The harvest is late
Latest Roy Morgan Poll is depressing reading for progressives. Despite the TPPA, National have jumped up again to 50%.
That National can sign away our political sovereignty and manufacture a budget surplus by underfunding public services and go up in the polls is jaw dropping.
The Roy Morgan has been flailing around like a drunk in a bar fight over the last couple of polls, and while we can console ourselves that National can’t be this popular surely, the reality is historically no political party has been this popular in their third term.
Key has struck a chord deep inside middle NZ and the provincial rump of NZ. Helen Kelly spoke recently of how NZ is a small country with small minds. Our deep streak of negative egalitarian anti-intellectualism detests big ideas, they are scary and frightening.
We like our ideas laid back and something that can be chatted about around a BBQ.
Rugby is such a religion because kicking and running and throwing a ball is all pretty simple.
We like our conspiracies to be basic. Helen Clark didn’t have children and was passing law to stop parents from hitting their kids, Helen Clark told a driver to speed, Helen Clark was trying to tell us what light bulbs and shower heads to use, Helen Clark signed a painting she didn’t paint – those are easy to understand stupidities that barely scratch the surface of the complexities behind each of those examples.
That’s what we love in NZ – simple stuff and no one peddles simple like our comfortable laid back at the end of the day pony tail tugging Prime Minister.
Mass Surveillance was too big an idea for NZers to comprehend. The Moment of Truth clearly proved to us all that the Prime Minister had lied about mass surveillance, but we didn’t want to know because it was too big. The NSA working with the GCSB and SIS created acronym overload. We started learning things that were too big to talk about openly. The GCSB and SIS both had increases in budget by 250% and 174% within a decade and Key had reorganised the following intelligence apparatus to answer to a small clique of security goons he controls; the Organised Crime Intelligence Unit, Financial Intelligence Unit, Strategic Intelligence Unit, National Bureau of Criminal Intelligence, Identity Intelligence Unit, Threat Assessment Unit, Police Terrorism Investigation and Intelligence Group and the Special Investigation Group. Who wanted to even try and understand all of that and remain silent? Better to not ask and not know because to do so seems pretentious to even think we can think. Do we suddenly think we are high and mighty for asking questions like a stirrer, shush now and step back into line and do something useful by getting some more beers and check the sausages on the barbie.
That so few NZers can connect Kim Dotcom’s case with America’s determination to rule the internet as Julian Assange did this week rams this point home. Snowden can tell us that the Government is lying to our face and we don’t want to hear it.
The PMs Office colluded with the Secret Intelligence Service to falsely smear Phil Goff months before the 2011 election, but NZers didn’t want to know because it raised all sorts of awkward questions and we don’t do awkward questions well in this country.
Look at the fact we have one of the highest levels of climate change denial in the developed world.
Look how long it took homosexuality to legalise.
Look at how every debate about hungry children boils down to, ‘I-won’t-help-feed- hungry-kids-because-it’s-the-parents-fault-and-feeding-them-will-remove-the- responsibility-from-the-parents’ style arguments, as if teach-a-man-to-fish morality somehow excuses the kids hungry right now without glancing once at the social structure that has exacerbated that poverty.
Look at our counter productive cannabis laws that make Helen Kelly of all people a criminal.
Look at the way we totally missed what the repeal of section 59, the ‘anti-smacking law’, was all about. We removed a legal loophole that was allowing parents who were charged with assaulting their kids a way of getting away with that abuse.
Look at the hysteria over Maori rights as indigenous people and the fallacy of the ‘one law for all’ ignorance.
Now look at how the TPPA is being framed as a ‘free trade deal’ when it’s nothing of the sort. It’s a geopolitical response by America to China in the Pacific, this is ‘Forced Trade’, not free trade, but that idea is way too big for the voters Labour are trying to woo now.
Usually you could rely on the educated middle classes to lift the intellectual level of the debate. They led on creating a Treaty, universal suffrage, worker rights, welfare state, Nuclear Free, Gay rights, MMP, the anti-apathied movement, marriage equality and environmentalism. They are silent now and embedded with Key because their property valuations are making more annually than their actual jobs. They’ll agree to creationism being included in the school curriculum if it means putting off a real capital gains tax for another 3 years.
