What if we have been really wrong about Covid and the 2021 spike is only the true beginning? 

ByMartyn Bradbury

At the beginning of last year, the rumours of a unique virus out of Wuhan were circulating.

For the Identity Politics woke in NZ, such criticism was racist!

It wasn’t just Nigel who was saying this, woke comedians, the Wellington Twitterati and other NZ virtue signallers were all saying the same thing. Even she of the candy floss hair, Siouxsie Wiles, originally underplayed the danger before she admitted she got it initially wrong.

Class Left TDB didn’t get it wrong.

Right from the beginning we stated this wasn’t a fucking identity politics issue, but instead a serious public health threat that had ALL the ingredients of a global pandemic.

84million global infections and 1.84million deaths later, lo and mother fucking behold, here we are.

So allow me to hazard another opinion as we enter 2021, that we have been really wrong about Covid and that the 2021 spike is only the true beginning.

The US were supposed to have 20million vaccinations by the end of December, they’ve barely managed 3 million!

The new mutations out of the UK and South Africa are so contagious that the UKs current lock down regime, which creates a 30% reduction in transmission, will actually see a 30% increase in infections from the new mutation!

The rest of the planet is faring just as poorly and most health systems are now close to capacity and exhaustion.

The euphoria of the vaccination announcement in late 2020 utterly underplayed the lack of public health infrastructure in America, the new mutation’s contagiousness and the fact that a global 75% herd immunity will need to be an annual immunisation event if it is to mean anything.

The economic whiplash hasn’t hit us yet and the full death count hasn’t even begun.

The difference between this pandemic and previous pandemics is that 24 hour air travel can re-infect a country or geographic area over and over again, rather than allow it to slowly die out as previous pandemics have.

What does that mean for us in NZ?

The naked truth is that we don’t have capacity to widen the border safely and if the virus gets through, Labour will be blamed if the track-trace can’t stop us going back into another lockdown.

All that political gratitude to Jacinda for keeping us safe would immediately evaporate if public service incompetence is seen as a conflating factor in any new outbreak.

That all adds up to one thing, the border is NOT opening before 2022, probably 2023 or even 2024.

That means exploited migrant workers, exploited international students and hyper tourism will be banned from returning which is problematic to NZ because much of our economy is based on those flawed economic models.

This in turn demands a vision from the Government that goes well beyond simply keeping the virus out.

Does Labour have that vision?

No. no they do not.

All the Government’s energy is being spent keeping us safe, there is no plan to rebuild, there is no plan to adapt. This would be a problem if any other political party had a vision, but none of them do, so Jacinda’s position is only threatened by another outbreak combined with an incompetent response.

If you think Covid will be dealt with this year, I don’t think you are paying attention.

 

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16 Comments

  1. I read last night that in the UK, a country being hammered by this virus, that the 2 stage vaccine is being rolled out incorrectly. The first dosage lasts up to 21 days so logic suggests the second, to make it 95% effective, must be given before that. To the sheer frustration and bewilderment of doctors, the government has factored the second dose at 12 weeks. Making the vaccination programme pointless and wasteful.

    And what was clear was there was far too few doses to go around at the moment.

    And if government incompetence was not enough, according to the doctor quoted who was at lengths to say he was non political, it was people not doing the basics (social distances, masks, hand washing, avoiding crowds) who were the threat, not the virus.

    I agree with you, we are a very long way away from being out of the woods!

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300197336/covid19-im-watching-whole-families-getting-wiped-out-here-britains-bleak-midwinter

  2. Well said, Martyn.

    ‘If you think Covid will be dealt with this year, I don’t think you are paying attention.’

    Never forget that the bulk of the populace isn’t paying attention. You can see that from the low readership counts on TDB articles.

    “Think about how stupid the average person is. And then remember that half the population is more stupid than that,” -George Carlin.

    The entire economy is run using flawed economic models, of course. Which is why everything that matters gets made worse by the minute [by politicians, economists and bureaucrats].

    ‘Does Labour have that vision?’

    I don’t think Labour understand the question. Andrew Little certainly doesn’t. Nor Grant Robertson. And I suspect Jacinda does either.

    “Vision? What’s that? We only know more of the same.”

    Permaculture. Powerdown, Localism. Living within the ecological boundaries imposed by the laws of mathematics, chemistry, physics and biology…..

    Jared Diamond wrote about how hopeless human societies are at identifying limits and living appropriately in “Collapse.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed.

  3. +100….good post….God I hate those sanctimonious guilt tripping wokies ( Gweenies)

  4. “If you think Covid will be dealt with this year, I don’t think you are paying attention”.

    Couldn’t agree more Martyn. Decisions around keeping us all safe are straightforward enough:
    – increased border security (already announced)
    – tighter security in managed isolation and quarantine
    – improved track and trace in the case of rapid community spread
    – mandatory use of masks (beyond what’s happening now)
    – no trans-Tasman or Pacific Island bubble
    – inward immigration on hold other than returnees (despite intense lobbying from the international tourist, tertiary education and horticultural sectors)

    As you note what’s harder is a vision beyond simply keeping the virus out. Rebuilding, adaptation, alternatives. It might happen but at snail’s pace – which is always too late – or it won’t go far enough to address the real issues. Its far too complex for those wedded to neoliberal understandings, indeed to capitalism in general. Exploitation of resources, both natural and human; the belief in competition and the ‘free’ market; the promotion of frivolous /senseless consumption; application of monetary theory to prop up a failing system. Put that in the too hard basket. And why would those with power want to question it anyway? And why would those with ‘comfortable’ lifeystyles choose to support it? And why would those who aspire to the dream fofeit the promise?

    And then there’s the social fallout. That has hardly begun.

    There are challenges ahead, for all of us.

  5. Freeze prices or fix the employment contracts by giving unions increased access to all employees.

    Wages have to rise in extremely creative ways just to cover expenses

  7. The r factor for the current virus is 1.4 spread – The r factor for the 202012/cov2019 version is 1.7 in the uk india europe and the usa so yes I agree the pandemic is a long way from over.

  8. Also it’s just a matter of time before the virus mutates to a strain that isn’t controlled by the current vaccines. Exactly like the Flu virus.

  9. the only godsend is that the borders will remain closed to foreigners for the foreseeable future. What she gonna do about that hmm prob fuck all but cant wait to see what the db does next

  10. Meanwhile over on Stuff, Brook Sabin argues we must open the borders soon as we can to be in the most “powerful position” over other countries, such as Australia. It’s something his best friend Jacinda must be working towards, because, you know, how could she not want to be rich and powerful? It’s proven that open borders and herd immunity doesn’t work, he sternly lectures. But could we reach herd immunity by October, he excitedly exclaims?
    Sigh. Journalists, hard at work for yous. I’d offer my proofing skills but they’d turn me down for not being white or rich enough. Maybe if I bought some of those 1950s style frames without any lens in?

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