Unemployment freezes while debt stress rises while Reserve Bank warns of global risk
Unemployment data shows real weakness behind the headline rate
Unemployment data released today by Statistics New Zealand shows ongoing weakness in the labour market, with falling employment, falling hours of work, and nearly half of all workers getting a pay rise less than inflation, said NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi Economist Craig Renney.
“While the unemployment rate number stayed at 5.1%, the number of people working full-time fell by 45,000 while the number working part-time increased by 25,000. People can’t find all the work they need to get by,” said Renney.
“This data demonstrates that there are now 37,000 more unemployed people than at the last election. Māori unemployment is now at 10.5% and Pacific unemployment is at 10.8%. Employment fell in manufacturing, construction, retail, education, and health care. There are now nearly 3 million fewer hours being worked in the economy.
“The weakness of current economic growth is also being reflected in the wage data. Total weekly gross earnings rose by less than inflation at 2.4% annually. 41% of workers saw no pay rise at all. It’s clear that workers are struggling to get the wage increases they need to keep up with the cost of living.
“Youth unemployment continues to rise. There are now 70,700 15–24-year-olds unemployed and 96,600 are not in employment, education or training. There is no plan to help these younger workers, and they are bearing the brunt of employment change.
“Without changes to the Government’s economic approach, things will likely get worse. In 2022 New Zealand was sixth in the OECD rankings for unemployment. We are now 18th.
“The Budget this month will likely see forecasts of unemployment rising in the future. It’s time to change course and deliver policies that ensure good work and fair pay for all,” said Renney.
The Unemployment rate froze at 5.1% but that is nothing to cheer…
…this while debt stress reaches new highs…
Overdue home loan payments reach eight-year high – Centrix
The proportion of home loan payments past due is at the highest level since at least 2017, new Centrix data shows.
The data released Monday showed 24,000 home loan accounts with payments owing, up 700 on the previous month and 7 percent on the year before.
…as half a million need food banks monthly…
Over half a million Kiwis accessing food banks per month – survey
More than half a million Kiwis are accessing food banks each month to get by.
…all this while the Reserve Bank warns of turmoil…
Reserve Bank warns of increased risk on back of US tariffs
…all this while more red flags are waving, as Bernard Hickey notes…
NZ economy sliding into wintry deep freeze
- Growth in our housing-market-with-bits-tacked-on of an economy is stalling and sliding back into a deep freeze as the winter months approach, despite 200 basis points of rate cuts and pledges from PM Christopher Luxon to ‘go for growth.’
- The Government’s ever-tighter spending policies and its investment freeze since early 2024 are combining with fears about the global economy to depress construction sector activity, housing market activity, retail sales and business investment.
- NZ Steel’s CEO Mark Malpass says1 he’s surprised the Government has not stepped up with extra infrastructure investment to soften the effects of last year’s recession.
- Real estate agents report this month that the housing market upturn seen since the Reserve Bank started cutting rates has stalled in recent weeks, with growing Fear Of Over Paying (FOOP) holding buyers back from clearing ample unsold houses on the market.
- The Motor Industry Association reports new and used car sales in the first four months of 2025 of just 70,227, down 37.4% from 112,129 in 2022, down 15% from 82,599 in 2023 and down 13.2% from 80,970 in when interest rates were 200 basis points higher 2024.
- Oranga Tamariki has detailed a 60% increase in reports of concern about children it monitored in the quarter to 27,170, vs the same quarter a year ago, citing “social and economic factors such as an increase in cost of living, an increase in the number of children living in material hardship, and an increase in the unemployment rate.”
…couple of things.
We are in a lot more trouble than we imagine.
The social carnage of economic malaise will start to bite hard this Winter.
This Budget amputation by a dead eyed Free Market acolyte like Nicola Willis will explode this social carnage.
We really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, shouldn’t be allowing the banks to lower their capital requirements right now.
Austerity budgets by Nicola Willis have hollowed out public services for tax cuts we can’t afford!
They have money for the military, Tobacco subsidies and wealthy landlord tax loop holes, but no money for the poor, for women, workers, the disabled, beneficiaries, the homeless, the renters or the environment.
We are a better people than this.
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Stop making a fuss. As I understand it, the Minister of Finance has ordered the Reserve Bank to cut bank capital adequacy ratios so that interest rates will fall to zero and money will become free. You can put another rental on the Diners Card and retire early.
Wow, that really points to increased productivity, doesn’t it? NOT!
Three Million FEWER hours being worked is not increased productivity.
Those people who always bemoan our poor level of productivity (Seymour, Willis etc.), think that what they are doing is the answer. This perfectly illustrates that our right wing govts. are not the best managers of the economy.
Giving tax cuts to people who don’t need them and shouldn’t expect them, is not the way to increase prosperity overall. The greedies have won again but only temporarily. The top 10% cannot spend enough to keep their businesses going. They need the help of the rest of us. But what we don’t have, we can’t spend.
With van Velden’s efforts as well, we will have less and less to spend.
So good on you Nicola and Brooke, you’ve cut your own throats.
Willis will never win a seat and van Velden could be ‘doing a Dutton’ at the next election. Clever girls.
I hope you are right these nasty women need to be gone they make the CIS white males look like kindergarten kids .
What infuriates me is that we did this before.
‘Ruthenasia’ of the 1990s when austerity caused growth in; unemployment, poverty, bankruptcy, suicides, mental illness and crime.
It was intended to make rich people richer and it did so. It still is.
Insanity is repeating the same actions and expecting it to have a different result.
Coalition politicians are not insane, neither are their landlord and corporation donors. They are the predators who feed upon the docile flock.
If you voted National, ACT or NZ First are you now feeling the benefits? If you support them again you deserve everything they do to you.
The opposition may have flaws but it does not want to devour you.
We at the top will never stop smiling. We are safe above the hoi polloi. It is the NZAO way to have a safety net for appropriate people. Life is like a trapeze act really we say philosophically. We have just moved the safety net, so it is under our high-flying act. Watch our female trapesists swing showing off their prowess in public and even more in private when they can be fast-moving doing their unique down-deals on rival women!
I’m doing my bit under this iniquitous GST system. I have had my roof replaced so I don’t have any leaks. Maintaining my home and also what is infrastructure as part of the nation’s ‘books’. I am paying $2.800 and a bit to the Government for this. There is in theory no reason for the government to be asking for money from me for my house maintenance yet still complaining it is short of money! I have also managed to overlook renewing my car registration and paid $500 for two tickets with close dates for that piece of paper.
What with fines, and swingeing GST, the actual flow of money amongst NZs is severely curtailed to the repressive officials of central and local gummint and their strong-arm henchmen who carry out privately what used to be government duties and services.
No wonder the country’s grapes are withering on the vine. Give me better oversight, fewer taxes that hit the bottom feeders. Go for the bigger ones, have a set tax of 5% for all on all income and investments apart from a modest home, and the set percentage will sort them out. So simple 5% on $100.000 annual salary = $5,000. On $1,000,000 it brings in $50,000 and no quibbling, it is a low basic tax.
The GST comes down to 10% with 5% going to govt coffers, and 5% to the local Council for maintenance and capital expenditure and business development. Not for buildings though or roads. To schemes that provide work for everybody of some hours per week for retired and disabled, and variety for the young and mentoring or skill specialisation for the middle aged.
Everybody does something at all ages, (communism! how dreadful is the response) – if nothing else they can be in a performance of
The Humming Chorus by Puccini from Madam Butterfly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbQDY0i7_88
That would be better than
The Slaves Chorus from Nabucco (beautiful and dramatic but so sad).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EesVtBKgu4g
Let’s have simple and happy, try for it.