountants states “Down south we’ve got a bank that’s actually taking a lot of action against farmers, telling them they’ve got to sell at the end of the season because they are pulling the funding. “Predictions are that because of this, in calf heifers will be worth 250 to 400 (current price 1250 to 1500) .
We know at least 35 farms that have been told and they carry 500 to 1000 cows each. These farmers are going to be left with huge debt and their only prospect is bankruptcy. (this one bank ) has effectively taken over farms, they have said, we want to know what bills you have got, and we will decide who gets paid or not, effectively freezing their accounts.
One farmer was told his wife who has a 4 week old baby that she is to get someone to look after her baby and go and get a full time job.
“The banks are now running the farms, they’ve taken over
” If one bank has taken this stance it is only going to be a matter of time before they all start.”
They have wiped the value of herds down so farmers equity has disappeared over night. with a flick of a pen , they have made decisions to reduce heard values from 400 to 500 thousand to 200 thousand, and will no longer extend the funding.”
They have just hit the Southland area. for some reason and we don’t know why”.
Currently on seek there have been 4 positions listed for senior relationship managers agri in the past week alone, all for different financial businesses. , what will the potential flow on for the region be, and who is next?
…National’s focus on Dairy and reshaping the economy around selling cheap milk powder to China has fallen on its arse. There are many farmers suffering right now, and they are suffering for implementing a dairy plan championed by National. Those voters hurting now will be screaming come 2017 and it’s from this angry provincial block NZ First is gaining traction the way Winston gained Northland.
The slow Labour Party crawl to victory
Labour are at 32% – if they want a chance to change the Government, they need to be at 35% so 3% in striking distance of where they need to be. This requires a NZ First with 10% and the Greens with anything above 5%. Little and Labour must start rolling out the ideas and policy now to get to that 35% by 2017.
Conclusion:
NZers love John Key as much as a shark loves blood. We shouldn’t be shocked that a vast chunk of middle Nu Zilind don’t understand that the TPPA will rob us of our economic and political sovereignty because most in middle Nu Zilind have no idea what sovereignty even means. What those voters will notice is their property bubble popping and interest rate rises.
The only way you are going to get this stubborn voter block to move is when they start feeling the vicious reforms that have so far been aimed at the weakest members of society (beneficiaries, the low paid and prisoners) starting to impact them. An economic downturn, education cuts and health service shutdowns are what will make those voters start to ask serious questions from this Government.
Labour, NZ First and the Greens have every opportunity to form a Government, but with NZ First gaining at Green expense, the progressive clout of a new Government will be economic, it won’t be cultural or environmental.
I don’t believe New Zealand First is getting the previously Green voters – that’s a very simplistic notion. People who are progressive and dissatisfied with the Greens will be going to Labour who have become slightly more progressive again. New Zealand First will be collecting some of the Labour and National voters.
NZF will be picking up disillusioned National voters?
No real surprises in NZ First’s rise in the polls. Winnie’s Bago is the party of choice for all true National Party supporters and conservatives who want a revolution without revolutionaries.
Muddle New Zulund can’t abide those layabout lefties and getting behind Fonzarelli and his mobsters is their way of feeling dangerous.
Face it folks, when did New Zealand politics ever look awake or even vaguely sentient?
After all as any good tory knows, you gotta stop them bloody Maoris from milking the poor bloody taxpayers somehow.
Lashings of sarcasm here BTW.
Yuck and Ew rather than shock and awe…
When you consider the corporate media in this country are;
Overtly pro National
Who go into bat for them when there are even ripples of discontent
Who will not campaign against anything this government does that negatively effects people
Who participate in smear campaigns for National
Who will NOT ask hard questions……
Then these results are not bad, they are a miracle in what is a true information vacuum in the MSM world, (RNZ at this point is not included).
Labour, Greens and NZ First now must look cohesive and give confidence to voters they are government material because National have done a bang up job of convincing voters otherwise.
Greens on the way down…..I for one have never understood what the hell they stand for except some feel good environmentalism and some feel good lets be nice to people socialism. Metira I much admire, but hell, she should be a left wing Labour MP (I am picking she did not join Labour because they were so far to the right at the time).
Before somebody comes back at me about the “feel good environmentalism” comment, an explanation….the Greens are compromised environmentally because we cannot have our economy as it is today and be “Green”, it is not possible. To say that is un-electable, everybody voting Green will still want their IPhones and 4WD etc, as do the rest of the electorate. For years I have been involved with environmental issues, the people who fight alongside come from diverse political backgrounds. Trying to prevent water coming out of rivers and on to fields and back into the river a cow shit attracts plenty of National party supporters.
While I realize TDB is not representative of all Kiwis’ political preferences, however the poll on the right of this page is telling a completely different story to that of the two recent public polls. Interesting!
