Wreck of the HMNZS Manawanui – submerging fiction, emerging facts.

Before attempting to discern the facts from the sparse information given by the New Zealand Defence Force (and fitting it in with information gleaned from other sources) first a comment on the latest press conference given by Defence Minister Judith Collins. As if her post disaster interviews on TVNZ’sBreakfast show last Monday and this weekend’s Q+A programme – where her inane grinning reminded us all how socially inept she is – were not awful enough, her deranged cry-bullying at her press conference on Thursday (10/10/2024) was a further embarrassment to an already humiliated Government.

As far as diversionary tactics went this was an epic decoy attempt: the online trolls were mocking the mighty HMNZSLGBTQ Manawanui and counter-trolling had now become the Defence Minister and her team’s top priority. The 200,000 litres of diesel leaking out and the approach of the cyclone season (November-April) not so important. “Armchair admirals” and their petty misogynistic, homophobic reckons on Facebook were identified as the enemy and battlefield she would be taking the fight to. Cringe, thy name is Judith.

Collins was unhinged. The New Zealand audience is used to this. Her deflective, defensive, hysterical lambasting was not so much shadow boxing as shadow UFC. To an international audience however this performance must have confirmed all the worst suspicions of New Zealand’s administrative juvenility and DEI uber alles. The world knows the commander of the ship was a British immigrant, a woman and a lesbian, that her promotion was part of a PR campaign by the NZDF to champion diversity. Whether this has anything to do with situational decision-making in connection with the disaster is not certain on the known facts, but an automatic dismissal are a disservice as much as an automatic acceptance. Collins insisting, dramatically, that if they hadn’t been evacuated at that time there would be 75 body bags doesn’t bear out the fact the ship was still upright hours later and was not listing badly or on fire until after dawn.

Collins in that latest press conference informed the world that she was New Zealand’s first woman Defence Minister. This made things so much worse because her over-reaction to the trolling was now framed (by her) as a gender war. She was taking it personally. Once again, her taking it personally is framed (by her) in gender terms. And to double down on the gender war she announced the Court of Inquiry that would investigate the disaster would be presided over by a woman. The inquiry was already being seen by the sceptical commentators as an arse-covering exercise, but now because of her gender framing the cement was set with her claw prints deep in it.

Just to give the international readers an impression of the sort of person Collins is look no further than uncle Google. When Google is directed to search for images similar to Judith Collins it returns images of Caesar Romero as the Joker from the 1960s Batman series.  When Google is directed to search for audio similar to Judith Collins’ manic giggling during the 2020 election leader’s debate (with Jacinda Ardern) it returns audio clips of Caesar Romero as the Joker from the 1960s Batman series. When newly elected MP Judith Collins was asked by a NZ Herald reporter the person she most admired (other politicians had said Nelson Mandela, Apirana Ngata, Florence Nightingale, Winston Churchill etc) she said Ernst Rommel. Whether that was because he commanded the feared Afrika Korps or because he was for many years the head of Hitler’s personal bodyguard unit is unclear. Caesar Romero as the Jokerfrom the 1960s Batman series if he had been newly elected to political office in Gotham City could not have come up with a more disturbed answer. For a woman whose throw-to line during her doomed election campaign (that took National to its second lowest result in its near 90 year history) that “my husband is Samoan!” we have heard nothing of this hitherto constantly invoked family connection. Not so much as a “malo”!

Collins stone cold sober is still three sheets to the wind. But ask yourself if a male conducted himself like this mad barking banshee could he ever get away with it? He would be diagnosed as a raving psychotic, but a woman gets a free a pass. Don’t argue about it, please – it’s a fact that’s mindlessly cackling at you in the face with super-villain arched eyebrows for fuck’s sake!

What from my column on this last Monday (07/10/2024) has been clarified, proven or disproven? What is the new information emerging over the last week?

The NZDF have revealed nothing about the grounding. Naturally they are focused on the clean up of debris, assuaging the Samoan authorities and locals, and working with the (still as yet unnamed) insurer to inspect the wreck and make an assessment of salvage possibilities. The Navy has begun “Operation Resolution” to deal with it all – a nod to the former hydrographic ship HMNZS Resolution decommissioned in 2012. The major point seems to be the equivocation from Collins on the timeline. No longer is she so certain of when the power loss – the presumed cause of the incident – occurred.