Key has connected ignorance with self interest and empty aspiration and it has become a toxic cocktail that shows no end of charming NZers.
My reading of this stubborn attachment to Key by middle NZ is totally about what gets reported (or doesn’t get reported) on the 6oclock news – the right have a stanglehold on what the mildly interested hear or don’t hear – it’s as simple as that
Vicky, your generalization is either naive or calculated to be incorrect. Why assume, as it seems you do, that the majority of constituents derive their political opinions/aspirations from television news? I suggest that the fundamental reason for JK’s ongoing popularity is that he makes us feel better about ourselves, rather than the braying negativity which oozes from what passes for the Opposition these days. When you have as an Opposition a fractured Labour Party with intermittent “Leaders” and a Green Party riddled with negativity, the stroll is easy for JK’s government.
Talk about being NAIVE ! AND STUPIDLY defensive of a train wreck of an inefficient govt. If those who love Jonkey so much only new the real truths and his secret mega-corporate connections and how he is selling us down the river, they may wake up and see the truthful realities. John Key is far from what many think he is.
People get propaganda and lies in the media in many places other than TV. Most are so uneducated and only concerned about how an idiot leader makes them feel. That tells a lot.
@Faversham +100
Quite correct about television news – who watches 3 News anymore?
Absolutely, JK does make us feel better about ourselves because he’s so like all of us and for a very special subset of the population he just feels about.
“Braying negativity” I know what you mean and it’s distressing that they have so much to bray about:
* topping $100bn national debt
* a fleeting surplus after how long?
* inaction on climate change
* obscene child poverty numbers
* giving away our sovereignty in the TPPA (but the upside is that some time in the future it’ll give us a $2bn benefit which should cover the SCF bailout)
As for the Greens, “riddled with negativity” isn’t the half of it. Metiria Turei – rarely does she smile and when she does it’s such a negative smile. James Shaw – elected to co-leader because he went round the branches spreading his negative charisma and pessimistic chutzpah so effectively that people started accusing him of being a bit blue, if you know what I mean. Gareth Hughes – sad to see such cynicism in one so young but the inevitable consequence of eco-indoctrination.
But you have to expect it don’t you? A constant diet of kale, quinoa and tofu will turn anyone negative eventually.
Yes, it is an easy stroll for JK’s government isn’t it – it’s called sleepwalking.
I’m no economist but my small ability to understand that the reason for house and land prices are high because of the demand for houses or property or could it be a combinations of things like the expanding money supply (debt) which pushes the value of assets up because the amount of money in the economy just thought I’d add that in i’m open to suggestion
It is because old home owners need new home owners to borrow more than the previous owners.
So – nothing to do with the Auckland Council’s grindingly slow bureaucracy, singular lack of forward planning and vision over land release to create supply then?
That would be true if lenders used deposites to make loans instead of the current mark to model mechanism.
Basically mark to model means banks can repackage loans into junk bonds
assign a price that performs in certain market conditions and in any circumstances
Bankers take that price to the Reserve Bank so they can rubber stamp it
At each churn fees are generated which artificially increases bank balance sheets and the amount of loans, there by artificially increasing mortgages and property prices, which divorced from any supply or demand philosophies.
My reading on this is it’s totally to do with what gets reported on the 6oclock news – now that the right have a stanglehold on both channels, the mildly interested only get to hear about what the Natz choose for them to hear. Nothing will change till the tv bosses change
This is really depressing news.
What’s going on?
Some convenient manipulation somewhere perhaps? But RM is a supposedly reputable polling company.
Another point which I feel is more likely, is Labour is not performing as well as it should! Not so much that NatzKEY is more popular, but the major opposition party is not up to scratch, failing to offer confidence to voters. Dereliction of duty comes to mind here! That would reflect in the polls.
Time for Labour to up its game in the best interests of its members and supporters. The electorate needs to know there is a strong alternative to the corrupt bunch of crooks running the show at present!
At this rate, NZF, NZ Greens, as well as Mana/Internet will become the major opposition, relegating Labour to the sidelines, where judging by this latest poll result, is where it belongs!
A nation made up of close to 50 percent workaholics and shopaholics, for whom the only meaning of life is work, sleep, work more, shop, sleep a bit, shop more, have a few drinks and watch lots of rugby and cricket (where at least some games seem to have been “fixed” by greedy sports “heroes”).
