Phil was always going to run for Auckland Mayoralty, TDB called it, now the focus will be the Mt Roskill by-election…
The hands down favourite for the seat will be the very talented Michael Wood (who incidentally was participating in the City Vision fundraising debate this year). Wood should get the nod and then it’s up to the Mandarins of the Left to see if they can convince NZ First and Greens not to run so it’s a two horse race between National and Labour. If the Greens run, it suggests splits on the Left and if NZ First run it suggests you can’t trust Winston. Labour will need to get both parties on side if they want to be certain of a victory. National will want to apply real pressure here as a safe Labour seat turning any shade of Blue would be a great win for the Government in the lead up to the 2017 election and further sap Labour Party morale.
It’s possible if National place a very strong candidate into the Mt Roskill By-election that they could cause an upset. Goff had 8091 majority but look at the Party vote. National gained 14 275 party votes to Labours weaker 12 086. It’s an electorate that certainly favoured National at the last election and that Goff gained a majority is directly down to the hard work and respect the voters of Mt Roskill have for him personally so Michael Wood can’t take anything at all for granted.
If the Greens and NZ First agree not to run, Mt Roskill will stay a safe Labour seat, but a split vote on the Left could give National a shot they would most certainly take.
…but what if instead of Wood, Andrew Little ran? With Annette King as Deputy, Little has no Auckland representation in his leadership team, running in Auckland would lift his abysmal profile and give Labour some much needed momentum next year when Goff stands down.
The only risk in that strategy is if Little loses.
Things to consider at conference over the weekend.
“The only risk in that strategy is if Little loses”
I predict he wont for that very reason to much risk for someone that has failed to gain his own seat twice and the fallout from another loss would be the finish of him as leader.
Mr Little could prove me wrong and show us he has the fortitude to lead our country (or even Labour) by having a crack or will he be like most of our opposition and sit back safely with his snout in the trough while someone else does the hard work
Good article and absolutely something they should be seriously focusing on although like you my money would be on Wood
Interesting. I would like to see the Greens and NZ First not run to return the favour of the Northland and to prove to all the opposition can and will work together to defeat National.
Labour should then give the Greens something in return next election.
Labour have become weak in Auckland. Having Little run would be good, because he can prove some points.
Labour need to channel that political courage.
I once lived in Mt Roskill, and while I did in the past vote for Phil, that is many years ago, I would no longer. Since he now wants to become mayor of Auckland, which seems to be nothing but personal aspiration and career ambitions, I dread what will become of Mt Roskill.
Goff has dug his own grave, I fear, as he was very “helpful” in getting many new residents settle in his electorate, also supporting some families with refugee and PR applications. Now we have a Mt Roskill that is no longer a bible belt, but a multi culti suburb of Auckland, where there are tens of thousands of highly ambitious immigrants, many with right leaning cultural and social views, who want to make it in NZ.
Nothing wrong with making it in their new home, but many have their own communities that come before the country they immigrated to. They are not pro gay or same sex marriage, they are not pro supporting beneficiaries, they are not pro inclusiveness and supporting the weakest, they are mainly now about themselves, their careers and their own families and communities, and support in increasing numbers Nats and ACT.
I know it since I meet many living there, and visit shops and so there regularly.
The immigration policy followed by former Labour and National go vernments has strongly favoured the conservative minded, career and business focused individuals and communities, they have often NO time for Polynesians and other minorities, and they are largely “family centered” and “self promotion centered”.
They are not the kind of New Zealanders that we used to encourage and grow, I fear, they are also cosmopolitan, who are prepared to pack up any time and move on. So they are not committed to the social security and retirement systems, that are tax based.
Do we want that? Mt Roskill is in danger of going blue or yellow, believe you me, I am not happy about it.
I agree. The type of immigrants the Natz are attracting are increasingly self centred and right wing and probably Mt Roskill is full of them.
It is not a co incidence that the Natz are so pro immigration – it helps them in every way – donations – corruption – changing the political landscape. Not content with hijacking the MSM the Natz are also importing in ‘their sort of voter’.
We have plenty of room for right wing immigrants but no room for refugees who might have a different voting preference.
Yes it would be a hard fight for Mt Roskill for Little but he needs to get used to hard fighting and get some practise in, it if he wants to win the election.
Probably the only way is if the Greens help him out. And that is what many Labour/Green voters want – co operation.
He probably should. They need a candidate with name recognition and the prospect of an important role in parliament, or National will carry that seat. It isn’t the Mt Roskill it was 15 years ago, let alone 30.
‘..The only risk in that strategy is if Little loses..’
indeed..!..
Hmm, interesting idea.
But I can’t see Little, a person who lives and spends all his time in Wellington, wanting to run in Auckland. Besides, Wood is a very promising candidate, and as such I’d be happy to see him run. Mount Roskill may be a different seat now, but he could get in on Goff’s goodwill.
Only Wood looks about 15 and I don’t think ever been an MP before. Could he win?
I bettcha it will be a bloody fight as the Natz could take it – they had more party votes than Labour in the general election for Mt Roskill – blow for Labour strategy if they lose it.
Labour need to really get on their game to keep it. I’m predicting a very fierce battle.
Not really a good time for Phil to leave.
At the last election, Goff won Mt Roskill with a majority of 8,091 votes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_general_election,_2014#Electorate_results)
It is not unfeasible that Little could win it.
We might not even need an Epsom/Ohariu-style accomodation between Labour, NZ First, and the Greens (though it wouldn’t hurt).
I think Little could defiantly win it – Phil obviously did really well but the party votes went towards the Natz.
That is why I think the fight will be fierce.
Good chance to battle it out for Labour and get strategy in place.
and when Little loses it will be so much bigger than a Little loss.
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