We are going to need a bigger Boat, Plane & Tank – the inevitability of Fortress Aotearoa
If we are serious about an Independent Foreign Policy, we have to accept it is going to cost us a lot more.
I believe that the climate crisis means we need a vastly larger military to cope with civil disasters and if we are attempting to distance ourselves from China and America, we need to make a decision to dramatically lift what we spend on the military for purely defensive capacity.
How would we go about defending the realm of NZ and all our economic exclusive zone?
Currently we spend 1.5% of GDP on our entire military, to defend the full realm of NZ and pursue an independent foreign policy, I argue we need to push that up to 3%.
Note – NZ should only build up its military to defend our full territory (NZ islands, EEZ, Ross Dependency, Tokelau, Cook Islands and Niue). Any upgrade of our military is for purely defensive purposes, not for military adventure or invasions.
We can’t pull away from America and China and pretend there is no cost to being Independent.
With the climate crisis looming, we need that debate now.
We also have the geopolitics of it.
With China building a forward military base that could cut America off…
A Chinese politics specialist has called the deal between the Solomon Islands and China a “game-changer” saying New Zealand could be cut-off US military support.
…the real danger here is the Chinese Fishing Militia that will use it as a base to raid deep into fisheries.
We need to protect our fisheries.
If you are going to recognise the problem, the solution has to be legitimate.
I maintain we must have an independent foreign policy and that our stance must be friend to all, enemy to none, but we will urgently need to protect what is ours and acknowledge how the climate crisis will demand more civil emergency infrastructure and assets.
We need a complete review of our defence force and massive increase in spending.
The great comrade Chris Trotter warns us that Autarky can not be NZs future because we don’t have enough self-sufficiency built into NZs economy.
I agree that’s a problem, but it certainly isn’t an impossible problem to overcome.
Yes we need a basic pharmaceutical industry if we want to be self sufficient.
No I don’t think the collapse of western capitalism will occur fast enough via climate change to require a domestic weapons making facility but yes I believe we urgently need to raise our military spending to 3% of GDP.
Yes Māori we’re able to live here self sufficiently for almost a century but I’m not suggesting a subsistence existence.
The naked truth is that Fortress NZ will be forced upon us whether we are willing or not.
The catastrophic heat via pollution locked into our system goes so beyond what the ice core samples tell us that we are in uncharted territory.
Normally heat like this occurs over hundreds of thousands of years thanks to the angle of the Earth on its axis but we have done that in less than 3 centuries!
When the process occurs naturally over hundreds of thousands of years, the sudden and dramatic flip from burning hot to ice age can occur within decades. Create all that power within centuries and we turbo charge those flipping points in ways far more abrupt and damaging.
The rapid melting of the doomsday glacier in Antarctica and the shut down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will trigger irreversible environmental collapse within decades, not the end of the century.
There is no optimism on the climate front, just consequences now.
With such significant weather catastrophes occurring with ever more whithering destruction, other country’s will move to Autarky, will NZers cheers those planes landing with tourists while burning more climate gases or will they attack the Airports to shut them down?
Look at how every poll in NZ shows over 50% support for a total close of the border from a virus with the low mortality rate of Covid?
The climate crisis destroys environments and makes it more likely and probable that an Alpha virus far more lethal than Covid-19 will emerge – you think Kiwis will
While the globalists infect every political party in NZ, all it takes is one populist spark to breath Fortress NZ into life.
Post growth capitalism with true sustainability calls for Autarky on a burning planet than can’t take anymore globalism.
Muldoon thought big because he believed the oil shocks of the 70s was the future. He was wrong then but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong now.
The US Military Industrial complex simply solved the problem of an Oligopoly by seeding and backing harsh authoritarian regimes with lots of oil so that they could always access cheap petrol making Muldoon’s investment meaningless but The Military Industrial Complex can’t negotiate with the planet as we make it sicker and sicker!
The tyranny of distance has always been our malaise but on a burning planet of constant external shocks the Shire of NZ is looking very good right now.
‘Build that wall’ will soon become ‘defend that moat’.
In 1980, the time between billion dollar climate destruction events was 3 months.
It’s now 18 days.
There is a point where the next destructive weather event strikes before you can rebuild from the last one.
Fortress Aotearoa is coming whether we want it or not.
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Martyn, how do you propose we balance this need to which I agree with against some of those bonkers woke concepts like toxic masculinity? It’s not possible to have an effective fighting force without at least some elements of said toxic masculinity. To misquote Orwell, we sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.
Also, two other thoughts. First, the best defence is offence so perhaps discard that restriction as a different mindset and tactical set up would result and secondly, NZ would be a very very hard land to invade and hold given its terrain, especially if the type of fighting forces being deployed by the Ukrainian military were developed here. Small, highly mobile and well armed units would wreak havoc on an invading force. That said we will need air and naval strength first and foremost.
Last snipe, Aunty Helen’s call to disestablish our Air Force doesn’t look like a great idea any more does it?
” NZ would be a very very hard land to invade and hold given its terrain”.. With the weapons at the disposal of those who would take this country(most likely as a staging point to launch strikes against whomever got here second) would render our terrain irrelevant..
