For the first time in NZ Political history, someone has launched the first social media coup attempt of a Political Party.
Is it the Right playing games or is it a genuine left wing attempt to form a social media wave to knock Shearer out of the leadership?
My gut tells me it is left wing because I just don’t think Matthew Hooton, Cameron Slater or David Farrar would know who Billy Brag was. Textor-Crosby maybe, but not our local Death Star residents.
If the latest Roy Morgan Poll drop to 29% is reflected in the Weekend TV polls, it must be over for Shearer, and if this social media campaign gains traction, the change must come before November’s conference.
For that to happen the Party machinery would maneuver to make the leadership challenge a 3 week event so that there can be limited blood on the floor and that the November Conference is clean.
With all of this, TDB is lifting it’s Labour Party Coup Warning back up to high. If the Weekend Poll comes in poorly there will be chilly BBQs Sunday night.
Look left for the author. The right already have the man they want in charge of labour – only the left (and as a consequence) the rest of NZ, have something to gain from this.
It’ll be interesting to see the next few polls. The Roy Morgan poll (which is more accurate generally than the others) ended it’s polling on 28 July – the same day Labour released it’s housing policy.
So any lift gained from that policy wasnt reflected in the RM poll.
Still… 29%… not good.
And 51% for the Nats…!! Bugger me!! Whatever they’re putting in the drinking water is nasty stuff.
Shearer is such a woeful speaker. The clip of him “lambasting” John Key in Parliament is so depressing. I’m sure he’s a thoroughly decent chap and I’m sure he’ll make a good minister of something but not leader. Cunliffe has the speaking ability and the required level on mongrel to take a chunk out of Key rather than just leave a wet spot.
Here is another rumor I’ve heard. A plan B possibly trading concluded today between Key to Banks. If Dunne even looks like pulling his vote for the GCSB Bill another MP who has previously voted ‘no’ will change his vote. There could be something in it going by what the MP said. “The GCSB Bill is fine after the third reading.” Standing for ACT the desperate trade off. Surely not?
Yes, the timing may actually be quite good, as the gloss is coming off Key fast at the moment, and who knows what the next revelations will bring re the privacy breaches, the constitutional breaches, that have happened with the phone calls, phone records, now even whole lots of emails between Vance and Dunney Boy.
I do not rule out that the PM may finally get exposed for having stuffed up big himself, for being the one who put on the pressure on Parliamentary Services. If Key is forced to resign, as Winston is already speculating on, or even hinting, then there will be turmoil within National, a likely competition for the leadership.
Then Labour could at the same time just make the overdue move, and we could suddenly see a leader or front bench team, who will look quite different, and who may look rather formidable, at least a fair bit better than what we get now.
Make my desperate dream come true.
First the rot at the top of this government as to get deeper and must blow up soon. Then it is all on.
As much as I believe that Shearer must go for the opposition to have any chance in the next election, the timing of this is just too coincidental. The nats are frantically fishing for anything that will divert attention from the spying scandal and their inept handling of the spying legislation. So my guess is that this is a plant.
The problem with Shearer is that he is just not convincing. He could announce peace on earth and it would sound like a non-event. He just does not excite.
Perhaps Labour should give some serious thought to the co-leadership model, it would have a few good effects, stability being one of them.
But whatever they want to do, they have got next to no time.
Gotta love billy brag
I think that David Shearer is not the ideal leader for Labour. Most people (not my learned colleagues on this forum) do not vote on policies – sad but true. They vote on the wit, charisma and oratory skills of a party leader. Some might argue that Helen Clark did not have charisma but she was razor sharp and was a gifted speaker. And though it pains me to say it so does John Key. In the technological age, oratory has to be refined to fit into increasingly shorter sound bytes – this is Key’s forte. In the Labour Party it is really only David Cunliffe and Jacinda Ardern that have these gifts.
With all that said a change in leadership now is a very risky move, one year out from an election.
the drums are now clearly audible to some in the L/Party,andrew little has informed CTU,some lec”s and S/Jones of his plans,still embrionic and getting stronger
I would be happy to see David Cunliffe slotted into Deputy Leader & given the Finance portfolio before Xmas. That would send the correct signal to everyone.
it is never too late to get rid of a dud (or a right wing plant) when so much is at stake. I thought,foolishly, that it was just the assets and the economy that we were losing under National. I never even thought about my rights and the country’s reputation of and actual environment as well. We need a real leader who can speak like Cunliffe can with the brains to back it up.
[…] As TDB pointed out on our 2nd of August Labour Coup Watch upgrade, the move against Shearer was on weeks ago. The factions have heard the demands of the affiliates for a Labour leader who doesn’t count Fran O’Sullivan, John Armstrong, David Farrar, Matthew Hooton and Cameron Slater as their most ardent supporters. […]
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