They are hooked to their drugs, work, greed and consumerism, so they embrace the drug dealer, as they dread the withdrawal that is needed before the cure.
Indeed, reason to be worried, it seems the dictatorship is working. Dissenting views have been purged from the mainstream media, the rest are told they must be grateful to still have a “job”, and those daring to conduct investigative journalism get visited by police, and have their house searched.
What a state of affairs, sigh.
There’s a power revolution just around the corner. Anyone hear that Tesla is back and he’s brought with him plasma energy. jonkey will choke on his apple as this does away with oil, gas, coal, wood burning … :take a look at our NOW energy :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=1280&v=BM8wuqPmVBg
I wrote to the NZ Amb in Rome saying I expected to hear an announcement from Key soon about this new energy now available for our homes and businesses. Yeah right!!! Electricity cost per household … $ ZERO
Wonder what key’s rating will be when people find out he’s kept silent.
Hello Labour were up in the polls after Northland when they worked together. Now after doing a pathetic U turn over TPP people are deserting Labour in droves.
This survey was complete before Labour shot itself in the foot over TPPA
whop de do. Don’t revise growth targets
When Mr Little announces that a Labour government will ‘flout’ any obligations under the TPPA you can hardly be surprised that there is reluctance on the part of the electorate to embrace Labour.
Give me a Labour leader and a party that gives an appearance of competence and ability to solve the problems of this country and I will vote for them.
Until then stop insulting my intelligence by blaming the 6pm news, which I long ago ceased watching, or rising house prices. The simple fact is that I and many others find the current Labour.’leadership’ a joke.
Could the poll possibly be rigged?
Surely they would if they could. No better way to trick voters into believing no one else cares.
Can anyone therefore PROVE they don’t rig?
Of course it’s rigged. Roy Morgan say they use landlines and mobile phone numbers, given that less people use landlines now, and there is no white pages that list peoples “current” mobile numbers, and telcos do not give out that kind of information, how does Roy Morgan get mobile phone numbers to randomly call?
How do RM get the mobile numbers?
from the national party members list of course.
Exactly.
Yeah it was rigged!
Just like all the other opinion polls which say basically the same thing.
And just like the last election was rigged.
(SIGH!)
Or they are still using landlines for their polls…
And never is opposition shown in good light in the media…
The next generation will suffer ‘big time’ if NZ continues in this vain
Sheeple – asleep being led by the propaganda media machine.
Allowing a proven liar and an elitist Wall St. gangster to continue to get their support just shows how naive and unintelligent most are in this country.
Ignorance is the name of the game for these sheeple and they deserve such a train wreck of a leader. Bury your heads further into the sand and pretend that everything is just A – OK in your Rock Star Economy illusion.
Hit a nerve with this one with all those hands down ticks.
Sounds like I hit the nail on the head. Seems there are more Natz trolls and Natz supporters reading here now.
The middle class are too busy playing on their smart phones to think too deeply about anything.
It was quite well documented recently that the millions National have fund research units like the one Farrar runs to connect with voters. Not about their true intent but how to sell themselves, distract, mislead, dumb down, trivialise, be ordinary folk!
The flag, the planking, tossing off in the shower, the shameless All Black photo op’s are a good examples. All fortified by a paid off docile media. That $43 million the taxpayer invested courtesy of Stephen Joyce in Stephen Joyces old company Mediaworks really did pay dividends for National did it not, not so much for Mediaworks mind you!
And who can forget the connections these millionares have with so called objective bank economists and “business analysts” who against all logic sing Nationals economic praises! Pretty convincing stuff for your average non thinking Kiwi.
All the focus groups and constant polling is what is doing it. The fact there isn’t coherent long term policy or for the right reasoning, quick decision making or that Key is a stuttering slurring possum in the headlights when issues that he knows about get out into the public before he has been scripted seem not to matter.
Given National is made up of human personalities, although hard to believe, I am quite sure National is riven with decention but those detractors are quickly removed from the picture, paid off or threatened off by big money willingly turned on them at a moments notice.
What it says to me is big money is very important to staying in power. It’s just it’s not good for our country.
‘and its our money used to advertise against us Xray
transNational’s #1 priority always is get re-elected.