Yep! I had the same thought.
‘Who would you vote for if an election was announced tomorrow?’
Greens (29%, 1,190 Votes)
Labour (26%, 1,097 Votes)
National (17%, 718 Votes)
NZ First (16%, 651 Votes)
So, something crazy is happening here!
National Party Supporters mainly frequent Kiwiblog and Whaleoil Blogsites.
Yeah the MSM and the paid for pollsters like the Penguin are all saying the same thing. We’re not lying, trust us. Trust you? Yeah right, about as far as I could spit against the wind in a hurricane
Once upon a time there was the option “none of the above”.
I wouldn’t vote for any of those listed.
And the Greens? So passe middle class. So pass along and let issues glide below the bubbles. Perhaps if they actually contested an electorate or two they’d be credible. Perhaps.
For what it is worth, here is what I reckon. The bulk of people who have the time to answer pollsters questions are older, without demanding jobs and/or families. Older people tend to be more conservative – except me, but I have never been polled and am unlikely to ever be, seeing as I do not have a landline phone anymore and I reckon there are more and more just like me.
The secret to turning this all around is getting younger people, who have become completely disengaged to take notice, participate and vote, not sure if they will ever feature in polls though, for the same reason I am not.
Quote from Martyn’s post, under ‘Conclusion’:
“NZers love John Key as much as a shark loves blood. We shouldn’t be shocked that a vast chunk of middle Nu Zilind don’t understand that the TPPA will rob us of our economic and political sovereignty because most in middle Nu Zilind have no idea what sovereignty even means. What those voters will notice is their property bubble popping and interest rate rises.
The only way you are going to get this stubborn voter block to move is when they start feeling the vicious reforms that have so far been aimed at the weakest members of society (beneficiaries, the low paid and prisoners) starting to impact them. An economic downturn, education cuts and health service shutdowns are what will make those voters start to ask serious questions from this Government.”
Yes, the still largely comfy, property owning middle class are clinging to their dream of being able to continue to do well under the Key led government, and they ignore the dangers there are. The property speculation and price boom in Auckland is slowing, and the government knows it must do all to avoid a crash, as loss of value will severely affect many owners’ credit rating and ability to finance outstanding debt to banks. So expect that we will continue to have an over-priced property sector, that is also taking place in other cities and regions now.
Re the farmers, yes, the dairy farmers will in high numbers hit the wall, prepare for sales that the banks push for, to foreign “investors”, as the local farm investment market is limited. That will send the signal to the regions that people are increasingly becoming tenants in their own land, and NZ First is likely to gain.
Re the Greens I fear they have indeed been sending mixed messages, under the new co-leadership, that would confuse voters and potential voters. James Shaw has had his good chances, but he has also at other times failed to send the right messages, and his performance seems to be mediocre. I am starting to lose some faith in Metiria, as she often sounds like a broken record. Her stand on poverty issues is respectable, but she needs to also hammer other issues, but she seems to have limited ability to hit out at the government. I think a new female co-leader may be needed, and Marama Davidson may fit that role, after a bit more time of her gaining experience in Parliament.
But I also fear that voters are becoming less concerned with environmental issues, as consumerism has taken hold of the majority of the population, people want their consumer goods and only seem marginally concerned about the environment. A nice, tidy beach for summer is what most want, not more or less, they do not see the damage done by farming, as urbanites only hit the road during holidays, and that is not all of them.
Labour needs to sort itself out more, as having neoliberal minds amongst them, supporting the TPPA, and also favouring some policies the Nats stand for, that continues to present us a divided party and caucus. More new fresh blood is needed for MPs, and I always wonder what some of the present ones actually do for voters and the party, some should not be there.
Carmel Sepuloni has for instance done little as welfare spokesperson, only asked few questions in the House, and seems a bit slow or lazy in doing what she should. I had thought Jacinda was not much use, but compared to here Carmel seems even more useless. The same applies to a few others in caucus.
Time to get this sorted, we are nearing 2017.
Most MP’s are just professional bludgers?
TPPA wont rob us of jobs if the government does not want it it. All that need to happen is deregulate local governments in certain towns and give them specific mandates in that region. And it needs to seed new ideas into the market, using a public over site comity and then 51 percent market entry. I know its going to be illegal to have national pride and SOEs but there is still small wriggle room if a willing government got in.
Iam all for cyclone Winston to do his thing this election and devastate the Nats
Quote from Martyn’s post, under ‘Conclusion’:
“NZers love John Key as much as a shark loves blood. We shouldn’t be shocked that a vast chunk of middle Nu Zilind don’t understand that the TPPA will rob us of our economic and political sovereignty because most in middle Nu Zilind have no idea what sovereignty even means. What those voters will notice is their property bubble popping and interest rate rises.
