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  1. All social indicators will deteriorate in the next 3 years. The degree to which is dependent on how effective Winston First is in preventing major changes being made and therefore maintaining the incrementalism that conservatives love so much.

    The folley of tax cuts is a two-edged sword – first they are unaffordable in the current economic environment and therefore the government will need to borrow or slash govenment services that are already pretty skinny (have you tried to contact Work & Income or IRD recently?) & second – tax cuts are easy to make and are generally politically positive (especially in the short tern) but very hard to claw back (in terms of creating new taxes to bridge the fiscal shortfall or increase again at a later point).

    But that is what the majority of Kiwis voted for eh?!?

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