Ummmmm, what if we are really really really wrong about climate change?
The Washington Post is concerned…
4 hottest days ever observed raise fears of a planet nearing ‘tipping points’
As global temperatures spiked to their highest levels in recorded historyon Monday, ambulances were screaming through the streets of Tokyo, carrying scores of people who had collapsed amid an unrelenting heat wave. A monster typhoon was emerging from the scorching waters of the Pacific Ocean, which were several degrees warmer than normal. Thousands of vacationers fled the idyllic mountain town of Jasper, Canada ahead of a fast-moving wall of wildfire flames.
By the end of the week — which saw the four hottest days ever observed by scientists — dozens had been killed in the raging floodwaters and massive mudslides triggered by Typhoon Gaemi. Half of Jasper was reduced to ash. And about 3.6 billion people around the planet had endured temperatures that would have been exceedingly rare in a world without burning fossil fuels and other human activities, according to an analysis by scientists at the group Climate Central.
These extraordinary global temperatures marked the culmination of an unprecedented global hot streak that has stunned even researchers who spent their whole careers studying climate change.
…what if we have actually been wrong about climate change all this time?
What if climate change isn’t linear?
What if it is exponential?
What if the temperature readings that are almost 6 sigma out of normal standard deviation evidence not of linear warming but exponential growth instead?
Meaning that instead of catastrophic weather by the end of the century, we are looking at within a decade?
It’s happening right now…
Antarctic temperatures rise 10C above average in near record heatwave
Ground temperatures across great swathes of the ice sheets of Antarcticahave soared an average of 10C above normal over the past month, in what has been described as a near record heatwave.
While temperatures remain below zero on the polar land mass, which is shrouded in darkness at this time of year, the depths of southern hemisphere winter, temperatures have reportedly reached 28C above expectations on some days.
The globe has experienced 12 months of record warmth, with temperatures consistently exceeding the 1.5C rise above preindustrial levels that has been touted as the limit to avoiding the worst of climate breakdown.
Michael Dukes, the director of forecasting at MetDesk, said that while individual daily high temperatures were surprising, far more significant was the average rise over the month.
Climate scientists’ models have long predicted that the most significant effects of anthropogenic climate change would be on polar regions, “and this is a great example of that”, he said.
“Usually you can’t just look at one month for a climate trend but it is right in line with what models predict,” Dukes added. “In Antarctica generally that kind of warming in the winter and continuing in to summer months can lead to collapsing of the ice sheets.”
…the research suggests we are looking at an enormous cascade failure of the biosphere, the speed and severity of which will trigger damaging shocks to global capitalism and democracy.
We are facing the hottest year in 125 000 years and the only response from our new Far Right Government is ‘More Cows’!
There is a point where the enormity of what is coming triggers an activism that is far more militant and makes demands from the Political Establishment that splinters the current MMP spectrum…
Climate change: Ocean warming threatens multi-million dollar losses for NZ fishing sector
Climate change could spell millions of dollars in losses for our commercial fishing sector, with new research suggesting ocean warming could soon reach a tipping point for catch rates.
A pair of new studies highlights how gradually rising sea temperatures and marine heatwaves could have big impacts for the multi-billion-dollar industry – even if warming waters brings some benefits in the short term.
One of the papers, led by Associate Professor Hanny John Mediodia, now based at the University of the Philippines, explored links between warming and catch data on three species and fishing methods in Aotearoa.
…we are the Frog and the first bubbles are bubbling to the surface.
This week meat prices have increased dramaticly due to shortages due to climate related reasons according to farmers .At last they are seeing the reality of the looming crisis they have helped manufacture as we all have .Next the government will be paying them to move off the looming number of unproductive farms .Soon we will be blaming Maori because they allowed settlers to denude the land and farm massive numbers of animals .When the land is completly useless we will return the desert to Maori as a treaty settlement .
Maori burned more of nz than the Europeans did. Perhaps the government could lodge a claim with the Waitangi tribunal.
The sooner the experts give specifics as in – this is when this is going to happen and this is what it will do to humanity as a result – or at the very least – when this happens then this is what it will do to humanity – when experts give certainty to their science – that is when we will really see surefire movement….
Otherwise, right now we are all just humans living on a planet that we are being told is facing catastrophe because of us. What are we really supposed to do about that!
The a science is crystal clear, AO.
Insisting on certainty around timeframes, is about as ridiculous as insisting on certainty about the known risks of cancer caused by smoking, drinking etc, before taking such advice seriously.
We all know what we need to do – the science has been telling us for decades.
What is also clear is that we can no longer wait for our political “leaders” to tell us how to react to this end-stage fossil capitalism.
The terms climate change, climate crisis will soon been supplanted by a far more accurate description: climate panic.
It is going to be far worse than you can possibly imagine.
Science is never crystal clear, this much is gospel. As for certainly, well, there are no shortage of predictions climate scientists have made for decades now as a result of climate modelling. And these modelling results are always in the news, furthermore, they might even influence government decision making. Now, to be fair, I haven’t really paid much attention to them over the years, but that’s my mistake. It is high time that we all paid attention to this science. If we all really want surety, therefore change, then these models, the predictions from them and all other predictions need to be front and centre in the news for us to know, for us to examine, for us to follow, because this level of information, and the understanding it will generate – this will result in change, for sure.
“What are we really supposed to do about that!”
An answer to that might well depend on a couple of things. Whether science has any objective truth, any legitimacy, any authority, any certainty. Or is in this instance, climate science just another opportunity to spread disinformation? Global heating? Nah… its just a hoax.