The only way you are going to get this stubborn voter block to move is when they start feeling the vicious reforms that have so far been aimed at the weakest members of society (beneficiaries, the low paid and prisoners) starting to impact them. An economic downturn, education cuts and health service shutdowns are what will make those voters start to ask serious questions from this Government.”
Yes, the still largely comfy, property owning middle class are clinging to their dream of being able to continue to do well under the Key led government, and they ignore the dangers there are. The property speculation and price boom in Auckland is slowing, and the government knows it must do all to avoid a crash, as loss of value will severely affect many owners’ credit rating and ability to finance outstanding debt to banks. So expect that we will continue to have an over-priced property sector, that is also taking place in other cities and regions now.
Re the farmers, yes, the dairy farmers will in high numbers hit the wall, prepare for sales that the banks push for, to foreign “investors”, as the local farm investment market is limited. That will send the signal to the regions that people are increasingly becoming tenants in their own land, and NZ First is likely to gain.
Re the Greens I fear they have indeed been sending mixed messages, under the new co-leadership, that would confuse voters and potential voters. James Shaw has had his good chances, but he has also at other times failed to send the right messages, and his performance seems to be mediocre. I am starting to lose some faith in Metiria, as she often sounds like a broken record. Her stand on poverty issues is respectable, but she needs to also hammer other issues, but she seems to have limited ability to hit out at the government. I think a new female co-leader may be needed, and Marama Davidson may fit that role, after a bit more time of her gaining experience in Parliament.
But I also fear that voters are becoming less concerned with environmental issues, as consumerism has taken hold of the majority of the population, people want their consumer goods and only seem marginally concerned about the environment. A nice, tidy beach for summer is what most want, not more or less, they do not see the damage done by farming, as urbanites only hit the road during holidays, and that is not all of them.
Labour needs to sort itself out more, as having neoliberal minds amongst them, supporting the TPPA, and also favouring some policies the Nats stand for, that continues to present us a divided party and caucus. More new fresh blood is needed for MPs, and I always wonder what some of the present ones actually do for voters and the party, some should not be there.
Carmel Sepuloni has for instance done little as welfare spokesperson, only asked few questions in the House, and seems a bit slow or lazy in doing what she should. I had thought Jacinda was not much use, but compared to here Carmel seems even more useless. The same applies to a few others in caucus.
Time to get this sorted, we are nearing 2017.
The reality for most farmers now is that when they get out of bed they are losing money. They are better to just stay in bed.
When they are in bed they aren’t using power or fuel , so they aren’t losing as much”.
Yeah, welcome to the world of a low income beneficiary with insecure work.
First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
Good or bad – Can you really trust a poll in this country anymore?
@Kim Dandy
Nope.
Well done to Andrew Little for giving Gerry Brownlee a pat on the back after some twat threw fake shit at Gerry in Christchurch during the quake memorial service. It was a sincere gesture on Andrews part and showed real empathy.
The farmers need to issue bonds to the government that have negative interest.
Sorry to say it, but this whole laisser-faire, “hands-off the economy” approach by Bill English and NACT alliance is about a land-grab again. When farrners go belly-up and have to sell their land, who will be there to buy the land?
Just like the “pristine beach in the Sounds”, the precedent of privatisation and asset sales of National Parks will be applied to farms. The neolibs saw how unpopular the sale of Crafar farms to Chinese interests was and that a new strategy of “do-nothing-in-the-economy-or-provinces” exacerbates the problem of land-grab of farms. Ask anyone in Christchurch and the redzoning and central city corporate debacle was about a land-grab. Disaster economics, except now it’s caused by inaction by NACT, not the movement of tectonic plates.
The NACT alliance will wait till “mum and dad give-a-little investor patriots”, 98% fund the purchase of farms and say they (NACT)
willmight step in at the last minute and offer to put in “a wee bit more”. But it won’t be enough. It won’t ever be enough. The analogy will be like the Auckland Housing market that is shutting out New Zealanders from owning homes (unless you appear or a reality TV programme and win a house). We’ll turn up with our jamjars full of gold-coin donations and be outbid by someone at the back with dark-hair, or someone on a conference call at the back of the auction. Farms will be sold to “overseas investors”.Maybe they’ll bring out a Reality TV “Buy-and-redevelop-a-family-farm” programme. Julie Christie will be able to fly her corporate Key Flag/ fishy tea-towel over that little gem.
Until then, do you think in your wildest dreams that “crowd-funding” to buy a farm, will ever outbid TPPA corporate land grabbers, or Government-sponsored Chinese? We will be colonised without an ISDS lawyer ever going near a tribunal.
Our New Zealand farms staying in New Zealand hands thanks to NACT laisser-faire economics? In your dreams NACT. In our nightmares New Zealand.
Comments are closed.