1 week to go – Old Zealand vs New Zealand: TDB Final election prediction

This isn’t an election, it’s a grudge fuck!

It’s Old Zealand (Act/National/NZF) vs New Zealand (Labour/Green/Māori Party).

It’s timid fragile egos all angry at the economic anxiety post-Covid has manifested.

We are a lesser people for this Election and the worst angels of our nature have been aroused by political interests and astroturf rural dissent.

And what a crazy week of election we’ve all had.

National get caught hiding the fact that only 3000 people will get their $250 per fortnight tax cut, while apologising for falsely framing everyone would get that tax cut, Luxon accidentally framed it that way again. He’s a one trick pony without a trick or pony.

After refusing to rule Winston out, then ruling Winston in, National begged the country not to vote for Winston.

I’ve seen self mutilations with more logic than this.

National seem hell bent on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and the final debate on Thursday between Chippy and Luxon is Labour’s last chance to pick up the momentum they are feeling open the ground that support is flowing back to them after the fiasco of a ACT/National/NZF Government.

LABOUR: 30%

Chippy has one last chance, the Thursday election debate, if he beats Luxon again, Labour have a chance to build on the late momentum coming their way because National, ACT and NZF are scaring the bejesus out of voters.

Chippy stating he would resign before negotiating with Winston or negotiating a wealth tax with Māori Party and Greens is a threat he’ll need to see through because there will be others in the Cabinet prepared to negotiate those things with or without Chippy.

NATIONAL: 35%

Is Chris Bishop secretly a Labour Member? How have National fucked up a campaign this badly? Refusing to rule Winnie out, then ruling Winnie in, then begging voters to save them from their strategic blunder???

The lie about how only 3000 will gain their full tax cut has been devastatingly bad for National, especially as those montages of how Luxon and Nicola Willis lied are so easy to push on TicTok.

They are hopeless and will be a nightmare Government.

ACT: 10% + 1 Electorate

.

ACTs extremism is now spooking voters and that’s why they have been slipping in the polls.

More Submachine guns, brutal public service sackings and a race baiting campaign that borders on the cross burning has forced Auckland voters grumpy at Labour to reassess their protest vote to ACT and once they saw what out was ACT were intending to do, that protest vote has walked off to Winston.

David claims no one can point to one thing that he has said or done that is race baiting.

Well allow me to clear that up.

When David released the unique code for Māori to be vaccinated, that was a public health vandalism stunt that he used to race bait Māori.

When he called Opotoki ‘Mogadishu‘, he was race baiting.

When he called gang member behaviour, ‘subhuman’, he was race baiting.

When he claims this…

…he’s race baiting.

When he posted this on Instagram…

…he was race baiting.

When he wants to remove January 2nd as a State Holiday because of ‘Matariki’, he is race baiting!

When he does his pseudo one law for all wank, he is race baiting.

When he looks to amputate all the Ministries that aren’t male and white, he’s race baiting.

Wanting to push for a referendum that renegotiates the the Treaty and then forces it upon Māori is race baiting!

Look, most of the time he opens his mouth, it’s race baiting.

Pretending that ACT haven’t race baited is simply not true!

What was funny a couple of months ago is now seriously dangerous.

Kiwis don’t want more race friction, and that’s all ACT are promising.

GREENS: 13% + 2 electorates

I have been very harsh on the Greens this term, but I have zero interest in relitigating those criticisms because right now, the Greens are facing their greatest possible electorate win next month and it has enormous impacts on the future of the Political Left in NZ.

Four amazing things are happening all at the same time for the Greens.

1 – The Greens have been relentlessly focused and disciplined in terms of messaging. They have put the Wealth Tax idea front and centre of the debate by demanding a fundamental redesign of the economic structure to tap new revenue streams created from untaxed wealth accumulation. We can’t fund better social services and infrastructure if we don’t have the taxation and we should only get that taxation from those sectors and individuals who are using their market position to milk us. The identity politics has taken a backseat to the pragmatic issues people struggling want answers to, and this has helped enormously!

2 – Labour’s incremental fecklessness and cautious nothingness has seen a wholesale landslide of Labour Left walking over to the Greens, I mean after that bullshit Captain’s Call on the Wealth Tax, why bother voting Labour? GST off my banana don’t mean jack shit.

3 – The re-emergence of Marama and the brilliance of Chloe in the debates is generating the kind of buzz that activists need to be enthused by to turn up.