They actually don’t need to wipe out every little nest of resistance to take control.. Just the main ones.. Then they can ferret out the ones holed up in the bush using the technology available. Not a big issue for either the Yanks, or the Chinese… To even be attempting to paint NZ as being remotely capable of holding out to either of these aggressors is delusional… And if we do prove to be more trouble than they are prepared to put up with, then it wouldn’t be the first time for either of those groups have engaged in wholesale slaughter of civilians… Think a bit harder about the realities before committing half baked notions to print next time..
Looks like Yeti knows his shit – love the Orwell quote.
You are effectively saying that New Zealand should no longer ve an ally of Australia. How well would that work out. At the minimum it would mean the end of New Zealanders rights to freely live and work in Australia with no time limits. How many New Zealanders would think that is a reasonable trade off for being completely non aligned?
How many New Zealanders even want to be non aligned, similar to say, Chile?
Most New Zealanders feel we get benefits from being part of the West, with relatively few obligations. In fact generally we want the obligations. For instance, we want to be among the countries supporting Ukraine. It is quite clear that the only supporters of Ukraine are western nations, Ukraine has become a western cause.
Sweden and Finland, traditionally relatively neutral, have become much more part of the West in political terms. They were always so culturally.
Is this really the time we would want to change course? Who would support that? Would it even be 10% of the population?
No that’s not what he is saying. Martyn Bomber Bradbury knows full well that to have security in The South Pacific, Australia must brought into The Pacific Leaders Forum fucking kicking and screaming.
When Kevin Rudd was in-charge the papers used to go and on about how Rudd was sending his officials on junckets around the island but Australian ilander relations was good as back then. Then the liberals came in and now Peter Dutton is Defence minister. Just wonderful.
But the point is The Labour Party knows what they want to build. Its the terrible imaginative National Conservatives types that can’t seem to feel the changes in the wind.
NZ has a maximum of 20 years independence left before China invades. It could even happen this year. With China’s current internal turmoil Xi will be looking for a distraction fast which would be Taiwan. If China’s growing navy wipes out the United states navy (our only hope) then we will be New Xiland without doubt. It is obvious that we already have CCP operatives implanted in NZ who have been appeased by successive governments. Anyone who has upset them will be first on the list for organ harvesting. Good luck, get you affairs in order, don’t have all your financial eggs in one basket and be ready to leave at a moments notice. A sailing boat provides options because commercial airlines will be stopped immediately. NZ is the least safe place to be when Chinese imperialism finally takes hold. NZ is like the Channel Islands to Nazi Germany. Easy to take and such a punch in the eye to the West it will cause panic amongst the allies, however the allies will cut it loose and let it be over run. Too much risk to fight over a country miles from anywhere with a population who seems to think it is better than everyone else anyhow and who, could not even decide if the US was more of a friend than China? Good luck people, the clocks ticking. Nearly time to reap what you have all sown.
We can’t be certain that China will repeat the mistakes of The American Empire and get involved in endless ground wars.
I’ll concede my thesis by saying that Chinese naval bombardments and artillery is a far simpler way of conducting war on foreign shores. Most of it will be there’s anyway.
To be honest I think we, even the likes of Paul Buchanan and Anne-Marie Brady underestimate just how far Chinese planers have truely stitched everything up.
@exKiwi I disagree, while the Chinese has more ships than the US, they are still dwarfed by tonnage, range and capability. China cannot meaningfully project force outside of the first island chain because, aside from the vast majority of their ships having a range of less than 1600km, they cannot operate in a conflict zone against a peer military without land based air cover. This limits China to being a regional power, a threat to Taiwan yes, but not a threat to NZ (outside of asymmetric warfare) SO LONG as the US is willing to play backstop in the pacific.
NZ is less like the Channel Islands and more like the Falklands.
Also as I’ve pointed out before China has serious existential problems. Demographically it is the fastest ageing country in history, with the biggest sex imbalance in history. Intergenerational wealth of the middle class is being wiped out by the collapsing property ponzi scheme. Economically China is no longer the cheap manufacturer, but neither is it yet high value added (relative to the likes of Taiwan, S Korea, Japan etc). It’s economic power relies on a globalised access to markets. It imports the vast majority of energy requirements from the Persian Gulf while being unable to guarantee safe passage should the US choose to blockade supply routes. The belt and road is blocked to Europe by sanctions on Russia and even a trading alliance with Russia does not yet have the land-based infrastructure required to supply a significant part of Chinese energy needs.
This all was before the pandemic and rolling zero-covid lockdowns.
China’s current model in demographics, finance, geopolitics and trade is failing. Xi cannot guarantee economic growth, keep the lights on, or win a war with the US. This why we are seeing a rise in ethnocentric ultranationalism. It is how the CCP keeps control when they can no longer improve quality of life for their people. However this does make war in the pacific far more likely.
I’d review this position if late stage capitalism, the corruption, economic and political disfunction in the US escalates prevents it from being, or caring to be, a viable military or trade power or if Russia breaks the European consensus on sanctions and energy supply. Id also review it if India throws in with Russia and/or China.