Most ordinary folk wouldn’t really have a clue about “the science”. How could they? Do they have expertise in the areas that constitute climate science? Or the connected sciences? Yes, its all in the public domain for all to see. But few have the capability to grasp what “the science” is saying, either technically or in a more intuitive sense in joining the dots. And a good many simply don’t believe “the science” anyway. Or won’t believe it. Afterall, if “the science” is correct many folk will be facing big changes to things they have for some time taken for granted, dare I say, feel they are entitled to. Who’d want to believe in “the science” when its telling you your life will be turned upside down – or most likely the lives of your children and grandchildren – in ways yet to be determined, and in many ways localized, but related to some combination of temperature changes, severe weather events, rising sea levels, the spread of tropical infectious diseases into cooler climates, including parasitical cridders, the need to modify agricultural practices, energy production and use, consumer habits and oh yes, the elephant in the room, economic activity. Its all to hard to comprehend for most, and when “we” all have skin in the game so to speak who wants to believe it anyway.
Who are the “we” / us” referring to anyway? All humans? Ethiopians facing famine? Those billions on the Indian sub-continent, for the most part, aspiring to a life-style still out of their grasp. Well-off folk in the so called developed world – although if another type of science is to believed a good many in wealthy parts of the world are increasingly not so well-off.
What should “we” be doing about it? I wouldn’t necessarily be looking to political mechanisms. Politics, power and vested interests are inseparable. It might well come down to individual agency. If you have a conscience do what you can. Changes in individual behavior may well help. New sustainable practices might emerge. But even then, given most of “us” are blind to consequence, the catastrophe may well still engulf “us’ all, crashing down on most of “us” a bit like Hokusai’s great wave.
As climate change is man made then the ‘who’, ‘we’, or ‘us’ is human kind. So what component of human kind is the real problem? Is it the mere existence of people, as in, far too many people, or is it what we are doing? Once we drill down on this, we understand the ‘us’ question. And all this is just the starter for ten…..
Open your ears , take your blinkers off, and listen to the science. I think it is becoming plainly obvious that the change is exponential.
I also think that if you look at the number of large weather events occurring on a regular you can see this without having to be a scientist.
Just yesterday it was disclosed that the CO2 monitor on Baring Head has recorded it’s highest ever annual level. This would indicate that in spite of the best efforts of some countries no progress is being made. Our government obviously wears the same hat that you do AO.
Sorry, but calling for surety, basically calling for science, to be front and centre at that, is anything but closing my mind off to it.
Climate change has to be exponential. Every natural system is inter-related. Nothing happens all by itself, unaffected by other systems. Equal and opposite reactions and all that.
There will be no time to adapt at this rate.
Depressing thought eh?
Yes this exponential growth effect makes sense, for example when the climate naturally switches as it naturally rotates within the ice age , which we would be moving from the interglacial warm wet into the cool dry (humanity has only existed in the warm wet period). But because carbon dioxide has been increasing exponentially, 400ppmilllion it has disrupted the Milankovitch cycle, so no ice age. The albido effect is exponential too ….so yeah you are probably right. Too late to hold that climate change back we, and all creatures who live in this environment will be facing extinction. Ice ages and interglacial periods were much more gradual naturally but because of all the carbon we are pumping into the environment at a 100 times faster rate than has previously naturally occurred changes will be too fast for us to adapt so it will be a very different earth in the not too distant future and the naturally occurring transition into the cool dry interglacial won’t be happening. Unless something like an asteroid crashing into earth, or all the volcanoes erupting at the same time or nuclear war…then the trajectory we are currently on changes but equally as destructive to life as we know it.
I don’t know why we are reading about this in a blog tho as surely scientists have made computer models demonstrating this, and also taking into account the stopping of the AMOC due to too much fresh water, from melting ice sheets which has the effect of freezing Europe etc .. shouldn’t all this be front page news????? I wonder how all that balances out in the short term, meaning humanity’s remaining existence. Which might nasty brutal and short on any cursory investigation on the internet. James Lovelock’s advice was make hay while the sun shines. It’s too late to change any of it so probably why it is steady as she goes into catastrophe – more plastics, more carbon all of which are exponentially increasing too. Crazy or what.
Agree AO. It is like when a country goes to war.The person in the street has little or no say in the decision and once committed you can go along with the majority or hold your own and possibly suffer.
I am sure Israel, Russia ,USA,and all the other warring nations are not looking at carbon credits in the battlefield.
Boeing has overc7000 new planes on order so someone does not think the end is near.
People will believe it when the people responsible for the crisis are paying for it.
Ie – everyone with the biggest bank accounts from the Top Down.
Until then it is legitimately being treated like more consequence dodging by the globalists at the very least, if not their next gold mine and play for global fascism.
In the days of Noah they said there would never be a flood since it had never rained up to then. We are told in Lu 21:26 “Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.”
The last decision on Earth is over worship and their are only 2 sides. Rev 13:7-8, 14:6-9.
While it has been easy for secular people to ridicule the idea that such events could ever happen fear is a extreme motive and the loudest voices especially those trying to force their views on others will be wrong as love is the only motive God uses to get worship.
Oh Bonnie, this is so sad.
Fundamentalist Christians are excitedly anticipating the end of the world because it is “gods plan”. Some are actively trying to hasten the end of civilisation.
Perhaps an all-powerful loving god wouldn’t be so damn nasty, because the suffering coming over the horizon will surpass any horror we have previously experienced.
If this is god’s punishment on the human species because not enough of us love him, then he is more of an arsehole than I had imagined.
God will not save us, because god does not exist.
Meanwhile, enjoy your imaginary friend.