We can easily enough strike out attacks by a giant squid, a UFO, a 99 year old Japanese WW2 submariner who hadn’t surrendered, but our bingo card still contains several scenarios. A photo of the anchor from Samoan authorities shows it simply resting on the seabed with its chain trailing off some distance to the ship (see picture), so we can now safely say the anchor had been dropped. This does strongly suggest – though not definitively – a loss of power beforegrounding. However everything may have happened very quickly and near simultaneously.

Before we get to our updated timeline some tentative answers to some initial questions.

When did HMNZS Manawanui arrive in Samoa?

Distance from NZ to Samoa is 3,269 km. At its top speed of 26 kmph (14Kt) that is 125 hrs, or 5 days. It departed Devonport naval base in Auckland on 28 September in daylight, therefore the earliest it could have arrived if it travelled at top speed is Thursday afternoon. It almost certainly was not going that fast so its arrival in Samoan waters would have definitely been either Friday or Saturday (the day of the disaster).

What was the ship’s position?

A report from Radio New Zealand (06/10/2024) says Manu, a Samoan local:

“…Saw the HMNZS Manawanui sailing dangerously close to the reef as it ran aground, said he wondered why it was so close in the first place.

‘He crashed on a bommie. A bommie is a piece of reef that is a lot deeper than all the other reefs, so the waves won’t break unless there’s a really big swell. We just had a really big swell, and there would have been residual sets,’ he said.

‘He must have cruised over that reef thought nothing was coming, and then all of a sudden something came. Bang. I just don’t understand what he was doing there.

‘It bewilders me as to why he was there. I know it’s a scientific research boat but he shouldn’t have been that close to the reef. There’s no reason to be that close to the reef, not with the amount of swells that was around.’” 

From the Samoa Observer (06/10/2024):

“…This includes the disturbing odour of leaking oil from the vessel. Residents of Sa’anapu-Tai were first alerted to the crisis on Saturday night when they noticed a strong burning smell that permeated their homes. 

Fesili Tauta, a 37-year-old fisherman and father of five, recalled how the smell intensified when the HMNZS Manawanui ran aground before ultimately catching fire. “My wife thought I was lighting a fire,” Tauta said, explaining how the odour disrupted their peaceful evening.” 

Not sure about the burning smell happening on the Saturday night – is this related or not because the fire was certainly on Sunday morning.  More interesting is the first report of how close the ship was to the reef. The visibility and the charts and the weather conditions would suggest more caution should have been shown. The ship’s position was far too close to the reef. The location was turned on (see chronology) only when it grounded.

How did it happen?

Tom Sharpe in the Telegraph who “as the commanding officer of the last Royal Navy ship to nearly sink – that was HMS Endurance, a ship with many similarities to Manawanui, in 2008 – [has] views.” Sharpe was referenced by an irate Dr Gavin Ellis in his rather hostile blog that was highly critical of myself and other NZ media in our speculations. I think he was quite unfair, and will go through Sharpe’s grounding scenarios to flesh it out.

[Sharpe] said there were only a few ways a ship could run aground, and listed them:

1. You don’t know where you are on the chart through human or system-induced navigational error.
2. You do know, but the chart is wrong.
3. You know where you are and the chart information is correct but conditions (wind, tide etc) overwhelm your ability to hold position.
4. You suffer an engineering defect and the subsequent loss of control sees you run aground.
5. “Showboating”
6. Deliberately running aground

“All initial indications in the case of Manawanui point to a loss of propulsion/control as the primary cause.”

“The photos of Manawanui before she sank shows she had Restricted in Ability to Manoeuvre (RAM) shapes hoisted – a signal to other ships. The International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea says a RAM vessel is one which, “due to the nature of her work, is restricted in her ability to deviate from her course. These vessels include but are not limited to: vessels engaged in dredging, surveying, or underwater operations.”

“Technically, once power was lost, Manawanui would have ceased to be RAM and would instead become Not Under Command (NUC), requiring a different signal hoist, before becoming Aground, requiring yet a third signal. However the crew probably had other priorities than flying the technically correct day shapes.”

It is most likely 1 or 4. The possibility of hitting something in the unsurveyed part doesn’t make sense given the other facts. There is a “moon pool” for divers but I can’t see how this can malfunction to flood the vessel.  The flags denoting a survey is interesting – if it had finished surveying the flags would have been changed.

So given all this evidence and the press releases initially put out by NZDF, the firm assurance from Rear-Admiral Golding at the first press conference that the ship was not undertaking any task was false. He got it wrong or he was lying.

