Colin James’ Poll of Polls show how easy it will be for Labour to win

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We have a First-Past-The-Post Press Gallery covering an MMP election. The bubble world that is Wellington warps perspective and pundits and punters alike seem to be under the impression sold to them for 3 years by flawed land line opinion polls, that John Key is going to cruise to victory.

Wrong.

Colin James is one of the old guns if NZ political commentary whom I have an immense amount of respect for. He refuses to vote each year as his price of having the privilege to commentate on politics. He is exceptionally honourable and has a very commanding oversight of the NZ political landscape. His poll of polls show just how easy it is for John Key to lose.

In 2011, National was averaging around 56% in the Polls and they dropped 9 points by election day. This election National are only averaging 50.3% and have yet to go through their drop. Colin points out that a 4% drop will put Labour in a position to govern. 

As The Daily Blog has pointed out for over a year, this election will be razor close and the possibility of a Labour, Green, Internet MANA majority is a real one.

14 COMMENTS

  1. But how do we get this point across to the ‘masses’ who are brain washed by the right wing controlled (propaganda) media-MSM?……..this is the REAL problem.
    When the left wing get in to power they MUST do something about the right wing CONTROL of the media, or else we’ll be back to the ‘smiling assassin’ type PM from the right wing in NO TIME.
    I KNOW press sensorship-control is not good for democracies, but unbridled press power isn’t good either.
    So how about limiting the size of a market one particular media out let can control in a country?
    How about making it EASIER and cheap to SUE newspapers when they print lies?……..try suing the NZ media, even if you’re right. It’ll cost you millions, assuming you can afford (to loose in) the lottery that is a trial…….THEY CAN, and they hide behind that advantage BIG TIME…………re: the $150,000 bottle of wine etc etc debacle, and other attacks on DC,…… with ABSOLUTE impunity !!!!!!

    • Good one Martin,

      Here’s my answer to Martins correct view of;
      “The right wing controlled (propaganda) media-MSM?……..this is the REAL problem.”

      Guys we have to start/lend our own free to air TV channel/or radio political chat program.

      We must be able to borrow a friendly operator of an existing channel for the duration of this corrupt election cycle, and stack them with our fine left of centre commentators and Journalist’s.

      Call it something like “A call to arms” or “the other side of the story” with the team that can put clear commentary and feedback on many topics and opinions broadcast over the “free media”, that’s another good name, so all undecided voters have an opportunity to engage with meaningful debate and commentaries, anyone got any ideas? what about Campaign for Better Broadcasting?
      Any ideas Martin, does Mike Williams have any ideas?

    • This ia is my biggest pet peeve with left wingers.those “masses” that you speak may genuinely not want to vote left

  2. The right have long known that they are vulnerable and that is why they have systematically gained control of the MSM in New Zealand over the last decade. Witness how TV NZ regard it as their right to have a politically biased moderator on the leaders debates. Notice how radio NZ have “retired” or simply dropped anyone from the news or political comments teams who don’t support National. Witness how the right have re-invented Cameron Slater from foul-mouthed know-nothing cretin to the world’s expert on everything. If Slater had opened his mouth in the 70s someone would certainly have shut it quickly with a right cross. Witness how the National government can fiddle with the stats, tell everyone that they are the truth and the MSN swallows it all without a murmur. Witness how the MSM, with very few exceptions, ignores the important issues in this country like health, poverty, education, the environment, etc and spends more time discussing the antics of students who say the f word.
    Yes, the right have done their homework all right, they knew long ago that their trickle-down market led policies were failures and instead of making better policies, they concentrated on creating a compliant media who would market these failures as successes. Saturation is the key. Keep saturating with dirt and eventually the dirt will seep through until it is impossible to wash out completely and a dirty situation will somehow be regarded as normal.
    It will only change when New Zealand’s media reps and journalists tire of being used as National Party spin doctors and start to demand independence and the right to publish the truth and fair unbiased comment, as they used to do. When they realize how they are being used for dupes eventually they will rebel and reclaim their position as guardians of the truth rather than disseminators of National Party lies.

  3. Colin James would distort figures to achieve a left outcome in anything. Ask him why he is no longer with NBR?

    • Could that possibly be because NBR is the NATIONAL BUSINESS review? Do two of these words ring a bell? Colin James obviously rocked the boat once too often and got the order of the boot. That’s what happens when you have conscience.

    • Alex & IGM – aside from engaging in a bit of character-assassination, do you two muppets actually have anything to go on why James’ data is incorrect?

      Or have you two replaced actual reasoned debate with derision. Cause it’s easier to spew childish nonsense rather than adult conversation?

      Just askin’.

  4. National are toast! Just get people out to vote. Ask everyone if they’re registered and remind them to be tactical. IP/MM 7% bottom line. Greens hold 15% maybe more Labour 29% … We have a new govt! Believe it, promote it and it will be. Fuck all the thinking FEEL IT!

  5. Not rocket science, the NZ left as in Britain needs its own MSM.

    Fight words with words, give the punters a choice and may the best words win!

    Takes money though.

    • AS was the case in the UK in the 1970’s when I was growing up (and maybe before?), with the Daily Mirror. …………….That was until that crock Robert Maxwell got control of it and eventually Rupert Murdock (??????).

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