4 – Demographics have changed and there are more Gen X and Millennials voting than Boomers and their fears and hopes and aspirations are not being catered to by ACT, National, NZ First or Labour.

When the Greens were part of Alliance they won 18% of the vote, but strip the Alliance away, the highest result the Greens have ever had was 11.1 in 2011.

I believe the conditions are rip[e for a 15% Green Party win plus two electorates.

The weakness of Labour has given the Greens a platform to shine on and they have.

The importance of strong bottom lines in any Labour/Green/MP supply and confidence arrangement will be as important as the level of protest the Greens decide to use against National and ACT’s far right romper stomper campaign from Opposition.

Either way the Greens are set to record an historic win and permanently reshape the political landscape either from inside or outside Government after October.

Māori Party – 3.5% + 4 electorates

The Māori Party may well surprise on election night with more electorates and a higher party vote than is currently being reflected in the Polls.

The manner in which Māori gave been a political punching bag this election on top of the race baiting by National, ACT and NZ First will cause a backlash within Māoridom that will surprise on Election night.

NZF – 4.9%

Last week Winston ended up threatening Jack Tame’s job because Jack asked him hard questions.

This week his coalition partner National were begging people not to vote for Winston while David Seymour took every opportunity to attack Winston during every debate he was on.

If Winston is the answer, the question must be ‘What crooked old fox could make National and ACT even more toxic’.

Winston has to hit 5.4% on election night or risk getting sucked under 5% by the Specials.

Sub 5% Feral Antivax God Squad vote – NOTHING!

What’s been most interesting about the Racist Dumb Christians Qanon anti vaxx feral vote is that it is clearly out there, but what is fascinating is that it is cult leader focused.

NZ Loyal, Democracy NZ, Freedom NZ, New Conservatives – each are getting 1% traction but its limited to the personal messiah leading each movement.

Liz Gun, Matt King, Bishop Brian, Winston – each group of Racist Dumb Christians Qanon anti vaxx ferals are connected via the internet to their favourite messiah via a personal bond with the cult leader, so while they all have the same policies, it’s the cult of personality in the lonely lives of believers that shapes the bond.

Thank Christ all the leaders are toxic narcissist and refuse to work together.

How the Racist Dumb Christians Qanon anti vaxx ferals find a place post election in NZ culture is difficult to see and without any real clear movement, the fear is they will collapse into small cell groups and radicalise even further.

We had an option of deescalating this when the first version of the Dumb Lives Matter movement washed up on Parliament Lawns 2 years ago, but we refused to do that and it has metastasised into a treacle of dark hate the ramifications of which are still not calculated.

SPECIALS:

I don’t think we will know on election night who the Government will be and it could all come down to the specials 2 weeks after the election. That means NZ First must hit 5.4 on election night or get dragged under the threshold when the Specials get counted as the Specials tend to favour Greens, Labour and Māori Party.

The Economy

Interest rates will be going up before Christmas, food inflation prices will remain sky-high and the cost of living crisis will get more intense as geopolitical shockwaves impact oil and food prices.

Union Busting:

National and ACT will dump the Fair Pay Agreements and give Bosses the right to fire before 90 days.

This is a direct assault on the Union Movement and empowers the low wage economy National donors have become addicted to.

Expect migrant worker exploitation to explode throw the roof.

Class War on Renters:

Real Estate Pimps have donated millions to National and in return National have lifted the Foreign Buyers Ban and will give landlords the right to kick tenants out with no notice. National and ACT will also role back Tenants rights while reopening Landlord tax loop holes.

There is a class war on renters but we don’t have the political vocabulary to articulate it.

Speculators Paradise: 

By opening NZ up to foreign speculators while reopening landlord tax loops holes, National and ACT are opening NZ up for sale to their overseas wealthy mates.

Environmental Bonfire of the Vanities:

National and ACT will reverse oil and gas bans and steam full ahead at the Climate Change Iceberg. They will allow Agriculture another 5 years of doing nothing (that will be a total of 25 years of doing nothing) while slashing public transport and climate change budgets.

They will greenwash everything and lie about the rest.

The planet will burn and National and ACT will pour petrol on it.

Amputation of the State:

National and ACT have promised 15 000 job cuts and the amputation of 5 ministries and the Human Rights Commission. They will slash and burn the State and hack away at it with the ideological fervour of self-flagellating puritans.