What I can’t reconcile either is the assertion that efforts were made to get off the reef. How? No other vessels were involved, there was a claimed loss of power, and now we know the anchor had been dropped – so how would that attempt have been made exactly? Or indeed why? See Sharpe’s sixth scenario – it would make sense if it was sinking to deliberately run it aground so it would not sink.

As stupid as it sounds… did they just plow straight into the reef!?

Dr Ellis must appreciate these descrepencies do not lend credibility to the official pronouncements and the additional vacuum of information from NZDF leave us rightfully questioning… well… everything.

From the available information, NZ, Samoan and international, civil, military and media I have composed the following timeline to assist us in drawing our own conclusions. Unanswered questions remain, one of them that pricks my curiosity is the presence of 75 on board when there are only 66 bunks.

Chronology

Samoa local time [sources in brackets]

Saturday 05/10/2024

6:24pm Sunset, twilight begins.

6:42pm Civil twilight ends.

6:45pm AIS location activated by HMNZS Manawanui. [Marinetraffic.com]

6:46pm Manawanui grounded. [NZDF]

6:58pm Samoan authorities receive call from Rescue Co-ordination centre (RCCNZ) in Wellington alerting them of distressed vessel. Samoa maritime unit dispatched immediately. [NZ Herald]

7:07pm Nautical twilight ends

7:19pm RCCNZ calls again to say ship will be abandoned “onto life rafts due to the deteriorating situation with Manawanui taking in too much water and was sinking.” [NZ Herald]

7:52pm Order to abandon ship given, began evacuating into lifeboats (4 life rafts, 2 RIBs). [NZDF]

8:30pm High tide (approx.)

9:30pm (approx.) Local fisherman reports Manawanui still lit up and upright, crew had abandoned it and in life rafts drifting to the West. Police, Fire and rescue boats on the scene. [RNZ]

10:54pm Cruise liner MS Queen Elizabeth arrives, but remains outside unsurveyed area. [Marinetraffic.com]

11:10pm French cable layer MS Lodbrog arrives, goes into unsurveyed area approx. 1nm West of Manawanui. [Marinetraffic.com]

Unknown pm “Initial statement” of event posted on NZDF website from Cdre Arndell: “…grounded…incident occurred Saturday evening while conducting reef survey…78 who were on board are currently in life rafts and accounted for…[RNZAF] P8 has been deployed…” [NZDF]

Unknown pm Samoa Acting PM Tuala Iosefo Ponifasio gives press conference detailing rescue efforts. Samoa Police, Fire and Emergency Services, and the Disaster Management Office in rapid response. [Samoa Observer]

Sunday 06/10/2024

Unknown am Fisherman on a rescue boat said communications between vessels and life rafts established, plan made to get everyone aboard Lodbrogbegan. Fisherman’s boat and 1 life raft and 1 RIB transferred some crew (11 – see below) but abandoned transfer due to rough seas, other RIB towing life rafts pulled over the reef by waves and washed up on shore. [RNZ]

1am First people rescued from life rafts. [NZDF]

2:30am Low tide (approx.)

5:16am Nautical twilight begins.

5:35am All people rescued. [NZDF]

5:41am Civil twilight begins.

6:02am Sunrise, twilight ends.

6:40am Smoke from ship, listing heavily. [Video]

6:42am Queen Elizabeth and Lodbrog leave area. [Marinetraffic.com]

7:00am (approx.) Fisherman said rescued crew transferred to larger vessels returned to shore. [RNZ]

8:30am High tide (approx.)

8:30am 2^nd statement from NZDF posted to their website: “…The 75 crew and passengers on board Manawanui have made it to safety in Samoa after the ship grounded. [NZDF]

9:00am Manawanui Capsized, sinks below waterline. [Video]

Unknown am Report: “Nafanua III rescued 18 crew, 11 were rescued by Ladbrog Cable Vessel, 10 were rescued by Ark Marine Company Ltd Vessel and 36 were rescued by S.P.P.C.S. with the assistance of S.F.E.S.A. small boats. All 75 crew members were transported to the New Zealand High Commission residence for welfare purposes.” [Samoa Observer]

12:42pm 3^rd statement from NZDF press release posted to their website: “…At this stage the exact cause of the grounding is unknown and this will need further investigation… They sailed from Devonport on 28 September and were due to return home on 1 November. “ [NZDF]