However IF the US can maintain internal integrity and overseas alliances, all it has to do is containment of Russia and China, which is well within its power and wait. Although doubtless as with Russia, some in the State Department will be actively looking to expedite matters.
You need to google China’s Type 003 Aircraft carrier currently under construction. It’s the same size as a US carrier. Things are changing fast. What ever you thought of Russia and China needs to move faster than the change happening right now.
Well politicians are not very good at imagination instead fling back on the same old political and economic systems.
So the left to has this same basic flaw that all proposals for change falls back on the same basic structures of society and the same basic instructions.
And thus the basic Lego blocks of The New Zealand Defence Force is always there in the bucket waiting to be installed.
It’s not so much a philosophical issue rather than a definitional one.
So a capitalist definition is the private ownership of all assets
And a definition for feudalism is the dominant notional hierarchy falls on the peasant in exchange for homage, labour, a share of production and military protection.
I will concede that no society can be consistent with its stated economic and political definitions.
Y’know when did Maori stop being tribal?
When did the European settlers stop being fudal lords?
Or when did settlers stop being colonizers?
Can we not provide contemporary examples of kiwis being tribal settler colonialists all at the same time?
I’m asking at what exact point does New Zealand go from a capitalist society to a pacivist one?
Plenty of people can give exact definition of a capitalist society or whatever Monikor is not so much idealism but a practical one.
Thus our aims would be immediately recognisable to Nga Puhi raiding Taranaki or Settlers laying Seige to Waikato or The Anzacs in Gallipoli.
These assaults didn’t stop with a change in definitions. But where exactly does the definition of warfare change from a contemporary reference to an historical one?
Warfare has remained as a part of antiquity and so the modern world but does warfare have a place amongst Interstellar nations?
What happens when these kinds of tactics are not plying the world’s oceans but starships in orbit around the moon?
Can the NZDF be expected to seize not only island chains but storiods and planets?
Is it even feisible?
What would there stages be?
Objectives?
What the equipment be to ferry soldiers around?
What would they be?
And to what ends?
And why?
Of course Interstellar warfare isn’t going to be the end of warfare itself but rather the beginnings of not only pacivists but the reimagining of settlers and colonizers. For once the terrain will be inhabited.
I think the idea of removing all warlike capabilities from NZDF is missplaced and far to early by any stretch of the imagination alongside Calvary charges and castles.
But the main argument for a balanced force structure of about 30,000 NZDF personal (so around 9 billion a year for food, material and different types of platforms), is that any nation that achieves a unilateral world superpower status gains such a massive advantage it renders all peace and pacifism pointless.
With a massive fleet roaming the oceans there’s no need to deploy land troops. America’s mistake, and every other Empire before it.
The real issue here is that kiwis are locked into narrow views and can’t see how majority rules (first past the post) has institutionalised them.
We live in a Mixed Members Proportional democracy where if mean Defence spending is to be $10 billion a year or 3% GDP then the economy is going to grow to accommodate not just defence but trans and disabled, middle class or whatever Monikor is all going to have to have there fair share of the budget.
I maintain we must have an independent foreign policy and that our stance must be friend to all, enemy to none
I wonder if RocketLab would compromise this?
Don’t the US launch their spy satellites from Mahia?
Just be nice and China will leave us alone.
Tui billboard.
strap a cpl of nukes on a rocketlab rocket – job done!
Bojo and Putesy are continuing to throw out threats at each other like a couple of pre-pubescent teenagers.
“I’m gonna getcha!”
“I’m gonna getcha MORE!”
“I’m gonna wipe the floor with ya! Coz I got friends!”
“I’m gonna ‘nihillate ya, with a biggestest most radioactive tsunami wave eva!! Over your whole country! Like maybe Ireland…”
“You stole our fish ‘n chips!”
Oh, and “Clear off and eat your porridge!” Those last are the EXACT WORDS: https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/clear-off-back-to-your-island-and-eat-your-porridge-russian-politician-hits-out-at-britain-in-bizarre-rant-as-tv-host-says-uk-stole-fish-and-chips-41606103.html
Also:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-tv-threatens-underwater-poseidon-nuke-uk/
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/russian-state-tv-shows-clips-simulating-ireland-being-wiped-out-by-nuclear-weapons-1.4867631
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/watch-russian-state-tv-simulates-how-underwater-nuclear-attack-would-destroy-northern-ireland-with-500m-tsunami-41607531.html
“Dmitry Kiselyov, Putin’s propagandist-in-chief, said “A single launch, Boris, and there is no England anymore. Once and for all”, so Scotland is fine then? Phew.”
From UK Defence Journo George Allison
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-tv-threatens-britain-with-nuclear-missile-strikes/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/05/02/kiselyov-to-putin-launch-status-6-cobalt-nuke-bomb-to-uk/
And there is also this:
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-britain-trolls-ukraine/2022/05/02/id/1068100/
Trying to make sense of the above is mind-spinningly bizarre, it is insane.
How is it that those neanderthal pups were ever allowed to acquire the means to destroy the planet.
It’s beyond my comprehension that we, the people of the world, have allowed this situation to develop.
The average kiwi voter has never cared. Well done.