#2 priority – serve those who help us with #1.
im not totally convinced key support is as wide as the msm paints, i get what you are saying though – it appears on the surface to be as you say, thats one of keys specialities, gliitz, surface painting, glitter, the furnature is horrendous, and there are far more aware theres something not right in nz now with key, i wont go into great detail why i say that, one examplle was the northland byelection, there was great disdain for key, these types of poles are bent in some way, the ones that would vote against key give up fighting, dont buy it. the msm more often than not is portraying the polar opposite of the truth or diiverting people with mindless sport, famous people behaviours etc. I thought the west had a free medai till a few years ago and now see it is total propaganda and lies , like every other country
I am taking an educated guess that Northland voters found out why Sabin resigned, were horrified and were especially pissed off that the Nats knew about it and still let him stand in 2014. Even some Nat voters still have some vague kind of standards it appears.
That, National taking them for granted and the combo of Winston, they voted elsewhere.
Little has given NZ no reason to change.
As much as I’d love the polls to be biased, they are relatively accurate come election day. Whether they shape voting is another question.
I must confess, I watched The Nation this morning. First there was a highly defensive “Ombuds(wo)man”, trying to excuse all failings in her office, of which she seems to have little oversight, then there was an interview with Andrew Little in the back of a Wellington bus.
Again, after hearing Andrew, my question was, maybe too Little too late? Something does not reach enough people, maybe another rethink of the strategy is needed?
John Key’s popularity stems from many people admiring someone that they perceive as successful. These people consider Key to be successful because he became wealthy at the expense of others.
It is evident that the National Party and other parties on the right task their sycophantic supporters with going through blogs and down-voting any insightful comments made against these parties.
The number of people down-voting intelligent, factual comments against the Government makes one wonder about the validity of the latest Roy Morgan poll, which puts National at 50% popularity. The desperation of these Key lackeys suggests that the party’s internal polling is showing far more concerning results for National.
As Martyn pointed out, the proliferation of unnecessary shopping malls has encouraged mindless consumerism. People focus on superficialities rather than thinking deeply about the negative social and economic consequences of this Government’s policies for the vast majority of the population, particularly vulnerable groups in society, such as low income earners, beneficiaries, people with disabilities, people with mental illnesses, elderly people, students, State house tenants, to give a few examples.
People who adulate Key have either forgotten or do not care that this National Government cut funding to all levels of education, healthcare, disability services, and social support services. At the same time, they give tax cuts to the highest income earners, pour taxpayer funding into supposedly private schools, change the law to enable Paula Rebstock to be paid $2000 a day to review CYF, spends tens of millions of dollars on a flag referendum that most people do not want, and refuse to implement a capital gains tax to discourage property speculation.
Another typically cynical move by this National Government is their refusal to release details about Government ministers and personnel frequently caught speeding in ministerial cars. When Helen Clark’s driver sped, the National Opposition of the day and the media for months on end referred to the incident. It is still brought up now, even though Clark was not driving and was unaware that the driver was speeding, as evidenced by the subsequent investigation.
With reference to the so-called “paintergate” incident- anyone with knowledge of art knows that artists sign the front of paintings. Clark did not claim to have painted the picture. She signed the back of it for charity. It is puerile and desperate for the right-wing parties and their supporters, and the colluding mainstream media, to continue to dredge up this non-issue.
Claire, your first paragraph was wrong and then you went downhill from there.
In my view people vote National because for the most part, they’re competent – well, certainly a lot more competent than their opposition.
Key as a person is popular mostly because he comes across as quite ‘normal’. Despite his position, he talks plain English and has a good sense of humour. There is none of the pursed-lipped, whining, negativism that we see today in Labour and especially Little.
Really, Andrew?
So racking up a $60 billion debt from when Labour left office (debt; $10 billion) is your definition of “competant”?!
Remind me never to let you be my accountant…
I am old enough to remember the last PM that was so popular Rob Muldoon also did the blokey thing really well and when we voted him out he tried to get the army to revolt! When the veil slips as it has done a couple of times the real person underneath is unpleasant but the media goes into overdrive to silence the script!
I for one, do not believe these figures. Like most, I know people, and the ones I know cover a fairly broad spectrum. I have yet to hear any of them say that they would vote for Jonkey, or actually, have anything good to say about him.
Moe likely that these figures have their origins in some back room of the National Party . . .
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