US Economy in recession, Capitalism in denial & the shiver of thousands queuing for Airport jobs
U.S. teetering on brink of recession as GDP contracts in second quarter
Second-quarter GDP decreases at 0.9% rate
Inventories account for large decline in GDP
Consumer spending slows; business investment contracts
Weekly jobless claims fall 5,000 to 256,000
On the Working Group last week, Brilliant Economist and political commentator Bernard Hickey was very upbeat about Capitalism’s ability to bounce back from Covid and his optimism is shared by many, many commentators all far smarter than I.
I however remain unconvinced of their optimism.
Optimists argue the natural tipping points within glorious capitalism where price destruction occurs when consumers can’t afford the product will automatically kick in and tame inflation.
This is what we are seeing in America and the slump in gas prices, because people can’t afford to pay any more.
But that’s only part of the story and the Optimists seem to be holding onto this classic tenant of Capitalistic faith in the belief it will rebalance the market.
I disagree.
Yes prices must drop if consumers can’t to buy it any longer, but that’s not the only issue here. On top of price destruction you have supply chains severing and snapping and collapsing altogether.
Viruses and their continued outbreaks via overcrowded conditions are expanding their ability to move on top of supply chains being decimated by the effects of catastrophic weather events.
These are supply side shocks ON TOP OF price destruction. That makes this a unique recipe for hyper inflation.
People are turning away from petrol despite powerful upward wage pressure, despite low unemployment, despite the military propping up hideous human rights abusing middle eastern regimes, despite being forced to live in cities built for cars, despite a multi-billion dollar propaganda campaign via advertising to convince you freedom is linked to a climate crisis polluting vehicle – DESPITE ALL THAT – punters are still fleeing a tsunami of inflation increase every week.
As global capitalism brings back all the shitty, dangerous, cheap jobs from their collapsing supply chains, workers in the west aren’t getting ahead! They are simply being flooded by more cheap, dangerous, shitty jobs!
There’s a reason the West exported them in the first place!
As the Stock Market soars on the belief the Fed can’t stop them ever, there is a total disconnect in reality between the Financial Economy and the Real Economy.
We didn’t get a tsunami of inflation post 2008 as Central Banks pumped $25Trillion into the markets to stave off a global recession and global supply chains stretched into the deepest, darkest, most de-unionised workforces China could provide but the level of interest rates they now must hike things to will ignite the event horizon of a black hole of debt.
Despite the lowest unemployment numbers, despite high wage pressures, the naked reality is that the inflation shockwave hitting the prices of everything is terrifying the consumer who is feeling it every day. The simple truth is those who don’t have the privilege of working from home are not being paid enough to keep afloat.
That there were 3000 people at an Airport Jobs fair in NZ at a time of such low unemployment in this country is a red flag that people are just holding on by their fingertips and when Russia cuts gas to Europe in 6 months, shit is going to get real.
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Gas prices are also a reflection that production has increased. Perhaps rather corpulent Americans ( gross generalisation I know) getting out of their cars is not a bad thing. Even when prices were at their highest demand was still not back to pre COVID levels ( Shanghai and Beijing being shut down helps) hence a reluctance to invest in more production.
Martyn why do you assume prices will keep increasing? I am not so sure. I am also not convinced that Russia will cut off the gas that is helping pay for its war. Crude will fluctuate but I think they will need more than oil to pay the bills. Do you think Putin anticipated it would take this long to achieve what he wants?
As for capitalism itself well I guess as a true model it’s never tested properly. There is the theory and then there are the crooks that change the rules by socialising the losses. It’s got to the point where apparently it’s outrageous to actually have a financing cost on borrowed money.
Wage growth over the last 30 years vs production increases: flat
Over due NZ student debt = NZD$1.6 billion
Household debt = $300 billion
Bonds: unpayable
Volatility is just client multiplied by price. There is zero value here, it’s all INFLATION!!!
I know why. Students and low wage workers are going to be scape goated. It so predictable I could even say it, call it out and you’d still fall over it like what happened???
I did a hurt myself??? Whaaaaaaaaaa.
Students will be blamed for lack of innovation
Vulnerable workers blamed for not wanting to work.
Renters will be blamed for not paying rent.
Woman blamed for declines in the marriage rate.
So on, and so on, and so on.
All an economics degree is for, is so academic interlectual elites of the softest area of studys in the world can go all around the economics text book so they can arrive at its the next generations fault for absolutely screwing up the economy.
They, like you, ignore, financing, insurance, and real estate just so we can keep the debt narrative going a little bit longer.
There ain’t much else to do but get drunk, stones and get gout.
“As the Stock Market soars on the belief the Fed can’t stop them ever”
Wut? I mean like WUT? You can’t be this clueless, I’ve been here far too long. The Fed works for Wall Street! They will literally buy assets with printed money to prop it up if needed (see the 2008 GFC). The Fed is doing everything possible to keep the bubble alive! Never bet against the Fed. People are buying stocks because they know they are a great inflation hedge – the Fed will print dollars to buy Apple stock if needed.
Stock markets, banks printing cash, finance capitalism….all good until you realize that no value is being added. Tim Morgan at https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/ makes the insightful comment that every single thing that we produce or do utilizes energy. You cannot perform a single economic task without the use of energy. Could be people power, horse, oil etc. The fantasy we live by is our concept that the value we ascribe to money can be divorced from energy. Which is why Germany is in such deep trouble, they have so much money, can print it, can do whatever, but without energy in the form of gas and oil their money counts for doodly squat.
Yes, we should have retained ownership and control of our fossil fuel industry.
Remember when Trump was president and there was an insurrection, and 2 impeachments, none since, must have been a coincidence.
Remember when black lives did matter prior to Trumps presidency and after his presidency, must have been a coincidence.
Huh???