Race War:

As a bottom line, ACT are demanding a referendum to renegotiate the Treaty with Māori and then just foist that upon Māoridom!

What in our 184 year history makes anyone believe that Māori will just accept that?

This referendum will generate an enormous social backlash and the hikoi to Wellington will become our largest protest march. Parliament Lawns will be Occupied, the real possibility of civil disobedience will erupt and all because ACT want to play race baiting games unleashing the worst angels of our nature.

Gun Fetishist Fantasies: 

The Gun lobby have deep control over ACT now and the killing off of the Gun Registry (an act the Police Association says is crazy, which really is saying something coming from the Police Association), and allowing the sociopaths submachine gun of choice back on the streets is truly the foreplay of a charmless man.

Private Prison Empire and Prison Riot:

National are promising to throw State Tenants onto the street while ACT promise a billion dollars to build more prisons!

You know the ‘Private prison’ solution is around the corner.

Our current publicly funded prisons are close to snapping point and the incompetence of technology and staffing of the home monitoring system that can be tricked by fucking tin foil are all red flags that the system can’t manage the prison popualtyioin they have, let alone pouring thousands more into it!

The recipe for an enormous prison riot is building.

PREDICTION

This self inflicted cluster fuck of a possible ACT/National/NZF Government has been driven by the rage of frightened voters who have had their pain manipulated for far right interests using social media hate algorithms

National + ACT + NZF will be the worst Government in NZ History

The question must be how we on the Left managed to exacerbate this and how the hell we find a solution.

It’s bizarre that Covid which has shaped all these symptoms in our economy and society, from debt to crime, is not mentioned at all!

It’s like it is Taboo to even speak of it!

This silence damages the Left because we are unable to explain why we are facing the symptoms of the cure we took to protect life in the first place!

We faced a once in a century novel pandemic. We had to make decisions that hurt and damaged many lives.

We all sacrificed for the greater good because that was the best means of dealing with a novel virus.

Were there mistakes?

Of course and there were consequences, and those consequences were worth the alternative which was tens of thousands of dead in a mass death event altho would have mutilated this nation.

Critics pointing at the lack of a mass death event as proof that there never was one ignores what we had to do to ensure that didn’t happen!

It’s the most idiotic argument!

The ease with which we rewrite the recent past, to determine with the luxury of hindsight that Covid was just a cold when it has killed tens of millions around the globe is sophistry.

Let’s remember what Labour and Jacinda’s courage did again?

Why it protected us from a mass death event and saved 20 000 lives!!!

New Zealand’s Covid-19 response saved 20,000 lives – research

New Zealand’s restrictions during the pandemic saved the lives of about 20,000 people, according to new research.

The paper by 16 leading doctors and scientists, published in the New Zealand Medical Journal on Friday, is calling for all serious respiratory infections – including influenza and RSV – to be treated the same way.

Lead author and Otago University public health professor Michael Baker said it was a “strange paradox” of preventative medicine that its success could work against it in people’s minds.

“We have an expression in public health: ‘A public health triumph: nothing happened’.

…did we all sacrifice for greater good over Covid?

Yes we did.

That sacrifice was unequally shared in an unequal society and has caused ruptures in crime, the economy, mental health, political polarisation and the rise of conspiracy theories thanks to social media hate algorithms.

Things are hard, they will get harder still thanks to catastrophic climate change, but imagine if we’d lost 20 000 of us?

How much more damaged things would be from the cultural shockwave of 20 000 dead.

I salute Jacinda’s leadership, I salute Labour’s courage and I salute our shared sacrifice, but what I won’t do is shit on their response and that collective sacrifice by pretending that saving 20 000 lives was a worthless thing to do just because inflation is high, predictable social problems have occurred and Te Reo is spoken too much during the Weather.

Labour deserve our vote this election.

Their courage saved 20 000 lives.

We would be an empty shadow people for not recognising that.

This is the most important election of a generation where the Right, unconstrained by decency and enabled by the infected hate of petty bigotry, will vandalise the Egalitarian State in a manner beneath the mana of our country and I think we are a better people than National, ACT and NZ First believe we are.

You must vote as if your life depended on it my fellow citizens, because under the Alliance of Arseholes, it really will be!

This Election is a battle between Old Zealand vs New Zealand.

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