Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election autopsy – the future of MANA

Interesting results and trends coming out of the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election that give some glimpse as to the future of the MANA Party.

Over 70% of the votes counted were cast at schools and over 87% of the votes cast on election day itself were at schools, breaking those schools down in terms of economic status shows where MANA picked up their vote.

To do the analysis, only votes cast for candidate at schools (or in a couple of instances community centres where there is only one school in the area – eg Camberley) have been used, and that number has been multiplied by the decile rating. Dividing the result by the total votes for each candidate gives an equivalent decile rating.

The decile results for the 4 main candidates are:

Greens            2.51
MANA            2.08
Maori Party  2.52
Labour          2.57

The average across all votes at schools was 2.43 (the average decile across New Zealand schools is, of course, around 5)

The important point to remember is that 1 is the lowest decile rating a school can have so the difference between 2 and 2.5 is actually quite significant – 33%.

The other obvious point is that the other three parties were very consistent. MANA’s result is significantly different and proves what has been suspected, that MANA is increasingly winning the votes of Maori who most desperately need a political movement who will fight for them.

Looking at just the decile 1 schools (which account for over a third of the votes taken at schools) the % vote for each party are:

Greens            12.6% of the vote
MANA            30.6% of the vote
Maori Party   18.8% of the vote
Labour          36.2% of the vote

Those % figures are particularly damning of the Maori party.

MANA is a party of class as much as it is a Party of indigenous rights. With more Pakeha now in poverty than Maori, MANAs message of universal benefits has the potential to resonate with a far larger electorate. John Minto and Sue Bradford have a real chance in 2014 of coming into Parliament off the back of a strong Party vote if Pakeha impacted by poverty see MANAs policy as benefitting them as well.

If NZ wants a genuine left wing Party that is not reliant on NZ First blocking any real Green political ambition, then the next Government must be  a Labour-Green-MANA one.